Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is set to benefit from a significant policy initiative aimed at stabilizing growth and promoting high-quality development, with a target of approximately 4% annual growth in value added over the next two years [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Framework - The "Steel Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" was jointly issued by five government departments, focusing on structural adjustments and high-quality development [2][3]. - The plan emphasizes a problem-oriented and goal-oriented approach, proposing 10 specific measures across five key areas [2][3]. Group 2: Key Measures - The plan includes precise control of production capacity and output, with a focus on supporting advanced enterprises and phasing out inefficient capacity [2][3]. - It promotes the development of low-carbon steelmaking processes, such as electric arc furnaces and hydrogen metallurgy, through differentiated support for capacity replacement [2][3]. - The plan mandates that by the end of 2025, over 80% of steel production capacity must complete ultra-low emission transformations [6]. Group 3: Industry Management and Innovation - Steel enterprises will be classified and managed in tiers, encouraging resource allocation towards leading companies [3]. - The plan aims to enhance the supply of high-end products by fostering collaboration among steel companies, upstream and downstream enterprises, and research institutions [3][4]. Group 4: Investment and Digital Transformation - The plan calls for the modernization of equipment and the promotion of digital transformation within the industry, including the establishment of evaluation standards for digitalization [4][7]. - It encourages the adoption of advanced technologies and the development of intelligent manufacturing processes [4][7]. Group 5: Monitoring and Support - The plan outlines organizational, policy, and operational support measures to ensure the effective implementation of the growth strategy [7]. - Continuous monitoring and capacity warning mechanisms will be established to maintain industry stability [7]. Group 6: Market Outlook - Analysts predict a gradual recovery in steel demand as seasonal changes occur, with a potential reduction in inventory levels [7]. - The industry is expected to enter a performance cycle focused on profitability, driven by increased production restrictions and a shift towards high-quality development [7].

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is expected to gradually recover as seasonal demand shifts, with inventory likely entering a reduction phase. The supply side is beginning to clear due to prolonged industry losses, indicating a potential improvement in the steel industry's fundamentals. Long-term trends suggest increased industry concentration and high-quality development, benefiting companies with product structure and cost advantages [1][3]. Demand and Supply Analysis - Steel demand has decreased, with apparent consumption of five major steel products at 8.2783 million tons, down 299,400 tons week-on-week. Inventory rose to 15.007 million tons, an increase of 328,200 tons. The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills was 80.4%, down 2.8 percentage points [1]. - The average gross profit for rebar was 179.4 CNY/ton, down 52 CNY/ton, while hot-rolled coil gross profit was 135.4 CNY/ton, down 36 CNY/ton. The profitability rate for 247 steel companies was 61.04%, a decrease of 2.6% [2]. - The real estate sector's ongoing decline is expected to reduce its negative impact on steel demand, while demand from infrastructure and manufacturing is anticipated to grow steadily. Steel exports maintained year-on-year growth from January to July [3]. Supply Expectations - The steel industry has been experiencing losses since Q3 2022, with nearly 40% of steel companies still in the red. The recent policy framework aims to reduce production while supporting advanced enterprises and phasing out inefficient capacities [3]. - The expectation for supply contraction remains, with the steel industry's fundamentals likely to improve gradually [3]. Long-term Outlook and Recommendations - The long-term trend indicates that industry concentration will increase, promoting high-quality development. Companies with superior product structures and cost advantages are expected to benefit significantly. Leading companies will have enhanced competitive advantages and profitability due to stricter environmental regulations and carbon neutrality initiatives [4]. - Recommended companies include Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Shougang, and low-cost firms like Fangda Special Steel and New Steel. Additionally, companies with competitive advantages and high dividends such as CITIC Special Steel and Yongjin Co., as well as high-barrier material companies, are highlighted [4].

