1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for unilateral trading is neutral, indicating that the short - term market for PX/PTA/PF/PR is highly volatile due to external funds [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The polyester production cuts are gradually being implemented, and the downstream terminals are gradually on holiday. The cost side fluctuates around the Iran situation. The PX fundamentals have no obvious changes in the short - term, but the medium - term outlook is good. The PTA near - term supply and demand tend to accumulate, but the long - term processing fee is expected to improve. The polyester load is accelerating its decline, and the demand before the Spring Festival is weak. The polyester bottle - chip processing fee rebounds [1][2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Price and Basis - The report presents figures on TA and PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, including TA main contract & basis & inter - period spread trends, PX main contract trend & basis & inter - period spread, PTA East China spot basis, and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [7][8][13]. Upstream Profit and Spread - Figures show PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit, reflecting the profit and spread situation of upstream products [15][19]. International Spread and Import - Export Profit - It includes figures such as the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit, which are related to international spreads and import - export profitability [21][23]. Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Figures display the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX operating rates in China and Asia, reflecting the upstream production status [24][27][29]. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report shows the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, and various warehouse receipt inventories of PTA, PX, and PF, reflecting the inventory situation [35][37][38]. Downstream Polyester Load - Figures present the production and sales of filaments and short - fibers, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, and the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, texturing machines, and printing and dyeing machines, as well as the inventory days of filament factories, reflecting the downstream production and inventory status [43][45][57]. PF Detailed Data - It includes figures on 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, and the price difference between raw and recycled materials, providing detailed information on PF [65][66][69]. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show the polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, and the price difference between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, as well as the inter - month spreads of bottle chips, presenting detailed PR fundamentals [81][83][89].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - PX: Unilateral price is expected to follow the upward trend with cost support from rising oil prices, but pay attention to the implementation of the decline in downstream PTA and polyester operations. Consider long PX and short PTA, long SC and short PX hedging, and focus on the positive spread of monthly contracts [6]. - PTA: The unilateral valuation is expected to be strong following the cost - end trends of crude oil and PX. High processing fees, so pay attention to reducing processing fee positions. The supply increase is limited, and the actual implementation of polyester production cuts needs to be observed. The market is expected to be in tight balance this week [7]. - MEG: Unilateral short - term strong rebound, close short positions. Pay attention to the implementation of spring maintenance of coal - chemical ethylene glycol plants [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PX - **Price and Market Data**: Yesterday, the PX futures main contract closed at 7262, down 20 with a decline of 0.27%. The PX5 - 9 spread closed at 60, up 2. The PX CFR China spot price was 897.33 dollars/ton, down 1.34. The PX - naphtha spread was 339.75 dollars/ton, down 6.17 [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Due to geopolitical tensions, oil prices have risen, pushing up Asian spot prices. However, with the expected decline in Chinese polyester plant activities in the coming weeks, PX spot prices have gained little. Some small polyester producers with annual capacities between 250,000 and 1.2 million tons will stop production from mid - January to late February. The overall PX supply is loose with high domestic plant operating rates and expected high imports in December [2][3][6]. - **Trading Situation**: On January 14, there were multiple bids and offers for February and March delivery in the Asian PX Platts market, and one transaction was completed. The naphtha price fell in the late session, and the PX price also declined, with a February Asian spot trading at 896 dollars/ton [4]. PTA - **Price and Market Data**: Yesterday, the PTA futures main contract closed at 5116, down 24 