但在这这一片火热中，帮主想请大家留意几个细节。昨天，领涨的商业航天板块盘中出现了大幅跳水， 虽然最终收回来了，但这个波动给所有人都提了个醒：市场积累了大量的短期获利盘，一旦风吹草动， 波动会非常剧烈。这就像爬山爬得正起劲，突然一阵强风吹来，你得抓牢才行。 那咱们中长线投资者，面对这种十年一遇的连阳行情，是该跟风猛冲，还是该稳守阵地？我的观点很明 确：可以乐观，但必须清醒。市场的热度是事实，经济预期的改善、增量资金的入场、政策面的支持， 这些都是实实在在的支撑。不少公司自己也在回购股票，或者通过定增扩大投资，这说明产业资本对后 市也有信心。 嘿，朋友们，是不是感觉最近朋友圈里聊股票的忽然多了起来？听说杭州有位90后朋友，两天时间用十 万本金赚了近一万，相当于一个月的工资。这行情，确实让人心痒痒。大家好，我是帮主郑重，做了二 十年财经记者，现在专注中长线投资。今天市场走出十六连阳，沪指一举冲破4100点，创下十年半新 高，咱们就来聊聊，这股热浪里，中长线投资者到底该怎么看、怎么动。 这波行情，火得确实有理由。日成交额重新站上三万亿元，市场仿佛回到了资金充沛的亢奋时刻。人工 智能、商业航天这些板块轮番领跑，赚钱效应 ...

Economic Overview - Yunnan Province's economic performance from January to November 2025 shows overall stability and a solid foundation for positive development, with high-quality growth being actively promoted [1] - State-owned enterprises (SOEs) in Yunnan play a crucial role in industrial production, consumption upgrades, investment growth, service sector development, and market stability, injecting strong momentum into the province's economic development [1] Industrial Production - Yunnan is committed to expanding its industrial sector, leveraging its resource-based industry advantages, and focusing on optimizing and upgrading its industrial structure [1] - The non-ferrous metal industry, led by SOEs, continues to grow rapidly at a rate of 13.2%, contributing 36.6% to the province's industrial growth [1] - The chemical industry, supported by technological innovation and resource integration from SOEs, has seen a growth of 3.7%, accelerating by 1.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] High-end Manufacturing - High-end manufacturing sectors, including equipment and high-tech manufacturing, have shown strong growth, with value-added increasing by 17.0% and 16.9% respectively, surpassing the overall industrial growth rate by 12.5 and 12.4 percentage points [2] - The electronics sector has experienced a growth of 21.6%, with a slight acceleration of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, contributing 24.3% to the overall industrial growth [2] - Emerging industries such as new energy batteries, green aluminum, and silicon photovoltaic, led by SOEs, have seen significant increases in value-added, with growth rates of 75.7%, 10.6%, and 4.7% respectively, becoming new engines for industrial growth [2] Future Outlook - Yunnan aims to maintain a stable yet progressive work approach, implementing more proactive macro policies to expand domestic demand and optimize supply [2] - SOEs in Yunnan are expected to continue their leading role, actively contributing to the effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth of the economy, thereby enhancing the province's high-quality economic and social development [2]

