（原标题：GCC预测：到2027年经济增速将加快至4.3%） Arab News 11月9日报道，海湾合作委员会统计中心（GCC-Stat）报告称，2024年GCC实际GDP增 长1.9%，非油经济增长4.4%，非油经济增加值达1.29万亿美元。2024年运输与仓储、农渔业与住宿服务 为非油经济增长主导，建筑、贸易与金融也表现良好。2025年第一季度GCC合计GDP为5881亿美元， 非油占比升至73.2%。GCC-Stat预计2027年GCC经济增速将达4.3%，在旅游、物流、制造与可再生能源 项目带动下，非油经济将达5.2%。 ...

（文章来源：新华财经） NESDC主席表示，预计随着消费和旅游回升，当前季度经济应会恢复增长，从而避免技术性衰退。"第 三季度的主要问题是经济信心。当时政治波动明显，加上与柬埔寨的冲突，从而造成该问题。" 新华财经北京11月17日电官方数据显示，泰国第三季度经济增速降至四年来最慢。在政治不确定性和边 境冲突期间，旅游和制造业走弱成为主要拖累。 泰国国家经济社会发展委员会（NESDC）周一公布，第三季度GDP同比增长1.2%，低于第二季度的 2.8%，也不及路透调查所预期的1.6%。按季环比计算，泰国经济经季节性因素调整后萎缩0.6%，为近 三年来首次出现下滑。 ...

多空交织驱动不显，或将维持震荡运行 研究报告 橡胶周报 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 的免责声明。 摘要： 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 17 日星期一 上周国内天然橡胶期货主力合约震荡偏强，总体小幅上涨。 展望后市，宏观方面，上周三美政府结束史上最长"停摆"， 提振市场情绪；国内公布 10 月经济"成绩单"，显示经济增速 有所放缓。从基本面来看，供给方面，橡胶成本端存在支撑。 10 月天然橡胶进口数量同比小幅增加，1-10 月，中国累计进口 天然及合成橡胶增幅明显。需求方面，上周轮胎企业开工率较 上周均微幅上升。上周全钢胎、半钢胎延续累库累库。终端车 市方面，终端乘用车 10 月销量同环比下滑，需求端利多驱动不 足。前 9 个月中国橡胶轮胎出口量累计同比小幅增长。随着后 续天气转冷，需求存在转弱预期。库存方面，上周上期所库存 较上周小幅下降；中国天然橡胶社会库存和青岛总库存环比均 小幅回升，其中青岛一般贸易库存累库幅度较大。 总体来看， ...

Group 1 - The A500 index components showed mixed performance, with Huashang City A leading the gains at 10.15%, followed by Samsung Medical at 10.02%, and Fangda Carbon at 9.98% [1] - The A500 ETF fund's latest price is 1.18 yuan, with a turnover rate of 6.56% and a trading volume of 1.289 billion yuan [1] - The A500 ETF fund has seen a net inflow of 202 million yuan recently, indicating strong investor interest [1] Group 2 - According to Zhongyin Securities, the market is expected to maintain a震荡上行趋势, with a focus on preparing for year-end performance [2] - The A500 index consists of 500 securities selected from various industries, reflecting the overall performance of the most representative listed companies [2] - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the A500 index accounted for 19.36% of the total index, including major companies like Ningde Times and Kweichow Moutai [2]

Group 1 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" outlines seven major development goals for China's economic and social development, including high-quality development and technological self-reliance [2][3] - The average annual GDP growth rate is projected to be around 4.8% in real terms and at least 5% in nominal terms during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [1][4] - The plan emphasizes the need to maintain economic growth within a reasonable range to ensure progress towards modernization and improve living standards [2][5] Group 2 - The plan aims to achieve significant improvements in high-quality development, with a focus on enhancing the level of technological self-reliance and deepening reforms [2][6] - The potential GDP growth rate is estimated to be between 4.5% and 5.3%, with optimistic scenarios suggesting it could rise to between 5.1% and 5.8% [3][4] - The plan highlights the importance of fostering new productive forces and transitioning to an innovation-driven growth model, particularly in digital and green industries [5][6] Group 3 - The plan anticipates the creation of approximately 10 trillion yuan in new market space over the next five years, driven by advancements in various sectors such as quantum technology and advanced manufacturing [6] - The emphasis on consumer spending is expected to lead to quantifiable targets for consumption promotion [6] - The plan aims to leverage China's institutional advantages, large market size, complete industrial system, and rich talent resources to achieve high-quality development [6]

Core Viewpoint - The economic growth rates of the southwestern provinces of China, including Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, and Chongqing, have declined significantly in recent years, with all four provinces experiencing growth rates below the national average in 2023 and 2024 [4][5][6]. Economic Performance - In the first three quarters of this year, the GDP of Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, and Chongqing was reported at 23,518.47 billion, 17,352.04 billion, 49,322.2 billion, and 24,449.36 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.3%, 4.9%, 5.5%, and 5.3% [3][5]. - Guizhou's GDP growth has fallen below the national average, with a reported growth of 4.9% in the first three quarters, down from previous years [5][6]. - Yunnan's growth rate has also declined, with a 2023 growth of 4.4%, below the national level of 5.2% [6]. Investment Trends - Investment growth has been a significant factor in the economic slowdown of the southwestern provinces, with fixed asset investment in Guizhou showing a downward trend from 28.0% in 2013 to -5.7% in 2024 [8][9]. - Yunnan has also faced a decline in fixed asset investment, with growth rates of 7.5%, -10.6%, and -7.7% from 2022 to 2024, largely due to a drop in real estate development investment [8][9]. Industry Challenges - Traditional pillar industries in the region, such as alcohol, coal, electricity, and tobacco, are facing challenges, particularly in Guizhou where the liquor industry is undergoing significant adjustments [9]. - In Yunnan, while some traditional industries are seeing slight growth, the overall contribution to industrial growth remains low, with the tobacco industry growing by only 1.0% [9].