with a decline of 0.47%. The PTA5 - 9 spread closed at 46, down 6. The PTA East China spot price was 5072 yuan/ton, up 12. The PTA processing fee was 320.45 yuan/ton, down 52.31 [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: A 3 - million - ton PTA plant in East China has restarted, a 2.5 - million - ton plant is expected to stop at the end of the month, a 3.6 - million - ton plant is reducing its load and will stop for maintenance tomorrow, and a 1.25 - million - ton plant in South China is expected to stop in the next two days and restart in early March. The PTA operating rate is currently 78%, and the load increase space is limited in January. Polyester production cut plans have increased, and the polyester load is expected to drop to 84 - 85% at the end of January [4][7]. MEG - **Price and Market Data**: Yesterday, the MEG futures main contract closed at 3867, up 52 with an increase of 1.36%. The MEG5 - 9 spread closed at - 112, up 6. The MEG spot price was 3718 yuan/ton, up 36 [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The short - term unilateral price is expected to rebound strongly. Attention should be paid to the implementation of spring maintenance of coal - chemical ethylene glycol plants [7]. Polyester - **Production and Sales**: A major polyester manufacturer in Xiaoshan has announced maintenance plans for 6 polyester plants around the Spring Festival. Another major manufacturer in Tongxiang plans to arrange maintenance for 3 plants after the Spring Festival. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are generally weak today, with an average sales rate of 40 - 50% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber are highly differentiated, with an average sales rate of 72% by 3:00 pm [5]. Clothing - **Export Data**: In 2025, the cumulative textile and clothing exports were 2.10267 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9%. Among them, textile exports were 1.02047 trillion yuan, an increase of 1%, and clothing exports were 1.0822 trillion yuan, a decrease of 4.4% [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - fiber: Short - term sideways market, medium - term weakening. The current situation shows a continuation of upstream - downstream contradictions, with short - term high - level sideways trends. The actual output of short - fiber has increased, and the strategy of going long on PX/TA and short on PF should be continued [3][8]. - Bottle chips: Sideways with a weakening tendency. There is also a continuation of upstream - downstream contradictions, short - term high - level sideways. The actual supply of bottle chips in January is expected to increase first and then decrease, and the supply - demand situation will gradually improve from late January to the end of the month. A light - position long spread strategy can be considered at low prices [2][10]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Short - fiber (PF) 3.1.1 This Week's View - Supply: Factory operating rates have increased to 98.5%. Some factories plan to shut down before the Spring Festival, mostly around the end of January [8]. - Demand: Domestic terminal orders are weakening, and the yarn, weaving, and grey fabric sectors are reducing their loads. Terminal restocking increased during the low - price promotions last weekend, but overall sales were weak during the week. Short - fiber has a nominal inventory reduction but a physical inventory build - up, with the inventory index rising to 8.9 days (+1.2 days) [8]. - View: The upstream - downstream contradictions continue, and it will be in a short - term high - level sideways trend. The short - fiber and bottle chips have followed the price increases in a timely manner, and the processing margins on the futures market have not been compressed to near the cost. Although some factories have announced production cuts, there are no unexpected developments. The actual output of short - fiber has increased, and the strategy of going long on PX/TA and short on PF should be continued [8]. 3.1.2 Valuation and Strategy - Valuation: The current spot premium is 950 - 1000 yuan/ton, and the processing margin on the futures market is 1000 yuan/ton, which is relatively high [9]. - Strategy: No unilateral strategy; for inter - period trading, observe long spreads at low prices and enter when the valuation is reasonable; continue to hold the strategy of going long on PX/TA and short on PF [9]. 3.2 Bottle chips (PR) 3.2.1 This Week's View - Supply: The average operating rate this week is expected to reach 82.2%. Factory operating rates have increased again, with new production from a 300,000 - ton new device of Fuhai. Overall operating rates may start to decline in late January [10]. - Demand: Downstream operating rates have increased month - on - month. The average operating rate of beverage factories has rebounded to around 70%, and the operating rates of edible oil and sheet material sectors have also increased. Exports from November to December are expected to be in the range of 550,000 - 600,000 tons. Factories have reduced their inventories to around 13 days [10]. - View: The upstream - downstream contradictions continue, and it will be in a short - term high - level sideways trend. The supply of bottle chips in January is expected to increase first and then decrease, and the supply - demand situation will gradually improve from late January to the end of the month. A light - position long spread strategy can be considered at low prices [10]. 