来源：中信建投证券研究 文|黄文涛 朱林宁 全球宏观经济格局正在快速重构：一是科技革命重塑千行百业的生产和消费范式；二是债务经济体对稀 缺资源的竞争，带来全球原料商品需求和储备的变化；三是世界货币的格局出现新形势。 顺应宏观范式革命和趋势力量，我们提出2026年全球宏观十大机遇： 一是黄金延续增储，贵金属保持强势； 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 二是白银价值重估，战略金属资源新兴起； 三是电力与能源先行，夯实产业建设基础； 四是新技术、新制造加速融合商业应用； 五是统一大市场建设，消费需求释放； 六是企业出海和国际贸易持续旺盛； 七是资本市场"新四牛"优化资源配置； 八是我国香港国际金融中心功能强化； 九是人民币国际化与亚太经济一体化红利； 十是美国货币转宽利好资金回流新兴市场。 点击小程序查看报告原文 展望2026年，顺应全球宏观格局的范式革命和趋势力量，资产配置组合也将迎来新的调整重构和新一轮 投资机遇，我们提出2026年全球宏观十大投资机遇。 如图表1，根据国际货币基金组织（IMF）和世界黄金协会（WGC）统计，黄金已重新成为全球央行的 第二大国际储备品种，且 ...

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Group 1: APEC Meeting Overview - The APEC informal leaders' meeting was held in Gyeongju, South Korea, from October 31 to November 1, focusing on "Building a Sustainable Tomorrow - Connectivity, Innovation, Prosperity" [1] - APEC accounts for 37% of the global population and contributes 61% to world economic growth, with its share of the global economy increasing from 57% in 1989 to 61% in 2024 [1] - The absence of the United States at this year's meeting positions China as the largest economy among APEC members, and China will assume the role of APEC chair in 2026 [1] Group 2: China's Economic Contributions - China has consistently contributed over 30% to global economic growth, accounting for more than half of APEC's economic growth [2] - In 2024, China's goods trade represents 29.2% of APEC's external trade, while its service trade accounts for 14.3% [2] - China is a major trading partner for 21 APEC economies and the largest trading partner for 13 of them, engaging with over 150 countries and regions globally [2] Group 3: Green Development Initiatives - China has set targets for carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060, actively promoting economic restructuring and carbon reduction efforts [3] - The country has ceased new overseas coal power projects since 2019 and is investing in renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power [3] - China's green development efforts support sustainable development in the Asia-Pacific region and contribute significantly to global ecological governance [3] Group 4: Modernization and Investment - China is not only a major exporter of goods but also of technology, driving the digital, green, and intelligent transformation of traditional industries [4] - Over the past five years, China has attracted over $700 billion in foreign investment and ranks among the top three countries for outbound direct investment [4] - In 2024, 85% of China's outbound direct investment flows are directed towards 20 APEC partners, with 71.9% of the investment stock held in 20 APEC economies [4] Group 5: Economic Integration Efforts - China has signed bilateral free trade agreements with at least seven APEC partners and has been instrumental in establishing the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) [6] - Ongoing negotiations for a China-Japan-South Korea free trade agreement and efforts to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) are underway [6] Group 6: Belt and Road Initiative - China is actively collaborating with APEC members on the Belt and Road Initiative, enhancing connectivity and supporting landlocked countries like Laos [7] - The China-Laos Railway connects to broader regional networks, facilitating trade between ASEAN countries and China [7] - Initiatives with Vietnam, Thailand, and Singapore are also in progress to strengthen economic ties and connectivity [7] Group 7: Global Governance and Cooperation - China has proposed global governance initiatives to address international governance gaps and promote multilateralism [8] - The country advocates for a comprehensive and sustainable security perspective while enhancing cooperation in poverty alleviation, industrialization, and digital connectivity [8] - Efforts to build a community with a shared future in the Asia-Pacific region are being promoted in collaboration with APEC members [8]

Economic Growth Outlook - Cambodia's economy is projected to grow by 5.2% in 2025, according to the Cambodian People's Party Chairman Hun Sen [1] - The World Bank has revised Cambodia's economic growth forecast for 2025 down to 4% from an earlier estimate of 5.5% [1] - The World Bank report highlights that while Cambodia's economy shows resilience, growth is uneven, particularly in labor-intensive manufacturing sectors like garments and footwear [1][3] Export Market Diversification - Cambodia is working on diversifying its export markets and products, despite the U.S. being its largest export market [1][3] - The Cambodian government is focusing on maintaining flexibility and resilience in the garment and footwear industries amid external pressures [3] Impact of U.S. Tariff Policies - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies is significantly impacting Southeast Asia's economic growth, including Cambodia [2][3] - The Cambodian garment and footwear sectors are particularly vulnerable to potential U.S. tariffs, with many factories awaiting decisions from U.S. authorities [3] Agricultural Sector Development - Cambodia aims to enhance its agricultural value chain by focusing on the processing of products like cashews, bananas, and mangoes [4][5] - The country is pushing for local processing to add value to agricultural products, which is crucial for its economic foundation [4] RCEP and China-Cambodia Trade Relations - China remains Cambodia's largest trading partner, with ongoing benefits from the RCEP and China-Cambodia Free Trade Agreement [6] - Cambodia's trade deficit with China is expected to persist, as the country imports many intermediate goods for processing and re-export [6] Infrastructure and Belt and Road Initiative - The Belt and Road Initiative is crucial for Cambodia's infrastructure development, which is necessary for global competitiveness [8][9] - Future cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative will focus on industrial development and enhancing quality and standards in various sectors [9] Financial Cooperation and Currency Settlement - The cross-border RMB business between China and Cambodia is projected to reach approximately 20 billion yuan in 2024, doubling year-on-year [10] - The establishment of a currency settlement system will facilitate easier transactions between Cambodian and Chinese businesses [10] Youth and Technological Collaboration - Cambodia's young population is seen as a potential asset for technological collaboration with regions like the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [11] - There is a strong interest in fostering cooperation between young innovators from both regions to explore market opportunities [11]

Group 1 - Australia views China as a crucial economic partner, emphasizing that without China, true economic integration in the Asia-Pacific region is unattainable [1][5] - The Australia-China relationship is characterized by high economic complementarity, with Australia heavily reliant on China for minerals, energy, agriculture, education, and tourism [2][3] - Recent surveys indicate a positive outlook among Australian businesses regarding the bilateral relationship, with 86% of respondents expressing optimism and 76% believing that improved relations will positively impact their long-term development in China [1] Group 2 - The Australian government is committed to maintaining and expanding trade relations with China, with officials stating that trade with China is ten times more important than trade with the U.S. [4] - Australia has established a stable communication mechanism with China, with ongoing high-level political dialogues despite existing differences [2][3] - The potential for cooperation in emerging industries such as electric vehicles, renewable energy, and artificial intelligence is significant, with Australia needing to deepen its collaboration with China to secure a foothold in these sectors [9][10][12] Group 3 - The Chinese market is seen as a primary target for Australian businesses looking for future growth opportunities, particularly as Chinese households demand higher quality goods and services [9][12] - The recent improvement in China's business environment is viewed positively by Australian companies, with many expecting continued enhancements in the coming years [11] - The bilateral trade volume between China and Australia has reached 300 billion AUD, highlighting the importance of maintaining strong economic ties [14]