Market Performance - Emerging markets saw a narrowing increase last week, with MSCI global index up by 0.2%, MSCI developed markets flat at 0.0%, and MSCI emerging markets up by 1.4% [1] - In the bond market, the U.S. 10Y Treasury yield experienced the largest increase, while commodities like oil surged and gold and silver saw notable pullbacks [1] - The global energy sector showed consistent growth, with Chinese stocks performing strongly in cyclical sectors, and utilities and communications in Europe and the U.S. outperforming [1] Trading Sentiment - Global market trading volume increased last week, with major indices experiencing higher volatility [1] - A/H/U.S./European/Japanese stock trading volumes rose, while Korean stock trading volume decreased [1] - Investor sentiment in Hong Kong improved and reached historical highs, while U.S. investor sentiment also remained at historical highs [1] - Volatility increased across Hong Kong, U.S., European, and Japanese stocks, while U.S. Treasury bond volatility decreased [1] - Valuations for both developed and emerging markets improved compared to the previous week [1] Earnings Expectations - Earnings expectations for Japanese and European stocks were revised upward last week, with the following changes: 1) Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index 2025 EPS forecast adjusted from -2.1% to -2.0% 2) U.S. S&P 500 Index 2025 EPS forecast revised from +10.5% to +11.8% 3) Eurozone STOXX 50 Index 2025 EPS forecast adjusted from -4.5% to -4.4% [2] Economic Expectations - The U.S. economic surprise index rose last week, potentially due to stronger-than-expected corporate earnings and easing geopolitical tensions [2] - The European economic surprise index also improved, likely supported by better-than-expected GDP growth in the Eurozone for Q4 [2] - The Chinese economic surprise index showed marginal improvement, influenced by expectations surrounding real estate and service consumption policies, as well as improved Sino-British relations [2] Capital Flows - The hawkish nomination of Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair has influenced market expectations, with a slight decrease in the anticipated number of rate cuts for 2026 [3] - Global liquidity remained stable, with significant capital inflows into China, the U.S., South Korea, India, and Europe [3] - The largest incremental capital inflow into Hong Kong stocks came from the Hong Kong Stock Connect [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that approximately 62.3% of respondents believe that the A-share market will rise in the next 12 months, showing a slight decrease of 0.8 percentage points from September [1] - There is a divergence in sentiment among different investor groups; individual investors show increased confidence, while financial industry professionals have lowered their expectations for both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [1] - The net increase in the proportion of respondents willing to invest in stocks is 13.9%, which is a decline of 5.1 percentage points compared to the previous survey [1] Group 2 - The valuation metric for A-shares, calculated by dividing the total market capitalization of all A-share listed companies at the end of 2025 by the TTM net profit as of the end of Q3 2025, shows an increase of 21.5% compared to the end of 2024, while TTM net profit only grew by 0.8%, indicating that the market rise is primarily driven by valuation expansion rather than profit improvement [2] - Despite external challenges such as fluctuating U.S. trade policies and increased global uncertainty, China's economy achieved a real GDP growth rate of 5.0% for the year, demonstrating resilience, although growth momentum is slowing [2] - Structural challenges to boosting domestic demand include changes in population structure and cyclical adjustments in the real estate market; it is suggested that stabilizing the real estate sector and increasing birth rates are crucial for future economic growth [2]

Market Performance - Emerging markets saw a narrowing increase of 0.9%, while developed markets declined by 0.6%, with the MSCI Global index down 0.4%[9] - The Japanese 10Y government bond yield rose by 7.1 basis points, while the French yield saw the largest decline of 2.3 basis points[9] - COMEX silver and gold prices increased by 14.5% and 8% respectively, indicating strong performance in precious metals[9] Investor Sentiment - Trading volume in the A-share and Hong Kong markets decreased, with the Hang Seng Index trading volume down to 143 billion shares and $639 billion[21] - The short-selling ratio in Hong Kong increased to 13.1%, indicating a slight rise in bearish sentiment among investors[21] Earnings Expectations - The earnings forecast for the Hang Seng Index for 2025 was revised down from 2069 to 2065, while the S&P 500's forecast was adjusted up from 273 to 274[69] - The financial sector in Hong Kong saw the largest upward revision in earnings expectations, while the consumer staples sector experienced the most significant downward adjustment[69] Economic Outlook - The U.S. economic surprise index rose, reflecting a potential recovery, while the European index declined amid trade tensions[69] - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates in January, with a projected average of 1.8 rate cuts for 2026[52] Capital Flows - Recent capital inflows into the Hong Kong market totaled HKD 155 billion, with stable foreign capital contributing HKD 184 billion[64] - The overall liquidity in the U.S. is expected to remain stable, with the SOFR-OIS spread widening, indicating a slight increase in liquidity risk[52]