3.2.2 Valuation and Strategy - Valuation: The spot processing margin is 400 - 450 yuan/ton, which is neutral; the 02 - 03 processing margin is also 400 - 450 yuan/ton, neutral [10]. - Strategy: No unilateral strategy; for inter - period trading, take profit on short spreads and consider light - position long spreads for contracts after March; no cross - variety strategy [10]. 3.3 New Capacity and Supply - Demand Outlook - **Bottle chips in 2026**: The planned new capacity is relatively small, with only a 400,000 - ton device of Kesen and the remaining 300,000 tons of Fuhai, with a total capacity increase of 700,000 tons and a capacity growth rate of 3.2%. The profit trend is expected to recover [11]. - **Short - fiber in 2026**: The capacity growth rate is relatively high, with two main devices: a 250,000 - ton device of Hengyi Yida and a 550,000 - ton device of Xin Fengming, with a capacity growth rate of 8.7%. This may also put pressure on non - standard price differentials [14]. 3.4 Market Conditions and Related Indicators - **Bottle chips**: - Price: The price has been rising, with an average weekly quotation of 6035 yuan/ton, and the average FOB price is 795 US dollars/ton [25]. - Basis and monthly spreads: The price has corrected from a high level, the basis has significantly recovered, the near - month monthly spreads are still affected by deliverable goods, and the far - end structure is gradually strengthening [22]. - Production and operating rates: The current effective capacity has reached 2.168 billion tons (CCF caliber), and after the commissioning of the Fuhai device, the capacity will increase to 2.198 billion tons. The operating rate of bottle chips this week is expected to rise to 82.2% [33]. - Raw materials: The PTA operating rate is low, and the processing margin has slightly recovered; the ethylene glycol operating rate has rebounded to a high level, and port inventories are increasing [34][42]. - Costs and profits: The polymerization cost is around 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton, the bottle chip processing margin is passively compressed, and the export profit is about 725 - 750 yuan/ton [44]. - Inventories: The inventory pressure of domestic polyester bottle chip factories is neutral, with inventories at around 13 days (CCF caliber), and the estimated social inventory in November is 3.23 million tons and 3.44 million tons in December [49]. - Device changes: Pay attention to the commissioning rhythm of new devices. In December, the operating rate increased. Some devices are planned for maintenance in January and are expected to restart in March [55]. - Demand: Downstream operating rates have increased month - on - month. The operating rates of beverage, edible oil, and sheet material sectors have all shown an upward trend, but the overall demand for beverages and edible oil is still relatively weak [59][67][68]. - Exports: In November 2025, the total export volume of polyester bottle chips and slices was 658,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. From January to November 2025, the total export volume was 7.088 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.9% [82]. - **Short - fiber**: - Valuation: The basis has generally recovered, the monthly structure is in contango, and the near - month contracts are gradually flattening. The processing margin on the futures market is relatively low [95][99]. - Operating rates: Short - fiber factory operating rates are high, currently at 98.5% [105]. - Inventories: Polyester product inventories are generally at a low level, and short - fiber inventories have increased slightly, with the inventory index rising to 8.9 days (+1.2 days) [8][109]. - Exports: In November, polyester exports increased year - on - year but showed a differentiated performance month - on - month. Short - fiber direct exports are expected to remain strong [113][15]. - Profits: The profits of long - fiber and chip sectors are weak, and losses are intensifying [117]. - Downstream: The operating rate of polyester yarn has decreased slightly month - on - month, and inventories are gradually increasing. The weaving operating rate has also decreased slightly [124][126]. 3.5 Textile and Apparel Market - **Retail**: In November 2025, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, needles, and textiles increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month [135]. - **Exports**: In November 2025, textile and apparel exports decreased month - on - month. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export of textile and apparel was 174.919 billion yuan, a slight year - on - year decrease of 0.7% [143][147].