最近刷到不少人焦虑提问： "北京朝阳区的二手房挂了3个月没卖掉，还得再降多少才有人买？""上海浦东的房子比2021年跌了100 万，现在抄底会不会套牢？" 打开官方数据更揪心：2025年上半年，北上广深二手房价格环比、同比全是负增长，有的区单月跌幅甚 至超过2%。 虽然各地救市政策一轮接一轮——降首付、松限购、给补贴，但市场就像"温吞水"，没见明显回暖。 大家最关心的问题其实就一个：一线城市的房价还会跌多久？ 01. 美国上世纪末到2000年初，也经历过一轮疯狂的房地产热：银行随便放贷，普通人零首付就能买房，房 价像坐火箭一样涨。 但泡沫终究会破，2006年开始，美国房价掉头向下，2007年4月正式进入"下跌通道"，这一跌就跌了2 年。 直到2009年5月，以美国前十大城市标准普尔/CS房价指数为参考，房价才跌到谷底。 但触底不代表马上涨，之后又在低点徘徊了2年多，直到2012年1月才开始慢慢回升。 等到2018年，房价才重新回到2006年的高点。 后来疫情期间，美国搞量化宽松（简单说就是印钱），加上财政补贴，一线城市房价又涨了一波，甚至 超过了2018年的高点。 美国为什么能这么快恢复？核心原因有两个： 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - Suzhou has rapidly implemented a policy to cancel the two-year sales restriction on newly built commercial housing, following Shanghai's recent easing of housing purchase restrictions, indicating a strong urgency to stabilize the real estate market [1][12]. Policy Changes - The Suzhou Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau announced the cancellation of the two-year sales restriction on new commercial housing on August 26, just one day after Shanghai's policy changes [1]. - This move, along with previous cancellations of purchase and loan restrictions, effectively removes barriers for all potential homebuyers in Suzhou [1]. Market Dynamics - Suzhou's real estate market has been significantly influenced by its geographical proximity to Shanghai, with a high-speed train connection of only half an hour, fostering resource flow and market vitality [3][4]. - The influx of investors from Shanghai and surrounding areas has been a key driver of Suzhou's rising property prices [4]. Market Trends - Recent regulatory measures have led to a cooling of Suzhou's once-booming real estate market, with significant price drops observed across various properties [5][7]. - For instance, properties in Suzhou have seen drastic price reductions, such as a drop from 2.5 million to 1.4 million for a specific unit [8], and a decline in average prices from 6,000 to 3,000 per square meter in certain areas [9]. Sales Performance - According to data from CRIC, Suzhou's residential property transactions in July fell to 120,000 square meters, representing a 70% month-on-month decrease and a 58% year-on-year decline [11]. - Following the new policy announcement, there was a surge in listings of second-hand homes, indicating a pent-up demand in the market [13][15]. Broader Implications - The fluctuations in Suzhou's real estate market may signal a broader issue of real estate bubble deflation in the surrounding Shanghai area, as cities with strong economic fundamentals are also experiencing significant price corrections [16][22]. - Other cities in the region, such as Qidong and Taicang, have also reported substantial declines in property prices, further highlighting the pressure on the real estate market in the context of Shanghai's policy relaxations [17][18][20].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic struggles faced by Japan's 60s generation, highlighting their transition from being the "luckiest generation" to experiencing significant debt and unemployment issues during their middle age [2][3]. Debt Crisis of the 60s Generation - The 60s generation faced severe debt issues, with average household debt reaching nearly 20 million yen, the highest among all generations at the time [3]. - This debt crisis was largely due to their home purchases coinciding with the peak of the real estate bubble in the 1980s, where land prices surged over 150% [3][4]. - By 1995, over half of the 60s generation households owned homes, but the anticipated rebound in property values never materialized, leading to a 20-year decline in housing prices [5][4]. Employment and Income Challenges - Following the bubble burst, companies struggled with high labor costs, leading to a significant drop in employee salaries starting in 1995, with disposable income for the 60s generation decreasing by nearly 25% [8][9]. - The unemployment rate for middle-aged individuals rose from 1.5% to 3% between the early 1990s and 1998, with many older workers losing their jobs and facing difficulties re-entering the workforce [9][10]. Credit Loan Crisis - The rise of unsecured credit loans became prevalent, with the market growing from 4.5 trillion yen in 1994 to over 10 trillion yen by 2000, primarily used to service existing debts [10][11]. - High-interest rates on these loans, often exceeding 30%, led many families into a cycle of debt, exacerbated by aggressive collection practices [11]. Family and Social Dynamics - The 60s generation also faced a significant increase in divorce rates, with over 2.77 million families divorcing in the decade following 1995, largely due to economic pressures and changing family roles [13][14]. - The traditional family structure, where the husband was the sole breadwinner, became unsustainable, leading to increased tensions and breakdowns in family relationships [14]. Long-term Consequences - By 2022, the average debt for the 60s generation remained around 6 million yen, double that of the previous generation, indicating a lasting impact of the economic turmoil [20]. - The societal perception of this generation shifted from being the "warm spring generation" to the "bubble generation," reflecting their once prosperous lives that turned into prolonged hardship [20].