此外， 现货铂金 、 现货钯金 纷纷走高，涨超2% 。 | COMEX自银 | 72.810 | 3.13% | | --- | --- | --- | | SI.CMX | | | | 伦敦银现 | 73.434 | 2.59% | | SPTAGUSDOZ.IDC | | | | 现货铂金(美元/盎司) | 2109.20 | 2.39% | | SPTPTUSDOZ.IDC | | | | NYMEX铝 | 1688.50 | 2.25% | | PA NYM | | | | 现货把金(美元/盎司) | 1639.02 | 2.09% | | SPTPDUSDOZ.IDC | | | | 伦敦金现 | 4373.060 | 1.27% | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | COMEX黄金 | 4384.4 | 1.00% | | GC.CMX | | | 国信证券分析认为， 近期白银价格暴涨，远超历史水平，主要原因可能系工业属性弹性凸 显，背后是经济预期的走高，基本面的支撑；国内白银库存处于历史低位，而中国是制造大 国，下游制品的供给也占比很大；12月是白银期货的交割月；叠加近期白银暴涨 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monetary policy adjustments to address the structural imbalance of "strong supply and weak demand" in the economy, indicating a shift towards a more coordinated and forward-looking approach in policy implementation [17] International News - The U.S. government has announced a delay in imposing additional tariffs on Chinese chips for at least 18 months, signaling an effort to stabilize U.S.-China relations [11] - Japan has revised its economic growth forecast for the fiscal year 2025 to 1.1%, up from 0.7%, due to lower-than-expected negative impacts from U.S. tariffs [11] - Israeli officials have indicated potential military conflict with Iran, focusing on Iran's efforts to rebuild its ballistic missile arsenal [11] Domestic News - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has released 30 billion yuan in medium-term liquidity through MLF and reverse repos, with a total net injection of 49.61 billion yuan for the year [13] - Hainan Free Trade Port reported over 400 million yuan in zero-tariff imports during its first week of closure, demonstrating a positive impact on the consumer market [14] - The Shanghai government has issued measures to support the G60 Science and Technology Corridor, including financial support for aerospace industry development [14] - Guangzhou has introduced 18 measures to support the gaming and esports industry, with individual companies eligible for up to 10 million yuan in financial support [15] Company Updates - Xiaomi held a product launch event, introducing the Xiaomi 17 Ultra with a starting price of 6,999 yuan, and reported cumulative deliveries of over 500,000 units for its automotive division [16] - Samsung plans to launch its own GPU integrated into the Exynos 2800 chip by 2027, joining a select group of companies capable of designing GPUs [16] - Dyson has made significant changes to its family wealth management structure, transferring at least 624 million pounds to a Singapore holding company [16] - Yichang Technology signed a share transfer agreement to transfer 25.33% of its shares to a partner for 850 million yuan [16] - Zhongwei Co. has entered a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Xinwanda Power Technology to collaborate on solid-state battery technology [16] - Zhongding Co. is establishing a joint venture for humanoid robot manufacturing with two other companies [16]

策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.23 欧美股指成交显著放量 [Table_Authors] 陈菲(分析师) 全球股市立体投资策略周报 12 月第 3 期 | | 021-23187260 | | --- | --- | | | chenfei4@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040127 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 短线外资回流规模创 11 月以来新高 2025.12.20 最近一周外资明显回流互联网 2025.12.16 恒指波幅创 2022 年以来新低 2025.12.16 每周海内外重要政策跟踪（25/12/14） 2025.12.14 日股盈利预期自 11 月以来显著上修 2025.12.08 证 券 研 究 报 告 本报告导读： 上周发达市场表现更优，欧美股指成交大幅放量，港股卖空比例抬升、恒指波幅继 续下降。资金面上，联储 26 年降息路径不明，日央行 12 月加息落地。基本面上， 上周港股盈利预期小幅上修，美股科技盈利预期持续上修。 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 策 略 研 究 海 外 策 略 研 究 [Table_ ...

