报告导读： 上周全球市场普遍反弹，港股周期板块领涨，美股科技 + 可选消费占优，欧 洲金融 + 地产表现居前。 8 月初美国非农数据披露后降息预期升温，市场预期美联储年内 降息 2-3 次 。上周主要市场盈利预期不同程度上修，中国经济预期边际改善。 盈利预期：上周主要市场盈利预期不同程度上修。 横向对比来看，上周日股 2025 年盈利预期边际变化表现最优，港股、美股次之，欧股表现最末。其中： 1 ）港股盈利预期上修，恒生指数 2025 年 EPS 盈利预期从 2192 上修至 2194 。 2 ）美股盈利预期上修，标普 500 指数 2025 年 EPS 盈利预期从 267 上修至 268 。 3 ）欧股盈利预期持平，欧元区 STOXX50 指数 2025 年 EPS 盈利预期持平在 335 。 经济预期：上周中国经济预期边际上修。 从经济领先指数看，过去一周，花旗美国经济意外指数下降，主要受美印关税谈判受阻、关税通胀传导预期、美联 储内部降息分歧等影响；欧洲经济意外指数下降，或受俄乌局势影响；花旗中国经济意外指数上升，或受益于反内卷 + 育儿等积极政策情绪催化、海外科技 大模型映射等。 资金流动：上周全球宏 ...

【申万宏源策略 | 一周回顾展望】经济预期谨慎，A股缘何延续强势 原创 阅读全文 申万宏源策略 ...

巴克莱将中国2025年GDP增速预期从4%上调至4.5%；瑞银将中国2025年GDP增速预期从4%上调至4.7%；澳新银行将中国2025年GDP增速预期从4.2%上调至5.1%；摩根士丹利将中国2025年GDP增速预期从4.5%上调至4.8%。 ...

Group 1: PMI Data Insights - The manufacturing PMI for June rose to 49.7%, exceeding the Bloomberg consensus expectation of 49.6%[3] - The increase in PMI was driven by improvements in both supply and demand, with the new orders index rising to 50.2% and the production index to 51%[11] - However, the sustainability of this improvement is questionable, as employment demand decreased month-on-month and production expectations slightly declined[3] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Demand expansion is not uniform across industries, with small enterprises experiencing a contraction in orders, while high-tech manufacturing remains flat[11] - Among 15 sub-industries, only 7 showed improvement compared to May, indicating a lack of widespread demand expansion[11] - Price pressures persist, with the factory price index at 46.2% and major raw material purchase price index at 48.4%, reflecting ongoing downward pressure on prices[11] Group 3: Sectoral Performance - The non-manufacturing PMI increased to 50.5%, primarily due to a rise in the construction PMI to 52.8%, while the service sector PMI fell to 50.1%[11] - Infrastructure orders are shifting towards expansion, which may help offset export downturn pressures[11] - The real estate market shows weak economic expectations, as indicated by second-hand housing prices and futures prices, necessitating policy support for growth[11]

Core Insights - The German consumer confidence index has declined for the first time in four months, primarily due to households opting to save rather than spend [1] - Despite a more optimistic income outlook, the increased willingness to save among consumers offsets the positive sentiment among high-income households [1] - Economic expectations among consumers have risen to the highest level since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, driven by government stimulus plans in defense and infrastructure set to take effect later this year [1] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are showing a higher propensity to save, indicating ongoing uncertainty despite improved income expectations from recent wage agreements and increased retirement benefits [1] - The decline in consumer confidence is attributed to a shift in focus from spending to saving, reflecting a cautious approach among households [1] Economic Outlook - The report highlights that the improvement in economic outlook is linked to upcoming government initiatives aimed at stimulating the economy [1] - The increase in consumer economic expectations suggests a potential for future spending, contingent on the effectiveness of government stimulus measures [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's probability of maintaining interest rates in July dropped from 91.7% to 83.5% due to recent dovish comments from Governor Waller, indicating internal disagreements within the Fed regarding interest rate policies [1][3] - The Fed revised its GDP growth forecast for this year down from 1.7% to 1.4%, while increasing inflation expectations, suggesting a complex economic environment [3] - Trump's pressure on the Fed has led to heightened expectations for interest rate cuts, with a current probability of around 60% for a rate cut in September [5] Group 2 - The U.S. national debt exceeds $30 trillion, and a 1% reduction in interest rates could save approximately $300 billion in interest payments annually, but potential inflation could counteract these savings [3] - Powell emphasized the Fed's independence and commitment to economic stability, indicating that political pressures are unlikely to alter the Fed's policy direction [4] - Investors are advised to focus on fundamental data and long-term industry trends rather than short-term interest rate fluctuations influenced by political rhetoric [5]

