上周45港进口铁矿库存15513万吨，环比增81万吨，创2022年3月25日以来新高。上周螺纹模拟测算平均 吨毛利为206元/吨，较上一周升54元/吨，热卷模拟平均吨毛利8元/吨，较上一周升36元/吨;上周247家钢 企盈利率为35.93%，较上一周持平。随着我国生铁产量下降，对铁矿的需求可能有所放缓。2025年11 月，中国粗钢产量6987万吨，同比下降10.9%;生铁产量6234万吨，同比下降8.7%;钢材产量11591万吨， 同比下降2.6%。2025年1-11月，中国粗钢产量89167万吨，同比下降4.0%;生铁产量77405万吨，同比下 降2.3%;钢材产量133277万吨，同比增长4.0%。 国泰海通发布研报称，维持钢铁行业"增持"评级，维持供给端收缩的预期，钢铁基本面有望逐步修复。 长期来看，产业集中度提升、促进高质量发展是未来钢铁行业发展的必然趋势，具有产品结构与成本优 势的钢企将充分受益;在环保加严、超低排放改造与碳中和背景下，龙头公司竞争优势与盈利能力将更 加凸显。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 需求环比下降，库存环比下降 上周(本报告中的上周均指2025年12月15日至12月19日当周)五大品 ...

国泰海通发布研报称，钢铁需求有望逐步触底;供给端即便不考虑供给政策，目前行业亏损时间已经较 长，供给的市场化出清已开始出现，该行预期钢铁行业基本面有望逐步修复。而若供给政策落地，行业 供给的收缩速度更快，行业上行的进展将更快展开。维持钢铁行业"增持"评级。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 需求环比下降，库存环比下降 上周(本报告中的上周均指2025年12月8日至12月12日当周)五大品种表观消费量为839.7万吨，环比降 2.83%，同比降4.76%;其中建材表观消费量282.6万吨，环比降17.2万吨;板材表观消费量557万吨，环比 降7.3万吨。五大品种钢材产量806.2万吨，环比降22.7万吨;总库存1332万吨，环比降33.5万吨，维持低 位水平。根据Mysteel数据，上周全国247家钢厂高炉开工率78.63%，较上一周降1.53个百分点;全国247 家钢厂高炉产能利用率为85.92%，较上一周降1.16个百分点;上周全国电炉开工率60.26%，较上一周升 0.64个百分点;上周电炉产能利用率为52.9%，较上一周降0.33个百分点。库存仍继续下降。 上周45港进口铁矿库存15431.4万吨，环比增130. ...

Group 1 - The China Iron and Steel Association emphasizes the need for domestic mining companies to accelerate key iron ore project advancements and achieve high-quality project goals [1] - The association will dynamically update the list of key iron ore projects and conduct research to understand the real situation of these projects, while also enhancing resource security capabilities in the steel industry [1] - Guotai Junan Securities forecasts that steel demand is expected to stabilize, with supply remaining constrained, as the negative impact of real estate on steel demand diminishes and demand from infrastructure and manufacturing is anticipated to grow steadily [1] Group 2 - Cinda Securities acknowledges that despite the current supply-demand contradictions and declining industry profits, steel demand is expected to remain stable or slightly increase due to supportive policies and steady growth in real estate, infrastructure investment, and manufacturing [2] - The overall supply-demand situation in the steel industry is expected to remain stable, with tightening supply and increasing industry concentration [2] - The future steel industry landscape is projected to improve, with structural investment opportunities available, particularly for high-margin special steel companies and leading steel enterprises with strong cost control and scale effects [2]