报告导读： 上周全球指数小幅收涨，恒指波幅创 2022 年以来新低，中国科技板块收涨、 而发达市场科技显著回撤。 资金面上，联储 12 月降息预期并重启购债，市场预计 26 年 降息 2 次。基本面上，上周港股盈利预期边际下修，主要市场经济高频景气回升。 市场表现：上周全球市场小幅收跌。 股市方面， MSCI 全球 -0.3% ，其中 MSCI 发达市场 -0.3% 、 MSCI 新兴市场 +0.3% 。债市方面，美债长端利率 上行，中国长端利率下降。大宗方面，银价涨幅居前，原油跌幅较大。汇率方面，美元贬，英镑升，日元贬，人民币升。上周中国股市科技板块收涨，发达市 场科技板块显著回撤。 交投情绪：上周全球多数股指成交放量，恒指波幅降至 2022 年以来最低水平。 从成交看，上周港股、 A 股、美股、韩股与日股成交走强，欧股成交走弱。 从投资者情绪看，港股投资者情绪环比下降、处历史偏低位，美股投资者情绪下降、处历史偏高位。从波动率看，上周港股、欧股、日股波动率下降，美股波 动率上升。从估值看，上周发达市场、新兴市场整体估值均较前周上升。 盈利预期：上周港股盈利预期边际下修，美股科技盈利预期上修。 横向对比来看， ...

Market Performance - Global indices mostly rose last week, with MSCI Global up by 0.6%, MSCI Developed Markets up by 0.6%, and MSCI Emerging Markets up by 0.9% [7][31] - Among developed markets, Nikkei 225 had the strongest performance with a gain of 6.3%, while the Australian S&P 200 was the weakest, down by 1.5% [7][31] - In emerging markets, the Mexican MXX index performed best with a rise of 2.7%, while the Hang Seng Index was the worst performer, down by 1.0% [7][31] Trading Sentiment - Global trading volume generally improved, with North American holdings index reaching a historical high [21] - The trading volume for major indices such as the Shanghai Composite, S&P 500, and Nikkei 225 saw fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng Index experiencing declines [21][27] - Investor sentiment in Hong Kong improved but remained at a historical low, while sentiment in the US was at a historical high [21][28] Fundamental Analysis - Earnings expectations for US tech and consumer discretionary sectors were significantly revised upwards during the earnings season [63] - The S&P 500's 2025 EPS earnings expectation was adjusted from 269 to 270, with the technology sector seeing the largest upward revision of +2.4 [63][64] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index's 2025 EPS earnings expectation was revised from 2062 to 2066, with the materials sector seeing the largest increase [63][64] Economic Outlook - Major market sentiment indicators showed a rebound, with the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the US rising due to the Fed's rate cut and improved earnings from tech giants [7][63] - The European Economic Surprise Index also increased, supported by stable ECB rates and a temporary easing of political tensions in France [7][63] - The Chinese Economic Surprise Index rose, bolstered by positive Q3 data and favorable policies [7][63] Capital Flows - The Federal Reserve cut rates as expected, but there were hawkish signals regarding future cuts [52] - As of October 31, market expectations indicated the Fed would cut rates 0.68 times by year-end, a decrease from the previous week [52][53] - Global liquidity trends showed significant inflows into the US, China, India, Japan, and South Korea, with Hong Kong seeing substantial inflows through the Stock Connect program [58][62]

Research Views Copper - Overnight, LME copper prices fluctuated higher, while domestic prices were slightly stronger. The spot import window for refined copper in China remained closed. Trump extended the deadline for the US - Mexico trade, security, and immigration agreement and did not restart the US - Canada negotiation for "some time." The US also signed trade agreements with Malaysia and Cambodia and reached framework agreements with Thailand and Vietnam. China plans to implement a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic recovery. LME copper inventory decreased by 375 tons to 135,975 tons, Comex copper decreased by 200 tons to 315,468 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 321 tons to 35,392 tons, and BC copper decreased by 1,831 tons to 11,059 tons [1]. - High copper prices led to a decline in downstream orders, affecting mid - end processing and slowing down spot purchases. The easing of US - China trade tariffs increased overseas risk appetite. Market attention is on next year's economic outlook. With geopolitical and trade improvements and the potential impact of the Indonesian mine accident, copper supply - demand may be in a tight balance, and ICSG predicts a shortage in 2026. However, there is a divergence as China's high copper demand in the first three quarters may lead to less demand pressure in the fourth quarter [1]. Aluminum - Overnight, alumina fluctuated stronger with AO2601 closing at 2,848 yuan/ton, a 0.81% increase and a position increase of 10,797 lots to 383,000 lots. Shanghai aluminum fluctuated weaker with AL2512 closing at 21,255 yuan/ton, a 0.02% decrease and a position decrease of 6,873 lots to 304,000 lots. Aluminum alloy also fluctuated weaker. The SMM alumina price dropped, and the aluminum ingot spot discount widened. Aluminum rod and alloy