摘要 关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、贾东旭、侯倩楠 联系人 | 侯倩楠 应对产业无序竞争、产能过剩，日本、英美、德国等海外经验或可参考。其经验显示，鼓励行业兼并重组，提 高行业标准，加强市场化出清以及匹配相应托底政策，或是可行的政策组合。 一、日本经验：形成交叉持股、兼并收购的产业"网络" 应对过度竞争发展困局，日本的产业政策聚焦鼓励企业合并联合，发展规模经济。 20 世纪 50-80 年代，日本企 业因规模过小陷入过度竞争，导致劳动生产率低、财务恶化、资源浪费，阻碍国际竞争力企业培育。政府遂推 动合并联合，1953年修订《反垄断法》放松管制，1963年通产省提"新产业体制论"，鼓励通过合并发挥规模优 势。 随着《反垄断法》等政策放松，日本金融机构持股以及企业交叉持股占比均明显提升，催生大量企业集团。 1960-1990年日本企业中金融机构持股占比从30%提升至45%。而出于防止外国资本恶意收购，日本《商法》允 许两家企业直接向对方增发新股，无需现有股东正式批准。由此日本六大集团平均交叉持股比例明显提升，由 1962年的12%升至1998年的18%。 基于持股网络，日本大批企业形成"经连会"企 ...

2025年07月21日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡上行 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：突破上行 | 3 | | 铜：情绪良好，支撑价格 | 6 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 8 | | 铅：供需矛盾逐步显现，价格走强 | 10 | | 锡：价格走弱 | 11 | | 铝：震荡偏强 | 13 | | 氧化铝：资金增仓 | 13 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 13 | | 镍：宏观情绪提振预期，现实限制弹性空间 | 15 | | 不锈钢：现实与宏观博弈，钢价震荡运行 | 15 | | 碳酸锂：关注锂矿行业政策，偏强运行 | 17 | | 工业硅：供需去库，盘面较抗跌 | 19 | | 多晶硅：情绪发酵，盘面具上行驱动 | 19 | | 铁矿石：宏观预期支撑，偏强震荡 | 21 | | 螺纹钢：市场情绪不减，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 热轧卷板：市场情绪不减，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 硅铁：市场交投氛围浓厚，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 锰硅：市场交投氛围浓厚，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦炭：一轮提涨落地，震荡偏强 | 26 | | 焦煤：震荡偏强 | 26 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite the continuous decline in pig prices, many listed pig farming companies are expected to report profits in the first half of 2025, primarily due to effective cost control measures [1][2][4]. Group 1: Company Performance - 14 pig farming companies have disclosed their performance forecasts for the first half of 2025, with 8 companies expected to turn losses into profits, including New Hope, Juxing Agriculture, and others [2][3]. - Muyuan Foods anticipates a net profit of 10.2 billion to 10.7 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 1129.97% to 1190.26%, driven by a 32.5% increase in pig sales [2][3]. - New Hope expects a net profit of 680 million to 780 million yuan, indicating a turnaround from losses, with improved production metrics and reduced costs [2][3]. - Shennong Group forecasts a net profit of 341 million to 420 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 175.12% to 238.85%, attributed to a 40.93% increase in pig sales and lower raw material costs [3]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The pig farming industry is undergoing a "reverse involution" aimed at regulating sow capacity and boosting pig prices, with a focus on reducing the number of breeding sows by approximately 1 million [4][5]. - The top three companies, Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope, account for over 78% of total pig sales, indicating a trend towards increased industry concentration [4]. - The average selling prices of pigs have declined significantly, with Muyuan Foods reporting an average price of 14.08 yuan/kg in June, down 21% year-on-year [4][6]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Experts express cautious optimism for the pig market in the second half of the year, predicting a seasonal price increase but not a significant rise due to ample supply [6]. - The reduction in breeding sow capacity and overall weight of pigs is expected to positively impact pig prices in the medium to long term [6]. - The focus of competition in the pig farming industry is shifting from mere scale expansion to cost control and quality improvement, emphasizing the importance of detailed management practices [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is taking measures to regulate the competitive order in the electric vehicle (EV) industry to promote high-quality development and address irrational competition [1][3]. Group 1: Government Actions - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, emphasized the need for comprehensive measures to regulate competition in the EV sector [1]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has initiated inspections to ensure production consistency and compliance with national standards, targeting companies that fail to meet these requirements [3]. - A new online platform has been launched to monitor major car manufacturers' adherence to their payment commitments, addressing long-standing issues related to payment terms [3]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - The EV industry is experiencing intensified competition, leading to supply-demand imbalances and a phenomenon referred to as "involution" [3]. - The automotive sector's revenue grew by 7% from January to May, but profits fell by 11.9%, indicating a significant decline in profitability [4]. - The inventory warning index for automotive dealers was reported at 56.6%, showing a year-on-year decrease but a month-on-month increase, suggesting a decline in market conditions [4]. Group 3: Industry Responses - Executives from various automotive companies, including Lantu and Seres Group, have publicly supported the need for a fair and orderly market environment, emphasizing the importance of brand building, technological innovation, and product quality [4]. - Geely's senior vice president described "involution" as a form of destructive competition and called for mutual respect and supervision among industry peers [5]. - Following the government's regulatory actions, there has been a positive response in the stock market, with several automotive stocks experiencing gains [5].

