Core Viewpoint - India's economic and political situation has drastically changed due to Trump's recent threats of imposing secondary tariffs on Russian oil, directly targeting India while bypassing China, leading to confusion and concern within India [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Impact - Trump's decision to impose a 25% tariff on Indian goods, raising the total tariffs to 50%, is based on India's high tariffs on U.S. goods and its cooperation with Russia [2][5]. - The potential tariffs could affect approximately 55% of India's export value, equating to $87.3 billion, with a previous trade surplus of $45.8 billion with the U.S. [7][9]. - Labor-intensive sectors, particularly the gems and jewelry industry, which exports about 30% to the U.S., may face severe impacts from the high tariffs, potentially leading to a loss of $30 billion to $35 billion in overseas sales and a slowdown in GDP growth by nearly one percentage point [9][11]. Group 2: Political Response - The Indian government has not received directives to alter its oil import strategy, maintaining its current procurement levels despite U.S. pressure [7]. - Modi's government has adopted a strong stance against U.S. pressure, emphasizing the protection of farmers and laborers' interests, and promoting self-reliance through initiatives like "Make in India" [9][11]. - Modi's independent day speech highlighted a commitment to not compromise on policies that could harm public welfare, reflecting a defensive strategy in response to external pressures [9]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Foreign investor confidence has been shaken, with a capital outflow of $2 billion from Indian markets in July, continuing into August, alongside a decline in foreign direct investment (FDI) [9]. - The overall economic outlook for India has become increasingly complex due to these developments, raising questions about the country's ability to sustain growth amid impending tariff impacts [11].

Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for May 2025 is reported at 49.5%, a significant increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, aligning with market expectations[2][4] - The production index rose to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from last month, indicating a recovery in production activities[5][14] - New orders index increased to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, reflecting improved demand conditions[5][14] - High-energy industries continue to decline, with the PMI dropping to 47.0%, down 0.7 percentage points, indicating ongoing challenges in these sectors[6] External Trade - The new export orders index rose to 47.5%, a significant increase of 2.8 percentage points, indicating a recovery in export activities following tariff reductions[21] - The import index increased to 47.1%, up 3.7 percentage points, suggesting improved import conditions[21] Service Sector - The service sector PMI increased slightly to 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points, remaining in the expansion zone, driven by increased tourism and hospitality activities during the May Day holiday[31] Construction Sector - The construction PMI is at 51.0%, down 0.9 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in expansion primarily due to weakened housing demand, although infrastructure projects are accelerating[35] - Special bond issuance has increased significantly, with 443.2 billion yuan issued in May, up from 230.1 billion yuan in April, supporting investment in infrastructure[35]

文 ｜ 杨帆 明明 玛西高娃 张黎阳 受美国加征关税以及海外补库力度减弱影响，今年1 - 2月出口增速较前值下降8 . 4个百分点，出口链 景气边际上有所回落，2月4日美国加征1 0%关税对出口的拖累开始显现。从出口结构上来看，今 年1 - 2月半导体产业链对出口的拉动作用较大，而代表性劳动密集型产品出口增速明显下降，这也 与我们之前做出的判断是相符的。进口方面，2 0 2 5年1 - 2月进口增速较前值下降9 . 4个百分点，主 要原因是今年前两月国内制造业景气较去年四季度有所回落以及2月份我国对美国反制加征关税。 向后看，地缘政治因素和海外加征关税的节奏会是影响我国2 0 2 5年出口增速的重要变量。短期 内，随着美国于3月4日加征的第二轮1 0%关税落地，贸易摩擦对我国出口的拖累可能会进一步加 大。同时我们提示关注计划于4月初发布的《美国优先贸易政策》备忘录调查结果对中美经贸关系 带来的潜在变化。 ▍ 短期内，随着美国于3月4日加征的第二轮1 0%关税落地，贸易摩擦对我国出口的拖累可能会 进一步加大。 ▍ 事项： 2 0 2 5年1 - 2月，中国出口金额（美元口径）同比上升2 . 3%（Wi n d一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent tariff threats from Trump against Mexico, Canada, and China, highlighting the potential impacts on China's exports and GDP, while suggesting that the overall effects remain manageable [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Impacts - Trump's additional 10% tariffs on China, effective March 4, 2025, are expected to marginally increase the drag on China's exports and GDP, with estimated impacts of approximately 1.8 percentage points on export growth and 0.2 percentage points on GDP for the quarter [3][4]. - Cumulatively, the tariffs imposed on February 4 and March 4 are projected to reduce China's quarterly exports and GDP by 3.3 and 0.36 percentage points, respectively [3][4]. - Labor-intensive industries in China, such as toys, furniture, and apparel, are likely to face significant impacts due to their high exposure to U.S. exports, with export shares to the U.S. reaching 32.7%, 25.0%, and 23.3% respectively [4][3]. Group 2: China's Response - China's countermeasures include imposing tariffs on U.S. agricultural products and placing certain U.S. entities on an unreliable entity list, reflecting an escalation in response to U.S. tariffs [2][4]. - The scale of goods affected by China's tariffs is estimated at $24.02 billion, accounting for 14.7% of total imports from the U.S. in 2024, which is an increase from 11.5% previously [4][2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - Despite the increase in external disturbances, market participants are expected to show greater tolerance, as Trump's focus remains on domestic policies rather than a direct confrontation with China [5][6]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. policies towards China is anticipated to rise in April, which could serve as a test for the restoration of market confidence, although the market has already priced in these expectations [5][6].