2025.08. 19 本文字数：1810，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 全国狭义财政收入增速由负转正，折射经济稳中向好。 8月19日，财政部公布今年前7个月财政收支情况。1-7月，全国一般公共预算收入135839亿元，同 比增长0.1%。 今年以来全国一般公共预算收入增速出现下滑，不过，降幅逐步缩窄。随着7月份这一收入增幅 （2.6%）创下年内新高，带动全国一般公共预算收入累计增速首次实现由负转正，折射了经济运行 总体平稳。 国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖近日公开表示，受多重因素影响，7月份部分经济指标有所波动，但主 要指标累计增速保持总体平稳，就业物价总体稳定，经济平稳运行态势没有改变。 全国一般公共预算收入由税收收入和非税收入组成，其中又以税收为主，税收也被称为"经济晴雨 表"。 根据财政部数据， 今年前7个月，全国税收收入110933亿元，同比下降0.3%，这一降幅持续缩窄。 其中7月份，全国税收收入18018亿元，同比增长5%，月度增幅自4月份由负转正后持续回升。 近几个月税收收入保持增长，折射经济运行向好。不过总体来看税收收入累计增速依然低于经济增速 （上半年经济增速为5.3%）。 ...

美国纽约联储主席威廉姆斯：预计经济增速在2026年反弹。 预计经济增速今年放缓至约1%。 劳动力市场依旧稳健。（华尔街日报） ...

Economic Performance - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q2 was reported at 3.0%, following a contraction of 0.5% in the previous quarter, exceeding the expected 2.6%[7] - However, the overall economic growth rate is projected to decline to 1.2% in the first half of 2025, significantly lower than the second half of 2024[7] - The domestic private final purchases (PDFP) growth has weakened, with Q1 revised down to 1.9% and Q2 at only 1.2%, indicating a decline in internal economic momentum[13] Federal Reserve Policy - Jerome Powell is characterized as a hawkish figure, prioritizing inflation risks over full employment, advocating for tighter monetary policy to suppress inflation[3] - The recent FOMC meeting saw two dissenting votes, marking a notable increase in opposition during Powell's tenure, reflecting the end of a "great moderation" era[5] - The removal of the phrase "uncertainty further reduced" from the Fed's statements suggests ongoing concerns about policy uncertainty, particularly related to Trump's administration[6] Risks and Challenges - Increased uncertainty in the Middle East could significantly raise oil prices, leading to higher inflation in the U.S. and complicating the Fed's rate-cutting decisions[4] - Trump's domestic policies may face greater resistance, potentially leading to increased fiscal stimulus and unexpected easing from the Fed[4] - Heightened volatility in U.S. financial markets could accelerate capital outflows and a decline in the dollar, risking a deeper recession[4]

英国5月GDP年率录得0.7%，为2024年6月以来最小经济增速。英国5月工业产出月率录得-0.9%，为2024 年4月以来最大降幅。 ...

Group 1 - Emperor International has incurred a significant debt of HKD 16.6 billion, with loans now overdue [1] - The company reported a substantial loss exceeding HKD 4 billion last year [1] - Emperor International operates across multiple sectors including entertainment, real estate, jewelry, finance, and hospitality, with seven listed companies on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1] Group 2 - China's average economic growth rate from 2021 to 2024 is projected to reach 5.5% [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission anticipates that China's economic increment over five years will exceed CNY 35 trillion, contributing around 30% to global economic growth annually [2] - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year, reversing a previous decline [2] Group 3 - The Chinese automotive market saw retail sales of 10.9 million passenger vehicles in the first half of the year, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.8% [4] - New energy vehicles accounted for 5.468 million units sold, driving significant growth in the market [4] Group 4 - The National Development Bank signed a CNY 2.1 billion loan agreement with the Southern African Development Bank to support infrastructure and other projects in Africa [6] - Several banks have reduced their operating loan interest rates to 3% or below, focusing on small and micro enterprises [7]

虽然关税收入能在一定程度上缓解财政压力，但公共债务占GDP的比例仍预计将在2034年前后攀升至 119%。大多数减税措施不太可能显著提振消费，而最大的支出削减将集中在医疗保障和食品补助领 域。鉴于该预算案对经济增长的实际拉动作用有限，Lombard Odier维持此前对美国经济增速的预测： 2025年增长1.3%，2026年增长1.4%。 【白银技术面分析】 尽管美国政府称其财政计划为"一项宏大而美丽的法案"，但Lombard Odier却难以从中看到任何值得乐 观的地方。该机构认为，这项预算案在宏观经济层面几乎没有提振作用，反而可能进一步恶化财政前 景。战略分析师Filippo Pallotti指出，该法案预计将在未来十年内使联邦赤字扩大约4万亿美元；如果减 税措施被永久化，赤字规模甚至可能更高。 周二（7月8日）欧市盘中，白银走势偏弱运行，截至发稿报36.70美元/盎司，跌幅0.11%。特朗普8月1 日的关税实施以及潜在的惩罚性关税带来了政策不确定性，但强劲的经济数据持续削弱贵金属的避险溢 价。 【要闻聚焦】 白银的技术面走势表明，交易者正等待更深幅度的回调后再重新入场。尽管中期上升趋势在关键均线上 方保 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market has shifted from panic to optimism over the past three months, but some strategists warn that the market may be overly optimistic given the uncertainties ahead [2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Investors are feeling reassured by the framework agreement between the U.S. and China, leading to a generally optimistic market outlook regarding the continuation of tariff suspension measures [2]. - The S&P 500 index experienced a significant drop of nearly 19% from its record high in February to the lows in April, but rebounded sharply after the announcement of tariff suspensions [2]. - The 50-day rebound since the April 8 low has been 19.8%, marking it as the ninth largest increase for the S&P 500 since 1950, indicating potential for further gains in the coming months [3][4]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Debt Concerns - The recent fiscal policy changes, including a projected increase of $3.4 trillion in government debt over the next decade, have raised concerns about the sustainability of economic growth and public debt levels [3]. - Analysts are questioning whether tariff revenues, which amounted to $15.6 billion in April alone, will significantly contribute to economic growth and help mitigate public debt increases over the next ten years [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Sector Focus - Some strategists suggest that the current stock market gains may have outpaced the underlying fundamentals, leading to considerations for reducing exposure in overvalued sectors, particularly small-cap stocks, industrials, and consumer discretionary [4]. - Investment recommendations include holding cash for potential market corrections or reallocating to sectors perceived as more attractive, such as technology, financials, energy, utilities, and communication services [4].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and Bank of France Governor Villeroy has expressed concerns regarding the slow economic growth in France [1] Economic Growth - Villeroy highlighted that the economic growth rate in France is currently too slow, indicating a need for improvement in economic performance [1]

Group 1 - Vietnam's economy is expected to grow faster in the second quarter, driven by manufacturing and trade, with a year-on-year growth of 7.67% [1] - This estimate will bring the economic growth rate for the first half of the year to approximately 7.31%, compared to a growth rate of 6.93% in the first three months [1] - Manufacturing in Vietnam grew by 10% in the first half of the year, and exports increased by 14.4%, resulting in a trade surplus of 7.63 billion USD [1]

Core Insights - Thailand's economic growth in May was slightly lower than in April [1] Economic Performance - The economic growth rate for May was reported to be below the rate observed in April [1]