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中国三分之二的省,正在面临集体失血
36氪· 2025-07-15 00:11
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant reshaping of China's population distribution, highlighting a decline in population in many provinces and a concentration of growth in economically vibrant regions like Guangdong and Zhejiang [5][9][10]. Population Trends - In 2021, China's total population peaked at 1.4126 billion, but in 2022, the number of deaths exceeded births for the first time, marking a shift from natural population growth to decline [5]. - By 2024, 20 out of 31 provincial-level regions experienced a decrease in permanent resident population, with only 8 regions showing growth [9][10]. - Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Fujian are leading in population growth, while provinces like Shandong, Henan, and Hunan are seeing significant declines [10][14][16]. Regional Population Changes - Shandong's population decreased by 430,000 in 2024, marking the largest decline in the country, continuing a trend of population loss for three consecutive years [14]. - The article notes that from 2001 to 2021, Shandong's population grew by 11.72 million, making it one of the largest provinces by population [15]. - The trend of population decline has accelerated since 2020, affecting more regions, including traditionally populous provinces like Henan and Hunan [19][20]. Urban vs. Rural Dynamics - The article emphasizes that while people are still moving, they are less likely to migrate long distances, with a significant portion of the population now moving within their provinces [21]. - In economically active provinces, population growth is distributed across multiple cities, while in shrinking regions, provincial capitals are becoming the primary destinations for migrants [24][39]. Economic Factors Influencing Migration - Zhejiang is highlighted as a model where all 11 prefecture-level cities saw population growth from 2020 to 2024, driven by a robust economy [25]. - In contrast, Hunan's population growth is concentrated in Changsha, with other cities experiencing significant declines [27][31]. - The article discusses how provinces like Anhui and Guizhou are reversing population trends through industrial development, particularly in the automotive and data center sectors [41][46]. Challenges in Retaining Talent - Despite attracting talent through economic opportunities, many provinces face challenges in retaining workers due to limited job options and growth potential [50]. - The software industry in Guizhou, while growing, has seen a decline in employment numbers after reaching a peak, indicating difficulties in sustaining workforce growth [49].