北美经理人持仓自 10 月高点回落 ——全球股市立体投资策略周报 11 月第 2 期 本报告导读： 上周全球指数小幅收涨，欧股港股成交放量，北美经理人持仓指数继续回落。资金 面上，多位美联储官员放鹰，12 月联储降息边际趋弱。基本面上，港美科技与创新 药盈利预期上修，主要市场经济景气预期不同程度回落。 投资要点： 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 策 略 研 究 海 外 策 略 | 1. | 市场表现：上周全球市场小幅收涨 3 | | --- | --- | | 2. | 交投情绪：上周欧洲/中国香港市场成交放量 4 | | 3. | 资金流动：上周美联储放鹰降息预期再降温 8 | | 4. | 基本面：上周港美科技股/创新药盈利上修 10 | | 5. | 风险提示 13 | 研 究 策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.11.17 2025-11-18 [Table_Summary] 市场表现：全球市场小幅收涨。股市方面，MSCI 全球+0.4%，其中 MSCI 发达市场+0.4%、MSCI 新兴市场+0.2%。债市方面，美国 10Y 利 率上行。大宗方面，银铜涨幅居前。 ...

智通财经记者 | 张晓云 11月13日，在上海举办的"安客尔全球远航论坛——扬帆出海，领航世界"主题论坛上，中信银行上海分 行国际业务部副总经理薛刚、普华永道税务及商务咨询合伙人王麒源、安客尔集团大中华区董事总经理 孙蔚蔚等业界人士，围绕出海实践中的痛点、风险点及破局路径展开深度对话，披露了一线服务中的典 型案例与实操经验。 合规资金双重承压 在全球地缘政治复杂多变的背景下，中国企业出海正面临合规门槛抬高、资金流动受限、本土化运营受 阻等多重挑战。合规与增长如何协同推进，成为企业全球化布局的核心命题。 当前，企业出海正从"规模扩张"向"质量提升"转型，合规与资金的双重压力成为制约增长的关键瓶颈。 资金跨境流动的效率与安全性难题，让不少出海企业陷入运营困境。王麒源结合服务案例指出，新兴市 场的资金供应不稳定、临时资金需求难快速满足，是企业普遍面临的痛点。 他表示，以墨西哥市场为例，当地资金环境波动曾导致多家中国企业出现运营资金缺口。传统ODI（对 外直接投资）资金出境模式灵活性不足，企业需通过多元化交易设计破局，比如当地租赁、融资租赁等 方式盘活资产，同时建立弹性资金储备机制。 薛刚表示，中信银行在出海企业服务 ...

以下文章来源于一观大势 ，作者国泰海通策略团队 一观大势 . 中国宏观策略与全球资本投资 报告导读： 本期市场成交热度下降，交易集中度下降，从资金层面看，偏股公募基金新发 行边际回落，融资资金流入放缓，但外资资金加速流入 A 股与港股。 市场定价状态： 市场成交热度下降，交易集中度下降。 1 ）市场情绪（下降）： 本期市场交易换手率降低， 全 A 日均成交额下降至 2.0 万亿， 日均涨停 家数降至 68.4 家 ，最大连板数为 8 个，封板率提升至 70.4% ，龙虎榜上榜家数上升至 60 家； 2 ）赚钱效应（上升）：本期个股上涨比例提升至 54.77% ，全 A 个股周度收益中位数提升至 0.6% ； 3 ）交易集中度（下降）：行业交易集中度降低，本期行业换手率历史分位数处于 90% 以上的行业有 8 个，其中电力设备及新能源 1 个行业换手率处于 95% 以上。 A 股资金流动：偏股基金新发行边际回落，融资资金流入放缓，但外资流入加速。 1 ）公募：本期偏股基金新发规模下降至 218.4 亿，公募基金股票仓位整 体较上期略减； 2 ）私募： 10 月私募信心指数小幅回落，仓位持续逼近年内最高（截至 1 ...

