水泥行业专家交流 20260304 摘要 2026 年全国水泥需求预计约 16 亿吨，同比降幅收窄至 5%-6%；新开 工下滑 10%拖累房建需求，基建端因传统项目占比下降预计下滑超 7%。 行业盈利呈"前低后高"走势，全年利润有望持平或小幅提升；核心变 量在于下半年超产管控力度及稳增长政策对效益的改善作用。 三北及西部地区节后大幅推涨 40-50 元旨在抬高全年价格基数，目前多 为"有价无市"；长三角及华南预计 3 月中下旬迎来实质性普涨窗口。 超产治理进展超预期，截至 2 月底全国已退出劣势产能 1.83 亿吨，3 月 底有望达 2 亿吨；4 月起置换政策收严，外购指标成本将显著抬升。 海螺水泥长三角供给策略出现变化，熟料出口分流显著降低了其在国内 市场的量覆盖，2026 年春节停产天数与去年基本持平。 碳交易 2026 年引入"标准值±3%"规则，对低效企业成本影响约<5 元 /吨；2027 年有望启动总量控制，届时安徽、广东等超产省份将受限。 预计 2026 年行业价格与盈利走势呈"前低后高"。2026 年开局价格处于相 对底部、低开运行，上半年或处于较混乱格局下的底部盘整阶段；行业仍处下 行周期，结 ...

Morning session notice 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | | | 钢材: 【行情复盘】 周一螺纹热卷夜盘收跌。 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | 1、3 月 2 日，鞍山市启动重污染天气应急响应黄色(Ⅲ级)预警。目前鞍山地区钢企 | | | | 执行停限产措施，部分钢企执行减产 40%。 | | | | 2、据生态环境部，全国 95%的煤电装机，90%的钢铁产能，3.6 亿吨焦化产能，4.7 | | | | 亿吨水泥熟料产能完成了超低排放改造。 | | | | 3、3 月 2 日，宝武集团中南钢铁与中国平煤神马集团举行战略合作协议签约仪式。 | | 黑色建材 | 钢材 震荡 | 双方表示将积极推进集团高层确立的优质资源向优质企业倾斜的战略部署，实现资 | | | | 源高效配置、优势互补。 | | | | 【市场逻辑】 | | | | 伊朗局势对我国钢材出口直 ...

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 3 月 3 日星期二 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 Morning session notice 早盘提示 | | | | 黑色建材 | 铁矿 | 震荡 | 铁矿: 【行情复盘】 周一夜盘铁矿收涨。 【重要资讯】 1、1、3 月 2 日，鞍山市启动重污染天气应急响应黄色(Ⅲ级)预警。目前鞍山地区 钢企执行停限产措施，部分钢企执行减产 40%。 2、据生态环境部，全国 95%的煤电装机，90%的钢铁产能，3.6 亿吨焦化产能，4.7 亿吨水泥熟料产能完成了超低排放改造。 3、3 月 2 日，宝武集团中南钢铁与中国平煤神马集团举行战略合作协议签约仪式。 双方表示将积极推进集团高层确立的优质资源向优质企业倾斜的战略部署，实现资 源高效配置、优势互补。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【市场逻辑】 2 月 23 日-3 月 1 日，全球铁矿石发运总量 3340.7 万吨，环比增加 19.8 万吨。澳 洲巴西铁矿发运总量 2 ...

报告导读： 需求有望逐步触底；供给端即便不考虑供给政策，目前行业微利时间已经较 长，供给的市场化出清已开始出现，我们预期钢铁行业基本面有望逐步修复。而若供给政 策落地，行业供给的收缩速度更快，行业上行的进展将更快展开。 报告来源 需求环比下降，库存环比上升。 上周（本报告中的上周均指 2026 年 2 月 23 日至 2 月 27 日当周） 上周主要钢材社会库存 1296 万吨，环比上升 114 万 吨；钢厂库存 550 万吨，环比上升 20 万吨。社会库存方面，上周螺纹钢社会库存 568 万吨，环比上升 73 万吨；线材社会库存 88 万吨，环比上升 15 万 吨；热卷社会库存 357 万吨，环比上升 17 万吨。钢厂库存方面，上周螺纹钢钢厂库存 233 万吨，环比上升 12 万吨；线材钢厂库存 85 万吨，环比上升 4 万吨；热卷钢厂库存 95 万吨，环比上升 1 万吨。 盈利率环比下降。 上周 45 港进口铁矿库存 17092 万吨，环增 146 万吨。 测算螺纹钢平均吨毛利为 192 元 / 吨，较上一周回升 6 元 / 吨，热卷模拟平 均吨毛利 54 元 / 吨，较上一周上升 18 元 / 吨。测算 ...