Market Performance - Emerging markets saw a narrowing increase, while developed markets declined, with MSCI Global down 0.4%, MSCI Developed Markets down 0.6%, and MSCI Emerging Markets up 0.9% [9][15] - In the bond market, Japan's 10Y government bond yield rose significantly by 7.1 basis points, while France's yield saw the largest decline of 2.3 basis points [9][17] - Commodities like COMEX silver and gold experienced notable increases, with silver up 14.5% [9][15] Trading Sentiment - Global trading sentiment showed divergence, with increased trading volumes in Japan and South Korea, while trading volumes in Hong Kong and the US decreased [21] - The short-selling ratio in Hong Kong rose to 13.1%, indicating a high level of investor sentiment, while North American sentiment remains historically elevated [21][23] Economic Expectations - The US economic surprise index increased, influenced by easing geopolitical tensions and dovish expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's leadership [9][52] - The European economic surprise index decreased amid renewed trade tensions between the US and Europe [9][52] Earnings Expectations - The earnings forecast for the Hang Seng Index for 2026 was marginally revised down from 2069 to 2065, with the financial sector seeing the largest upward revision [71] - The S&P 500's earnings forecast for 2025 was adjusted up from 273 to 274, with the financial sector also showing the most significant upward revision [71]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stocks, with the entry of incremental funds at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. - For bonds, the improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. - For precious metals, if the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to be volatile. For example, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term; aluminum prices are expected to remain high; zinc and lead prices are expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [13][15][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom; iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level; glass and soda ash markets are generally weak; coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate in a range [32][34][37]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be treated neutrally; the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised; methanol has the feasibility of buying on dips; urea is recommended to take profits on rallies [55][57][59]. - For agricultural products, the short - term trend of hog prices is expected to be stable or slightly rising, and different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods; egg prices are expected to be stable or rising, and different strategies are also recommended for different contract periods [79][80][81]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products promoted a "soft landing" of the EU's anti - subsidy case on electric vehicles; Lihong No.1 completed its first sub - orbital flight test; Brain - Machine Haihe Laboratory completed the first "space brain - machine interface experiment"; prices of multiple non - ferrous and precious metal futures reached new highs [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: Different ratios are provided for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts in different periods [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With incremental funds entering at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the closing prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed by 0.30%, 0.07%, 0.05%, and 0.00% respectively. The Canadian Prime Minister will visit China, and the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued relevant policies on government investment funds [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 861 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Monday, with a net investment of 361 billion yuan [6][7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 1.31%, and Shanghai silver rose 7.23%. The US federal prosecutor launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, which impacted the Fed's independence [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: If the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Silver prices were strong, and the domestic equity market strengthened, driving copper prices to rise. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has weakened, and short - term sentiment may cool down. The copper mine supply is in a tight pattern, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [13]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: The general atmosphere of bulk commodities was strong, and aluminum prices fluctuated and rose. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The high - level fluctuations of precious metals and non - ferrous metals have increased, and short - term sentiment may cool down. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high [15]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and LME zinc also increased. Zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly [16][17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc price has a large room for catch - up compared with copper and aluminum. It is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [18]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and LME lead also increased. Lead ingot social inventory increased [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is approaching the upper edge of the long - term oscillation range, and it is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [19]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded, and the prices of nickel ore and nickel iron also changed accordingly [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oversupply pressure of nickel is still large, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [20][21]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose significantly. The supply in Myanmar is gradually recovering, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin market demand is weak, and the supply is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see. The price is expected to fluctuate following the market risk preference [22]. 3.2.7 Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot index of carbonate lithium rose, and the futures price also increased [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The "rush to export" effect has increased the demand expectation, but the rapid rise may increase the callback risk. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [23]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose, and the inventory continued to accumulate [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The mine price is expected to decline, and the alumina market continues to face over - capacity. It is recommended to wait and see and consider shorting on rallies [25]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price was stable, and the social inventory decreased [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The optimistic expectation of Indonesia's RKAB supports the price. The price is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term [27]. 3.2.