格隆汇1月5日｜近日消息，港股上市公司、国内头部的产业互联网平台——汇通达网络(9878.HK)拟收 购的高端制造业上市公司——金通灵(300091.SZ)重整工作取得关键进展。金通灵于2025年12月31日收 到南通市中级人民法院裁定受理重整申请，标志着金通灵的重整工作步入司法程序，进入实质推进阶 段。 据悉，汇通达于去年9月公告宣布拟收购金通灵25%股权，收购完成后将成为金通灵最大股东。此 次重整申请获得法院受理，是该项收购顺利推进的核心环节。 随着法院受理重整，金通灵股票于1月6 日复牌后股票简称将变更为"*ST通灵"。这是A股市场对于进入重整程序上市公司的标准流程和常规监 管措施，旨在提示投资者相关公司正处于特殊治理阶段。 市场预期，重整程序完成后，金通灵的基本 面将得到显著改善，有望重回持续经营和盈利轨道。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The State Council's Tariff Policy Committee has announced the "2026 Tariff Adjustment Plan," effective from January 1, 2026, aimed at optimizing import tariffs to promote high-quality development and meet the growing needs of the population [1][2]. Group 1: High-end Manufacturing and Technology Industry - The industry will benefit directly from reduced import tariffs on key components and advanced materials, such as hydraulic cushions and composite connectors, which will lower import costs and enhance supply stability [4]. - The tariff reduction is expected to alleviate financial pressure on companies importing critical semiconductor equipment, thereby accelerating domestic substitution processes and fostering a favorable development environment [4]. Group 2: Healthcare Sector - The tariff adjustments will lower import tariffs on medical products like artificial blood vessels and diagnostic kits, reducing procurement costs for domestic healthcare institutions and improving access to quality medical resources [4]. - The ongoing optimization of tariff policies will further decrease operational costs for healthcare companies, enhancing their market competitiveness [4]. Group 3: Foreign Trade and Retail - Foreign trade enterprises, particularly those engaged in cross-border operations, will benefit from tariff reductions, with products like coffee beans and automotive engines included in the "zero tariff" list [5]. - The rising demand in the duty-free shopping market, exemplified by a 54.9% year-on-year increase in Hainan's duty-free shopping amount, will drive growth in related industries such as shipping and logistics [5]. Group 4: Green Energy - The green energy sector will see advantages from reduced import tariffs on resource products, such as recycled black powder for lithium-ion batteries, lowering production costs for new energy battery manufacturers [5]. - The easing of tariffs is expected to provide more certainty for global investments in the new energy sector, further reducing export costs for China's photovoltaic and new energy vehicle industries [5].

12月25日，俄罗斯卫星通讯社报道称，彭博社引述官方和市场人士的说法，尽管中美两国达成了协议，中国恢复向美国出口稀土制品，可是对一些重要的稀 土元素依旧设有限制。 比如，某些美国公司拿不到金属镝或者它的氧化物。 这到底是咋回事呢？中国的限制对美国造成了啥影响？美国拿到稀土制成品后，想再弄到它的原材料，究竟是为什么呢？ 得先说一句，稀土和稀土制品可不是一回事哦，比如那种高性能的稀土永磁体，它的核心成分可是钕、镨这类稀土元素，所以人家都习惯叫它"稀土永磁 体"。 像那种高性能的钕铁硼磁体，可是很多尖端行业的关键配件，比如常用在国防、军工，还包括高端制造业啥的。 我们和美国谈妥的协议，就是直接把一些高性能的磁体供应过去，避免美国那边的一些工业陷入停产的境地。 但就是没有把那些重要的稀土元素直接出口到美国。 像美国媒体提到的镝金属或它的氧化物，这玩意儿可是做高性能磁铁的必备材料，属于那种极其关键的"配料"。要是没有镝或它的氧化物，美国实际上就别 想搞出符合各种需求的顶级磁体了。 中国出口到美国的磁铁，基本上都是加工好、加了镝的高端磁体，已经是成品状态了。 美国想单独进口镝，可中国却对这个设限了。 这一下子限制对美国到 ...