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the severe debt crisis facing China's real estate sector, highlighting the significant amount of bad debt and the implications for the broader economy [1][4]. Group 1: Debt Restructuring - Many private real estate companies in China are undergoing debt restructuring, which is essentially a way to default on debts, with creditors often receiving only a fraction of what they are owed [1][2]. - For example, a company may offer four options for debt repayment, including cash, stock swaps, asset exchanges, and debt extensions, but the actual value received by creditors is significantly lower than the original debt [2]. Group 2: Scale of Debt - The total domestic debt of Chinese real estate companies is approximately 6.5 trillion yuan, with an additional 3.5 trillion yuan owed internationally, peaking in maturity this year and next [2]. - The banking sector is exposed to around 50 trillion yuan in loans to real estate, with conservative estimates suggesting banks could face losses of over 30% due to declining land values [2]. - Other liabilities include 15-20 trillion yuan in trust and wealth management products, and 5-8 trillion yuan in debts owed to suppliers, leading to an estimated 50 trillion yuan in bad debts from the real estate bubble [2]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The 50 trillion yuan in bad debts represents a significant financial burden, equating to ten years of land sale revenues or three times the annual tax revenue [2]. - The ultimate burden of these bad debts will likely be transferred to the general public, either through bank failures or inflation caused by central bank interventions [2][5]. Group 4: Historical Context - The article draws a parallel with Japan's real estate crisis in the 1990s, where the total real estate debt was 450-550 trillion yen, approximately 220% of GDP, and took over 20 years to resolve [4]. - The ongoing debt crisis in China's real estate sector suggests that the repercussions may last for many years, with the societal costs just beginning to surface [5].

Economic Growth and Stock Market Performance - After World War II, Japan's economy began to recover in the early 1950s, achieving an average annual growth rate of 9.2% from 1953 to 1970, surpassing some developed countries [1] - Post-1970, Japan's economic growth rate declined as the advantages of being a latecomer diminished, with a significant drop in growth following the oil crisis and inflationary pressures [1] - From 1971 to 1990, Japan's economic growth rate stabilized around 4%, and further declined to approximately 1% after the real estate bubble burst in the early 1990s [1] Stock Market Returns - From 1953 to 2018, Japan's stock market yielded an average return of 5.5%, exceeding the economic growth rate of 4.3%, attributed to corporate leverage and the capital's advantageous position in income distribution [2] - Despite a downward trend in economic growth starting in the 1970s, stock market returns increased, with a notable rebound from -0.2% in 1983 to 17.2% in 1989 [2] - The rise in corporate profits during the transition phase was driven by industry restructuring and increased concentration in high-end manufacturing sectors such as precision instruments, automotive, and electrical machinery [2] Impact of Economic Conditions on Stock Returns - Following the real estate bubble burst in the early 1990s, Japan's stock market returns fell to 1.3% by 2018, although still above the 1% economic growth rate [3] - The Bank of Japan's stock purchases and subsequent quantitative easing measures supported stock market returns post-2002 [3] - Between 1971 and 1990, there was a positive correlation between government bond yields and stock returns, influenced by capital control relaxation and declining savings rates, while post-1991, the relationship reversed due to declining economic growth and worsening corporate profits [3]

Group 1 - In the first quarter of 2025, household deposits surged by 9.22 trillion yuan, with an average increase of over 6,000 yuan per person, marking a historical high for the same period [1] - The primary reasons for the increase in household savings include the need to prepare for unexpected events such as unemployment and illness, as well as concerns over the risks associated with stock markets, funds, and bank wealth management products [1] Group 2 - Starting from 2024, state-owned banks have continuously lowered deposit interest rates, with the one-year fixed deposit rate dropping from 2.25% to 1.55%, resulting in a decrease of 700 yuan in interest income for depositors [5] - The reduction in deposit rates is aimed at encouraging depositors to invest and consume, stimulating economic growth, and reducing the financing costs for society [5] Group 3 - There is an increasing risk of bankruptcy or dissolution among small and medium-sized banks, with 195 such banks announcing dissolution in 2024 alone [8] - Depositors are advised to diversify their savings across multiple banks, keeping deposits below 500,000 yuan per bank to ensure safety in case of bank failures [8] Group 4 - To avoid liquidity issues, depositors are recommended to stagger their fixed deposits into different terms (1 year, 2 years, and 3 years) to maintain access to funds while still benefiting from higher interest rates [11] Group 5 - Preparations for potential asset bubbles bursting in real estate and stock markets are advised, particularly in major cities where housing prices are significantly high relative to income [14] - The current high price-to-earnings ratios of newly listed stocks indicate a potential bubble, with many stocks experiencing declines post-listing [14]