Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]

期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4292元/吨（较前一交易日变动-14元/吨，幅度-0.33%），EG华东市场现货价 4415元/吨（较前一交易日变动-63元/吨，幅度-1.41%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）128元/吨（环比-19元/ 吨）。 化工日报 | 2025-06-05 聚酯减产下市场情绪偏弱 核心观点 市场分析 风险 原油价格波动，煤价大幅波动，宏观政策超预期 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-29美元/吨（环比-4美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为149元/吨（环比-10 元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为62.1万吨（环比-6.6万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为57.7万吨（环比-3.5万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数6.2万吨，到港量偏少，港口去 库幅度明显；本周华东主港计划到港总数10.8万吨，中性偏低。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，卫星、恒力等几套大装置检修时间较长，6月国内供应端恢复幅度有限，仓单固化 下流通性收紧；需求端，聚酯减 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that MEG will operate in the range of 4300 - 4500 yuan/ton and suggests maintaining a wait - and - see attitude. The market will focus on the OPEC+ ministerial meeting next week, with oil prices expected to be under pressure. Supply may remain low in May - June due to device maintenance and technical transformation plans. Although some polyester manufacturers plan to cut production, the actual implementation is limited. Short - term port inventory may tighten due to fewer arrivals and high downstream pick - up volumes [5][6] Summary by Directory 1. Main Viewpoints - This week, the price of ethylene glycol trended weakly. In the first half of the week, influenced by polyester production cut news, the demand side had a downward revision expectation, and the futures market declined. In the second half, the market was in narrow consolidation, and the supply side also showed losses. The overall fundamentals had no significant changes, and weak downstream demand and high macro uncertainties led to an oscillating and回调 trend. Next week, the market will focus on the OPEC+ ministerial meeting, with oil prices expected to be under pressure. On the supply side, some devices had short - term outages, and there are maintenance and technical transformation plans, so domestic production in May - June will remain low. On the demand side, although some polyester manufacturers announced production cuts, the actual implementation was limited. In terms of port inventory, short - term arrivals are few, and downstream pick - up volumes are high, so short - term spot liquidity will tighten [6] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The impact of large - scale device production cuts is gradually dissipating. This week, the trading volume was 1.25 million lots, and the open interest was 274,200 lots (- 17,500 lots). On May 23, the closing price of the MEG main contract was 4403 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57 yuan/ton (- 1.28%) compared to May 16. The settlement price on May 23 was 4400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 69 yuan/ton (- 1.54%) compared to May 16 [8][11][13] - Spot: The high - end domestic spot price was 4597 yuan/ton (May 19), and the low - end was 4471 yuan/ton (May 22). The average basis this week was 95.75 yuan/ton, lower than last week's 106.80 yuan/ton. The domestic and foreign markets remained inverted, with a spread of 80 - 100 US dollars/ton [15] 3. MEG Device, Inventory, and Production Profit - Device: The overall operating rate dropped to a low for the year, from 55.94% (May 13 - 19) to 55.13% (May 20 - 26). The operating rate of petroleum - based production was 58.11%, coal - based was 49.90%, and methanol - based was 62.40%. Some devices had short - term outages, restarts, or load adjustments. For example, Sanjiang Petrochemical's second - phase device had a short - term outage on May 21 and is currently recovering [19][22][24] - Production Profit: The price of thermal coal continued to decline, but due to the stop - rising and回调 of ethylene glycol spot prices this week, the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol slightly decreased [31] - Inventory: Before early June, the arrival of goods at the main ports for trade will be scarce, and the de - stocking of visible inventory is expected to accelerate. As of May 22, the MEG port inventory was 575,100 tons, a decrease of 77,700 tons (- 7.90%) compared to the previous period. The polyester production cut plan has not been strongly implemented, and port pick - up volumes have not significantly decreased [35][37][38] 4. Fundamental Analysis - International Oil Price: Multiple factors are intertwined, causing high - volatility in international oil prices [43] - Polyester Products: The cost of polyester staple fiber decreased, leading to a price decline, while the average market price of polyester chips increased. The cost support for polyester products still exists, and polyester factories are maintaining prices, causing the profit of the polyester industry chain to move downstream. The average weekly load of polyester factories was 89.42%, and that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 68.86%. The domestic sales of grey fabrics were average, while foreign trade orders were increasing. The average weekly polyester production - sales ratio from May 19 - 23 was estimated to be 40%. The inventory of polyester filament products started to increase after reaching a low level [45][50][56]