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short fiber: In the short term, it is a volatile market, and in the medium term, it is weak. The contradiction between upstream and downstream continues, with short - term high - level volatility. The actual output of short fiber increases, and the strategy of going long on PX/TA and short on PF should be continued to hold [7]. - Bottle chips: It shows a volatile and weak trend. The contradiction between upstream and downstream continues, with short - term high - level volatility. The actual supply in January is expected to increase first and then decrease, and the supply - demand situation will improve marginally from late January to the end of the month. A light - position long spread strategy can be considered at low prices [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Short Fiber (PF) Valuation and Profit - The current spot premium is 950 - 1000 yuan/ton, and the futures margin is 1000 yuan/ton, which is relatively high. The futures margin is on the low side [8][96]. Fundamental Operation - Supply: The factory operating rate has increased to 98.5%. Some factories plan to shut down before the Spring Festival, mainly around the end of January [7]. - Demand: Domestic terminal orders are weakening, and the yarn, weaving, and grey fabric sectors are reducing their loads. The demand is expected to be weak in the future. Some downstream factories may consider taking early holidays in mid - January. The short fiber is nominally destocking, but the physical inventory is accumulating. The short - fiber inventory index has risen to 8.9 days (+1.2 days) [7]. - Strategy: 1) No unilateral strategy. 2) Observe long spreads at low prices and intervene when the valuation is reasonable. 3) Continue to hold the strategy of going long on PX/TA and short on PF [8]. Upstream Viewpoint Summary No relevant information provided. Bottle Chips (PR) Valuation and Profit - The spot processing fee is 400 - 450 yuan/ton, which is neutral; the 02 - 03 processing fee is 400 - 450 yuan/ton, also neutral [9]. Fundamental Operation - Supply: The average operating rate this week is expected to reach 82.2%. Factory operations have resumed, and new devices are being put into production. Overall operations may decline from late January [9]. - Demand: Downstream operations have increased month - on - month. The average operation rate of beverage factories has recovered to around 70%. The operation rates of the edible oil and sheet sectors have also increased month - on - month. Exports from November to December are expected to be in the range of 55 - 60 tons. Factories are destocking, and the inventory has decreased to around 13 days [9]. - Strategy: 1) No unilateral strategy. 2) Take profit on short spreads and consider light - position long spreads (for contracts after March). 3) No cross - variety strategy [9]. Base and Calendar Spread - The price has回调 from a high level, the base has significantly recovered, the near - term calendar spread is still affected by deliverable products, and the far - end structure is gradually strengthening [21]. Spot Price and Important Spreads - The price has been rising continuously, and the trading sentiment is fair. The average weekly quotation is 6035 yuan/ton, and the average FOB price is 795 US dollars/ton [24]. - Compared with PVC, the substitution drive is low; compared with PP and other general plastics, the cost - effectiveness is prominent, and the substitution in the packaging field continues [26][27]. Production and Operation - Since 2024, the production capacity base has been expanding, and the current effective production capacity has reached 2168 tons (CCF caliber). After the new device of Fuhai is put into production, the production capacity base will rise to 2198 tons. The bottle - chip load this week is expected to rise to 82.2% [32]. Raw Materials - PTA load is low, and the processing fee has slightly recovered; ethylene glycol load has rebounded to a high level, and the port inventory is accumulating [33][39]. Cost and Profit - The polymerization cost is around 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton. The bottle - chip processing fee is passively compressed, and the spot processing fee is around 450 yuan/ton. The export profit is around 725 - 750 yuan/ton [44]. Inventory - The inventory pressure of domestic polyester bottle - chip factories is neutral, and the inventory has decreased to around 13 days. According to CCF data, the estimated social inventory in November is 323 tons, and in December it is 344 tons [49]. Device Changes - Some devices are under maintenance, and some new devices have been put into production. Pay attention to the progress of new device implementation [55][56]. Demand - The downstream operation rate has increased month - on - month. The operation of beverage enterprises has slightly recovered, the edible oil factory operation is at a medium - to - low level, and the demand for sheet materials is neutrally supported [59][60][61]. Global Trade Flow of Bottle Chips - Overseas bottle - chip production capacity has increased little in recent years. The