作为"十五五"开局之年，2026年能否创造良好开局将深 刻影响着未来五年的宏观经济增长走势。其中，值得关注 的一个焦点便是GDP增速目标几何。 作者： 田进 封图：图虫创意 "十四五"时期，中国GDP总量接连跨越110万亿元、120万亿元、130万亿元三个大台阶，2020— 2024年的年均实际增速为5.5%，远高于同期全世界3.9%的年均增速。中国2025年前三季度GDP增 速达5.2%，全年增速大概率在5%及以上。 作为"十五五"开局之年，2026年能否创造良好开局将深刻影响着未来五年的宏观经济增长走势。 其中，值得关注的一个焦点便是GDP增速目标几何。 被网络烂梗包围的小学生 因为发展中的问题与向好的趋势交织，市场对于中国经济2026年的增速存在不同看法。此前，多 位宏观经济专家预估2026年中国经济增速目标可能会设定在4.5%至5%之间。在实际增速方面，近 期，西部证券、中泰国际、中信建投预计2026年中国GDP增速仍可维持在5%左右；高盛中国研究 团队的预测值为4.8%，野村发布的全球宏观经济展望则预计明年中国GDP增速为4.3%，其中上半 年、下半年增速分别为4.1%、4.5%。 近几年，就业尤其 ...

谋篇布局"十五五"·热点问答 未来十年我国GDP 年均增速要达到多少? "十五五"规划建议中明确"十五五"时 期经济社会发展的主要目标,要求"经济 增长保持在合理区间"，并再次明确到 2035年"人均国内生产总值达到中等发达 国家水平"。 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 按照到2035年人均GDP达到2万美元以 上、比2020年翻一番(2020年不变价)的 远景目标倒算,考虑总人口预计到2035 年将年均减少0.20%左右，"十五五"和 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请 读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

Core Points - The "14th Five-Year Plan" suggests that by 2035, China's per capita GDP should reach the level of middle-developed countries [2] - There is no clear international definition for middle-developed countries, but it is generally accepted that per capita GDP should exceed the threshold of developed countries (over $20,000) and double the per capita GDP from 2020 by 2035 [2] Summary by Categories - **Economic Goals** - The target for per capita GDP by 2035 is to achieve a level comparable to that of middle-developed countries [2] - The plan emphasizes the need for per capita GDP to exceed $20,000 and to double from 2020 levels by 2035 [2]

Core Points - The article discusses China's goal to achieve a significant leap in economic, technological, defense, and overall national strength by 2035, with a specific focus on reaching a per capita GDP level comparable to that of moderately developed countries [2][4]. Group 1: Economic Goals - By 2035, China's per capita GDP is expected to exceed $20,000, effectively doubling the 2020 figure of $10,632 [3][5]. - The National Bureau of Statistics projects that per capita GDP will rise from $10,632 in 2020 to $13,445 in 2024, indicating a steady growth trajectory towards the 2035 target [3]. Group 2: Strategic Framework - The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China outlined a two-phase strategy for achieving the second centenary goal, emphasizing the importance of reaching a per capita GDP level indicative of modernization [4]. - The 20th National Congress further clarified the overall development goals for 2035, with a strong emphasis on economic and technological advancements [4]. Group 3: Feasibility and Conditions - The article asserts that China has the conditions and capabilities to achieve the per capita GDP target, requiring an average annual GDP growth rate of 4.17% during the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans [6]. - The focus on high-quality development, reform, and innovation is highlighted as essential for overcoming obstacles to growth and realizing the GDP goals by 2035 [6].

