报告导读： 上周全球市场普遍反弹，港股周期板块领涨，美股科技 + 可选消费占优，欧 洲金融 + 地产表现居前。 8 月初美国非农数据披露后降息预期升温，市场预期美联储年内 降息 2-3 次 。上周主要市场盈利预期不同程度上修，中国经济预期边际改善。 盈利预期：上周主要市场盈利预期不同程度上修。 横向对比来看，上周日股 2025 年盈利预期边际变化表现最优，港股、美股次之，欧股表现最末。其中： 1 ）港股盈利预期上修，恒生指数 2025 年 EPS 盈利预期从 2192 上修至 2194 。 2 ）美股盈利预期上修，标普 500 指数 2025 年 EPS 盈利预期从 267 上修至 268 。 3 ）欧股盈利预期持平，欧元区 STOXX50 指数 2025 年 EPS 盈利预期持平在 335 。 经济预期：上周中国经济预期边际上修。 从经济领先指数看，过去一周，花旗美国经济意外指数下降，主要受美印关税谈判受阻、关税通胀传导预期、美联 储内部降息分歧等影响；欧洲经济意外指数下降，或受俄乌局势影响；花旗中国经济意外指数上升，或受益于反内卷 + 育儿等积极政策情绪催化、海外科技 大模型映射等。 资金流动：上周全球宏 ...

Group 1 - Berkshire Hathaway's stock has underperformed since Warren Buffett announced his retirement plans, with a decline of over 12% since May 3, reducing year-to-date gains to 4.5%, lagging behind the S&P 500's 7% increase [2] - The B-class shares of Berkshire Hathaway are on track to record their longest monthly losing streak since June 2022 if they close down in July, marking a significant shift after a record 573 days above the 200-day moving average [3] - Buffett has lowered expectations for Berkshire's performance, suggesting it will only slightly outperform the average of U.S. companies due to the large cash reserves making significant investment impacts unlikely [3] Group 2 - Despite recent challenges, Buffett's long-term performance record remains exceptional, with Berkshire's average annual return being double that of the S&P 500 since the 1960s, and a total return of 5,502,284% from 1964 to 2024 [3]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - On July 18, the four major A-share stock indices were all strong. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.5% to close at 3534.48 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.37% to close at 10913.84 points, the ChiNext Index rose 0.34% to close at 2277.15 points, and the STAR 50 Index rose 0.19% to close at 1007.53 points. Market turnover was 1593.3 billion yuan, an increase of 33 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In terms of industry sectors, non-ferrous metals (+2.1%), basic chemicals (+1.36%), and steel (+1.34%) led the gains; media (-0.98%), electronics (-0.49%), and light manufacturing (-0.41%) led the losses [2]. - In terms of market strength, IH > IF > IC > IM. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 2,600/247/2,567 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of -13.5 billion, -12.1 billion, 3.6 billion, and 22 billion yuan respectively, with changes of -25.9 billion, -6.7 billion, +13.1 billion, and +19.5 billion yuan respectively [2]. 2. Stock Index Futures - Basis: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 62.07, 45.61, 4.55, and -3.68 points respectively. The annualized basis yields were -11.28%, -8.9%, -1.33%, and 1.59% respectively, and the three - year historical quantiles were 29%, 18%, 45%, and 66% respectively [3]. - Trading strategy: In the medium to long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock index as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [3]. 3. Treasury Bond Futures - Spot bonds: The current active contract is the 2509 contract. For the 2 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250006.IB, with a yield change of -1 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.008, and an IRR of 1.56%; for the 5 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 240020.IB, with a yield change of +0.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.01, and an IRR of 1.57%; for the 10 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250007.IB, with a yield change of +0 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.041, and an IRR of 1.26%; for the 30 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, with a yield change of +1.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.031, and an IRR of 1.36% [4]. - Funding situation: In open - market operations, the central bank injected 187.5 billion yuan and withdrew 84.7 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 102.8 billion yuan [4]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the medium to long term [4]. 4. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the real estate market has recently contracted in terms of prosperity, while the manufacturing sector has seen a recovery in prosperity as industrial added value in June exceeded the same period [11].