downstream demand increment overseas will increasingly rely on imports to achieve supply - demand balance. China's main bottle - chip export trade flows include China - Southeast Asia - South Asia, China - Central Asia, Russia, and Eastern Europe, etc. [73]. Export Situation of Bottle Chips - In November 2025, the total export volume of polyester bottle chips and slices was 65.8 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. From January to November 2025, the total export volume was 708.8 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.9% [80]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet of Bottle Chips - There is a trend of inventory accumulation, but the amplitude is moderate [88]. Textile and Apparel Industry Retail - In November 2025, the retail sales of Chinese textile and apparel increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month [132]. Export - In November 2025, the export of textile and apparel decreased month - on - month. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export of textile and apparel was 17491.9 billion yuan, a slight year - on - year decrease of 0.7% [140][144].

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX: Trend is strongly positive [1] - PTA: Cost support is strongly positive [1] - MEG: Valuation rebounds from the bottom, but there is still pressure in the medium term [1] Core Viewpoints - PX: The unilateral price trend is strongly positive and squeezes downstream profits. Pay attention to the long PX and short PF/PR/BZ/EB positions, and the 5 - 9 calendar spread positive arbitrage. Despite polyester factory production cuts, the tight PX supply expectation cannot be falsified in the short - term [9]. - PTA: Cost support is strong, the unilateral trend is upward, with positive arbitrage. Go long PTA and short PF/PR/MEG/BZ/EB. Tight PX supply supports the cost and continues to squeeze downstream profits [9]. - MEG: Affected by the news of a 720,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Taiwan planning to shut down next month, the ethylene glycol market rose, with short - covering accelerating the increase. The shutdown is expected to reduce mainland imports by 40,000 - 50,000 tons per month. Current MEG valuation is low, causing domestic plants to enter the loss zone and some to consider reducing production. However, high port inventories and polyester production cut expectations limit the upside [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Futures**: PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC had closing prices of 7,294, 5,094, 3,818, 6,484, and 444.7 respectively yesterday. The price changes were - 8, 12, 195, 32, and 3.8, with percentage changes of - 0.11%, 0.24%, 5.38%, 0.50%, and 0.86% respectively [2]. - **Calendar Spreads**: PX1 - 5, PTA1 - 5, MEG1 - 5, PF12 - 1, and SC11 - 12 had closing prices of - 82, - 66, - 152, - 54, and - 0.3 respectively yesterday. The price changes were - 16, 2, - 33, 16, and - 1.2 respectively [2]. - **Spot**: PX CFR China was 901 dollars/ton, PTA in East China was 5,018 yuan/ton, MEG spot was 3,598 yuan/ton, naphtha MOPJ was 540.25 dollars/ton, and Dated Brent was 63.52 dollars/barrel yesterday. The price changes were 5, 63, 76, - 2, and 0.45 respectively [2]. - **Spot Processing Margins**: PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing margin, short - fiber processing margin, bottle - chip processing margin, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude spread were 335.45, 150.47, 221.69, 40.59, and - 4.23 respectively yesterday. The price changes were 30.34, - 28.15, - 24.11, - 61.21, and 0.11 respectively [2]. Market Dynamics - **PX**: A 200,000 - ton PX plant in Japan is currently restarting after a shutdown in mid - September. A 700,000 - ton PX plant in the Northeast plans to restart this weekend, with capacity expected to expand to 1 million tons after restart. A 390,000 - ton PX plant in North China is shut down, and the restart time is undetermined [2]. - **PTA**: In November, China's PTA exports increased by about 61% compared to October, with a significant increase in Indian buyers' interest. India bought 69,802 tons of PTA in November, more than five times the amount in October. Vietnam's imports increased slightly to 34,120 tons in November. Egypt's imports also increased by about 53% to 92,052 tons [5]. - **MEG**: From December 22 to December 28, the expected arrivals at Zhangjiagang, Taicang, and Ningbo are about 15,000 tons, 89,000 tons, and 14,000 tons respectively. Two MEG plants in Taiwan with a total capacity of 720,000 tons/year plan to shut down next month, and the restart time is undetermined. An Iranian 500,000 - ton/year MEG plant has restarted recently [6]. - **Polyester**: The total planned production cuts of three major polyester filament manufacturers are about 2.494 million tons, including 1.61 million tons of POY and 883,000 tons of FDY. A 200,000 - ton polyester plant in Tongxiang has shut down, and the restart time is undetermined. On December 24, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were highly differentiated, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 80%. The sales - to - production ratio of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on December 24 was generally weak, with an average of about 40% [6][7]. Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 1 - PTA trend intensity: 1 - MEG trend intensity: 0 [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Short-term cautious bullish [2] - Inter-period: None [2] - Inter-variety: None [2] 2. Core View - The market sentiment is weak under polyester production cuts. The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,292 yuan/ton (down 14 yuan/ton or 0.33% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 4,415 yuan/ton (down 63 yuan/ton or 1.41% from the previous trading day). The spot basis in East China was 128 yuan/ton (down 19 yuan/ton). The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$29/ton (down $4/ton), and that of coal-based syngas EG was 149 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton). The inventory in the main ports of East China decreased significantly. The supply recovery in June is limited, and the demand load has declined but remains high. Before early June, the arrival of foreign ships is scarce, and the ethylene glycol ports are expected to continue destocking. Attention should be paid to the implementation of polyester production cuts and macro news changes [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,292 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the East China market was 4,415 yuan/ton. The spot basis in East China was 128 yuan/ton [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$29/ton, and that of coal-based syngas EG was 149 yuan/ton [1]. International Spread - The report mentions the international spread of ethylene glycol: US FOB - China CFR [18]. Downstream Sales and Operating Rate - The report analyzes the sales and operating rates of downstream products such as filaments, staple fibers, and polyester [19][21][23]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory in the main ports of East China was 62.1 tons (down 6.6 tons), and according to Longzhong data, it was 57.7 tons (down 3.5 tons). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 6.2 tons, and the planned arrival this week is 10.8 tons [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that MEG will operate in the range of 4300 - 4500 yuan/ton and suggests maintaining a wait - and - see attitude. The market will focus on the OPEC+ ministerial meeting next week, with oil prices expected to be under pressure. Supply may remain low in May - June due to device maintenance and technical transformation plans. Although some polyester manufacturers plan to cut production, the actual implementation is limited. Short - term port inventory may tighten due to fewer arrivals and high downstream pick - up volumes [5][6] Summary by Directory 1. Main Viewpoints - This week, the price of ethylene glycol trended weakly. In the first half of the week, influenced by polyester production cut news, the demand side had a downward revision expectation, and the futures market declined. In the second half, the market was in narrow consolidation, and the supply side also showed losses. The overall fundamentals had no significant changes, and weak downstream demand and high macro uncertainties led to an oscillating and回调 trend. Next week, the market will focus on the OPEC+ ministerial meeting, with oil prices expected to be under pressure. On the supply side, some devices had short - term outages, and there are maintenance and technical transformation plans, so domestic production in May - June will remain low. On the demand side, although some polyester manufacturers announced production cuts, the actual implementation was limited. In terms of port inventory, short - term arrivals are few, and downstream pick - up volumes are high, so short - term spot liquidity will tighten [6] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The impact of large - scale device production cuts is gradually dissipating. This week, the trading volume was 1.25 million lots, and the open interest was 274,200 lots (- 17,500 lots). On May 23, the closing price of the MEG main contract was 4403 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57 yuan/ton (- 1.28%) compared to May 16. The settlement price on May 23 was 4400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 69 yuan/ton (- 1.54%) compared to May 16 [8][11][13] - Spot: The high - end domestic spot price was 4597 yuan/ton (May 19), and the low - end was 4471 yuan/ton (May 22). The average basis this week was 95.75 yuan/ton, lower than last week's 106.80 yuan/ton. The domestic and foreign markets remained inverted, with a spread of 80 - 100 US dollars/ton [15] 3. MEG Device, Inventory, and Production Profit - Device: The overall operating rate dropped to a low for the year, from 55.94% (May 13 - 19) to 55.13% (May 20 - 26). The operating rate of petroleum - based production was 58.11%, coal - based was 49.90%, and methanol - based was 62.40%. Some devices had short - term outages, restarts, or