证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 关注交易逻辑转变的时点 2025年12月5日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：纪晓云 联系方式：010-56711796 期货从业资格证号：F3066027 期货交易咨询号：Z0011402 钢矿观点 钢材：当前宏观政策真空期，产业逻辑主导市场。钢材市场供需双弱，因需求端未出现明显改善，冬储尚 未启动，谨慎看待螺卷上方空间，螺纹主力2605合约压力位3200，3050一线仍为强支撑。后期关注市场交 易逻辑，可能向宏观预期转变。 铁矿石：本周铁水日产232.3万吨，环比上周减少2.38万吨，同比去年减少0.31万吨。预计铁水产量降至 230万吨以下。本期国内铁矿到港下降，但发运积极。综合判断，预计铁矿继续维持震荡走势。主力2601 合约压力位833，支撑位750。后期关注主力合约移仓换月。 【交易策略】 1、交易逻辑未发生改变前，建议短线操作。 2、市场逻辑转变：12月将由产业驱动转向宏观预期，注意时间拐点。 重要资讯 3、2025年10月全国不锈钢粗钢产量362.44万吨，与2025年9月环比增加7.87万吨，增长2.22%。10月，中国不锈钢进口量 ...

Core Viewpoint - The trading logic for coking coal and coke has shifted from being primarily driven by market sentiment and expectations to focusing more on supply and demand fundamentals due to recent price fluctuations and regulatory measures [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Price Movements - Previously, the market experienced heightened emotions and significant price increases due to the "anti-involution" backdrop and the impact of coal production checks on market sentiment [1] - The coking coal market faced a temporary supply-demand imbalance, leading to a phase of high demand driven by downstream inventory replenishment [1] - Following the implementation of risk control measures by exchanges, there was a substantial price drop in coking coal and coke [1] Group 2: Future Outlook and Trading Strategy - The current trading logic is expected to transition towards a focus on supply-demand fundamentals, with particular attention on the progress of coal mine production checks and regulatory enforcement [1] - Short-term price adjustments for coking coal are anticipated, as the previous rapid price increases may allow for further downward movement [1] - The market is expected to see intense competition at current price levels, suggesting a strategy of cautious observation and waiting for new driving factors to emerge [1]