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，维持钢铁行业"增持"评级。该行预期若供给政策落地，行业 供给的收缩速度更快，行业上行的进展将更快展开。长期来看，产业集中度提升、促进高质量发展是未 来钢铁行业发展的必然趋势，具有产品结构与成本优势的钢企将充分受益;在环保加严、超低排放改造 与碳中和背景下，龙头公司竞争优势与盈利能力将更加凸显。 上周45港进口铁矿库存13763万吨，环比降82.18万吨。上周螺纹模拟平均吨毛利231.5元/吨，环比降 12.2元/吨，热卷模拟平均吨毛利171.5元/吨，环比降30.2元/吨;247家钢企盈利率63.64%，环比降1.3%。 展望来看，该行预期铁矿加速增产且需求难有较大提升，铁矿或逐步进入宽松周期，铁矿价格向上弹性 有限，钢铁成本掣肘因素有望改善，行业盈利中枢有望逐步修复。 需求有望企稳，供给维持收缩预期 地产持续下行，导致地产端需求占比下降，该行预期地产对钢铁需求的负向拖拽将减弱;基建、制造业 端用钢需求有望平稳增长。出口方面，1-7月钢材出口量仍维持同比增长。总体来看，该行预期钢铁需 求有望逐步企稳。供给端来看，行业自2022Q3开始亏损，目前仍有超30%钢企亏损，供给 ...

Group 1 - As of August 26, 2025, 22 listed companies in the steel industry reported their mid-year results, with 12 companies achieving over 100% year-on-year growth in net profit, despite 11 of them experiencing a decline in operating revenue [1] - For instance, Tianjin Youfa Steel Pipe Group Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 24.888 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.81% year-on-year, while net profit reached 287 million yuan, an increase of 160.36% [1] - The main reasons for the revenue decline but profit improvement include significant reductions in raw material costs, industry self-discipline in production control, and optimization of product structure towards high-end products, with high-value-added products accounting for 35% to 40% of the industry [1] Group 2 - In the first half of 2025, prices for raw materials such as iron ore and coking coal saw significant declines, with the 62% Australian fines index at $93.55 per dry ton, down 7.28% from the beginning of the year, and coking coal prices dropping by 19.70% [2] - Companies have managed to reduce supply pressure through self-discipline in production, which has provided some support for steel prices, while optimizing product structures has led to lower inventory and improved profitability [2] - Looking ahead, the steel industry is expected to experience a "turning point," with the overall market potentially improving, contingent on effective production control and the recovery of domestic demand, particularly from the manufacturing sector [2]

国泰海通指出，钢铁行业长期发展趋势是产业集中度提升和高质量发展，具备产品结构与成本优势 的钢企将受益。在环保加严、超低排放改造与碳中和背景下，龙头公司竞争优势与盈利能力将更加凸 显。需求方面，基建、制造业用钢需求有望平稳增长，1-7月钢材出口量仍维持同比增长，预期钢铁需 求将逐步企稳。 钢铁ETF（515210）跟踪的是中证钢铁指数（930606），该指数从A股市场中选取涉及普钢、特钢 等业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映钢铁行业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。指数成分股覆盖 钢铁产业链上下游企业，其持仓主要集中于原材料行业，并在沪深交易所均衡分布。 没有股票账户的投资者可关注国泰中证钢铁ETF联接C（008190），国泰中证钢铁ETF联接A （008189）。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不 预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参 考，不构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险 等级相匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：张晓波 ） ...

国泰海通发布研报称，钢铁行业需求有望逐步触底;供给端即便不考虑供给政策，目前行业亏损时间已 经较长，供给的市场化出清已开始出现，该行预期钢铁行业正在逐步走出底部。而若供给政策落地，行 业供给的收缩速度更快，行业上行的进展将更快展开。维持行业"增持"评级。长期来看，产业集中度提 升、促进高质量发展是未来钢铁行业发展的必然趋势，具有产品结构与成本优势的钢企将充分受益;在 环保加严、超低排放改造与碳中和背景下，龙头公司竞争优势与盈利能力将更加凸显。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 需求环比下降，但总库存仍维持下降 地产持续下行，导致地产端用钢需求占比下降，该行预期地产对需求的负向拖拽将逐渐减弱;基建、制 造业端需求有望平稳增长。出口方面，1-6月我国钢材出口量仍维持同比增长，同比增幅9.2%。总体来 看，该行预期钢铁需求有望逐步企稳。供给端来看，行业自2022Q3开始亏损，目前仍有约40%钢企亏 损，供给市场化出清已开始出现，行业正在逐步走出底部。7月18日，工信部总工程师谢少锋在国新办 新闻发布会上表示"钢铁、有色金属、石化、建材等十大重点行业稳增长工作方案即将出台，工业和信 息化部将推动重点行业着力调结构、优供给、淘汰 ...