Core Insights - The internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) is accelerating, with a 14.0% year-on-year increase in cross-border RMB payments in the first half of the year, making it the second-largest trade financing currency and the third-largest payment currency globally [1] - The inclusion of RMB in the International Air Transport Association's (IATA) clearing system marks a significant milestone in the functional recognition of RMB in international financial clearing [1] - The transformation of RMB from a payment tool to an operational currency is evident, particularly among European companies deeply engaged in the Chinese market [2] Group 1: RMB's Role in Global Trade - RMB is increasingly embedded in global industrial division and multinational corporate operations, transitioning from a foreign exchange currency to an operational currency for European enterprises [2] - The local procurement, production, and sales cycles established by companies like Volkswagen and BMW in China create a natural demand for RMB as a key currency for pricing, settlement, and asset-liability management [2] Group 2: Corporate Adoption of RMB - The core motivation for multinational companies to adopt RMB has shifted from merely saving on exchange costs to enhancing risk management and optimizing global liquidity structures [3] - By integrating RMB into their internal settlement systems as a functional currency, companies achieve valuable natural hedging against financial risks from exchange rate fluctuations [3] Group 3: Institutional and Market Developments - The RMB internationalization process has made significant progress in institutional frameworks and market product innovation, transitioning from a regional payment method to a global trading and reserve network [4] - The establishment of offshore RMB market cooperation in bilateral mechanisms indicates a shift from spontaneous market behavior to coordinated policy efforts [4] Group 4: Global Currency System Diversification - The diversification of the global currency system, driven by changes in the global economic landscape and geopolitical factors, presents a "window of opportunity" for RMB [5] - A report indicates that 59% of sovereign institutions plan to increase their holdings of Chinese assets over the next five years, with North American sovereign funds showing a 73% willingness to invest [5] Group 5: Central Bank Perspectives - For central banks like the European Central Bank and the German Central Bank, the rationale for allocating RMB assets lies in achieving diversification of reserve assets [6] - RMB government bonds exhibit low correlation with Western assets, providing strategic hedging value and independent attributes in investment portfolios [6]

Group 1: Policy Overview - The Hainan Free Trade Port's closure policy aims to enhance market vitality and openness by reducing institutional costs through "zero tariffs," trade management relaxation, and efficient supervision[5] - "One line open" allows free movement of goods between Hainan and foreign countries, while "two lines control" regulates goods entering the mainland, ensuring tax security and preventing smuggling[5][17] - The proportion of "zero tariff" goods will increase from 1,900 to approximately 6,600 items, covering 74% of all tariff items, significantly reducing import costs[9] Group 2: Economic Impact - Hainan's policies are expected to attract global resources, enhancing its role as an international resource allocation hub[5] - The personal income tax rate for high-end and scarce talents in Hainan is capped at 15%, significantly lower than the mainland's 25%, attracting high-income individuals[27] - The corporate income tax rate for eligible enterprises is reduced to 15%, encouraging talent retention and investment[29] Group 3: Industry Development - Hainan's focus on processing and value-added tax exemptions is driving the clustering of high-tech enterprises and industrial upgrades, particularly in energy, digital economy, and biomedicine[24][30] - Key industrial parks in Hainan, such as Yangpu and Haikou, are becoming hubs for high-end industries, contributing over 30% of total tax revenue despite occupying less than 1% of the land area[32] Group 4: Regional Collaboration - The "front store, back factory" model is evolving, with Hainan serving as an order and trade settlement center while surrounding provinces handle large-scale production[45] - Enhanced logistics capabilities at Hainan's ports and airports are expected to create a complementary port cluster with Guangdong and Guangxi, improving regional cooperation and trade efficiency[45]