Report Overview - The report is a financial futures early morning newsletter by China Merchants Futures Co., Ltd. dated July 10, 2025, covering stock index futures, treasury bond futures and economic data [1][2] 分组1: Report Highlights - **Stock Index Futures**: On the 7th, most of the four major A - share stock indexes adjusted. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.13% to 3493.05 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.06% to 10581.8 points, the ChiNext Index rose 0.16% to 2184.67 points, and the STAR 50 Index fell 0.89% to 983.11 points. Market turnover was 152.74 billion yuan, an increase of 5.28 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and commercial and retail had the highest increases, while non - ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and electronics had the largest declines. From the perspective of market strength, IF>IH>IM>IC. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 1856/236/3324 respectively. The net inflows of institutional, main, large - scale and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were - 11.9 billion, - 16.7 billion, 3.4 billion, and 25.2 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 22.4 billion, - 12.8 billion, + 14.7 billion, and + 20.4 billion yuan respectively. The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts were 101.47, 76.89, 29.6, and 16.12 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 14.18%, - 11.53%, - 6.62%, and - 5.25% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 17%, 11%, 19%, and 22% respectively. The trading strategy is to recommend buying IF, IC, and IM forward contracts on dips [2] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On the 7th, most of the yields of treasury bond futures declined. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.334, up 0.66 bps from the previous day; the implied interest rate of the five - year bond was 1.464, down 3.53 bps; the implied interest rate of the ten - year bond was 1.573, down 0.37 bps; and the implied interest rate of the thirty - year bond was 1.906, down 0.46 bps. In terms of cash bonds, the CTD bonds, yield changes, corresponding net basis, and IRR of different - term treasury bond futures were provided. In terms of the capital side, the central bank's currency investment was 7.55 billion yuan, currency withdrawal was 9.85 billion yuan, and the net withdrawal was 2.3 billion yuan. The trading strategy is to suggest short - term long and long - term short, buying T and TL on dips in the short - term and hedging T and TL on rallies in the long - term [2] - **Economic Data**: High - frequency data shows that the recent real estate market sentiment has contracted, while the other four items are similar to the same period [10] 分组2: Core Viewpoints - For stock index futures, in the short - term, the stock index discount has returned to an extreme position; in the medium - to - long - term, the report maintains the judgment of going long on the economy, and currently using stock index long positions as a substitute has certain excess returns [2] - For treasury bond futures, the long - end long - position strength is strong, betting on a further decline in future policy interest rates [2] 分组3: Summary by Directory (一) Stock Index Futures Spot Market Performance - The report provides detailed performance data of various stock index futures contracts such as IC, IF, IH, and IM, including code, name, price change percentage, current price, price change, trading volume, trading value, open interest, daily increase in open interest, settlement price, basis, and annualized basis yield [4] (二) Treasury Bond Futures Spot Market Performance - The report presents the performance data of treasury bond futures contracts (TS, TF, T, TL) and corresponding spot bonds, including code, name, price change percentage, current price, trading volume, trading value, open interest, daily increase in open interest, settlement price, net basis, CTD bond implied interest rate, and spot bond yield [6] (三) Economic Data - High - frequency data indicates that the real estate market sentiment has recently contracted, and the other four items are similar to the same period [10]

Report Overview - The report is a financial futures morning newsletter released by China Merchants Futures Co., Ltd. on July 9, 2025, covering the market performance of stock index futures and treasury bond futures on July 8, 2025, along with trading strategies [1][2][3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the discount of stock index futures has returned to extreme levels; in the long - and medium - term, it is recommended to go long on the economy by buying long - term contracts of IF, IC, and IM at low prices. For near - term contracts, due to the potential decline of micro - cap stocks, caution is advised for IC and IM indices. For treasury bond futures, it is recommended to take short - term long positions and long - term short positions, buying T and TL contracts at low prices in the short - term and hedging at high prices in the long - term [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - **Market Performance**: On July 8, A - share major indices all rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.7% to 3497.48 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.47% to 10588.39 points, the ChiNext Index up 2.39% to 2181.08 points, and the STAR 50 Index up 1.4% to 991.95 points. Market turnover was 1474.6 billion yuan, an increase of 247.5 billion yuan from the previous day. Among industry sectors, communication (+2.89%), power equipment (+2.3%), and electronics (+2.27%) led the gains; public utilities (-0.37%), banks (-0.24%), and household appliances (+0.21%) led the losses. In terms of market strength, IC > IM > IF > IH, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 4282/155/979 respectively. Net inflows of institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were 10.5 billion, - 3.9 billion, - 11.3 billion, and 4.8 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +14.7 billion, +5.9 billion, - 9.6 billion, and - 11.1 billion yuan respectively [2] - **Futures Basis and Yield**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 98.1, 71.34, 34.05, and 19.59 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of - 13.2%, - 10.29%, - 7.34%, and - 6.15% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 20%, 14%, 17%, and 20% respectively [2] - **Contract - Specific Data**: Detailed data on various stock index futures contracts such as IC2507, IC2508, etc., including price, trading volume, open interest, basis, and annualized basis yield, are provided [6] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - **Yield Changes**: On July 8, the yields of treasury bond futures declined. Among active contracts, the implied interest rates of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 1.332%, 1.503%, 1.578%, and 1.914% respectively, with increases of 1.99bps, 5.57bps, 1.96bps, and 1.51bps from the previous day [3] - **CTD Bond Data**: For the current active 2509 contract, data on the cheapest - to - deliver (CTD) bonds of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, including yield changes, net basis, and implied repo rate (IRR), are provided [3][4] - **Funding Situation**: The central bank injected 6.9 billion yuan and withdrew 13.1 billion yuan through open - market operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 6.2 billion yuan [4] - **Contract - Specific Data**: Detailed data on various treasury bond futures contracts such as TS2509, TS2512, etc., including price, trading volume, open interest, net basis, and CTD bond implied interest rate, are provided [7] 3.3 Economic Data - **High - Frequency Data**: High - frequency data shows that the real - estate market has recently contracted, while the other four areas are similar to the same period [10] - **Short - Term Interest Rate Changes**: Data on short - term capital interest rates such as SHIBOR overnight, DR001, SHIBOR one - week, and DR007, including current prices, previous - day prices, prices one week ago, and prices one month ago, are provided [10]