相关链接 今日重点关注的财经数据与事件：2025年6月18日 周三 ① 待定 2025陆家嘴论坛在上海举办 ② 01:30 加拿大央行公布货币政策会议纪要 ③ 04:30 美国至6月13日当周API原油库存 ④ 14:00 英国5月CPI月率 ⑤ 14:00 英国5月零售物价指数月率 ⑥ 16:00 欧元区4月季调后经常帐 ⑦ 17:00 欧元区5月CPI年率终值 ⑧ 17:00 欧元区5月CPI月率终值 ⑨ 20:30 美国至6月14日当周初请失业金人数 ⑩ 20:30 美国5月新屋开工总数年化 ⑪ 20:30 美国5月营建许可总数 ⑫ 22:30 美国至6月13日当周EIA原油库存 ⑬ 22:30 美国至6月13日当周EIA库欣原油库存 ⑭ 22:30 美国至6月13日当周EIA战略石油储备库存 ⑮ 23:15 加拿大央行行长麦克勒姆发表讲话 ⑯ 次日00:00 美国至6月13日当周EIA天然气库存 ⑰ 次日02:00 美联储FOMC公布利率决议和经济预期摘要 ⑱ 次日02:30 美联储主席鲍威尔召开货币政策新闻发布会 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月18日 策 略 研 究 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 联系人 陈伟业 cwy@longone.com.cn [经济预期与市场风险偏好，均衡配置下 Table_NewTitle] 寻找权益低估资产 ——资产配置周报（2025/05/12-2025/05/16） [table_main] 投资要点 究 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 总 量 研 [Table_Report] ➢ 全球大类资产回顾。至5月16日当周，全球股市多数收涨，美股表现强于A股；主要商品期 货中黄金下跌，原油、铜、铝均收涨；美元指数小幅上涨，日元、欧元贬值，人民 ...

公司资质 能源化工日报 日度观点: ◆ PVC： 5 月 8 日 PVC 主力 09 合约收盘 4839 元/吨（-37），常州市场价 4660 元 /吨（-40），主力基差-179 元/吨(+3），广州市场价 4790 元/吨（0）， 杭州市场价 4730 元/吨（-40）。5 月 7 日受中美和谈等消息影响，市场 一度宏观偏暖迹象，工业品冲高；国内出台货币政策等，力度一般。市 场更多交易对经济的担忧，美联储偏鹰。基本面看，长期看 PVC 需求在 地产拖累下持续低迷，出口受反倾销和 BIS 认证等压制，且出口体量总 体占比不大（12%左右）；供应端有不少新投计划，二季度投产压力较大， 且烧碱利润高开工持续维持高位，库存高企供应压力较大；基本面需求 不足、产能过剩，供需宽松格局，偏空配。4 月中旬开始环比有增多， 出口以价换量持稳状态，内需季节性恢复，最近库存去化尚可，基本面 驱动有限，宏观主导。目前海外局势动荡，全球经济增速放缓，国内政 策预期不强，PVC 估值偏低，盘面弱势整理。重点关注关税谈判进展、 国内刺激政策力度。基本面关注出口和检修力度。若国内刺激政策超预 期，或有一定支撑。若贸易摩擦恶化、经济预 ...