风险提示：期市有风险，投资需谨慎！ 王江楠（F03108382，Z0021543），联系电话：010-82295006 | | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/5/29 | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 | 2025/5/28 | 美元/桶 | 61.84 | 60.89 | 1.56% | | 上 | 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/5/28 | 美元/桶 | 64.90 | 64.09 | 1.26% | | 游 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/5/28 | 美元/吨 | 562.50 | 567.00 | -0.79% | | | 现货价(中间价):二甲苯(异构级):FOB韩国2025/5/28 | | 美元/吨 | 703.50 | 701.50 | 0.29% | | | 现货价:对二甲苯PX:CFR中国主港 | 2025/5/28 | 美元/吨 | 836.00 | 8 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Neutral: Asphalt, Caustic Soda, Pulp, Urea, LPG [29][45][47][64][80] - Weakly Bearish: Rubber, Synthetic Rubber, LLDPE, PP, Glass, Methanol, PVC, Styrene, Soda Ash [13][17][33][38][51][55][85][65][69] - Bullish: Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil [89] Core Views - The report provides investment strategies and trend analyses for various energy and chemical commodities. It emphasizes the impact of factors such as supply - demand dynamics, production costs, and international trade policies on commodity prices [5][7][9]. - For some commodities like PX, PTA, and MEG, the report suggests spread trading strategies based on the changes in polyester production and market supply - demand [5][9][11]. - For other commodities, it analyzes the market conditions from multiple aspects, including inventory levels, production capacity utilization, and price differentials [14][20][33]. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Long PX and short PTA. Although the polyester production cut may put pressure on PX demand, cost support from rising oil prices and tight supply - demand keep the long - short strategy valid [4][5][9]. - **PTA**: Polyester production cut leads to the strategy of long PX and short PTA. PTA is in a high - level oscillation market, and its processing fee compression position should be held [5][9][10]. - **MEG**: Short MEG unilaterally and long PTA short MEG. The reduction in polyester production reduces MEG demand, and the increase in coal - based MEG production capacity may lead to supply growth [5][11][12]. Rubber - The rubber market is oscillating weakly. Factors such as inventory changes and the decline in the butadiene market affect its price trend [13][14][16]. Synthetic Rubber - It is in a weak operation state. The decline in the butadiene price and the pessimistic market sentiment on the demand side lead to the weak performance of synthetic rubber [17][19]. Asphalt - It follows the crude oil to oscillate within a range. The changes in production capacity utilization, inventory, and shipment volume affect the asphalt market [20][29][32]. LLDPE - It is running weakly. The increase in new production capacity, weak demand, and falling costs put pressure on the LLDPE price [33][34][35]. PP - The price is slightly falling, and the trading volume is average. The weak performance of the PP futures and the lack of downstream orders lead to the weak market [38][39]. Caustic Soda - It is in an oscillating market. The downstream replenishment in May supports the market, but the sustainability of inventory accumulation is a key factor. The supply and cost also affect the market trend [41][42][43]. Pulp - It is oscillating. The changes in futures prices, spot prices, and inventory levels affect the pulp market [46][47][48]. Glass - The original sheet price is stable. The market demand is average, and the glass factory has a large inventory removal pressure [51][52][53]. Methanol - It is in a weak operation. The weak terminal demand, inventory accumulation, and the return of production capacity in June lead to the weak market [55][58][59]. Urea - It is oscillating. The weak domestic demand and the support from exports lead to the oscillating state. The inventory changes and export policies affect the price [61][62][64]. Styrene - It is oscillating in the short term. The downstream replenishment, high profit - induced supply return, and changes in port basis affect the styrene market [65][66][68]. Soda Ash - The spot market changes little. The supply is slightly fluctuating, and the downstream demand is tepid, leading to the weak - stable market [69][70][71]. LPG - It is oscillating in the short term. The changes in production capacity utilization and market supply - demand affect the LPG market [73][75][80]. PVC - It is running weakly. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and the export and domestic demand are not strong [85][86][88]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil has a daily rebound and a large overnight jump. Low - sulfur fuel oil is weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price differential between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils in the overseas spot market continues to narrow [89]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It is oscillating at a high level, and the 10 - 12 reverse spread should be held. The changes in freight rates and market sentiment affect the index [91][92].

化工日报 | 2025-05-22 聚酯减产意向影响，EG震荡下跌 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4414元/吨（较前一交易日变动+1元/吨，幅度+0.02%），EG华东市场现货价 4516元/吨（较前一交易日变动+6元/吨，幅度+0.13%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）88元/吨（环比-7元/吨）。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-23美元/吨（环比-4美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为181元/吨（环比-48 元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为74.3万吨（环比-0.8万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为66.4万吨（环比-2.8万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数6.4万吨，到港量偏少，但同时 聚酯工厂隐性库存下降，港口小幅去库；本周华东主港计划到港总数10.9万吨，中性。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，近期仓单量大幅增加，乙二醇现货流动性收紧，卫星等几套大装置仍存检修计划； 需求端，近端聚酯负荷高位提升，5月聚酯月均负荷或不降反升，需求端支撑，同时美国对中国纺服关税大幅下降， 美国订单恢复发货。短期外轮到货偏少，聚 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Short - term cautious bullish on the unilateral strategy; no suggestions for cross - period and cross - variety strategies [3] 2. Core View - The polyester production cut intention led to a decline in the EG market. However, in the short term, due to the maintenance plans of several large devices such as Satellite, the tightening of liquidity under the solidification of warehouse receipts, and the low arrival volume, the price has support. In the long - term, under the background of continuous destocking, the liquidity of ethylene glycol may still tighten from June to July. Attention should be paid to the realization of negative feedback on the demand side when raw materials rise rapidly [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4413 yuan/ton (down 62 yuan/ton or 1.39% from the previous trading day), the spot price in the East China EG market was 4510 yuan/ton (down 63 yuan/ton or 1.38% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis in East China EG (based on the 2509 contract) was 95 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 19 US dollars/ton (up 3 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - based syngas - based EG was 229 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] International Spread - No specific data was provided in the text Downstream Production, Sales and Operating Rate - The near - end polyester load increased at a high level, and the average monthly polyester load in May may increase instead of decrease. The US orders for Chinese textile and clothing resumed shipping due to the significant reduction of US tariffs on Chinese textile and clothing [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 74.3 tons (down 0.8 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 66.4 tons (down 2.8 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival volume at the main ports last week was 6.4 tons, and the planned arrival volume at the main ports in East China this week was 10.9 tons [1]