沪深两指小幅低开后迅速上涨，沪指在零轴附近保持小幅震荡走势， 深成指走势相对更弱。2 月 27 日下午开盘后，两指再度走出一波上涨， 随后保持震荡至收盘。最终沪指收涨 0.39%，深成指收跌 0.06%。创业 板指和科创 50 指数表现相对弱势，分别下跌 1.04%、上涨 0.15%。两 市成交量较前一交易日基本持平。 贵金属相关板块再度成为热点，同时电力产业链部分板块同样保持了 一定热度。两者的上涨逻辑与前几日并无太大变化，其中贵金属仍主 要受国际局势变化影响，而电力产业链则主要受 AI 发展需求推动。短 期内相关原因难以迅速消失，故仍存在博弈机会。 短期市场或延续震荡，需关注一季度政策窗口期及年报、季报业绩反 馈。中长期看，国际局势波动及 AI 产业溢出仍是市场主要关注方向。 操作方面，建议关注相对涨幅较低、估值合理的绩优蓝筹。 每日市场观察 2026 年 3 月 2 日 【今日关注】 【市场回顾】 市场概况：2 月 27 日，沪指 2 月累计涨 1.09%，呈现"冲高后窄幅震 荡"的走势，月线斩获 3 连阳。深成指累计涨 2.04%，创业板指累计跌 1.08%。 【资金面】 主力资金流向：2 月 27 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2026年03月02日08时23分 报告导读： 周六美以对伊发动袭击，周一开盘，原油价格大幅拉升，可能会对黑色商品有一定的情绪上的提振 ，但主要还是看市场的供需情况。供需方面，上 周 247家样本钢厂螺纹产量继续下降，表观需求环比回落，总库存继续回升，五大品种总产量大幅下降，库存继续增加，表观需求处于一年中的最 低。整体来看，目前市场整体仍处于供需双弱的状态 ，产量、需求处于低位，库存从低位快速增加，预计要到元宵节之后下游需求才会逐步启动 ， 市场对 2026 年的需求预期相对偏弱。从技术面看，期价出现大幅反弹后回落，显示上方阻力仍大。由于当前估值低，下方的空间或有限。 投资咨询系列报告 操作建议： 维持观望，谨慎交易 | 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3067 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 ...

各位投资人大家晚上好 我是东吴环保公园的人一轩然后今天的话也是这个再次在这个进门财经这个平台上跟各位领导这边汇报一下龙进环保的最新观点就我们可以看到其实在近期我们团队已经组织了多场龙进环保的线上汇报那其实也可以主要的点点是来自于这个近期在这个大气治理这一块政策评出啊 我们可以看到其实可追溯的就至少是有三个政策也包括了今天要讲的非电这一块这么一个改造的政策比如说像上周也是全国的环境空气质量标准提标的标准是最新出台然后再往前的话我们也看到像2026年大气污染治理的专项资金是提前下发结合到今天结合到本周的这么一个 非电领域改造的这么一个2026年目标的这么一个下发我们可以看到就国外层面从政策包括说从资金两个角度的话对于大气治理这一块的支持力度其实是在这个十五的开局之年体验出了一个非常高的一个强度 那么就在这个背景之下的话龙津环保的这个传统业务就咱们这个环保主业公司作为这个大气治理里边最龙头的公司应该也是通风授予整个行业需求的一个稳步的一个释放那么可以对这个15期间公司环保这块业务的这么一个基本面会有一个更加积极的这么一个预期同时的话向公司围绕整个矿业双碳 根据生态环境部新闻发布会的一个通稿的话在十四五期间其实国内一 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China Baowu Steel Group plans to fully subscribe to Chongqing Steel's 1 billion yuan private placement through its wholly-owned subsidiary, increasing its shareholding to 35.07% after the issuance [1][2] - The funds raised from the private placement will be used to supplement working capital and repay bank loans, enhancing control over Chongqing Steel [2] - The private placement shares will have a lock-up period of 36 months [2] Group 2 - Chongqing Steel expects a net profit loss of 2.5 billion to 2.8 billion yuan for the full year of 2025, which is a reduction in loss compared to the previous year [3] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 19.091 billion yuan and a net profit loss of 218 million yuan, reflecting an 83.82% reduction in loss year-on-year [3] - The steel market's supply-demand adjustments and asset impairment provisions are the main factors affecting the company's financial performance [3] Group 3 - The steel industry is expected to promote capacity optimization and ultra-low emission transformation according to the "Steel Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" [4] - Chongqing Steel is advancing environmental upgrades in line with policy requirements, aiming to complete ultra-low emission transformation by the end of 2025 [4] Group 4 - On February 10, 2026, Chongqing Steel had a net financing inflow of 563,700 yuan, with financing balance rising to 1.97 billion yuan, although the stock price faced short-term pressure with a 2.46% decline over the past week [5] - The A-share steel sector was boosted by industry policy expectations during the same period [5] Group 5 - Between July 2024 and July 2025, China Baowu increased its stake in Chongqing Steel by acquiring 137 million shares (1.55% of total share capital) for a total investment of 150.5 million yuan, demonstrating long-term confidence in the company [6]

