国际货币基金组织（IMF）7月29日发布《世界经济展望报告》，将2025年中国经济增速预期从4%大幅 上调至4.8%，创2019年以来最大单次上调幅度。 这一调整基于中国上半年经济超预期表现——GDP同比增长5.3%，内需、出口和创新三大引擎同步发 力。经济韧性增强为人民币汇率注入稳定性，也为中国留学生跨境学费汇款带来新的决策窗口。 一、经济预期上调如何影响人民币汇率？ 1. 人民币双向波动但韧性凸显 IMF上调预期后，人民币汇率呈现"稳中有升"态势：7月24日人民币兑美元中间价报7.1486元，创九个月 新高，较年初累计升值479个基点；在岸与离岸汇率价差收窄至零，显示市场预期趋同。 以美国留学为例：若学费为5万美元，按7月24日中间价7.14计算，需支付35.7万元人民币；若汇率升至 7.0（人民币升值2%），成本可减少约1万元。反之，若汇率贬值至7.3，成本将增加8000元。当前汇率 处于近半年相对合理区间，为留学生家庭提供了"择机换汇"的操作空间。 尽管美联储9月降息预期（概率超80%）可能压制美元走势，但中国经济基本面（如上半年出口增长 5.9%、消费零售两位数增长）为人民币提供支撑，短期大幅贬值风 ...

Economic Growth Outlook - Several international investment banks, including Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley, have raised their economic growth forecasts for China in the second half of the year, anticipating a long-term strengthening of the RMB exchange rate [1][3] - Deutsche Bank's chief economist for China, Xu Yi, noted that the combination of loose monetary policy and accelerated fiscal policy is expected to support the economy, with a 0.2 percentage point increase in the 2025 economic growth forecast [3] - Morgan Stanley also revised its growth expectations for the next two years, citing reduced urgency for new policies due to easing external shocks, with a focus on stabilizing the economy and emphasizing technological innovation [3] Currency Exchange Rate Predictions - The RMB has appreciated by 2% against the USD this year, but has depreciated by approximately 5% against a trade-weighted basket of currencies [4] - Deutsche Bank predicts that the RMB/USD exchange rate will rise to 7.0 by the end of 2025 and further to 6.7 by the end of 2026, supported by long-term trade competitiveness [4] - Morgan Stanley expects a moderate appreciation of the RMB against the USD, attributing this to a weakening of the dollar's safe-haven status and increased demand for hedging against currency risk [4] Monetary Policy Insights - Deutsche Bank anticipates that the People's Bank of China will reduce the frequency of interest rate cuts, opting instead for liquidity support through reserve requirement ratio cuts and loan facilities, projecting a policy rate of 1.3% by the end of 2025 [4] - Morgan Stanley forecasts that the decision-makers will utilize existing policy space and quasi-fiscal tools to stimulate the economy, potentially introducing fiscal stimulus of 500 billion to 1 trillion RMB, along with further interest rate cuts of 15-20 basis points and a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut [4]

国际投行摩根士丹利日前发布了中国经济及股市的年中展望报告。 摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强在最新报告中称，贸易摩擦暂缓，摩根士丹利上调了今年中国GDP预期， 但地产、消费等内需挑战仍在，新增政策支持或许温和克制。 具体来看，摩根士丹利将今明两年的GDP增速预测分别从此前的4.2%/4.0%上调至4.5%/4.2%。今年四季度GDP 同比增速将落在4.0%，高于此前预测的3.7%。在摩根士丹利新的基准情形下，美国今年对华关税的增幅将在 今明两年保持在当前30%的水平。但外部冲击的减少，也降低了增量政策出台的紧迫性。现行的政策框架旨在 为经济托底，同时渐进地去解决债务和经济失衡等结构性压力。 报告指出，预计二三季度决策层将利用好现有政策空间以及准财政工具来提振经济。后续随着关税以及抢出口 退坡对经济的影响显现，政府或将额外出台0.5万亿—1万亿人民币的财政刺激来支持城市更新等基建投资。另 外，央行或将进一步降息15～20个基点以及降准50个基点。基于大摩全球外汇团队的弱美元预期，预计今年年 底前人民币将对美元小幅升值，达到7.15，但对一篮子货币将温和贬值。 关税及国内政策方向是两个主要风险点。乐观情形下，摩根 ...