processing fees showed mixed trends. Alumina plant profits were compressed, and high - cost capacity had occasional production cuts. Overseas supply disruptions and increased domestic molten aluminum supply led to a reduction in aluminum ingot supply and smooth de - stocking, driving up aluminum prices. Market focus is on the Fed's end - of - month interest rate decision and US - China tariff negotiations [2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel rose 0.07% to 15,335 dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.87% to 121,260 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory increased by 384 tons to 251,238 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 2,970 tons to 29,780 tons. The LME 0 - 3 month premium remained negative, and the import nickel premium was 400 yuan/ton. Nickel ore prices were stable. In the nickel - iron - stainless steel industry chain, nickel - iron prices decreased, and stainless steel inventory slightly declined with weak terminal demand. In the new energy industry chain, the discount coefficient rose slightly, and ternary material demand increased month - on - month, but the production plan for ternary precursors in October decreased. High LME inventory pressured the market, and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely [2]. Daily Data Monitoring Copper - Market prices: The price of flat - water copper increased by 1,805 yuan/ton, 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong rose by 1,000 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread in Guangdong widened by 770 yuan/ton. The prices of downstream products such as oxygen - free and low - oxygen copper rods also increased [4]. - Inventory: Total inventory decreased by 5,448 tons week - on - week, and social inventory (domestic + bonded area) decreased by 10,000 tons to 274,000 tons [4]. Lead - Market prices: The average price of 1 lead increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the price of recycled refined lead decreased by 25 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory: Total inventory decreased by 5,368 tons week - on - week [4]. Aluminum - Market prices: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai increased, and the Nanhai - Wuxi price difference narrowed. The alumina FOB price increased, and the price of Shandong alumina decreased slightly [5]. - Inventory: Total inventory decreased by 3,860 tons week - on - week, while electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 8,000 tons to 626,000 tons, and alumina social inventory increased by 16,000 tons to 108,000 tons [5]. Nickel - Market prices: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the price of imported nickel - Wuxi spread widened by 50 yuan/ton. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the prices of new energy - related products such as nickel sulfate decreased [5]. - Inventory: Nickel inventory increased by 1,656 tons week - on - week, and stainless steel inventory decreased by 7 tons [5]. Zinc - Market prices: The主力结算 price increased slightly by 0.1%, and the prices of zinc alloys increased [7]. - Inventory: Total inventory increased by 793 tons week - on - week, and social inventory increased by 1,200 tons to 164,700 tons [7]. Tin - Market prices: The主力结算 price increased by 0.5%, and the LmeS3 price decreased by 2.1% [7]. - Inventory: Total inventory increased by 75 tons week - on - week [7]. Chart Analysis Spot Premium - Charts show the spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [9][11][15]. SHFE Near - Far Month Spread - Charts display the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [16][21]. LME Inventory - Charts present the LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [24][26][28]. SHFE Inventory - Charts show the SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [30][32][34]. Social Inventory - Charts display the social inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [36][38][40]. Smelting Profit - Charts present the copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [42][45][47]. Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a science master, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, and has multiple professional titles. He has over a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published many professional articles. His team has won multiple awards [50]. - Wang Heng, a finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on aluminum and silicon research [50]. - Zhu Xi, a science master from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on lithium and nickel research [51].