新华社北京10月28日电 10月28日发布的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的 建议》提出：到2035年"人均国内生产总值达到中等发达国家水平"。 国务院发展研究中心宏观经济研究部第二研究室主任李承健认为，在未来发展不确定难预料因素增多的 情况下，需要坚持稳中求进工作总基调，实施积极有效的宏观调控，加快发展新质生产力，强化就业优 先政策，统筹利用好国内国际两个市场两种资源，促进主要经济指标运行在合理区间。 "要着力推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，充分释放经济增长潜力，努力从中等收入国家向 中等发达国家水平迈进。"中央财办分管日常工作的副主任韩文秀说。（记者王雨萧） "实现这一目标，意味着我国人均GDP将在现有基础上再迈上一个新台阶，届时我国经济实力、科技实 力、国防实力、综合国力和国际影响力将大幅跃升。这也要求'十五五'时期经济发展保持适当速 度。"国家发展改革委经济研究所副所长郭丽岩说。 郭丽岩表示，我国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大，长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有变，中 国特色社会主义制度优势、超大规模市场优势、完整产业体系优势、丰富人才资源优势更加彰显，这些 都是实现这 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China has proposed that by 2035, the per capita GDP will reach the level of moderately developed countries, indicating a significant advancement in China's economic strength and international influence [1]. Group 1: Economic Goals - By 2024, China's per capita GDP is expected to rise from $10,632 in 2020 to $13,445, maintaining a position among upper-middle-income countries [1]. - Achieving the 2035 goal will require sustained economic development at an appropriate pace during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1]. Group 2: Economic Foundations - China's economic foundation is described as stable, with numerous advantages, strong resilience, and significant potential, which are essential for achieving the proposed goals [1]. - The advantages include the socialist system, a large market, a complete industrial system, and abundant talent resources, which provide confidence in reaching the economic targets [1]. Group 3: Policy Recommendations - In light of increasing uncertainties in future development, it is essential to adhere to a stable yet progressive work guideline and implement effective macroeconomic controls [2]. - The focus should be on enhancing the quality of economic growth and achieving reasonable quantitative growth, facilitating the transition from an upper-middle-income to a moderately developed country [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the goal of achieving a per capita GDP that reaches the level of moderately developed countries by 2035, as outlined in the 15th Five-Year Plan proposal [1] - During the 14th Five-Year period, China's per capita GDP is projected to increase from $10,632 in 2020 to $13,445 in 2024, maintaining a position among upper-middle-income countries [1] - Achieving the stated goal will significantly enhance China's economic, technological, defense, and overall national strength, requiring sustained economic growth during the 15th Five-Year period [1] Group 2 - The need for a stable yet progressive approach in macroeconomic management is highlighted, with an emphasis on effective macro-control and the acceleration of new productive forces [2] - The focus is on promoting qualitative improvements and reasonable quantitative growth in the economy, aiming to transition from an upper-middle-income to a moderately developed country status [2]

新华社北京10月28日电（记者王雨萧）10月28日发布的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五 个五年规划的建议》提出：到2035年"人均国内生产总值达到中等发达国家水平"。 国务院发展研究中心宏观经济研究部第二研究室主任李承健认为，在未来发展不确定难预料因素增多的 情况下，需要坚持稳中求进工作总基调，实施积极有效的宏观调控，加快发展新质生产力，强化就业优 先政策，统筹利用好国内国际两个市场两种资源，促进主要经济指标运行在合理区间。 "要着力推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，充分释放经济增长潜力，努力从中等收入国家向 中等发达国家水平迈进。"中央财办分管日常工作的副主任韩文秀说。 "实现这一目标，意味着我国人均GDP将在现有基础上再迈上一个新台阶，届时我国经济实力、科技实 力、国防实力、综合国力和国际影响力将大幅跃升。这也要求'十五五'时期经济发展保持适当速 度。"国家发展改革委经济研究所副所长郭丽岩说。 郭丽岩表示，我国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大，长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有变，中 国特色社会主义制度优势、超大规模市场优势、完整产业体系优势、丰富人才资源优势更加彰显，这些 都是实现这一 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's economic growth rate continues to lead among major global economies, with GDP expected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan this year, surpassing previous milestones of 110 trillion, 120 trillion, and 130 trillion yuan, while per capita GDP exceeds the world average [1] Economic Performance - The expected GDP for this year is around 140 trillion yuan, indicating a strong and consistent growth trajectory [1] - China has successfully crossed significant GDP thresholds of 110 trillion, 120 trillion, and 130 trillion yuan [1] - Per capita GDP in China is now above the global average, highlighting improvements in living standards [1] Global Economic Role - China remains a major source of economic growth and an important engine for the global economy [1]