load adjustments. For example, Sanjiang Petrochemical's second - phase device had a short - term outage on May 21 and is currently recovering [19][22][24] - Production Profit: The price of thermal coal continued to decline, but due to the stop - rising and回调 of ethylene glycol spot prices this week, the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol slightly decreased [31] - Inventory: Before early June, the arrival of goods at the main ports for trade will be scarce, and the de - stocking of visible inventory is expected to accelerate. As of May 22, the MEG port inventory was 575,100 tons, a decrease of 77,700 tons (- 7.90%) compared to the previous period. The polyester production cut plan has not been strongly implemented, and port pick - up volumes have not significantly decreased [35][37][38] 4. Fundamental Analysis - International Oil Price: Multiple factors are intertwined, causing high - volatility in international oil prices [43] - Polyester Products: The cost of polyester staple fiber decreased, leading to a price decline, while the average market price of polyester chips increased. The cost support for polyester products still exists, and polyester factories are maintaining prices, causing the profit of the polyester industry chain to move downstream. The average weekly load of polyester factories was 89.42%, and that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 68.86%. The domestic sales of grey fabrics were average, while foreign trade orders were increasing. The average weekly polyester production - sales ratio from May 19 - 23 was estimated to be 40%. The inventory of polyester filament products started to increase after reaching a low level [45][50][56]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risk expectations are cooling, and before the outcome of the OPEC+ production increase meeting, market confidence is still affected by expectations of increased crude oil supply, leading to overall weak oil prices [2] - Although the supply side has tightened significantly, the early - than - expected supply recovery of some PX plants, along with some units increasing or planning to increase their loads, has led to a decline in the overall de - stocking volume of PX, and the strong polyester production cut sentiment has affected market sentiment [2] - In the short term, the bottom of PX prices and PXN will still have support. In the medium - term supply - demand pattern, PX will continue to be in a de - stocking rhythm in the next few months [2] - The remarks of polyester factories about continued production cuts are negative for the PTA market, but the positive trend of PTA de - stocking continues, and the spot basis is strong. In the short term, PTA spot prices will mainly follow the cost side [2] - The operating load of polyester filament has further declined, the overall market sales performance has been average recently, and most factories still have inventory pressure. The supply side of the market has increased slightly [2] - During the tariff suspension period, the foreign trade market shows an increase in quotations and samples, and some traders indicate a large potential number of orders, with rush - to - export orders driving market recovery [2] - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets remains stable. The supply side quotations are mostly stable, downstream terminal replenishment enthusiasm is not high, and market trading is in a stalemate [2] - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate weakly (PX view score: - 1, PTA view score: - 1, PR view score: - 1) [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Information - **Upstream**: On May 28, 2025, the futures settlement price (continuous) of WTI crude oil was $61.84 per barrel, up 1.56%; that of Brent crude oil was $64.90 per barrel, up 1.26%. The spot price (mid - price) of naphtha CFR Japan was $562.50 per ton, down 0.79% [1] - **PX**: The spot price of p - xylene PX CFR China Main Port was $836.00 per ton, down 0.63%. The CZCE PX main contract closing price was 6,590 yuan per ton, down 1.73% [1] - **PTA**: The CZCE TA main contract closing price was 4,672 yuan per ton, down 1.43%. The spot price of PTA in the domestic market was 4,878 yuan per ton, down 0.79% [1] - **PR**: The CZCE PR main contract closing price was 5,946 yuan per ton, down 1.06%. The market price (mainstream price) of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,960 yuan per ton, down 0.17% [1] - **Downstream Fibers**: On May 28, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,500 yuan per ton, up 0.15%; that of polyester chips was 5,880 yuan per ton, down 0.34% [2] Device Information - A 1.2 million - ton PTA device in the Northwest is planned to restart between May 15th and 20th [2] Operating Conditions - On May 28, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 79.18%, unchanged; the PTA industry chain load rate of PTA factories was 79.28%, unchanged; that of polyester factories was 90.69%, down 0.12% [1] Production and Sales - On May 28, 2025, the production - sales rate of polyester filament was 