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通证券发布研报称，维持钢铁行业"增持"评级。长期来看，产业集中度提 升、促进高质量发展是未来钢铁行业发展的必然趋势，具有产品结构与成本优势的钢企将充分受益;在 环保加严、超低排放改造与碳中和背景下，龙头公司竞争优势与盈利能力将更加凸显。 国泰海通证券主要观点如下： 需求环比下降，库存环比下降 上周(本报告中的上周均指2025年11月24日至11月28日当周)五大品种表观消费量为888万吨，环比降 0.69%，同比升1.2%;其中建材表观消费量318万吨，环比降1万吨;板材表观消费量570万吨，环比降5万 吨。五大品种钢材产量855.7万吨，环比增5.8万吨;总库存1401万吨，环比降32万吨，维持低位水平。根 据Mysteel数据，上周全国247家钢厂高炉开工率81.09%，较上一周降1.1个百分点;全国247家钢厂高炉产 能利用率为87.98%，较上一周降0.6个百分点;上周全国电炉开工率60.9%，较上一周降0.64个百分点;上 周电炉产能利用率为52.92%，较上一周升0.51个百分点。库存仍继续下降。 盈利率环比下降 上周45港进口铁矿库存15206万吨，环比增155万吨。上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is experiencing a decline in demand and inventory, with expectations of a gradual recovery in profitability as supply-side constraints persist [1][3]. Group 1: Demand and Supply Analysis - The apparent consumption of five major steel products was 8.606 million tons, a decrease of 63,300 tons week-on-week; construction materials consumption was 3.0335 million tons, down 40,200 tons; and sheet materials consumption was 5.5725 million tons, down 23,100 tons [1]. - The production of five major steel products was 8.3438 million tons, a decrease of 223,600 tons week-on-week, while total inventory stood at 14.7735 million tons, down 262,200 tons [1]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces at 247 steel mills was 82.81%, a decrease of 0.32 percentage points week-on-week, while electric furnace operating rate was 60.9%, an increase of 1.28 percentage points [1]. Group 2: Profitability Trends - The average gross profit per ton for rebar was 81.4 CNY, an increase of 4.3 CNY week-on-week, while hot-rolled coil showed a negative gross profit of -16.6 CNY, also up by 4.3 CNY [2]. - The profitability rate for 247 steel companies was 38.96%, a decrease of 0.87 percentage points week-on-week [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The real estate sector's ongoing decline is expected to reduce its negative impact on steel demand, while demand from infrastructure and manufacturing is anticipated to stabilize [3]. - The steel industry has been in a loss phase since Q3 2022, with nearly 60% of steel companies still reporting losses, indicating a market-driven supply clearance is beginning to occur [3]. - The recently released "Steel Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" emphasizes continued production reduction policies to promote dynamic supply-demand balance [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Long-term trends indicate that increased industry concentration and high-quality development will benefit steel companies with product structure and cost advantages [4]. - Key recommendations include Baosteel (600019.SH), Hualing Steel (000932.SZ), and Shougang (000959.SZ) for their leading technology and product structures, as well as CITIC Special Steel (000708.SZ) and Yongjin Co. (603995.SH) for their competitive advantages [4].

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is rated "overweight" by Guotai Junan, with a long-term trend towards increased industry concentration and high-quality development, benefiting companies with product structure and cost advantages [1] Group 1: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Steel consumption for the week of October 20-24, 2025, reached 8.9273 million tons, an increase of 173,200 tons from the previous week, with construction steel consumption at 3.1526 million tons and plate steel consumption at 5.7747 million tons [2] - Total steel production for the same week was 8.6532 million tons, up 83,700 tons, while total inventory decreased by 274,100 tons to 15.5485 million tons, maintaining a low level [2] - The operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 steel mills was 84.71%, an increase of 0.44 percentage points, while electric furnace operating rates remained stable at 60.9% [2] Group 2: Profitability Trends - The average gross profit for rebar was 126.1 CNY/ton, up 14.5 CNY/ton, while hot-rolled coil gross profit decreased by 5.5 CNY/ton to 16.1 CNY/ton [3] - The profitability rate for 247 steel companies was 47.62%, a decrease of 7.79% [3] - Expectations indicate that iron ore production will accelerate, leading to a gradual easing of iron ore prices, which may improve cost constraints in the steel industry [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Demand is expected to stabilize, with a reduction in the negative impact of the real estate sector on steel demand, while construction and manufacturing sectors are anticipated to see steady growth [4] - The steel export volume from January to September maintained a year-on-year increase [4] - The government has implemented policies to reduce production, supporting advanced enterprises and phasing out inefficient capacities, which is expected to lead to a gradual recovery in the steel market [4]

Group 1 - The steel sector experienced a significant rise on October 17, with companies like Guangdong Mingzhu and Lingang Co. reaching the daily limit, while others like Jinggong Steel Structure and Hainan Mining saw increases of over 4% [1] - The China Iron and Steel Association held a meeting on October 15 to discuss the "14th Five-Year" development plan, indicating a general downward trend in domestic steel demand during this period, emphasizing the need for production adjustment in response to carbon emission regulations [1] - The association highlighted opportunities for market expansion, particularly in green steel structure buildings, which are seen as having unmatched advantages under high-quality development requirements [1] Group 2 - Guotai Junan Securities noted that over 40% of steel companies are currently operating at a loss, indicating a market clearing process is beginning [2] - The recently released "Steel Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" emphasizes continued production reduction policies to support advanced enterprises and phase out inefficient capacities, aiming for a balance between supply and demand [2] - Long-term trends in the steel industry point towards increased concentration and a focus on high-quality development, with companies that have product structure and cost advantages expected to benefit significantly [2]

