国芯网[原:中国半导体论坛] 振兴国产半导体产业！ 中国计算产业正式打响反内卷第一枪。 12 月 18 日，首届光合组织人工智能创新大会（ HAIC2025 ）上，中科曙光宣布 2026 年 将陆续退出终端市场，未来将聚焦核心技术，服务生态伙伴。此举旨在重塑产业格局，并直 指长期困扰产业的低效内卷式竞争。 重磅官宣 曙光董事长历军在 HAIC2025 致辞时宣布，继退出服务器市场后， 2026 年将继续退出个人 计算机和工控机的等终端市场竞争，专注核心技术的研发和产品创新，提高生态体系整体竞 争力，赋能光合组织的所有成员。 这是一个颇为大胆且成本高昂的决定，意味着曙光将让渡出多个稳固的业务市场，并放掉可 观的业绩营收。 但在历军看来，一个严重内卷且无序的市场，最终结果只能是所有企业都不堪重负。更严重 的后果是，中国的产业链无法在这种竞争中进步，反而会与世界先进水平越来越远。与其在 抵消竞争中内耗掉中国计算产业的未来，不如"少点竞争对手，多点交心的朋友"。 推动光合组织成员在细分赛道里面精耕细作，为用户提供更多的价值而不是脱离企业价值和 客户价值的过度内卷，让整个中国计算产业在世界获得应有的地位，是曙光打响产业 ...

Core Insights - The PP downstream operating rate has increased by 0.50 percentage points to 48.9%, which is still low compared to historical levels [1] - The operating rate for plastic weaving remains stable at 41.1%, with a slight decrease in orders, slightly higher than the same period in the previous two years [1] - The overall PP industry is experiencing a lack of significant policy changes, leading to minimal fluctuations in the current market [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The operating rate of PP enterprises is maintained at around 84.5%, indicating a neutral market condition [1] - Recent maintenance activities have been minimal, and the production ratio for standard filament remains steady at approximately 30% [1] - Inventory levels are high compared to recent years, with general destocking in the petrochemical sector [1] Cost Factors - Unexpected U.S. non-farm employment data and OPEC+ production increases of 548,000 barrels per day in September are influencing cost dynamics [1] - The potential for a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and adjustments by EIA and IEA regarding global oil surplus have contributed to a decline in crude oil prices [1] Market Outlook - The upcoming rainy and hot season is expected to slow down downstream recovery, with plastic weaving operating rates remaining stable and new orders being limited [1] - The current market is characterized by high inventory pressure and a focus on just-in-time purchasing [1] - The PP industry is anticipated to experience a period of fluctuation, with a recommendation for a 09 - 01 reverse spread strategy [1]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of learning from international experiences in addressing industrial disorder and overcapacity, suggesting that policies encouraging mergers and acquisitions, raising industry standards, and implementing market-based clearance alongside safety net policies could be effective [8][42]. Group 2 - Japan's experience highlights the formation of cross-shareholding and mergers to create an industrial network, which helps mitigate excessive competition and enhance economies of scale. The revision of the Antimonopoly Act in 1953 and the introduction of the "New Industrial Structure Theory" in 1963 were pivotal in promoting corporate mergers [2][49]. - The shareholding of financial institutions in Japanese companies increased from 30% in 1960 to 45% in 1990, and the average cross-shareholding ratio among Japan's six major groups rose from 12% in 1962 to 18% in 1998 [2][49]. - The establishment of "Keiretsu" groups, which consist of horizontal and vertical alliances, has stabilized supply chains and reduced price wars, thereby promoting industrial upgrades [3][50]. Group 3 - The UK and US experiences demonstrate the significance of market-based clearance while ensuring social safety nets. The UK government ceased financial subsidies and gradually exited the coal price protection system in the mid-1980s, leading to the closure of about one-third of coal mines [4][51]. - In the US, the steel industry faced similar challenges, with the government eliminating tax incentives and facilitating mergers in the 1980s, resulting in a reduction of crude steel capacity by approximately 52.8 million tons from 1998 to 2003 [4][25]. - Both countries implemented various employment support measures, such as the UK's "Enterprise Allowance Scheme" and the US's Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC), which provided safety nets for displaced workers [5][32]. Group 4 - Germany's approach emphasizes setting high industry standards to foster differentiated competition. The Beer Purity Law established in 1516 set strict quality standards for beer production, which helped protect local industries and enhance product quality [6][37]. - The German government encourages regional styles and has established detailed certification mechanisms to ensure product authenticity and quality, promoting a diverse and competitive market [6][39]. - By aligning with international beer classification standards, Germany has guided the market towards high-quality, non-price competition, facilitating innovation and cultural positioning among breweries [6][54].