Group 1 - Shareholder Xinhui Investment of Boqian New Materials plans to reduce its stake by up to 2.616 million shares, representing no more than 1% of the company's total share capital, through block trading within three months after the announcement [1] - The reduction may raise concerns about shareholder confidence in the company, potentially putting short-term pressure on the stock price, but the small percentage and extended time frame suggest limited long-term impact [1] - The company needs to stabilize investor expectations through subsequent performance [1] Group 2 - In the first half of 2025, the silicon industry chain has seen market prices persistently below production costs, leading to widespread losses among production enterprises [2] - The overall operating rate of the top five polysilicon companies was 42.2%, with the lowest operating load at only 24.1% [2] - Through production cuts and load reductions, the polysilicon market has nearly reached a balance between supply and demand, which may help eliminate outdated capacity and enhance industry concentration in the long run, despite ongoing short-term profitability pressures [2] Group 3 - Baichuan Co., Ltd. announced that its actual controller and chairman, Zheng Tiejiang, has returned to work and is able to fulfill his duties normally [3] - Zheng Tiejiang, who holds 14.19% of the company's shares, was previously under investigation, raising market concerns [3] - The resolution of this issue may enhance the stability of the company's governance structure and boost investor confidence, although the long-term impact on the company's development remains to be seen [3]

Group 1 - The steel industry maintains an "overweight" rating, with a long-term trend towards increased industry concentration and high-quality development, benefiting companies with product structure and cost advantages [1] - Steel demand has increased on a month-on-month basis, with total inventory decreasing, indicating a recovery from previous accumulation [2] - The average gross profit per ton for rebar and hot-rolled coil has risen, reflecting improved profitability in the industry [3] Group 2 - Domestic steel demand is expected to stabilize gradually, with a reduction in the negative impact from the real estate sector and continued support from infrastructure [4] - Supply-side weaknesses are highlighted, with some steel companies experiencing cash flow losses, leading to potential production cuts in 2024 and 2025 [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission has proposed ongoing control of crude steel production, indicating a push for industry consolidation and improved profitability [4]

Group 1 - The steel industry is rated "overweight" by Guotai Junan, with a long-term trend towards increased industry concentration and high-quality development, benefiting companies with product structure and cost advantages [1] - Last week, the apparent consumption of five major steel products was 8.452 million tons, a decrease of 1.2566 million tons week-on-week, while total inventory rose to 14.7607 million tons, an increase of 289,700 tons [1] - The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills was 84.62%, up 0.29 percentage points week-on-week, indicating a slight recovery in production capacity [1] Group 2 - The average gross profit per ton for rebar was 192.3 CNY, down 39.7 CNY week-on-week, while the average gross profit for hot-rolled coil was 67.2 CNY, down 34.7 CNY [2] - The profitability rate of 247 steel companies was 58.87%, an increase of 2.59 percentage points week-on-week, suggesting a potential recovery in industry profitability [2] - Iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 142.39 million tons, a decrease of 640,000 tons week-on-week, indicating a potential easing of supply constraints [2] Group 3 - The negative impact of the real estate sector on steel demand is expected to diminish, while infrastructure investment will continue to support demand stability [3] - There is a possibility of further production cuts or even shutdowns in the supply side due to cash flow issues among smaller steel companies [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission has proposed continued regulation of crude steel production in 2025, aiming for industry consolidation and long-term profitability recovery [3]