Group 1: Domestic Circulation and Consumption - Strengthening domestic circulation is a strategic move to ensure stable economic growth, focusing on key areas such as boosting consumption and removing unreasonable restrictions on consumer spending [2][4] - The government aims to implement special actions to stimulate consumption, optimize policies for replacing old consumer goods, and diversify supply to meet increasing consumer demand [4][5] - In 2023, there has been a significant increase in sales of consumer goods due to large-scale equipment updates and policies promoting the replacement of old consumer goods, although there are concerns about the effectiveness of these policies [5] Group 2: New Energy Vehicle Industry - The meeting emphasized the need to regulate the competitive order in the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry, addressing irrational competition and promoting high-quality development [3][8] - Measures will include strengthening cost investigations, price monitoring, and ensuring compliance with payment commitments by key automotive enterprises [8][9] - The industry is facing challenges such as extended payment terms for suppliers, which could hinder technological innovation and sustainable development [9] Group 3: Service Consumption - Service consumption is identified as a key area for boosting overall consumption and expanding domestic demand, with a focus on upgrading sectors like education, healthcare, and entertainment [6][5] - The People's Bank of China has allocated 500 billion yuan for service consumption and elderly care loans to support high-quality supply in these sectors [5] - Experts suggest that removing restrictions such as car purchase limits could significantly enhance consumer spending potential [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - The industrial silicon market was positively affected by news disturbances. Factors such as the possible cancellation of preferential electricity prices and rumors of delayed resumption of production by large factories led to a significant rebound in the industrial silicon futures market. Short - term policy and capital sentiment have a large impact, and it is recommended to wait and see, with previous short positions needing protection [1][3]. - There have been many policy disturbances in the photovoltaic industry recently, including anti - involution, storage mergers and acquisitions, and self - disciplined production cuts. Policy implementation and the downward transmission of spot prices need to be continuously monitored. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to build long positions in polysilicon at low prices [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On July 14, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price rose significantly. The main contract 2509 opened at 8460 yuan/ton and closed at 8695 yuan/ton, a change of 275 yuan/ton (3.27%) from the previous day's settlement. The position of the main contract 2509 was 402,890 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on July 13 was 50,090 lots, a change of - 139 lots from the previous day [2]. - The spot price of industrial silicon increased. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8900 - 9100 yuan/ton (up 150 yuan/ton); 421 silicon was 9200 - 9400 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton); Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8400 - 8500 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton); 99 silicon was 8300 - 8400 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton) [2]. - The price of organic silicon DMC was 10,600 - 11,000 yuan/ton (unchanged). Due to the continuous rise of the industrial silicon market, the cost of DMC was pushed up, and its price jumped by about 350 yuan/ton, which in turn drove up the price of 107 glue [2]. - **Strategy** - The short - term policy and capital sentiment have a large impact. It is recommended to wait and see, and previous short positions need to be protected [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On July 14, 2025, the main contract 2508 of polysilicon futures fluctuated widely, opening at 41,290 yuan/ton and closing at 41,765 yuan/ton, a change of 0.81% from the previous day's closing price. The position of the main contract was 78,328 lots (previous day: 85,925 lots), and the trading volume on the day was 470,329 lots [5]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of polysilicon re - feedstock was 32.00 - 33.00 yuan/kg; dense polysilicon was 30.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg; cauliflower - shaped polysilicon was 28.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg; granular silicon was 30.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg; N - type material was 42.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg (down 0.50 yuan/kg); N - type granular silicon was 41.00 - 46.00 yuan/kg [5]. - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased slightly, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 276,000 tons, a change of 1.40% from the previous period; the silicon wafer inventory was 18.13GW, a change of - 5.70% from the previous period. The weekly polysilicon output was 22,800 tons, a change of - 5.00% from the previous period; the silicon wafer output was 11.50GW, a change of - 3.37% from the previous period [5][6]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained mostly stable, with only minor changes in a few varieties [6]. - After domestic photovoltaic silicon wafer enterprises generally raised their quotes on the afternoon of July 9, the domestic silicon wafer market has fully carried out transactions at the new prices. Battery factories have started to purchase in large quantities. Currently, silicon material transactions have not fully started, with only a few P - type orders [7]. - **Strategy** - Short - term: pay attention to risks and be cautiously bullish. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to build long positions at low prices [8].