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy rose, and the inventory increased slightly [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost is strong, and the supply is disturbed. The price is expected to remain high in the short term [29]. 3.3 Black Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased, and the inventory of rebar increased slightly while that of hot - rolled coil decreased slightly [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom. It is necessary to pay attention to the de - stocking of hot - rolled coil and relevant policies [32]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract price rose, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipment is in the off - season, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level. It is necessary to pay attention to the steel mill's replenishment and iron - making rhythm [34]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract price decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The soda ash main contract price increased, and the inventory increased [35][37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see. The soda ash market is generally weak [36][37]. 3.3.4 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke rose. The spot prices of coking coal and coke also changed [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The commodity market sentiment is positive, but the fundamental support for the price is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate in a range [40][41]. 3.3.5 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose. The spot prices also changed [42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future market trend is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [45]. 3.3.6 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon rose slightly, and the price of polysilicon decreased. The inventory of industrial silicon may increase, and the supply of polysilicon may be adjusted [46][48]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is expected to face inventory pressure, and polysilicon is expected to be weak and volatile. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant policies and production plans [47][49]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price fluctuated and rebounded. The tire start - up rate had marginal fluctuations, and the inventory increased [51][53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall commodity atmosphere is positive, but the rubber seasonality is weak. A neutral strategy is recommended, and short - selling can be considered if the price falls below a certain level [55]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main contract price of INE crude oil rose, and the inventories of refined oil products changed [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Latin American geopolitical situation does not have enough positive impact on the overall oil price, but the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised [57]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol changed, and the main contract price decreased [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current valuation of methanol is low, and it has the feasibility of buying on dips [59]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of urea changed slightly, and the main contract price increased [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The import window has opened, and it is recommended to take profits on rallies [62]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene rose. The inventory of pure benzene increased, and the inventory of styrene decreased [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene can be long - bought before the first quarter [64]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic PVC market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to short on rallies [66]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ethylene glycol market needs to increase production cuts to improve the supply - demand pattern. It is necessary to beware of rebound risks [68]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. It is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips [70]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [71][72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene load is high, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities following the crude oil price [73]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may be supported, and it is recommended to long - buy the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [75]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP main contract price rose, and the inventory situation was complex [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [77]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Hogs - **Market Information**: The domestic hog price was mixed, and the price may stabilize or rise slightly [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term hog price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [80]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price mostly rose, and the price is expected to be stable or rise [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term egg price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [82]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The protein meal futures price fluctuated. The import cost of soybeans may have a bottom, but the fundamental situation is weak [83][84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to the combination of long - and short - term factors [84]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The oil futures price fluctuated. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia increased, and the domestic three - major oil inventories were at a relatively high level [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current fundamental situation is weak, but the long - term expectation is optimistic. The oil price may be close to the bottom [86]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The spot price of sugar decreased slightly [87]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The international sugar price may rebound after February, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [89]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price decreased. The cotton supply and demand situation changed [90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price may fluctuate after rising. It is recommended to wait for a callback to buy [91].

