图:热卷 2601 周线图 成文日期：20250922 报告周期:周报 究分析师：安致远（期货从业资格证号：F03143832;投资咨询证书号：Z0022799) 热卷期货周报 核心观点： 本周期货盘面行情受原材料的上涨成材被动跟涨，但涨幅明显 微弱，主要还是需求上没有明显改善,市场预期不佳交易情绪消极。 据钢联数据显示,高炉开工率环比上升 0.15%至 83.98%,钢厂盈利 率环比下滑 1.30%至 58.87%，但热卷生产利润相对其他成材不错, 钢厂在利润被压缩后,一定会在成材品中做生产调配。本周全国热 卷周产量 326.49 万吨环比增加 1.35 万吨,五大品总库存环比下降 1.78 万吨至 1519.74 万吨，其中螺纹环比下降 3.58 万吨，热卷库存 环比上升 4.67 万吨;需求 321.82 万吨环比下降 4.34 万吨。热卷需 求端表现不佳，加之产量上升，抑制了现货价格上涨。 1 期货市场 1.1 合约价格 当周热卷期货价格呈现冲高回落小幅收涨的状态,周初两天连 续快速拉升后连续两天快速回落,周五开始回稳最终小幅收阳,周 K 线收涨 10 点，从主力合约走势图不难看出当周的上涨走势比较艰 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel and iron ore futures prices may fluctuate strongly due to the mitigation of off - season adverse factors, supply pressure, and limited inventory pressure [1][53][55]. - For steel, despite the pressure on macro - economic indicators in July, the end - demand may improve marginally, and supply may be under pressure, so steel futures prices may fluctuate strongly. For iron ore, although demand may be under marginal pressure, it still has resilience, and supply is marginally tight, so iron ore futures prices may also fluctuate strongly [2][3][53][55]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Supply - demand marginally loose and "anti - involution" policy with expected difference, steel and iron ore futures prices fluctuate downwards - Last week, the futures prices of steel and iron ore main contracts fluctuated downwards. The prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore main contracts fell by 2.16%, 2.27%, and 0.77% respectively. The macro - economic data in July showed pressure on the economy, and the supply of steel and iron ore increased significantly, with off - season factors still affecting, resulting in a marginally loose supply - demand situation. Also, the "anti - involution" policy implementation is market - based, and the short - term implementation may fall through, suppressing the bullish sentiment [6]. II. Steel supply - demand marginally tight, iron ore supply under pressure and demand with resilience, the pressure of inventory accumulation for steel and iron ore may be limited (1) Steel: Supply under pressure and demand warming up, futures prices may fluctuate strongly - **Terminal demand may show resilience**: Although macro - economic indicators in July were under pressure, the end of the "severe flood season" may relieve adverse weather factors, and the implementation of policies and project starts may improve the terminal demand for steel, especially for building materials [8][10][53]. - **Supply may be under marginal pressure**: Although steel mills' profits are okay, the approaching 9.3 parade may lead to significant production - restriction pressure on steel mills in North China, and the new round of supply - side reform in the steel industry may also limit the supply [26][53]. - **Limited pressure of inventory accumulation**: Although the expectation of "one - size - fits - all" forced production reduction is reduced and the real demand is still under pressure, the demand - side policies and the resilience of terminal demand may limit the pressure of inventory accumulation for rebar and hot - rolled coil [38]. (2) Iron ore: Demand under marginal pressure but with resilience and limited inventory pressure, futures prices may fluctuate strongly - **Demand with marginal pressure but resilience**: The upcoming 9.3 parade and the new round of supply - side reform in the steel industry may put marginal pressure on iron ore demand. However, steel mills' profits are okay, and the expectation of "one - size - fits - all" forced production reduction is reduced, so the demand may still have resilience [43][44][55]. - **Limited pressure of supply tightness**: Although the arrival of foreign ore decreased last week, the foreign ore shipment may return to normal, and the new production capacity of foreign mines and overseas equity mines may increase, so the pressure of supply tightness may be limited [46][47]. - **Limited inventory accumulation**: Due to the potential production - restriction of steel mills, iron ore demand may be under marginal pressure. But considering the resilience of demand, the accumulation of port inventory may be limited [49][52][55]. III. Mitigation of off - season adverse factors, supply under pressure, and limited inventory pressure, steel and iron ore futures prices may fluctuate strongly - **Steel**: The end - demand may improve marginally, and supply may be under pressure, so steel futures prices may fluctuate strongly. Steel producers and high - inventory traders are advised to speed up sales, while low - inventory traders and end - users can buy on dips or establish long hedging positions on the futures market. Investors can take short - term long positions on dips, and arbitrageurs can try to go long on the rebar - to - iron - ore ratio, all with stop - loss and take - profit [2][53]. - **Iron ore**: Although demand may be under marginal pressure, it still has resilience, and supply is marginally tight, so iron ore futures prices may fluctuate strongly. Steel mills and low - inventory traders can buy on dips or establish long hedging positions on the futures market, while high - inventory traders can speed up sales. Investors can trade within a range, and arbitrageurs can try to go long on the rebar - to - iron - ore ratio, all with stop - loss and take - profit [3][55].

Industry Overview - The steel industry is facing a challenging market environment with weak demand and declining profits, prompting companies to enhance cost reduction and efficiency while focusing on product differentiation and innovation [2][4] - From January to June, national pig iron and crude steel production decreased by 4.7% and 6.5% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a significant supply-demand imbalance despite the production decline [3] Market Dynamics - Steel demand has been negatively impacted by COVID-19 outbreaks in various regions, leading to a decline in key downstream industries and resulting in high steel inventory levels [3] - As of late June, steel inventory for key member enterprises of the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) reached 16.95 million tons, a 50% increase from the beginning of the year [3] Price Trends - The average China Steel Price Index (CSPI) for the first half of the year was 133.92 points, a decrease of 2.85% year-on-year, with prices showing a trend of rising in the first four months and declining in May and June [3] - Raw material costs remain high, with coking coal prices averaging 2,956 yuan per ton, up 68.2% year-on-year, and coke prices averaging 3,099 yuan per ton, up 28.53% year-on-year [3] Financial Performance - CISA member steel enterprises reported a total revenue of 3.339 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 4.65%, while total profits fell by 55.47% to 103.4 billion yuan [4] - The average sales profit margin decreased by 3.53 percentage points to 3.10% [4] Future Outlook - The steel industry is expected to see a gradual improvement in demand in the third quarter, driven by infrastructure investment and stabilization in the real estate sector [4] - The CISA emphasizes the need for supply-side structural reforms and strict adherence to production capacity reduction policies to stabilize the market [5] Strategic Responses - Companies are encouraged to adopt self-discipline and adjust production based on actual demand, avoiding blind production and unhealthy competition [6][9] - The industry is shifting focus from quantity to quality, with an emphasis on innovation, digital transformation, and green development to enhance competitiveness [8][10] Industry Consolidation - The steel industry is expected to undergo further consolidation, with the emergence of large-scale steel enterprises and specialized firms in niche markets [10] - The current market downturn may facilitate resource reallocation and improve operational efficiency through mergers and acquisitions [10]