Group 1: Manufacturing Industry Trends - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aimed to maintain a stable proportion of manufacturing, while the "15th Five-Year Plan" shifts to maintaining a "reasonable proportion," indicating a potential decline from the current level, which is double the OECD average[2][10]. - In 2024, China's nominal manufacturing value added is projected to account for 24.9% of GDP, significantly higher than the OECD average of 12.4%[2][10]. - From 2011 to 2020, China's manufacturing value added as a percentage of GDP decreased from 31.6% to 25.7%, but the decline has slowed since 2020 due to real estate cycle adjustments[2][11]. Group 2: Investment and Growth Rates - The annualized growth rate of China's real manufacturing value added (PPP) from 2021 to 2024 is expected to be 4.6%, surpassing the global average of 1.7% during the same period[2][20]. - High-end manufacturing investment is projected to grow at an annualized rate of 12.2% from 2021 to 2024, outpacing the overall manufacturing investment growth rate of 9.5%[3][26]. - Traditional manufacturing sectors are expected to see an investment growth rate increase from 2.9% during the "13th Five-Year Plan" to an average of 8.9% from 2021 to 2024[3][27]. Group 3: Emerging Industries and Future Prospects - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes breakthroughs in high-tech industries and aims to enhance competitiveness in sectors like AI, hydrogen energy, and quantum information[3][29]. - The production of new energy vehicles is projected to rise from 340,000 units in 2015 to 13.168 million units in 2024, reflecting significant growth in the sector[3][46]. - The brain-computer interface industry is expected to grow from 2.33 billion yuan in 2022 to 3.2 billion yuan in 2024, with an annual growth rate of 17.2%[3][48].

Core Viewpoint - The Hainan closure policy is a significant initiative in China's new round of reform and opening-up, characterized by unprecedented depth in institutional design and broad policy coverage [1] Group 1: Policy Framework - Hainan's free trade port policy system is built on "zero tariffs, low tax rates, and simplified tax systems," which significantly reduces operational costs for enterprises [1] - The financial sector in Hainan adopts a regulatory model of "freeing up the first line and controlling the second line," facilitating the liberalization and convenience of cross-border capital flows [1] - The establishment of the EF account system provides an upgraded infrastructure for financial openness [1] Group 2: Economic Opportunities - The policy dividends are expected to make Hainan a hotspot for industrial migration, with high-end manufacturing, air logistics, and digital economy industries likely to cluster in the region, creating new economic growth points [1] - Hainan's measures to relax visa policies and optimize the tourism environment effectively stimulate overseas consumption and enhance its status as an international tourism consumption center [1] Group 3: Demographic Changes - The relaxation of household registration policies and talent introduction plans in Hainan significantly promote population structure optimization and urbanization processes [1] - The influx of high-quality talent provides strong support for the construction of Hainan's free trade port [1] Group 4: Challenges and Future Outlook - The Hainan closure policy faces risks and challenges from deteriorating international economic and trade relations and rising global trade protectionism, which may restrict population migration [1] - Overall, the Hainan closure policy is expected to significantly enhance Hainan's position in the global value chain and inject new momentum into China's high-quality economic development [1] - Hainan needs to continue deepening policy implementation, strengthening risk prevention, and promoting the continuous achievement of new results in free trade port construction [1]

2026年作为"十五五"开局之年，经济增长目标预计维持在5%左右，实际增长率约4.9%，名义GDP增速升至4.2%左右，经济运行聚焦"质价共进"。投资端， 制造业在高端化智能化驱动下增速预计达5.2%，"十五五"重大项目推动广义基建投资增长6%，房地产投资降幅收窄至-10%。消费端，社消增速乐观预期达 5%，县域消费与医疗、教育、文旅等服务消费成为重要增长点，CPI和PPI预计分别回升至0.5%、-1%至0区间。外需受益于中美短期贸易协议及安全型走廊 贸易深化，出口增速预计在4%-5%。 政策层面延续宽松基调，财政政策持续发力，预算赤字率或突破4%，新增专项债限额约4.5万亿元，超长期特别国债发行规模扩大至1.4-1.5万亿元，重点支 持"两重"建设与消费品以旧换新。货币政策保持适度宽松，美联储降息背景下，国内或有25bp降准和10bp降息空间，社会融资规模增速预计保持8%以上。 税制改革聚焦动态调整，将持续提升直接税占比，健全经营、资本、财产所得税收政策。 大类资产配置方面，超配美股（受益于流动性宽松与AI资本开支增长）、黄金（上半年降息预期与央行购金支撑）、铜（供给紧张叠加AI电网需求）；低 配原油（库存 ...