2025 年 9 月 19 日 总量研究 对非美出口韧性还会持续吗？ ——《见微知著》第二十七篇 要点 引言： 2025 年以来，在全球贸易不确定性加剧的背景下，我国出口仍然维持了较高的 增速。究其原因，主要是对非美出口的高增长抵消了对美出口的下行。我们进一 步深入研究发现，我国对欧洲、东盟、非洲等市场出口增长的驱动因素其实是存 在差异的，这些因素还会持续拉动我国出口吗？本文围绕这个问题展开讨论。 核心观点： 2025 年至今我国出口表现如何？ 在全球贸易不确定性加剧的背景下，2025 年 1-8 月我国出口仍然强劲。分区域 看，东盟、非洲、欧盟是主要贡献项，美国是主要拖累项。分产品看，我国出口 产品进一步向高端制造业集聚，劳动密集型行业从产品出口转向产能出海。 对非美出口增长的驱动因素是什么？ 转口贸易并非出口高增的主因。由于全球制造业保持高景气叠加同比低基数，自 2024 年 5 月开始我国对非美区域就开始保持较高同比增速。在 2025 年 4 月我 国对美国出口大幅下跌时，仅对东盟出口同比增速在 4-5 月时存在明显的脉冲式 上行。 欧盟：居民消费回升是主要驱动力。我国对欧盟出口增速较高的是消费品。主要 ...

Group 1: Competitive Advantages - The company has a comprehensive product line that includes mixed base and resin-based thermal transfer ribbons, catering to diverse application needs, enhancing competitiveness in applicability [2][3] - Performance advantages are highlighted by the high accuracy and readability of barcodes, with products designed to meet specific industry requirements, ensuring strong competitiveness in downstream applications [3] - Cost advantages stem from technological innovation, sales model optimization, production efficiency, and lean management, allowing the company to maintain a competitive edge in pricing while ensuring product quality [3] Group 2: Customer Service and Market Expansion - The company has established subsidiaries in countries such as the USA, UK, Canada, India, Mexico, Brazil, France, Vietnam, and Thailand, enhancing customer service responsiveness and satisfaction through local teams [4] - Following the acquisition of German CALOR and French RTT companies, the company focuses on product technology collaboration, core team integration, and market resource sharing to enhance its presence in the high-end color ribbon market [5] Group 3: Raw Material Management and Cost Stability - In the first half of 2025, raw material prices for polyester film and wax increased, prompting the company to monitor price trends and enhance supply chain management [6] - The company aims to optimize product processes to improve raw material utilization efficiency and expand production scale, thereby reducing unit costs and mitigating risks from raw material price fluctuations [7]