报告导读： 需求有望逐步触底；供给端即便不考虑供给政策，目前行业微利时间已经较 长，供给的市场化出清已开始出现，我们预期钢铁行业基本面有望逐步修复。而若供给政 策落地，行业供给的收缩速度更快，行业上行的进展将更快展开。 报告来源 需求环比下降，库存环比上升。 上周（本报告中的上周均指 2026 年 2 月 23 日至 2 月 27 日当周） 上周主要钢材社会库存 1296 万吨，环比上升 114 万 吨；钢厂库存 550 万吨，环比上升 20 万吨。社会库存方面，上周螺纹钢社会库存 568 万吨，环比上升 73 万吨；线材社会库存 88 万吨，环比上升 15 万 吨；热卷社会库存 357 万吨，环比上升 17 万吨。钢厂库存方面，上周螺纹钢钢厂库存 233 万吨，环比上升 12 万吨；线材钢厂库存 85 万吨，环比上升 4 万吨；热卷钢厂库存 95 万吨，环比上升 1 万吨。 盈利率环比下降。 上周 45 港进口铁矿库存 17092 万吨，环增 146 万吨。 测算螺纹钢平均吨毛利为 192 元 / 吨，较上一周回升 6 元 / 吨，热卷模拟平 均吨毛利 54 元 / 吨，较上一周上升 18 元 / 吨。测算 ...

Group 1 - The long-term trend in the steel industry is expected to be an increase in industry concentration and promotion of high-quality development [1] - Demand for steel is anticipated to gradually bottom out, with limited downward pressure; the negative impact of the real estate sector on steel demand has significantly weakened [1] - Steel demand from infrastructure and manufacturing sectors is expected to grow steadily [1] Group 2 - Approximately 60% of steel companies are currently operating at a loss, indicating a prolonged period of micro-profitability in the industry [1] - Market-driven supply adjustments are beginning to occur, suggesting a gradual recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals [1] - If supply policies are implemented, the contraction of industry supply may accelerate, leading to quicker progress in industry recovery [1] Group 3 - Under stricter environmental regulations and the context of ultra-low emissions and carbon neutrality, leading companies are expected to demonstrate enhanced competitive advantages and profitability [1] - The steel ETF (515210) tracks the CSI Steel Index (930606), which reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the steel industry [1] - The index covers various sub-sectors, including general steel and special steel, capturing the cyclical characteristics and market dynamics of the steel industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is rated as "overweight" by Guotai Junan, with expectations of supply-side contraction and gradual recovery of the steel fundamentals [1] Group 1: Demand and Supply - Demand for steel has decreased on a month-on-month basis, with total apparent consumption of five major steel products at 8.3528 million tons, down 0.53% month-on-month and 4.06% year-on-year [2] - Total steel production was 7.9797 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 1.02%, while total inventory stood at 12.9478 million tons, down 2.8% month-on-month, maintaining a low level [2] - The operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 steel mills was 78.47%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points from the previous week, indicating a continued decline in inventory [2] Group 2: Profitability - The average gross profit for rebar was estimated at 206 CNY per ton, an increase of 54 CNY per ton from the previous week, while hot-rolled coil gross profit averaged 8 CNY per ton, up 36 CNY per ton [3] - The profitability rate of 247 steel companies remained stable at 35.93% [3] - China's crude steel production in November was 6.987 million tons, down 10.9% year-on-year, while pig iron production was 6.234 million tons, down 8.7% year-on-year [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Demand is expected to stabilize, while supply is anticipated to continue contracting, with the negative impact of the real estate sector on steel demand significantly diminishing [4] - Approximately 65% of steel companies are currently operating at a loss, indicating that market-driven supply adjustments are beginning to occur [4] - The steel fundamentals are expected to gradually improve as supply-side contraction persists [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that steel demand is expected to gradually bottom out, and the supply side is beginning to show signs of market-driven clearance, with a potential recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals [1] - The report indicates a decrease in demand and inventory levels, with apparent consumption of five major steel varieties at 8.397 million tons, down 2.83% week-on-week and 4.76% year-on-year [2] - The production of five major steel varieties was 8.062 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 22.7 thousand tons, while total inventory stood at 13.32 million tons, down 33.5% week-on-week [2] Group 2 - The average gross profit for rebar was 169.8 CNY/ton, an increase of 22.2 CNY/ton week-on-week, while hot-rolled coil showed a gross profit of -30.2 CNY/ton, a decrease of 17.8 CNY/ton [3] - Approximately 65% of steel companies are currently operating at a loss, and the market-driven clearance of supply is beginning to occur [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has released a plan to continue implementing production reduction policies, which is expected to promote a dynamic balance between supply and demand [4] Group 3 - The long-term outlook for the steel industry includes an increase in industry concentration and a focus on high-quality development, benefiting companies with product structure and cost advantages [5] - Key recommendations include companies like Baosteel (600019), Hualing Steel (000932), and Shougang (000959), which have leading technology and product structures [5] - The report also highlights the potential of upstream resource companies such as Hebei Steel Resources (000923) and Dazhong Mining (001203) in the context of demand recovery [5]