Core Viewpoint - United Parcel Service (UPS) has significantly underperformed compared to the S&P 500 index, with a nearly 30% decline over the past year, while the S&P 500 increased by 12% [2] Financial Performance - UPS's revenues have slightly decreased over recent years, with a 1.3% increase from $90 billion to $91 billion in the last 12 months, contrasting with a 5.5% growth for the S&P 500 [7] - The company's operating income over the last four quarters was $8.5 billion, resulting in an operating margin of 9.4%, which is lower than the S&P 500's 13.2% [12] - UPS's net income for the last four quarters was $5.9 billion, indicating a net income margin of 6.4%, compared to 11.6% for the S&P 500 [12] Valuation Metrics - UPS has a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 0.9, a price-to-free cash flow (P/FCF) ratio of 9.0, and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.1, all significantly lower than the S&P 500's ratios of 3.0, 20.5, and 26.4 respectively [7] - The current valuation of UPS stock is approximately $98, with an estimated potential upside to $124 per share, indicating over 25% upside potential [10] Market Position and Strategy - UPS's strategic decision to minimize lower-margin Amazon deliveries aims to enhance profitability, although new tariffs may increase costs and potentially decrease shipping volumes, particularly in international trade [2] - Despite operational challenges, UPS stock is viewed as an appealing buying opportunity due to its low valuation, which reflects the already apparent difficulties [3] Resilience and Stability - UPS's balance sheet appears solid, with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 31.1% compared to 19.9% for the S&P 500 [12] - The stock has shown slightly better resilience during downturns compared to the S&P 500, indicating a degree of stability in challenging market conditions [9]

Core Insights - Salesforce reported Q1 fiscal 2026 results with sales of $9.83 billion and earnings per share of $2.58, surpassing consensus estimates of $9.75 billion and $2.53 respectively [1] - The company announced the acquisition of Informatica for $8 billion, marking its largest acquisition since Slack in 2021 [1] - Salesforce raised its full-year forecast for adjusted earnings per share to $11.27-$11.33 and revenue to $41.0 billion-$41.3 billion, exceeding market expectations [1] Financial Performance - Salesforce's revenues grew by 8% to $9.8 billion in the latest quarter compared to $9.1 billion a year earlier, while the S&P 500 saw a 4.8% improvement [9] - The company has achieved an average revenue growth rate of 12.7% over the last three years, compared to 5.5% for the S&P 500 [9] - Salesforce's operating income over the previous four quarters was $7.9 billion, with an operating margin of 20.4%, higher than the S&P 500's 13.2% [12] Valuation Metrics - Salesforce has a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 7.1, compared to 3.0 for the S&P 500, and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 27 against the benchmark's 26.4 [9] - The price-to-free cash flow (P/FCF) ratio stands at 20.6, slightly above the S&P 500's 20.5 [9] - At a stock price of $280, Salesforce is trading at 7 times its trailing revenues [12] Financial Stability - Salesforce's balance sheet is considered robust, with a debt of $11 billion and a market capitalization of $265 billion, resulting in a low debt-to-equity ratio of 4.3% compared to 19.9% for the S&P 500 [12] - Cash and cash equivalents amount to $11 billion, constituting 11% of total assets of $99 billion, which is moderate compared to the S&P 500's 13.8% [12] Downturn Resilience - Salesforce stock has shown more severe impacts during downturns compared to the S&P 500, with a decline of 58.6% from its peak in November 2021 to December 2022 [13] - The stock fully rebounded to its pre-crisis high by March 2024, indicating some resilience [13] - Overall, Salesforce's performance across key metrics is rated as very strong, with financial stability categorized as extremely strong [13]