Market Performance - Global indices mostly rose last week, with MSCI Global up by 0.6%, MSCI Developed Markets up by 0.6%, and MSCI Emerging Markets up by 0.9% [7][31] - Among developed markets, Nikkei 225 had the strongest performance with a gain of 6.3%, while the Australian S&P 200 was the weakest, down by 1.5% [7][31] - In emerging markets, the Mexican MXX index performed best with a rise of 2.7%, while the Hang Seng Index was the worst performer, down by 1.0% [7][31] Trading Sentiment - Global trading volume generally improved, with North American holdings index reaching a historical high [21] - The trading volume for major indices such as the Shanghai Composite, S&P 500, and Nikkei 225 saw fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng Index experiencing declines [21][27] - Investor sentiment in Hong Kong improved but remained at a historical low, while sentiment in the US was at a historical high [21][28] Fundamental Analysis - Earnings expectations for US tech and consumer discretionary sectors were significantly revised upwards during the earnings season [63] - The S&P 500's 2025 EPS earnings expectation was adjusted from 269 to 270, with the technology sector seeing the largest upward revision of +2.4 [63][64] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index's 2025 EPS earnings expectation was revised from 2062 to 2066, with the materials sector seeing the largest increase [63][64] Economic Outlook - Major market sentiment indicators showed a rebound, with the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the US rising due to the Fed's rate cut and improved earnings from tech giants [7][63] - The European Economic Surprise Index also increased, supported by stable ECB rates and a temporary easing of political tensions in France [7][63] - The Chinese Economic Surprise Index rose, bolstered by positive Q3 data and favorable policies [7][63] Capital Flows - The Federal Reserve cut rates as expected, but there were hawkish signals regarding future cuts [52] - As of October 31, market expectations indicated the Fed would cut rates 0.68 times by year-end, a decrease from the previous week [52][53] - Global liquidity trends showed significant inflows into the US, China, India, Japan, and South Korea, with Hong Kong seeing substantial inflows through the Stock Connect program [58][62]