Group 1 - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, along with relevant departments and local governments, implemented 24,000 ecological environment governance projects, resulting in a significant reduction in the total emissions of major pollutants such as nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds, chemical oxygen demand, and ammonia nitrogen [1] - The reduction in nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds reached approximately 210,000 tons and 220,000 tons respectively, with the elimination of outdated production capacity including over 120 million tons of step-type sintering machine capacity and over 68 million tons of 4.3-meter and below coke oven capacity [1] - Urban environmental infrastructure construction has seen significant improvements, with cumulative reductions of approximately 3.2 million tons in chemical oxygen demand and 350,000 tons in ammonia nitrogen emissions through sewage treatment projects [1] Group 2 - A total of 124 major projects for soil pollution source control were implemented during the "14th Five-Year Plan," managing the leakage risk of 55 million tons of toxic and harmful substances annually [2] - The capacity for centralized treatment of hazardous waste reached 220 million tons per year, a 60% increase compared to 2020 [2] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment plans to focus on strategic and leading major projects in areas such as air, water, and soil protection, solid waste and new pollutant management, ecosystem optimization, and climate change response for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [2]

Summary of Longking Environmental Conference Call Company Overview - Longking Environmental maintains a leading position in the flue gas treatment sector with a market share of approximately 30% [2][4] - The company is expanding into non-electric industries, benefiting from increased demand in thermal power, leading to a rise in order volume [2] Key Developments - Zijin Mining increased its stake in Longking Environmental to 33.76%, enhancing the company's long-term growth certainty and supporting its valuation [2][5] - The green energy business is the fastest-growing segment, with projects like the Lagocuo project showing good profitability and others expected to contribute significantly to EPS and ROE by 2026 and 2029 [2][6] Financial Performance - The company expects overall performance to exceed 1.7 billion RMB by 2027, achieving a compound growth rate of around 26% [3][16] - Core business in flue gas treatment shows stable performance with order volumes consistently above 10 billion RMB, holding nearly 20% market share in desulfurization and denitrification, and about 50% in dust removal [4] Emerging Business Areas - In the energy storage sector, the company has laid out 8.5 GWh of battery cells and a 2 GWh PAK system, expecting to turn losses into profits in the future [2][6] - Development of electric mining trucks is underway, with a significant agreement signed with Zijin Mining [7][12] - The company is also exploring new areas like wall-climbing robots, which could become potential growth points [7][14] Waste Management - The waste incineration business is being gradually divested, while hazardous waste treatment is improving through a commissioned operation model, which is expected to reduce losses and goodwill impairment risks [8][9] Future Outlook - Longking Environmental is well-positioned for future growth due to its stable core business, rapid expansion in green energy and storage, and the support from Zijin Mining's increased stake [10] - The company anticipates significant contributions from green energy projects to EPS and ROE, supporting valuation levels [10][16] - The financial outlook remains strong, with expected revenue growth and improved profitability driven by green energy initiatives [15][16] Investment Value - The company has a PEG ratio significantly below 1, indicating a high degree of investment certainty, making it an attractive option for new capital [3][17] - Despite a temporary decline in Q1 2025 due to order confirmation timing, the company is expected to recover and achieve substantial growth in subsequent quarters [17]