策 略 研 究 融资资金重回流入，公募基金发行提速 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) 投资者微观行为洞察手册·10 月第 3 期 本报告导读： 本期市场成交热度有所下降，资金层面上偏股基金发行边际抬升，融资资金流入加 速，而外资资金小幅流出 A 股与港股。 投资要点： 策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.10.27 | | 021-38031658 | | --- | --- | | | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 郭胤含(分析师) | | | 021-38031691 | | | guoyinhan@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524100001 | | | 田开轩(分析师) | | | 021-38038673 | | | tiankaixuan@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524080006 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 | 成交活跃度下降，创业板指领涨 2025.10.25 | | --- | | 电子产业链景气延续，耐用品需求透支 | | 2025 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report focuses on the performance of the ETF fund market from October 13th to October 17th, summarizing the performance and fund flows of the overall ETF market, different popular segmented ETF funds, and innovative theme and segmented industry ETF funds for investors' reference [1]. - During this period, most stock ETFs declined. Commodity ETFs had the largest increase, with an average gain of 9.05% for funds above a certain scale. Conversely, Hong Kong TMT ETFs, A-share TMT ETFs, and Hong Kong mid - stream manufacturing ETFs had significant drops, with average declines of 7.71%, 6.93%, and 6.93% respectively for funds above a certain scale [2][5]. - Funds flowed significantly into commodity ETFs and Hong Kong TMT ETFs, with net inflows of 20.745 billion yuan and 16.662 billion yuan respectively for the whole week. In contrast, bond ETFs and A-share large - cap ETFs had significant outflows, with net outflows of 13.897 billion yuan and 10.668 billion yuan respectively for the whole week [3][7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 ETF Market Overall Performance - **Market Performance**: Most stock ETFs declined. Commodity ETFs led the increase, while Hong Kong TMT ETFs, A-share TMT ETFs, and Hong Kong mid - stream manufacturing ETFs had large drops [2][5]. - **Fund Flows**: Commodity ETFs and Hong Kong TMT ETFs saw large inflows, while bond ETFs and A-share large - cap ETFs had large outflows [3][7]. 3.2 Different Popular Segmented Type ETF Fund Market Performance - **A - share ETFs**: Include various types such as broad - based index (full - market, large - cap/super large - cap, small - and medium - cap, science and technology/growth enterprise board), industry (TMT, new energy, consumption, medicine, cycle, finance and real estate), SmartBeta (value, growth, dividend, free cash flow), and theme ETFs. Each type has different performance in terms of fund scale, weekly fund flow, weekly return, recent one - month return, and year - to - date return [15][16][17]. - **Hong Kong ETFs**: Comprise broad - based index, industry (TMT, mid - stream manufacturing, consumption, medicine, finance and real estate), SmartBeta (dividend), and theme ETFs, with different performance indicators [30][31][32]. - **Shanghai - Hong Kong - Shenzhen ETFs**: Include industry and theme ETFs, showing different performance [38][39]. - **US Stock ETFs**: Divided into broad - based index and industry ETFs, with corresponding performance [40][41]. - **Other QDII - ETFs (excluding Hong Kong/US stocks)**: Have different performance in terms of fund scale, weekly fund flow, etc. [42]. - **Bond ETFs**: Show different performance in terms of fund scale, weekly fund flow, and return [43]. - **Commodity ETFs**: Generally performed well, with significant inflows and high returns [44]. 3.3 Innovative Theme and Segmented Industry ETF Fund Market Performance - **TMT Innovative Themes**: Include themes such as animation and games, film and television, fintech, etc., with different weekly and year - to - date returns [46]. - **Consumption Segmented Industries**: Such as liquor, food and beverage, household appliances, etc., have different performance [47]. - **Medicine Segmented Industries**: Include vaccine biotechnology, traditional Chinese medicine, innovative drugs, etc., with different returns [48]. - **New Energy Themes**: Such as power utilities, green power, photovoltaic industry, etc., have different performance [49]. - **Central and State - owned Enterprise Themes**: Include various central and state - owned enterprise - related themes, with different weekly and year - to - date returns [50][51]. - **Stable Growth Themes**: Such as coal, real estate, non - ferrous metals, etc., have different performance [52]. - **Shanghai - Hong Kong - Shenzhen/Hong Kong Stock Connect Segmented Industries**: Include internet, securities, medicine, etc., with different returns [53]. - **Dividend/Dividend Low - Volatility Index Families**: Different dividend - related indexes have different performance [54]. - **Growth Enterprise Board Index Families**: Different growth enterprise board - related indexes have different performance [55].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the market, suggesting that trading will continue to rise from now on, despite some potential short-term challenges [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that despite technical setups not showing an "unrestricted" green light, there are supportive factors for continued upward movement in the market [1]. - Historical data shows that after the Federal Reserve maintains interest rates for six months or longer, stock fund inflows typically increase by 6% over the following 12 months, supporting a moderate market rise expectation [2]. - Investor sentiment has rebounded, with the latest AAII bull-bear reading at 0.98, indicating a stronger bullish sentiment compared to earlier in the year [4]. - The report notes that despite high stock prices, investor positioning sentiment indicators remain low, suggesting room for growth [7]. - There is a significant net inflow into global equities, particularly from domestic investors into U.S. stocks, indicating strong demand [15]. Summary by Sections 1. Fund Flows - The report states that stock fund inflows have been robust, with a notable increase of $68 billion in the past week, contrasting with a $10 billion outflow the previous week [15]. 2. Sentiment - The sentiment indicators show a rebound, with institutional investors finding reasons to increase their positions in the U.S. stock market [4][7]. 3. Asset Management Positioning - CFTC data indicates that asset managers' net positions are significantly below levels seen a year ago, suggesting potential for growth in this area [12]. 4. Hedge Fund Positioning - Hedge funds have seen an increase in overall leverage, reaching 287.5%, indicating a bullish stance in the market [14]. 5. Retail Activity - Retail purchases have shown impressive growth, with no signs of slowing down, contributing positively to the S&P 500 performance [22]. 6. Liquidity - The report notes that liquidity levels are currently high, with the S&P liquidity at $20.42 million, significantly above the two-year average [27]. 7. Market Challenges - The report mentions upcoming challenges, such as the anticipated $22 billion in stock sales by U.S. pension funds at the end of the month, which could pose a technical obstacle [29].