Research Views Copper - Overnight, LME copper prices fluctuated higher, while domestic prices were slightly stronger. The spot import window for refined copper in China remained closed. Trump extended the deadline for the US - Mexico trade, security, and immigration agreement and did not restart the US - Canada negotiation for "some time." The US also signed trade agreements with Malaysia and Cambodia and reached framework agreements with Thailand and Vietnam. China plans to implement a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic recovery. LME copper inventory decreased by 375 tons to 135,975 tons, Comex copper decreased by 200 tons to 315,468 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 321 tons to 35,392 tons, and BC copper decreased by 1,831 tons to 11,059 tons [1]. - High copper prices led to a decline in downstream orders, affecting mid - end processing and slowing down spot purchases. The easing of US - China trade tariffs increased overseas risk appetite. Market attention is on next year's economic outlook. With geopolitical and trade improvements and the potential impact of the Indonesian mine accident, copper supply - demand may be in a tight balance, and ICSG predicts a shortage in 2026. However, there is a divergence as China's high copper demand in the first three quarters may lead to less demand pressure in the fourth quarter [1]. Aluminum - Overnight, alumina fluctuated stronger with AO2601 closing at 2,848 yuan/ton, a 0.81% increase and a position increase of 10,797 lots to 383,000 lots. Shanghai aluminum fluctuated weaker with AL2512 closing at 21,255 yuan/ton, a 0.02% decrease and a position decrease of 6,873 lots to 304,000 lots. Aluminum alloy also fluctuated weaker. The SMM alumina price dropped, and the aluminum ingot spot discount widened. Aluminum rod and alloy processing fees showed mixed trends. Alumina plant profits were compressed, and high - cost capacity had occasional production cuts. Overseas supply disruptions and increased domestic molten aluminum supply led to a reduction in aluminum ingot supply and smooth de - stocking, driving up aluminum prices. Market focus is on the Fed's end - of - month interest rate decision and US - China tariff negotiations [2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel rose 0.07% to 15,335 dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.87% to 121,260 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory increased by 384 tons to 251,238 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 2,970 tons to 29,780 tons. The LME 0 - 3 month premium remained negative, and the import nickel premium was 400 yuan/ton. Nickel ore prices were stable. In the nickel - iron - stainless steel industry chain, nickel - iron prices decreased, and stainless steel inventory slightly declined with weak terminal demand. In the new energy industry chain, the discount coefficient rose slightly, and ternary material demand increased month - on - month, but the production plan for ternary precursors in October decreased. High LME inventory pressured the market, and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely [2]. Daily Data Monitoring Copper - Market prices: The price of flat - water copper increased by 1,805 yuan/ton, 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong rose by 1,000 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread in Guangdong widened by 770 yuan/ton. The prices of downstream products such as oxygen - free and low - oxygen copper rods also increased [4]. - Inventory: Total inventory decreased by 5,448 tons week - on - week, and social inventory (domestic + bonded area) decreased by 10,000 tons to 274,000 tons [4]. Lead - Market prices: The average price of 1 lead increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the price of recycled refined lead decreased by 25 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory: Total inventory decreased by 5,368 tons week - on - week [4]. Aluminum - Market prices: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai increased, and the Nanhai - Wuxi price difference narrowed. The alumina FOB price increased, and the price of Shandong alumina decreased slightly [5]. - Inventory: Total inventory decreased by 3,860 tons week - on - week, while electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 8,000 tons to 626,000 tons, and alumina social inventory increased by 16,000 tons to 108,000 tons [5]. Nickel - Market prices: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the price of imported nickel - Wuxi spread widened by 50 yuan/ton. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the prices of new energy - related products such as nickel sulfate decreased [5]. - Inventory: Nickel inventory increased by 1,656 tons week - on - week, and stainless steel inventory decreased by 7 tons [5]. Zinc - Market prices: The主力结算 price increased slightly by 0.1%, and the prices of zinc alloys increased [7]. - Inventory: Total inventory increased by 793 tons week - on - week, and social inventory increased by 1,200 tons to 164,700 tons [7]. Tin - Market prices: The主力结算 price increased by 0.5%, and the LmeS3 price decreased by 2.1% [7]. - Inventory: Total inventory increased by 75 tons week - on - week [7]. Chart Analysis Spot Premium - Charts show the spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [9][11][15]. SHFE Near - Far Month Spread - Charts display the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [16][21]. LME Inventory - Charts present the LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [24][26][28]. SHFE Inventory - Charts show the SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [30][32][34]. Social Inventory - Charts display the social inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [36][38][40]. Smelting Profit - Charts present the copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [42][45][47]. Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a science master, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, and has multiple professional titles. He has over a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published many professional articles. His team has won multiple awards [50]. - Wang Heng, a finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on aluminum and silicon research [50]. - Zhu Xi, a science master from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on lithium and nickel research [51].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that new housing transaction areas have shown a month-on-month increase, while real estate development investment has decreased year-on-year from January to August 2025 [3] - The report highlights that the decline in housing prices has been consistent since 2022, with a significant drop in both new and second-hand housing prices across 70 cities, although the rate of decline has started to narrow due to supportive policies [5][16] - It emphasizes that the relationship between population growth and housing prices is not straightforward, as effective housing demand driven by economic development and income growth is crucial for influencing prices [5][25] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The real estate market has entered a downward trend since 2022, with new and second-hand housing prices experiencing a decline for over 40 months [5][16] - As of August 2025, the new housing price index across 70 cities has decreased by 3.0% year-on-year, while the second-hand housing price index has dropped by 5.5% [16][20] Population Impact - The report concludes that population factors are long-term variables with limited mid-term impact on housing prices, as the marginal changes in housing prices are influenced more by monetary policy, supply-demand relationships, and economic expectations [25][39] - A regression analysis across several developed countries shows that housing price indices do not have a significant correlation with population growth rates [40][42] International Experience - The report draws parallels with international experiences, noting that stable fiscal and monetary policies are essential for stabilizing housing prices after declines [6][46] - It cites examples from the U.S., Japan, and South Korea, where coordinated fiscal and monetary policies have successfully supported housing market recovery after significant downturns [46][49] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on real estate companies with strong credit ratings and solid fundamentals in urban areas, such as China Overseas Development and Poly Developments [7] - It also suggests that companies excelling in both residential and commercial real estate, as well as those providing high-quality property management services, are well-positioned for growth [7]