Group 1 - The China Iron and Steel Association emphasizes the need for domestic mining companies to accelerate key iron ore project advancements and achieve high-quality project goals [1] - The association will dynamically update the list of key iron ore projects and conduct research to understand the real situation of these projects, while also enhancing resource security capabilities in the steel industry [1] - Guotai Junan Securities forecasts that steel demand is expected to stabilize, with supply remaining constrained, as the negative impact of real estate on steel demand diminishes and demand from infrastructure and manufacturing is anticipated to grow steadily [1] Group 2 - Cinda Securities acknowledges that despite the current supply-demand contradictions and declining industry profits, steel demand is expected to remain stable or slightly increase due to supportive policies and steady growth in real estate, infrastructure investment, and manufacturing [2] - The overall supply-demand situation in the steel industry is expected to remain stable, with tightening supply and increasing industry concentration [2] - The future steel industry landscape is projected to improve, with structural investment opportunities available, particularly for high-margin special steel companies and leading steel enterprises with strong cost control and scale effects [2]

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is rated "overweight" by Guotai Junan Securities, with an expectation of increased industry concentration and high-quality development as key trends for future growth [1] Group 1: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The apparent consumption of five major steel products was 8.88 million tons, a decrease of 0.69% week-on-week but an increase of 1.2% year-on-year [1] - Total steel production was 8.557 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 5.8 thousand tons, while total inventory decreased to 14.01 million tons, down 320 thousand tons [1] - The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills was 81.09%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from the previous week [1] - The report anticipates that steel demand will stabilize, with a notable reduction in the negative impact from the real estate sector, while demand from infrastructure and manufacturing is expected to grow steadily [3] Group 2: Profitability and Cost Trends - The average gross profit for rebar was 91 CNY/ton, an increase of 30 CNY/ton week-on-week, while hot-rolled coil showed a gross profit of -47 CNY/ton, an increase of 18.4 CNY/ton [2] - The profitability rate for 247 steel companies was 35.06%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points from the previous week [2] - The expectation is that iron ore production will accelerate, leading to a gradual easing of cost pressures in the steel industry, which may help restore the industry's profitability [2] Group 3: Policy and Market Outlook - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has released a plan for the steel industry that emphasizes production reduction policies to support advanced enterprises and phase out inefficient capacities [3] - Approximately 65% of steel companies are currently operating at a loss, indicating a market-driven supply adjustment is beginning to take shape [3] Group 4: Recommended Companies - Companies recommended include Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Shougang, and low-cost firms like Fangda Special Steel and New Steel [4] - Other recommendations include competitive advantage firms like CITIC Special Steel and Yongjin Co., as well as high-barrier material companies such as Jiuli Special Materials and Xianglou New Materials [4] - The report also highlights upstream resource companies like Hebei Steel Resources and Erdos as having long-term growth potential [4]

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is experiencing a decline in demand and inventory, with expectations of a gradual recovery in profitability as supply-side constraints persist [1][3]. Group 1: Demand and Supply Analysis - The apparent consumption of five major steel products was 8.606 million tons, a decrease of 63,300 tons week-on-week; construction materials consumption was 3.0335 million tons, down 40,200 tons; and sheet materials consumption was 5.5725 million tons, down 23,100 tons [1]. - The production of five major steel products was 8.3438 million tons, a decrease of 223,600 tons week-on-week, while total inventory stood at 14.7735 million tons, down 262,200 tons [1]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces at 247 steel mills was 82.81%, a decrease of 0.32 percentage points week-on-week, while electric furnace operating rate was 60.9%, an increase of 1.28 percentage points [1]. Group 2: Profitability Trends - The average gross profit per ton for rebar was 81.4 CNY, an increase of 4.3 CNY week-on-week, while hot-rolled coil showed a negative gross profit of -16.6 CNY, also up by 4.3 CNY [2]. - The profitability rate for 247 steel companies was 38.96%, a decrease of 0.87 percentage points week-on-week [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The real estate sector's ongoing decline is expected to reduce its negative impact on steel demand, while demand from infrastructure and manufacturing is anticipated to stabilize [3]. - The steel industry has been in a loss phase since Q3 2022, with nearly 60% of steel companies still reporting losses, indicating a market-driven supply clearance is beginning to occur [3]. - The recently released "Steel Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" emphasizes continued production reduction policies to promote dynamic supply-demand balance [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Long-term trends indicate that increased industry concentration and high-quality development will benefit steel companies with product structure and cost advantages [4]. - Key recommendations include Baosteel (600019.SH), Hualing Steel (000932.SZ), and Shougang (000959.SZ) for their leading technology and product structures, as well as CITIC Special Steel (000708.SZ) and Yongjin Co. (603995.SH) for their competitive advantages [4].

