Group 1 - The key factor driving the current market rally is the recovery of raw material prices, which has led to expectations of macroeconomic recovery from deflation [1] - The market is still in an upward trend, and the lack of widespread recognition of this trend suggests continued volatility [1] - The certainty of commodity prices hitting a bottom indicates a long-term improvement in expectations, despite short-term fluctuations [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are certain, with a low probability of changing direction, supporting long-term confidence in the U.S. capital markets [2] - The technological revolution brought by artificial intelligence and other new technologies is a certain factor that may become significant as market expectations improve [2] - The IMF has revised its global economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, indicating a positive outlook for the global economy [2] Group 3 - The conclusion for August is that multiple market trends are expected to remain positive [2]

Core Insights - The report highlights that despite the impact of US tariff policies, the economic data for April 2025 shows stability with a slight decline in growth rates, particularly in manufacturing and infrastructure investments, which remain at relatively high levels [2] - Retail sales in April 2025 reached 3.72 trillion yuan, growing by 5.1% year-on-year, with significant growth in gold and jewelry sales at 25.3% due to low base effects and high demand for investment preservation [4] Macro Analysis - The economic performance in April 2025 reflects a stable growth trajectory, with consumer spending on services and the "old-for-new" policy positively influencing sales [2] - Manufacturing and infrastructure investment growth rates have slightly decreased but are still considered high, indicating the effectiveness of previous policies [2] Retail Sector Insights - The total retail sales for the first four months of 2025 amounted to 16.18 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [4] - Categories such as sports entertainment, home appliances, and cultural office supplies maintained double-digit growth rates, indicating robust consumer demand in these segments [4]