Group 1 - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that removing Hamas leadership in Qatar would eliminate a major obstacle to achieving a ceasefire in Gaza [1] - The international community is closely monitoring the situation after a Russian drone unexpectedly entered Polish airspace, a NATO member [1] - The upcoming "central bank super week" will see interest rate decisions from G7 countries, excluding the US Federal Reserve, as well as from Brazil, South Africa, and Norway [1] Group 2 - Gold prices have shown strong bullish momentum, with a rise of over $360 in just four trading weeks, indicating robust demand [2] - The international silver market also saw an upward trend, reaching an annual high of $42.5 [2] - Domestic gold futures in China hit a historical high above 840, while silver futures continue to reach new highs, hovering around the 10,000 mark [2] Group 3 - Gold is currently experiencing high-level fluctuations, with a focus on the direction following a correction, particularly in relation to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [3] - The price range for gold is currently between $3,612 and $3,674, with expectations that $3,674 is not a definitive peak but a temporary high [3] - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at $3,660-$3,657, with a potential breakout above these levels leading to new highs [5] Group 4 - The market is expected to experience fluctuations, with key resistance levels at $3,657-$3,660 and support at $3,625 and $3,612 [7] - Trading strategies suggest focusing on selling at resistance levels and buying at support levels, with a cautious approach to avoid chasing the market [7]

Core Viewpoint - Global markets experienced mixed performance last week, with increased trading activity and heightened market observation. There are indications from multiple Federal Reserve officials suggesting a potential interest rate cut in September, with market expectations of approximately two rate cuts within the year. Additionally, economic forecasts for both the US and China have been marginally revised upwards, while earnings expectations for US tech stocks in 2026 continue to be upgraded, and those for Hong Kong stocks have been slightly downgraded [1]. Market Performance - Global markets showed mixed results last week, with MSCI Global down by 0.4%, MSCI Developed down by 0.4%, and MSCI Emerging down by 0.6%. In the bond market, French 10Y government bond yields saw a significant increase. In commodities, silver prices led the gains. Currency-wise, the US dollar strengthened, the British pound depreciated, the Japanese yen remained stable, and the Chinese yuan appreciated. Sector-wise, the materials sector in Hong Kong led the gains, while the energy sector in the US showed relative strength [2]. Trading Sentiment - Overall trading sentiment in global stock markets improved last week, with increased trading volumes in indices such as the Hang Seng Index, S&P 500, European Stoxx 50, and Nikkei 225, while the Korean Kospi 200 saw a decline in trading volume. Investor sentiment in Hong Kong and the US decreased but remained at historically high levels. Volatility increased in Hong Kong, US, and European markets, while it decreased in Japan. Valuations for both developed and emerging markets saw a decline compared to the previous week [2]. Earnings Expectations - Earnings expectations for Hong Kong's consumer discretionary sector were downgraded last week. Comparatively, US earnings expectations for 2025 showed the best performance, followed by European and Hong Kong markets, with Japan lagging. Specifically, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index 2025 EPS forecast was revised down from 2190 to 2140. The S&P 500's 2025 EPS forecast was adjusted from 268 to 269, while the Eurozone STOXX 50's 2025 EPS forecast was slightly increased from 335 to 336 [3]. Economic Expectations - Economic forecasts for both the US and China were revised upwards last week. The Citigroup US Economic Surprise Index increased, benefiting from expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and strong earnings reports from tech leaders like Nvidia. Conversely, the European Economic Surprise Index declined, likely due to a drop in the Eurozone Economic Sentiment Index in August. China's Economic Surprise Index rose, attributed to policy expectations, increased retail participation, and structural highlights in earnings reports [3]. Capital Flows - Global macro liquidity showed a slight easing last week. Recent comments from several Federal Reserve officials indicated a potential rate cut in September. As of August 29, futures market implied rates suggested expectations of approximately 2.2 rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, an increase from the previous week. Last week, US dollar liquidity tightened marginally. In terms of micro liquidity, July saw capital inflows primarily into India, Europe, Hong Kong, and South Korea, with flexible foreign capital and net inflows into Hong Kong stocks last week [4].