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has initiated an investigation into Ru Yi Group (002193) for suspected violations of information disclosure, but the company states that its operations remain normal and the investigation will not have a significant impact [1] - Ru Yi Group reported a revenue of approximately 154 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 32.25%, and a net loss of about 95.73 million yuan [1] - The global steel demand is expected to rebound moderately in 2026, with a projected increase of 1.3% to 1.772 billion tons, driven by trends in various regions including a slowdown in the decline of demand in China and strong growth in developing economies [2] Group 2 - The average stock price of steel concept stocks has increased by 29.62% this year, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, with Wu Jin Bu Niu leading with a 103.9% increase [3] - Ten steel concept stocks have received institutional research, with Linggang Co. actively expanding its international market presence and aiming for certification in various countries [3] - Shandong Steel is expected to turn a profit with a projected net profit of approximately 140 million yuan, benefiting from cost control measures and improved procurement strategies [4] Group 3 - Ten steel concept stocks are predicted to see continued growth in performance, with at least five institutions providing ratings for these stocks [4] - Guangdong Mingzhu is expected to report a net profit of approximately 215 million to 263 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 858.45% to 1071.44% [3]

Group 1: Industry Outlook - The World Steel Association forecasts a moderate rebound in global steel demand in 2026, with an expected increase of 1.3% to reach approximately 1.772 billion tons [5][6] - In 2025, global steel demand is projected to remain stable at around 1.75 billion tons, unchanged from 2024 [5] - The growth in 2026 is driven by strong trends in several regions, with a slowdown in the decline of steel demand in China and robust growth in developing economies such as India, Vietnam, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia [6] Group 2: Company Performance - Ru Yi Group announced that it received a notice from the China Securities Regulatory Commission regarding an investigation for suspected information disclosure violations, but the company stated that its operations remain normal and the investigation will not have a significant impact [1] - As of September 30, 2025, Ru Yi Group reported a total market capitalization of 1.521 billion yuan and a significant year-on-year revenue decline of 32.25%, with a net loss of approximately 95.73 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [3] - Several steel companies are expected to see continued growth in performance, with 10 steel concept stocks averaging a 29.62% increase in share price this year, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [7][8] Group 3: Financial Projections - Institutions predict that 10 steel concept stocks will experience sustained growth in 2025 and 2026, with specific companies like Guangdong Mingzhu expected to see a net profit increase of 858.45% to 1.63 billion yuan [8] - A table of projected net profits for various steel companies shows significant expected growth rates, with Huazhong Steel projected to have a 75.04% increase in net profit for 2025 [9]

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is set to benefit from a significant policy initiative aimed at stabilizing growth and promoting high-quality development, with a target of approximately 4% annual growth in value added over the next two years [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Framework - The "Steel Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" was jointly issued by five government departments, focusing on structural adjustments and high-quality development [2][3]. - The plan emphasizes a problem-oriented and goal-oriented approach, proposing 10 specific measures across five key areas [2][3]. Group 2: Key Measures - The plan includes precise control of production capacity and output, with a focus on supporting advanced enterprises and phasing out inefficient capacity [2][3]. - It promotes the development of low-carbon steelmaking processes, such as electric arc furnaces and hydrogen metallurgy, through differentiated support for capacity replacement [2][3]. - The plan mandates that by the end of 2025, over 80% of steel production capacity must complete ultra-low emission transformations [6]. Group 3: Industry Management and Innovation - Steel enterprises will be classified and managed in tiers, encouraging resource allocation towards leading companies [3]. - The plan aims to enhance the supply of high-end products by fostering collaboration among steel companies, upstream and downstream enterprises, and research institutions [3][4]. Group 4: Investment and Digital Transformation - The plan calls for the modernization of equipment and the promotion of digital transformation within the industry, including the establishment of evaluation standards for digitalization [4][7]. - It encourages the adoption of advanced technologies and the development of intelligent manufacturing processes [4][7]. Group 5: Monitoring and Support - The plan outlines organizational, policy, and operational support measures to ensure the effective implementation of the growth strategy [7]. - Continuous monitoring and capacity warning mechanisms will be established to maintain industry stability [7]. Group 6: Market Outlook - Analysts predict a gradual recovery in steel demand as seasonal changes occur, with a potential reduction in inventory levels [7]. - The industry is expected to enter a performance cycle focused on profitability, driven by increased production restrictions and a shift towards high-quality development [7].