72.00%, up 15.00 percentage points; that of polyester staple fiber was 52.00%, down 2.00 percentage points; that of polyester chips was 37.00%, down 2.00 percentage points [1] Trading Strategy - PTA is operating in a range recently. The TA2509 contract closed at 4,672 yuan per ton (- 0.60%), with an intraday trading volume of 1.13 million lots [2] - The PX2509 contract closed at 6,590 yuan per ton (- 0.66%), with an intraday trading volume of 26,940 lots. PR follows the cost operation, and the 2507 contract closed at 5,946 yuan per ton (- 0.50%), with an intraday trading volume of 38,700 lots [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Neutral: Asphalt, Caustic Soda, Pulp, Urea, LPG [29][45][47][64][80] - Weakly Bearish: Rubber, Synthetic Rubber, LLDPE, PP, Glass, Methanol, PVC, Styrene, Soda Ash [13][17][33][38][51][55][85][65][69] - Bullish: Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil [89] Core Views - The report provides investment strategies and trend analyses for various energy and chemical commodities. It emphasizes the impact of factors such as supply - demand dynamics, production costs, and international trade policies on commodity prices [5][7][9]. - For some commodities like PX, PTA, and MEG, the report suggests spread trading strategies based on the changes in polyester production and market supply - demand [5][9][11]. - For other commodities, it analyzes the market conditions from multiple aspects, including inventory levels, production capacity utilization, and price differentials [14][20][33]. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Long PX and short PTA. Although the polyester production cut may put pressure on PX demand, cost support from rising oil prices and tight supply - demand keep the long - short strategy valid [4][5][9]. - **PTA**: Polyester production cut leads to the strategy of long PX and short PTA. PTA is in a high - level oscillation market, and its processing fee compression position should be held [5][9][10]. - **MEG**: Short MEG unilaterally and long PTA short MEG. The reduction in polyester production reduces MEG demand, and the increase in coal - based MEG production capacity may lead to supply growth [5][11][12]. Rubber - The rubber market is oscillating weakly. Factors such as inventory changes and the decline in the butadiene market affect its price trend [13][14][16]. Synthetic Rubber - It is in a weak operation state. The decline in the butadiene price and the pessimistic market sentiment on the demand side lead to the weak performance of synthetic rubber [17][19]. Asphalt - It follows the crude oil to oscillate within a range. The changes in production capacity utilization, inventory, and shipment volume affect the asphalt market [20][29][32]. LLDPE - It is running weakly. The increase in new production capacity, weak demand, and falling costs put pressure on the LLDPE price [33][34][35]. PP - The price is slightly falling, and the trading volume is average. The weak performance of the PP futures and the lack of downstream orders lead to the weak market [38][39]. Caustic Soda - It is in an oscillating market. The downstream replenishment in May supports the market, but the sustainability of inventory accumulation is a key factor. The supply and cost also affect the market trend [41][42][43]. Pulp - It is oscillating. The changes in futures prices, spot prices, and inventory levels affect the pulp market [46][47][48]. Glass - The original sheet price is stable. The market demand is average, and the glass factory has a large inventory removal pressure [51][52][53]. Methanol - It is in a weak operation. The weak terminal demand, inventory accumulation, and the return of production capacity in June lead to the weak market [55][58][59]. Urea - It is oscillating. The weak domestic demand and the support from exports lead to the oscillating state. The inventory changes and export policies affect the price [61][62][64]. Styrene - It is oscillating in the short term. The downstream replenishment, high profit - induced supply return, and changes in port basis affect the styrene market [65][66][68]. Soda Ash - The spot market changes little. The supply is slightly fluctuating, and the downstream demand is tepid, leading to the weak - stable market [69][70][71]. LPG - It is oscillating in the short term. The changes in production capacity utilization and market supply - demand affect the LPG market [73][75][80]. PVC - It is running weakly. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and the export and domestic demand are not strong [85][86][88]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil has a daily rebound and a large overnight jump. Low - sulfur fuel oil is weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price differential between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils in the overseas spot market continues to narrow [89]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It is oscillating at a high level, and the 10 - 12 reverse spread should be held. The changes in freight rates and market sentiment affect the index [91][92].