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that new housing transaction areas have shown a month-on-month increase, while real estate development investment has decreased year-on-year from January to August 2025 [3] - The report highlights that the decline in housing prices has been consistent since 2022, with a significant drop in both new and second-hand housing prices across 70 cities, although the rate of decline has started to narrow due to supportive policies [5][16] - It emphasizes that the relationship between population growth and housing prices is not straightforward, as effective housing demand driven by economic development and income growth is crucial for influencing prices [5][25] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The real estate market has entered a downward trend since 2022, with new and second-hand housing prices experiencing a decline for over 40 months [5][16] - As of August 2025, the new housing price index across 70 cities has decreased by 3.0% year-on-year, while the second-hand housing price index has dropped by 5.5% [16][20] Population Impact - The report concludes that population factors are long-term variables with limited mid-term impact on housing prices, as the marginal changes in housing prices are influenced more by monetary policy, supply-demand relationships, and economic expectations [25][39] - A regression analysis across several developed countries shows that housing price indices do not have a significant correlation with population growth rates [40][42] International Experience - The report draws parallels with international experiences, noting that stable fiscal and monetary policies are essential for stabilizing housing prices after declines [6][46] - It cites examples from the U.S., Japan, and South Korea, where coordinated fiscal and monetary policies have successfully supported housing market recovery after significant downturns [46][49] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on real estate companies with strong credit ratings and solid fundamentals in urban areas, such as China Overseas Development and Poly Developments [7] - It also suggests that companies excelling in both residential and commercial real estate, as well as those providing high-quality property management services, are well-positioned for growth [7]

Group 1 - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that removing Hamas leadership in Qatar would eliminate a major obstacle to achieving a ceasefire in Gaza [1] - The international community is closely monitoring the situation after a Russian drone unexpectedly entered Polish airspace, a NATO member [1] - The upcoming "central bank super week" will see interest rate decisions from G7 countries, excluding the US Federal Reserve, as well as from Brazil, South Africa, and Norway [1] Group 2 - Gold prices have shown strong bullish momentum, with a rise of over $360 in just four trading weeks, indicating robust demand [2] - The international silver market also saw an upward trend, reaching an annual high of $42.5 [2] - Domestic gold futures in China hit a historical high above 840, while silver futures continue to reach new highs, hovering around the 10,000 mark [2] Group 3 - Gold is currently experiencing high-level fluctuations, with a focus on the direction following a correction, particularly in relation to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [3] - The price range for gold is currently between $3,612 and $3,674, with expectations that $3,674 is not a definitive peak but a temporary high [3] - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at $3,660-$3,657, with a potential breakout above these levels leading to new highs [5] Group 4 - The market is expected to experience fluctuations, with key resistance levels at $3,657-$3,660 and support at $3,625 and $3,612 [7] - Trading strategies suggest focusing on selling at resistance levels and buying at support levels, with a cautious approach to avoid chasing the market [7]

Core Viewpoint - Global markets experienced mixed performance last week, with increased trading activity and heightened market observation. There are indications from multiple Federal Reserve officials suggesting a potential interest rate cut in September, with market expectations of approximately two rate cuts within the year. Additionally, economic forecasts for both the US and China have been marginally revised upwards, while earnings expectations for US tech stocks in 2026 continue to be upgraded, and those for Hong Kong stocks have been slightly downgraded [1]. Market Performance - Global markets showed mixed results last week, with MSCI Global down by 0.4%, MSCI Developed down by 0.4%, and MSCI Emerging down by 0.6%. In the bond market, French 10Y