Group 1 - Precious metals experienced a collective surge, with spot gold opening high and rising by $55 to surpass $4,370 per ounce, marking a 1.27% increase [2] - Spot silver saw an intraday increase of up to 3%, reaching $73 per ounce [3] - Both spot platinum and palladium also rose by over 2% [5] Group 2 - Guosen Securities noted that the recent surge in silver prices, exceeding historical levels, is primarily due to the industrial demand elasticity, supported by positive economic expectations and low domestic silver inventories in China [6] - The demand for silver is driven by growth in industrial applications, particularly in photovoltaic and electronics sectors, leading to a persistent supply gap [7] - There is a divergence in market opinions regarding silver's performance; some believe it is nearing the end of its upward trend, while others argue that its increasing importance in technology sectors may lead to a new market cycle [7][8] Group 3 - Dongwu Futures indicated that the long-term fundamentals, driven by global technological and green industry developments, provide solid support for silver demand, although the current excessive price increase poses a risk of significant corrections [8]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monetary policy adjustments to address the structural imbalance of "strong supply and weak demand" in the economy, indicating a shift towards a more coordinated and forward-looking approach in policy implementation [17] International News - The U.S. government has announced a delay in imposing additional tariffs on Chinese chips for at least 18 months, signaling an effort to stabilize U.S.-China relations [11] - Japan has revised its economic growth forecast for the fiscal year 2025 to 1.1%, up from 0.7%, due to lower-than-expected negative impacts from U.S. tariffs [11] - Israeli officials have indicated potential military conflict with Iran, focusing on Iran's efforts to rebuild its ballistic missile arsenal [11] Domestic News - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has released 30 billion yuan in medium-term liquidity through MLF and reverse repos, with a total net injection of 49.61 billion yuan for the year [13] - Hainan Free Trade Port reported over 400 million yuan in zero-tariff imports during its first week of closure, demonstrating a positive impact on the consumer market [14] - The Shanghai government has issued measures to support the G60 Science and Technology Corridor, including financial support for aerospace industry development [14] - Guangzhou has introduced 18 measures to support the gaming and esports industry, with individual companies eligible for up to 10 million yuan in financial support [15] Company Updates - Xiaomi held a product launch event, introducing the Xiaomi 17 Ultra with a starting price of 6,999 yuan, and reported cumulative deliveries of over 500,000 units for its automotive division [16] - Samsung plans to launch its own GPU integrated into the Exynos 2800 chip by 2027, joining a select group of companies capable of designing GPUs [16] - Dyson has made significant changes to its family wealth management structure, transferring at least 624 million pounds to a Singapore holding company [16] - Yichang Technology signed a share transfer agreement to transfer 25.33% of its shares to a partner for 850 million yuan [16] - Zhongwei Co. has entered a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Xinwanda Power Technology to collaborate on solid-state battery technology [16] - Zhongding Co. is establishing a joint venture for humanoid robot manufacturing with two other companies [16]

Market Performance - Developed markets outperformed last week, with MSCI Global at +0.0%, MSCI Developed Markets at +0.2%, and MSCI Emerging Markets at -1.5% [9] - Among developed markets, the UK FTSE 100 showed the strongest performance at +2.6%, while the South Korean Composite Index was the weakest at -3.5% [9] - In the emerging markets, the Shanghai Composite Index performed best at +0.0%, while the ChiNext Index was the worst at -2.3% [9] Trading Sentiment - Significant increase in trading volume for European and American stock indices, while Hong Kong and A-share trading volumes decreased [23] - The short-selling ratio in Hong Kong rose to 17.5%, indicating low investor sentiment, while North American sentiment reached a historical high with the NAAIM Manager Exposure Index at 100.7% [23][27] - Volatility decreased in Hong Kong, US, and European markets, while Japanese market volatility increased [23] Earnings Expectations - Hong Kong's earnings expectations for 2025 were slightly revised upward, with the Hang Seng Index's EPS forecast adjusted from 2064 to 2065 [73] - The