Core Viewpoint - Global markets experienced mixed performance last week, with increased trading activity and heightened market observation. There are indications from multiple Federal Reserve officials suggesting a potential interest rate cut in September, with market expectations of approximately two rate cuts within the year. Additionally, economic forecasts for both the US and China have been marginally revised upwards, while earnings expectations for US tech stocks in 2026 continue to be upgraded, and those for Hong Kong stocks have been slightly downgraded [1]. Market Performance - Global markets showed mixed results last week, with MSCI Global down by 0.4%, MSCI Developed down by 0.4%, and MSCI Emerging down by 0.6%. In the bond market, French 10Y government bond yields saw a significant increase. In commodities, silver prices led the gains. Currency-wise, the US dollar strengthened, the British pound depreciated, the Japanese yen remained stable, and the Chinese yuan appreciated. Sector-wise, the materials sector in Hong Kong led the gains, while the energy sector in the US showed relative strength [2]. Trading Sentiment - Overall trading sentiment in global stock markets improved last week, with increased trading volumes in indices such as the Hang Seng Index, S&P 500, European Stoxx 50, and Nikkei 225, while the Korean Kospi 200 saw a decline in trading volume. Investor sentiment in Hong Kong and the US decreased but remained at historically high levels. Volatility increased in Hong Kong, US, and European markets, while it decreased in Japan. Valuations for both developed and emerging markets saw a decline compared to the previous week [2]. Earnings Expectations - Earnings expectations for Hong Kong's consumer discretionary sector were downgraded last week. Comparatively, US earnings expectations for 2025 showed the best performance, followed by European and Hong Kong markets, with Japan lagging. Specifically, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index 2025 EPS forecast was revised down from 2190 to 2140. The S&P 500's 2025 EPS forecast was adjusted from 268 to 269, while the Eurozone STOXX 50's 2025 EPS forecast was slightly increased from 335 to 336 [3]. Economic Expectations - Economic forecasts for both the US and China were revised upwards last week. The Citigroup US Economic Surprise Index increased, benefiting from expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and strong earnings reports from tech leaders like Nvidia. Conversely, the European Economic Surprise Index declined, likely due to a drop in the Eurozone Economic Sentiment Index in August. China's Economic Surprise Index rose, attributed to policy expectations, increased retail participation, and structural highlights in earnings reports [3]. Capital Flows - Global macro liquidity showed a slight easing last week. Recent comments from several Federal Reserve officials indicated a potential rate cut in September. As of August 29, futures market implied rates suggested expectations of approximately 2.2 rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, an increase from the previous week. Last week, US dollar liquidity tightened marginally. In terms of micro liquidity, July saw capital inflows primarily into India, Europe, Hong Kong, and South Korea, with flexible foreign capital and net inflows into Hong Kong stocks last week [4].

