最近刷到不少人焦虑提问： "北京朝阳区的二手房挂了3个月没卖掉，还得再降多少才有人买？""上海浦东的房子比2021年跌了100 万，现在抄底会不会套牢？" 打开官方数据更揪心：2025年上半年，北上广深二手房价格环比、同比全是负增长，有的区单月跌幅甚 至超过2%。 虽然各地救市政策一轮接一轮——降首付、松限购、给补贴，但市场就像"温吞水"，没见明显回暖。 大家最关心的问题其实就一个：一线城市的房价还会跌多久？ 01. 美国上世纪末到2000年初，也经历过一轮疯狂的房地产热：银行随便放贷，普通人零首付就能买房，房 价像坐火箭一样涨。 但泡沫终究会破，2006年开始，美国房价掉头向下，2007年4月正式进入"下跌通道"，这一跌就跌了2 年。 直到2009年5月，以美国前十大城市标准普尔/CS房价指数为参考，房价才跌到谷底。 但触底不代表马上涨，之后又在低点徘徊了2年多，直到2012年1月才开始慢慢回升。 等到2018年，房价才重新回到2006年的高点。 后来疫情期间，美国搞量化宽松（简单说就是印钱），加上财政补贴，一线城市房价又涨了一波，甚至 超过了2018年的高点。 美国为什么能这么快恢复？核心原因有两个： 1 ...

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Core Insights - The new first-tier cities in China have become significant population inflow areas, with a total population increase of 997,300 in 2024 across 15 new first-tier cities [1][2] - Among these cities, Hefei, Changsha, and Hangzhou experienced the highest population growth, each exceeding 100,000 [1][3] Population Growth - In 2024, the total population of the 15 new first-tier cities reached 203.38 million, with 12 cities having populations over 10 million [2] - Hefei's population grew by 149,000 from the end of 2023, reaching 10.002 million, making it the fourth city in the Yangtze River Delta to surpass 10 million [2][3] - The majority of Hefei's population increase is attributed to migration, with nearly 90% of the new residents coming from other regions [2] Economic and Industrial Development - Hefei's population growth is closely linked to its industrial development, particularly in emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and integrated circuits [2][4] - In Changsha, the rapid population increase is driven by the growth of industries like equipment manufacturing, cultural entertainment, and pharmaceuticals, which provide ample job opportunities [3][4] - Hangzhou's population growth is supported by its advancements in the internet and smart manufacturing sectors, expanding into areas like artificial intelligence [3][4] Industrial Performance - New first-tier cities are becoming hubs for modern industrial development, with significant growth in high-tech industries [4] - In Xi'an, the production of new energy vehicles increased by 14.3%, while solar cell production surged by 61.4% [4] - Zhengzhou saw a 98% increase in new energy vehicle production, positioning itself among the top cities in the sector [4] Talent Attraction - The trend of university graduates moving to new first-tier cities reflects a broader regional economic development strategy [5]