Economic Overview - The GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 4.8% compared to Q2 2025, with retail sales growth slowing to 3% and fixed asset investment entering negative growth[3] - The real estate investment growth rate has hit a historical low, with only export growth remaining relatively stable on the demand side[3] Policy Response - Since September, counter-cyclical adjustment policies have been intensified, with the effectiveness of these policies observable through recent high-frequency data[3] - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session report notably analyzed the current economic situation, indicating a high level of concern from decision-makers regarding short-term economic trends[3] Real Estate Market - Following the relaxation of purchase restrictions in first-tier cities, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities has returned to over 2 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to around -20%[3] - Sales improvements have been noted across first, second, and third-tier cities[3] Production and Supply - The overall supply-side situation improved in October, with indicators such as operating rates, capacity utilization, and production showing month-on-month improvements[3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown improvements both year-on-year and month-on-month, leading to a notable increase in corporate profit growth rates[3] Price Trends - Recent price trends indicate a weakening, particularly in pork prices, which may slow the recovery rate of nominal GDP growth[3] - The average price of cement in East China rose to 436 RMB/ton, while in Southwest China, it fell to 493 RMB/ton, reflecting regional price disparities[3] Risks - Potential risks include geopolitical tensions, domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, and global recession impacts along with unexpected monetary policy shifts from major economies[3]

Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a resilient economic growth of 4.5% for the Asia-Pacific region in 2025, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the April forecast [1] - The forecast for mainland China's economic growth in 2025 is set at 4.8%, which is 0.8 percentage points higher than the previous prediction [1] Economic Trends - The report highlights a significant change in the global landscape due to extensive tariff increases by the United States in 2025, impacting trade dynamics in the Asia-Pacific region [1] - The necessity for policies that promote trade openness and foreign direct investment, along with reforms to enhance competitiveness, is emphasized as crucial for maintaining trade as an engine of economic growth [1] Investment and Capital Allocation - The report indicates that since the global financial crisis, there has been a slowdown in economic growth and an intensification of global trade fragmentation, underscoring the need for Asia-Pacific countries to strengthen domestic economic growth drivers [1] - High investment rates in the region have historically relied on a favorable financial structure for capital-intensive growth, but recent trends show increasing capital misallocation and declining investment returns [1] - Issues such as inefficient financial intermediation and rising debt rollover phenomena are contributing to these trends, necessitating policy measures to broaden financing channels for a wider range of enterprises and support timely restructuring of unsustainable debt [1]

Core Viewpoint - China's economic growth rate continues to lead among major global economies, with GDP expected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan this year, surpassing previous milestones of 110 trillion, 120 trillion, and 130 trillion yuan, while per capita GDP exceeds the world average [1] Economic Performance - The expected GDP for this year is around 140 trillion yuan, indicating a strong and consistent growth trajectory [1] - China has successfully crossed significant GDP thresholds of 110 trillion, 120 trillion, and 130 trillion yuan [1] - Per capita GDP in China is now above the global average, highlighting improvements in living standards [1] Global Economic Role - China remains a major source of economic growth and an important engine for the global economy [1]

Economic Growth Analysis - The overall economic growth in China has shown a slowdown in Q3, with GDP growth at 4.8%, down from 5.2% in the first three quarters [2][3] - Nominal GDP growth for Q3 was 3.7%, with a cumulative nominal GDP growth of 4.1% for the first three quarters [2] Factors Contributing to Slowdown - The slowdown is attributed to three main factors: reduced policy effectiveness, diminishing internal growth momentum, and weak consumer sentiment [3][4] - Macro policies were strong in the first half of the year but weakened in the second half, impacting economic support [3] - The effectiveness of certain policies, such as the consumption upgrade program, has diminished, leading to a decline in retail sales growth [3][4] Positive Economic Indicators - Despite the slowdown, there are positive signs such as improved industrial capacity utilization and a rebound in PPI [6][7] - Exports have remained resilient, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3% in September, supported by diversified markets and competitive products [7] - High-tech industries have shown robust growth, with a 9.6% increase in value-added output in the first three quarters [8] September Economic Performance - In September, exports and industrial production saw a rebound, while consumer spending and investment continued to decline [9][10] - Retail sales and catering revenue showed a decrease, indicating ongoing consumer weakness [10] - Real estate sales saw a slight improvement due to new policies in major cities, but overall investment remains low [11] Future Economic Outlook - The economic performance in Q4 will depend on the introduction of new policies, with potential GDP growth forecasted between 4.6% and 4.8% [13] - The need for new incremental policies is emphasized to support economic recovery [14][19] Recommendations for Policy Adjustments - Suggestions include increasing fiscal support, optimizing debt management, and enhancing monetary policy to stimulate economic activity [15][16] - A comprehensive approach to real estate policy is recommended to stabilize the market and support local governments [17][18] - Consumer-oriented policies should be developed to boost spending and improve income distribution [19][20]