Deposit Trends - In July, household deposits decreased by 1100 billion (1.1 trillion) RMB, a year-on-year increase of 780 billion (0.78 trillion) RMB [1][2] - Corporate deposits decreased by 1500 billion (1.5 trillion) RMB in July, a year-on-year decrease of 320.9 billion RMB [1] - Non-bank deposits increased by 2100 billion (2.1 trillion) RMB in July, a year-on-year increase of 1400 billion (1.4 trillion) RMB [1][2] - Government deposits increased by 861.7 billion RMB in July, a year-on-year increase of 358.2 billion RMB [1] - The shift of deposits from residents to non-bank institutions is evident [1][2] Market Implications - Historically, a surge in non-bank deposits often reflects a trend of residents moving savings into the stock market [1] - Increased non-bank deposits are associated with residents directly entering the market via bank-securities transfers and indirectly via investments in equity funds and wealth management products [1][2] - Historically, significant year-on-year increases in non-bank deposits have corresponded with surges in new account openings and rising margin loan balances, often accompanied by positive stock market performance [1] Monetary Environment - The growth of social financing (TSF) in July was supported by government bonds, with the rolling year-on-year growth rate of new TSF continuing to rise [2] - The structure of social financing is relatively weak, with slight declines in short-term and medium-to-long-term loans to both residents and enterprises, indicating relatively sluggish demand for real economy credit [2] - With limited economic activity, resident deposits continue to be activated, with M1 growth continuing to rise in July while the M2-M1 spread continues to narrow [2] - As deposit rates continue to fall this year, coupled with continued improvement in stock market profitability, resident deposits are gradually flowing into the capital market to seek higher returns, and resident investment behavior is showing a gradual trend of becoming more active [2]

Market Performance - Global markets rebounded last week, with MSCI Global up by 2.3%, MSCI Developed up by 2.4%, and MSCI Emerging up by 1.8% [1] - The Hong Kong cyclical sector led the gains, while US tech and consumer discretionary sectors performed well, and European financials and real estate showed strong performance [1] - US 10Y Treasury yields increased, and oil prices saw significant gains [1] Trading Sentiment - Trading volume increased in US and European markets, while Japanese and Korean markets saw a decrease [1] - Investor sentiment in Hong Kong decreased but remained at historical highs, while US investor sentiment increased and also reached historical highs [1] - Volatility decreased in Hong Kong, US, and European markets, while Japanese market volatility increased [1] - Overall valuations in developed and emerging markets improved compared to the previous week [1] Earnings Expectations - Earnings expectations were revised upward across major markets, with Japanese stocks showing the best performance in 2025 EPS expectations [2] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index 2025 EPS expectation was revised from 2192 to 2194 [2] - US S&P 500 Index 2025 EPS expectation was revised from 267 to 268 [2] - European STOXX 50 Index 2025 EPS expectation remained unchanged at 335 [2] Economic Expectations - China's economic expectations were marginally revised upward, influenced by positive policy sentiments and overseas technology developments [2] - The US and European economic surprise indices declined, affected by various geopolitical and economic factors [2] Capital Flows - Global macro liquidity expectations remained stable, with a slight increase in expectations for US Federal Reserve rate cuts following the non-farm payroll data [3] - As of August 8, market expectations indicated a 2.3 rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year, a decrease from the previous week [3] - There was a net inflow into Hong Kong stocks from the southbound trading, while foreign capital outflow from Hong Kong stocks was noted [3]

Capital Flow - Eurozone bond market saw nearly €100 billion (approximately $116 billion) of foreign capital inflows in May [1] - This indicates a shift of funds from the US market to Eurozone assets [1]