Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in major Chinese cities is experiencing a prolonged downturn, with prices expected to continue declining due to various economic factors and historical precedents from other countries [2][4][18]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - In major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, second-hand home prices are showing negative growth both month-on-month and year-on-year, with some districts experiencing monthly declines exceeding 2% [2]. - Despite multiple government measures aimed at stimulating the market, such as lowering down payments and relaxing purchase restrictions, there has been no significant recovery observed [2][4]. Group 2: Historical Comparisons - The article draws parallels between the current situation in China and past real estate bubbles in the United States and Japan, highlighting the differences in market responses and recovery timelines [4][10]. - The U.S. real estate market saw a significant decline starting in 2006, with prices not recovering to pre-crisis levels until 2018, while Japan's market has struggled for nearly three decades without returning to its 1990 peak [6][12][15]. Group 3: Key Factors Influencing Future Trends - The duration of the price adjustment in China's real estate market will depend on three critical factors: achieving a "reasonable valuation" for properties, stabilizing market expectations through effective policies, and maintaining a steady influx of population into major cities [20][25][31]. - Current rental yields in major cities are low, with Shanghai's core areas showing a rental yield of only 1.65%, indicating that property prices are still overvalued compared to historical norms [20][22]. Group 4: Future Projections - Projections suggest that while some cities may see a slight recovery in prices by 2028, the overall trend will likely be a slow adjustment over the next 3-5 years, with prices gradually moving towards a more reasonable valuation [31][45]. - The article emphasizes that the market is unlikely to experience a rapid recovery similar to the U.S. due to systemic risk aversion in China's financial system and deeper ties between real estate and public welfare [10][18].

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Core Insights - The new first-tier cities in China have become significant population inflow areas, with a total population increase of 997,300 in 2024 across 15 new first-tier cities [1][2] - Among these cities, Hefei, Changsha, and Hangzhou experienced the highest population growth, each exceeding 100,000 [1][3] Population Growth - In 2024, the total population of the 15 new first-tier cities reached 203.38 million, with 12 cities having populations over 10 million [2] - Hefei's population grew by 149,000 from the end of 2023, reaching 10.002 million, making it the fourth city in the Yangtze River Delta to surpass 10 million [2][3] - The majority of Hefei's population increase is attributed to migration, with nearly 90% of the new residents coming from other regions [2] Economic and Industrial Development - Hefei's population growth is closely linked to its industrial development, particularly in emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and integrated circuits [2][4] - In Changsha, the rapid population increase is driven by the growth of industries like equipment manufacturing, cultural entertainment, and pharmaceuticals, which provide ample job opportunities [3][4] - Hangzhou's population growth is supported by its advancements in the internet and smart manufacturing sectors, expanding into areas like artificial intelligence [3][4] Industrial Performance - New first-tier cities are becoming hubs for modern industrial development, with significant growth in high-tech industries [4] - In Xi'an, the production of new energy vehicles increased by 14.3%, while solar cell production surged by 61.4% [4] - Zhengzhou saw a 98% increase in new energy vehicle production, positioning itself among the top cities in the sector [4] Talent Attraction - The trend of university graduates moving to new first-tier cities reflects a broader regional economic development strategy [5]