S&P 500's EPS forecast for 2025 remained stable at 273, with the technology sector seeing the largest upward revision [73] - European earnings expectations for the STOXX50 index remained unchanged at 330, with telecommunications showing the most significant upward revision [74] Economic Expectations - Economic sentiment indicators showed a decline across major markets, with the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the US, Europe, and China all decreasing [5] - Factors contributing to the decline include cautious Fed rate cut expectations, lower inflation data, and disappointing employment figures [5] Fund Flows - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on rate cuts for 2026 was noted, with market expectations for two rate cuts remaining unchanged from the previous week [58] - Global liquidity trends indicated a tightening of dollar liquidity, with significant inflows into mainland China, the US, Japan, India, and South Korea [66] - In Hong Kong, a total of 55 billion HKD flowed into the stock market, with flexible foreign capital inflows of 97 billion HKD [68]

Market Performance - Global indices experienced a slight increase last week, with the MSCI Global down by 0.3%, MSCI Developed Markets down by 0.3%, and MSCI Emerging Markets up by 0.3% [1] - The Hang Seng Index's volatility reached its lowest level since 2022, while the Chinese technology sector saw gains, contrasting with significant pullbacks in developed market technology stocks [1] Earnings Expectations - Hong Kong's earnings expectations were marginally revised downwards, with the Hang Seng Index's 2025 EPS forecast adjusted from 2079 to 2060 [2] - In contrast, the S&P 500's 2025 EPS forecast remained stable at 273, and the Eurozone STOXX 50's forecast was maintained at 330 [2] Economic Outlook - Economic indicators showed a rebound in major markets, with the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the US, Europe, and China all rising, supported by factors such as anticipated Fed rate cuts and improved service sector performance in Europe [2] Capital Flows - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in December and restart bond purchases at a rate of $40 billion per month [3] - Market liquidity tightened, with the SOFR-OIS spread widening, while capital flows were primarily directed towards China, the US, Japan, India, and South Korea [3]

Market Performance - Global indices mostly rose last week, with MSCI Global up by 0.6%, MSCI Developed Markets up by 0.6%, and MSCI Emerging Markets up by 0.9% [7][31] - Among developed markets, Nikkei 225 had the strongest performance with a gain of 6.3%, while the Australian S&P 200 was the weakest, down by 1.5% [7][31] - In emerging markets, the Mexican MXX index performed best with a rise of 2.7%, while the Hang Seng Index was the worst performer, down by 1.0% [7][31] Trading Sentiment - Global trading volume generally improved, with North American holdings index reaching a historical high [21] - The trading volume for major indices such as the Shanghai Composite, S&P 500, and Nikkei 225 saw fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng Index experiencing declines [21][27] - Investor sentiment in Hong Kong improved but remained at a historical low, while sentiment in the US was at a historical high [21][28] Fundamental Analysis - Earnings expectations for US tech and consumer discretionary sectors were significantly revised upwards during the earnings season [63] - The S&P 500's 2025 EPS earnings expectation was adjusted from 269 to 270, with the technology sector seeing the largest upward revision of +2.4 [63][64] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index's 2025 EPS earnings expectation was revised from 2062 to 2066, with the materials sector seeing the largest increase [63][64] Economic Outlook - Major market sentiment indicators showed a rebound, with the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the US rising due to the Fed's rate cut and improved earnings from tech giants [7][63] - The European Economic Surprise Index also increased, supported by stable ECB rates and a temporary easing of political tensions in France [7][63] - The Chinese Economic Surprise Index rose, bolstered by positive Q3 data and favorable policies [7][63] Capital Flows - The Federal Reserve cut rates as expected, but there were hawkish signals regarding future cuts [52] - As of October 31, market expectations indicated the Fed would cut rates 0.68 times by year-end, a decrease from the previous week [52][53] - Global liquidity trends showed significant inflows into the US, China, India, Japan, and South Korea, with Hong Kong seeing substantial inflows through the Stock Connect program [58][62]