策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.23 欧美股指成交显著放量 [Table_Authors] 陈菲(分析师) 全球股市立体投资策略周报 12 月第 3 期 | | 021-23187260 | | --- | --- | | | chenfei4@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040127 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 短线外资回流规模创 11 月以来新高 2025.12.20 最近一周外资明显回流互联网 2025.12.16 恒指波幅创 2022 年以来新低 2025.12.16 每周海内外重要政策跟踪（25/12/14） 2025.12.14 日股盈利预期自 11 月以来显著上修 2025.12.08 证 券 研 究 报 告 本报告导读： 上周发达市场表现更优，欧美股指成交大幅放量，港股卖空比例抬升、恒指波幅继 续下降。资金面上，联储 26 年降息路径不明，日央行 12 月加息落地。基本面上， 上周港股盈利预期小幅上修，美股科技盈利预期持续上修。 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 策 略 研 究 海 外 策 略 研 究 [Table_ ...

Market Performance - Global markets rebounded last week, with MSCI Global up by 2.3%, MSCI Developed up by 2.4%, and MSCI Emerging up by 1.8% [1] - The Hong Kong cyclical sector led the gains, while US tech and consumer discretionary sectors performed well, and European financials and real estate showed strong performance [1] - US 10Y Treasury yields increased, and oil prices saw significant gains [1] Trading Sentiment - Trading volume increased in US and European markets, while Japanese and Korean markets saw a decrease [1] - Investor sentiment in Hong Kong decreased but remained at historical highs, while US investor sentiment increased and also reached historical highs [1] - Volatility decreased in Hong Kong, US, and European markets, while Japanese market volatility increased [1] - Overall valuations in developed and emerging markets improved compared to the previous week [1] Earnings Expectations - Earnings expectations were revised upward across major markets, with Japanese stocks showing the best performance in 2025 EPS expectations [2] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index 2025 EPS expectation was revised from 2192 to 2194 [2] - US S&P 500 Index 2025 EPS expectation was revised from 267 to 268 [2] - European STOXX 50 Index 2025 EPS expectation remained unchanged at 335 [2] Economic Expectations - China's economic expectations were marginally revised upward, influenced by positive policy sentiments and overseas technology developments [2] - The US and European economic surprise indices declined, affected by various geopolitical and economic factors [2] Capital Flows - Global macro liquidity expectations remained stable, with a slight increase in expectations for US Federal Reserve rate cuts following the non-farm payroll data [3] - As of August 8, market expectations indicated a 2.3 rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year, a decrease from the previous week [3] - There was a net inflow into Hong Kong stocks from the southbound trading, while foreign capital outflow from Hong Kong stocks was noted [3]