Market Performance - Global markets rebounded last week, with MSCI Global up by 2.3%, MSCI Developed up by 2.4%, and MSCI Emerging up by 1.8% [1] - The Hong Kong cyclical sector led the gains, while US tech and consumer discretionary sectors performed well, and European financials and real estate showed strong performance [1] - US 10Y Treasury yields increased, and oil prices saw significant gains [1] Trading Sentiment - Trading volume increased in US and European markets, while Japanese and Korean markets saw a decrease [1] - Investor sentiment in Hong Kong decreased but remained at historical highs, while US investor sentiment increased and also reached historical highs [1] - Volatility decreased in Hong Kong, US, and European markets, while Japanese market volatility increased [1] - Overall valuations in developed and emerging markets improved compared to the previous week [1] Earnings Expectations - Earnings expectations were revised upward across major markets, with Japanese stocks showing the best performance in 2025 EPS expectations [2] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index 2025 EPS expectation was revised from 2192 to 2194 [2] - US S&P 500 Index 2025 EPS expectation was revised from 267 to 268 [2] - European STOXX 50 Index 2025 EPS expectation remained unchanged at 335 [2] Economic Expectations - China's economic expectations were marginally revised upward, influenced by positive policy sentiments and overseas technology developments [2] - The US and European economic surprise indices declined, affected by various geopolitical and economic factors [2] Capital Flows - Global macro liquidity expectations remained stable, with a slight increase in expectations for US Federal Reserve rate cuts following the non-farm payroll data [3] - As of August 8, market expectations indicated a 2.3 rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year, a decrease from the previous week [3] - There was a net inflow into Hong Kong stocks from the southbound trading, while foreign capital outflow from Hong Kong stocks was noted [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the cautious economic outlook and analyzes the reasons behind the sustained strength of the A-share market [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The economic expectations remain cautious, influenced by various domestic and international factors [1] - Recent economic indicators suggest a mixed performance, with some sectors showing resilience while others face challenges [1] Group 2: A-share Market Performance - The A-share market has shown strong performance despite the cautious economic outlook, driven by investor sentiment and sector rotations [1] - Key sectors contributing to the market strength include technology and consumer goods, which have outperformed others [1]

巴克莱将中国2025年GDP增速预期从4%上调至4.5%；瑞银将中国2025年GDP增速预期从4%上调至4.7%；澳新银行将中国2025年GDP增速预期从4.2%上调至5.1%；摩根士丹利将中国2025年GDP增速预期从4.5%上调至4.8%。 ...

Group 1: PMI Data Insights - The manufacturing PMI for June rose to 49.7%, exceeding the Bloomberg consensus expectation of 49.6%[3] - The increase in PMI was driven by improvements in both supply and demand, with the new orders index rising to 50.2% and the production index to 51%[11] - However, the sustainability of this improvement is questionable, as employment demand decreased month-on-month and production expectations slightly declined[3] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Demand expansion is not uniform across industries, with small enterprises experiencing a contraction in orders, while high-tech manufacturing remains flat[11] - Among 15 sub-industries, only 7 showed improvement compared to May, indicating a lack of widespread demand expansion[11] - Price pressures persist, with the factory price index at 46.2% and major raw material purchase price index at 48.4%, reflecting ongoing downward pressure on prices[11] Group 3: Sectoral Performance - The non-manufacturing PMI increased to 50.5%, primarily due to a rise in the construction PMI to 52.8%, while the service sector PMI fell to 50.1%[11] - Infrastructure orders are shifting towards expansion, which may help offset export downturn pressures[11] - The real estate market shows weak economic expectations, as indicated by second-hand housing prices and futures prices, necessitating policy support for growth[11]

Core Insights - The German consumer confidence index has declined for the first time in four months, primarily due to households opting to save rather than spend [1] - Despite a more optimistic income outlook, the increased willingness to save among consumers offsets the positive sentiment among high-income households [1] - Economic expectations among consumers have risen to the highest level since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, driven by government stimulus plans in defense and infrastructure set to take effect later this year [1] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are showing a higher propensity to save, indicating ongoing uncertainty despite improved income expectations from recent wage agreements and increased retirement benefits [1] - The decline in consumer confidence is attributed to a shift in focus from spending to saving, reflecting a cautious approach among households [1] Economic Outlook - The report highlights that the improvement in economic outlook is linked to upcoming government initiatives aimed at stimulating the economy [1] - The increase in consumer economic expectations suggests a potential for future spending, contingent on the effectiveness of government stimulus measures [1]