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is rated "overweight" by Guotai Junan, with a long-term trend towards increased industry concentration and high-quality development, benefiting companies with product structure and cost advantages [1] Group 1: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Steel consumption for the week of October 20-24, 2025, reached 8.9273 million tons, an increase of 173,200 tons from the previous week, with construction steel consumption at 3.1526 million tons and plate steel consumption at 5.7747 million tons [2] - Total steel production for the same week was 8.6532 million tons, up 83,700 tons, while total inventory decreased by 274,100 tons to 15.5485 million tons, maintaining a low level [2] - The operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 steel mills was 84.71%, an increase of 0.44 percentage points, while electric furnace operating rates remained stable at 60.9% [2] Group 2: Profitability Trends - The average gross profit for rebar was 126.1 CNY/ton, up 14.5 CNY/ton, while hot-rolled coil gross profit decreased by 5.5 CNY/ton to 16.1 CNY/ton [3] - The profitability rate for 247 steel companies was 47.62%, a decrease of 7.79% [3] - Expectations indicate that iron ore production will accelerate, leading to a gradual easing of iron ore prices, which may improve cost constraints in the steel industry [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Demand is expected to stabilize, with a reduction in the negative impact of the real estate sector on steel demand, while construction and manufacturing sectors are anticipated to see steady growth [4] - The steel export volume from January to September maintained a year-on-year increase [4] - The government has implemented policies to reduce production, supporting advanced enterprises and phasing out inefficient capacities, which is expected to lead to a gradual recovery in the steel market [4]

Group 1 - The steel sector experienced a significant rise on October 17, with companies like Guangdong Mingzhu and Lingang Co. reaching the daily limit, while others like Jinggong Steel Structure and Hainan Mining saw increases of over 4% [1] - The China Iron and Steel Association held a meeting on October 15 to discuss the "14th Five-Year" development plan, indicating a general downward trend in domestic steel demand during this period, emphasizing the need for production adjustment in response to carbon emission regulations [1] - The association highlighted opportunities for market expansion, particularly in green steel structure buildings, which are seen as having unmatched advantages under high-quality development requirements [1] Group 2 - Guotai Junan Securities noted that over 40% of steel companies are currently operating at a loss, indicating a market clearing process is beginning [2] - The recently released "Steel Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" emphasizes continued production reduction policies to support advanced enterprises and phase out inefficient capacities, aiming for a balance between supply and demand [2] - Long-term trends in the steel industry point towards increased concentration and a focus on high-quality development, with companies that have product structure and cost advantages expected to benefit significantly [2]

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has initiated an investigation into Ru Yi Group (002193) for suspected violations of information disclosure, but the company states that its operations remain normal and the investigation will not have a significant impact [1] - Ru Yi Group reported a revenue of approximately 154 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 32.25%, and a net loss of about 95.73 million yuan [1] - The global steel demand is expected to rebound moderately in 2026, with a projected increase of 1.3% to 1.772 billion tons, driven by trends in various regions including a slowdown in the decline of demand in China and strong growth in developing economies [2] Group 2 - The average stock price of steel concept stocks has increased by 29.62% this year, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, with Wu Jin Bu Niu leading with a 103.9% increase [3] - Ten steel concept stocks have received institutional research, with Linggang Co. actively expanding its international market presence and aiming for certification in various countries [3] - Shandong Steel is expected to turn a profit with a projected net profit of approximately 140 million yuan, benefiting from cost control measures and improved procurement strategies [4] Group 3 - Ten steel concept stocks are predicted to see continued growth in performance, with at least five institutions providing ratings for these stocks [4] - Guangdong Mingzhu is expected to report a net profit of approximately 215 million to 263 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 858.45% to 1071.44% [3]