government bond yields saw a significant increase. In commodities, silver prices led the gains. Currency-wise, the US dollar strengthened, the British pound depreciated, the Japanese yen remained stable, and the Chinese yuan appreciated. Sector-wise, the materials sector in Hong Kong led the gains, while the energy sector in the US showed relative strength [2]. Trading Sentiment - Overall trading sentiment in global stock markets improved last week, with increased trading volumes in indices such as the Hang Seng Index, S&P 500, European Stoxx 50, and Nikkei 225, while the Korean Kospi 200 saw a decline in trading volume. Investor sentiment in Hong Kong and the US decreased but remained at historically high levels. Volatility increased in Hong Kong, US, and European markets, while it decreased in Japan. Valuations for both developed and emerging markets saw a decline compared to the previous week [2]. Earnings Expectations - Earnings expectations for Hong Kong's consumer discretionary sector were downgraded last week. Comparatively, US earnings expectations for 2025 showed the best performance, followed by European and Hong Kong markets, with Japan lagging. Specifically, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index 2025 EPS forecast was revised down from 2190 to 2140. The S&P 500's 2025 EPS forecast was adjusted from 268 to 269, while the Eurozone STOXX 50's 2025 EPS forecast was slightly increased from 335 to 336 [3]. Economic Expectations - Economic forecasts for both the US and China were revised upwards last week. The Citigroup US Economic Surprise Index increased, benefiting from expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and strong earnings reports from tech leaders like Nvidia. Conversely, the European Economic Surprise Index declined, likely due to a drop in the Eurozone Economic Sentiment Index in August. China's Economic Surprise Index rose, attributed to policy expectations, increased retail participation, and structural highlights in earnings reports [3]. Capital Flows - Global macro liquidity showed a slight easing last week. Recent comments from several Federal Reserve officials indicated a potential rate cut in September. As of August 29, futures market implied rates suggested expectations of approximately 2.2 rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, an increase from the previous week. Last week, US dollar liquidity tightened marginally. In terms of micro liquidity, July saw capital inflows primarily into India, Europe, Hong Kong, and South Korea, with flexible foreign capital and net inflows into Hong Kong stocks last week [4].

Market Performance - Global markets rebounded last week, with MSCI Global up by 2.3%, MSCI Developed up by 2.4%, and MSCI Emerging up by 1.8% [1] - The Hong Kong cyclical sector led the gains, while US tech and consumer discretionary sectors performed well, and European financials and real estate showed strong performance [1] - US 10Y Treasury yields increased, and oil prices saw significant gains [1] Trading Sentiment - Trading volume increased in US and European markets, while Japanese and Korean markets saw a decrease [1] - Investor sentiment in Hong Kong decreased but remained at historical highs, while US investor sentiment increased and also reached historical highs [1] - Volatility decreased in Hong Kong, US, and European markets, while Japanese market volatility increased [1] - Overall valuations in developed and emerging markets improved compared to the previous week [1] Earnings Expectations - Earnings expectations were revised upward across major markets, with Japanese stocks showing the best performance in 2025 EPS expectations [2] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index 2025 EPS expectation was revised from 2192 to 2194 [2] - US S&P 500 Index 2025 EPS expectation was revised from 267 to 268 [2] - European STOXX 50 Index 2025 EPS expectation remained unchanged at 335 [2] Economic Expectations - China's economic expectations were marginally revised upward, influenced by positive policy sentiments and overseas technology developments [2] - The US and European economic surprise indices declined, affected by various geopolitical and economic factors [2] Capital Flows - Global macro liquidity expectations remained stable, with a slight increase in expectations for US Federal Reserve rate cuts following the non-farm payroll data [3] - As of August 8, market expectations indicated a 2.3 rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year, a decrease from the previous week [3] - There was a net inflow into Hong Kong stocks from the southbound trading, while foreign capital outflow from Hong Kong stocks was noted [3]