Group 1 - The photovoltaic equipment and silicon energy sectors are experiencing a strong rally, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit up [1] - Several silicon wafer manufacturers have raised their prices, with increases ranging from 8% to 11.7% for different sizes of silicon wafers [2] - The main contract for polysilicon futures has surged over 4%, surpassing 40,000 yuan per ton, indicating a bullish trend in the market [1][2] Group 2 - Recent government meetings emphasize the need to address low-price competition in the photovoltaic industry and promote high-quality development [3] - Analysts believe that the policies aimed at improving the photovoltaic sector will lead to a rebound, as the industry is expected to recover from its low-profit situation [3] - The tightening supply expectations for industrial silicon and polysilicon prices are seen as positive for the overall market, potentially benefiting related sectors [3]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-03 政策及情绪扰动较大，多晶硅盘面触及涨停 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-07-02，工业硅期货价格大幅上涨，主力合约2509开于7805元/吨，最后收于8210元/吨，较前一日结算变化（375） 元/吨，变化（4.79）%。截止收盘，2509主力合约持仓386361手，2025-07-02仓单总数为51916手，较前一日变化 -221手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格小幅上涨。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在8600-8700（150）元/吨；421#硅在8800-9100 （150）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8000-8100（50）元/吨，99硅价格在8000-8100（50）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、天津、 西北、新疆、四川、上海地区部分硅价也上涨。97硅价格暂稳元/吨。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价10300-10600（0）元/吨。据SMM报道，当前国内单体企业开工仍在继续 小幅提高，截至当前，国内开工达到70％左右，预计7月国内DMC排产仍将小幅提高1万吨左右，对工业硅消耗量 增多。 策略 当天工业硅期货盘面大幅上涨，短期由于大厂减产，下游排产小 ...

撰 文 / 牛跟尚 设 计 / s h e l l y 6月5日，世界环境日、中国芒种，这天开始，从全球到中国，都出现空前的舆论躁动。 首先，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）与美国企业家、前"政府效率部"负责人、特斯拉 CEO埃隆·里夫·马斯克（Elon Reeve Musk）矛盾公开化。"世界上最有权的人"和"世界上最有钱的 人"从 亲 密无间到骂战不休，彻底撕破脸。 其次，当地时间6月5日晚，印度尼西亚雅加达，中国国家男子足球队客场0:1不敌印度尼西亚队， 中国男足提前一轮确定无缘2026年美加墨世界杯，也宣告国足自2002年韩日世界杯后连续6届冲击 世界杯的梦想破碎。 而在国内江苏，13个地级市的足球超级联赛（"苏超"）凭借独特的运营模式，营造出热烈的主场氛 围，实现赛事与文旅、消费的深度融合，展现出强大的凝聚力与活力。 这背后蕴含的"苏超""天时地利人不和"——看似"敌对"实在富有默契且不越界的竞技精神，是比赛 第一、团结协作的体育精神。 反观汽车产业，6月6日开幕的2025中国汽车重庆论坛上，众多行业大佬的激烈交锋，凸显出中国车 圈另一种"天时地利人不和"。 在这个关键时刻，中国车 ...