Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]

期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4292元/吨（较前一交易日变动-14元/吨，幅度-0.33%），EG华东市场现货价 4415元/吨（较前一交易日变动-63元/吨，幅度-1.41%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）128元/吨（环比-19元/ 吨）。 化工日报 | 2025-06-05 聚酯减产下市场情绪偏弱 核心观点 市场分析 风险 原油价格波动，煤价大幅波动，宏观政策超预期 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-29美元/吨（环比-4美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为149元/吨（环比-10 元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为62.1万吨（环比-6.6万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为57.7万吨（环比-3.5万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数6.2万吨，到港量偏少，港口去 库幅度明显；本周华东主港计划到港总数10.8万吨，中性偏低。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，卫星、恒力等几套大装置检修时间较长，6月国内供应端恢复幅度有限，仓单固化 下流通性收紧；需求端，聚酯减 ...

1 一、主要观点 关注聚酯减产的落实情况 能源化工-MEG 宏源期货研究所 王江楠 010-82295006 从业资格证号：F03108382 投资咨询证号：Z0021543 主要逻辑 综合来看，预计区间为4300-4500元/吨运行，建议保持观望。 3 周内乙二醇价格重心偏弱。上半周受聚酯减产消息影响，需求环节 存下修预期，乙二醇盘面弱势下行。下半周，乙二醇市场窄幅整理， 供应端同步表现损失。整体来看，基本面没有明显变动，下游需求 走弱给市场带来一定压力。同时宏观不确定较高，乙二醇维持震荡 回调走势。 下周预测：市场重点关注OPEC＋的部长级大会，在5-6月皆增产的 背景下，预计油价承压运行。供应端，装置出现短停，后续有其他 装置有检修和技改计划，5-6月乙二醇国产量仍将处于低位。需求 端，虽然部分聚酯大厂释放减产言论，但实际执行力度有限，聚酯 开工负荷降幅较小。港口库存方面，短期港口到船偏少，且现阶段 下游聚酯提货量较高，短期乙二醇现货流动性仍将面临收紧。 二、盘面及现货情况 盘面走势：大型装置减产的影响在边际消散 3900 4000 4100 4200 4300 4400 4500 4600 4700 ...

2025年05月29日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：多PX空PTA | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：聚酯加大减产力度，多PX空PTA | 2 | | MEG：单边逢高空，多PTA空MEG | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡偏弱 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：弱势运行 | 7 | | 沥青：跟随原油区间震荡 | 9 | | LLDPE：偏弱运行 | 11 | | PP：价格小跌，成交一般 | 13 | | 烧碱：暂时是震荡市 | 14 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 16 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 18 | | 甲醇：弱势运行 | 19 | | 尿素：内需偏弱，出口支撑，震荡运行 | 21 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 23 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 25 | | LPG：短期震荡运行 | 26 | | PVC：偏弱运行 | 29 | | 燃料油：日盘反弹，夜盘大幅跳开 | 31 | | 低硫燃料油：走势相对高硫偏弱，外盘现货高低硫价差继续收窄 | 31 | | 集运指数（欧线）：高位震荡，10-12反套持有 | 32 | | 短纤：短期震荡市 | 36 | ...

化工日报 | 2025-05-22 聚酯减产意向影响，EG震荡下跌 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4414元/吨（较前一交易日变动+1元/吨，幅度+0.02%），EG华东市场现货价 4516元/吨（较前一交易日变动+6元/吨，幅度+0.13%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）88元/吨（环比-7元/吨）。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-23美元/吨（环比-4美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为181元/吨（环比-48 元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为74.3万吨（环比-0.8万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为66.4万吨（环比-2.8万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数6.4万吨，到港量偏少，但同时 聚酯工厂隐性库存下降，港口小幅去库；本周华东主港计划到港总数10.9万吨，中性。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，近期仓单量大幅增加，乙二醇现货流动性收紧，卫星等几套大装置仍存检修计划； 需求端，近端聚酯负荷高位提升，5月聚酯月均负荷或不降反升，需求端支撑，同时美国对中国纺服关税大幅下降， 美国订单恢复发货。短期外轮到货偏少，聚 ...

化工日报 | 2025-05-21 聚酯减产意向影响，EG震荡下跌 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4413元/吨（较前一交易日变动-62元/吨，幅度-1.39%），EG华东市场现货价 4510元/吨（较前一交易日变动-63元/吨，幅度-1.38%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）95元/吨（环比+3元/吨）。 周二乙二醇盘面弱势，受聚酯减产意向影响，需求环节存下修预期。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-19美元/吨（环比+3美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为229元/吨（环比 +5元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为74.3万吨（环比-0.8万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为66.4万吨（环比-2.8万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数6.4万吨，到港量偏少，但同时 聚酯工厂隐性库存下降，港口小幅去库；本周华东主港计划到港总数10.9万吨，中性。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，近期仓单量大幅增加，乙二醇现货流动性收紧，卫星等几套大装置仍存检修计划； 需求端，近端聚酯负荷高位提升，5月聚酯月均负荷或不降反升，需求端支撑，同时美国 ...