作为"十五五"开局之年，2026年能否创造良好开局将深 刻影响着未来五年的宏观经济增长走势。其中，值得关注 的一个焦点便是GDP增速目标几何。 作者： 田进 封图：图虫创意 "十四五"时期，中国GDP总量接连跨越110万亿元、120万亿元、130万亿元三个大台阶，2020— 2024年的年均实际增速为5.5%，远高于同期全世界3.9%的年均增速。中国2025年前三季度GDP增 速达5.2%，全年增速大概率在5%及以上。 作为"十五五"开局之年，2026年能否创造良好开局将深刻影响着未来五年的宏观经济增长走势。 其中，值得关注的一个焦点便是GDP增速目标几何。 被网络烂梗包围的小学生 因为发展中的问题与向好的趋势交织，市场对于中国经济2026年的增速存在不同看法。此前，多 位宏观经济专家预估2026年中国经济增速目标可能会设定在4.5%至5%之间。在实际增速方面，近 期，西部证券、中泰国际、中信建投预计2026年中国GDP增速仍可维持在5%左右；高盛中国研究 团队的预测值为4.8%，野村发布的全球宏观经济展望则预计明年中国GDP增速为4.3%，其中上半 年、下半年增速分别为4.1%、4.5%。 近几年，就业尤其 ...

北京商报讯（记者 岳品瑜 董晗萱）12月10日，据新华社，国际货币基金组织（IMF）在京表示，尽管 面临多重冲击，中国经济仍展现出显著韧性。IMF预计2025年中国经济增速将达5%，较今年10月发布 的《世界经济展望报告》上调0.2个百分点。 ...

【内容摘要】12月4日，央行公开市场继续净回笼，但资金面延续宽松，主要回购利率低位波动；债市延续下跌，主要期限利率债收益率全线上行；万科多 只债券继续下跌；碧桂园发行强制性可转债等境外债重组相关议案获股东大会通过；新世界发展公布交换要约最终结果，预计可削债近11.7亿美元；鹏博士 公告下属子公司未能如期支付美元债本息，债券余额约2.2亿美元；转债市场主要指数延续下行，个券多数下跌；海外方面，主要期限美债收益率全线上 行，除英国外，主要欧洲经济体10年期国债收益率普遍上行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【中国人民银行等量续做3个月期买断式逆回购】12月4日，中国人民银行发布公开市场买断式逆回购招标公告。公告显示，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，12 月5日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展10000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月（91天）。由于本月有10000亿元3个月 期买断式逆回购到期，因此在开展上述操作后，3个月期买断式逆回购将实现等量续做。 【潘功胜：不断增强央行政策利率的作用，收窄短期利率走廊的宽度】央行行长潘功胜在人民日报发表署名文章《构建科学稳健的货币政策体系和覆盖全面 的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The discussion focuses on China's high-quality development and high-level opening-up post the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session, emphasizing confidence and strategic determination for future growth [1] Group 1: Economic Development - By 2035, China aims for its per capita GDP to reach the level of moderately developed countries, reflecting its confidence in future development [1] - The 14th Five-Year Plan will see China positively impacting global development through trade, investment, technology cooperation, and green development [1] Group 2: Trade and Investment - China plans to innovate in trade, focusing on digital and green trade to enhance trade quality [1] - The scale advantages of China's green industries, particularly in photovoltaic, wind power, and power batteries, will significantly reduce global green transition costs [1] Group 3: Technology and Finance - The discussion included topics on the intersection of technology and finance, China's aspirations in aerospace, and the country's economic growth rate [1]

Group 1 - U.S. stock indices rose over 1%, with Apple reaching a historical high, and the Chinese concept index increasing by 2.39% [1] - Semiconductor company SMIC saw a reduction in southbound capital for eight consecutive days, totaling 9.4 billion HKD [1] - CATL reported a net profit of 18.549 billion CNY for Q3, representing a year-on-year growth of 41.21% [1][2] - Junsheng Electronics' subsidiary secured a new automotive smart electrification project, with an estimated total order value of approximately 5 billion CNY [2] Group 2 - The unemployment rate in Hong Kong rose to 3.9%, with 155,600 individuals unemployed [2]

Economic Outlook - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised China's economic growth forecast for 2025 from 4% to 4.8%, marking the largest single upward adjustment since 2019, driven by stronger-than-expected performance in the first half of the year with a GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year [1] - The robust economic performance is attributed to the simultaneous strengthening of domestic demand, exports, and innovation, enhancing economic resilience and providing stability to the Renminbi exchange rate [1] Impact on Renminbi Exchange Rate - Following the IMF's forecast adjustment, the Renminbi has shown a "stable yet rising" trend, with the exchange rate against the US dollar reaching 7.1486 on July 24, a nine-month high, reflecting a cumulative appreciation of 479 basis points since the beginning of the year [2] - The narrowing of the onshore and offshore exchange rate spread to zero indicates converging market expectations, while the fundamentals of the Chinese economy, such as a 5.9% increase in exports and double-digit growth in retail consumption, support the Renminbi [2] Tuition Cost Implications - For studying in the US, if tuition is $50,000, at the July 24 exchange rate of 7.14, the cost in Renminbi would be approximately 357,000 yuan; a 2% appreciation of the Renminbi to 7.0 would reduce costs by about 10,000 yuan, while depreciation to 7.3 would increase costs by 8,000 yuan [3] Tuition Remittance Strategies - A recommended strategy for remitting tuition fees is to exchange in batches, dividing the total amount into 3-4 parts and gradually exchanging when the rate is between 7.14 and 7.20, as historical data shows that the Renminbi often appreciates after initial declines during Federal Reserve rate cut cycles [4] - Utilizing professional cross-border remittance tools can help reduce hidden costs by ensuring low fees, transparent exchange rates, and quick transfers [5] - Monitoring key policy events, such as the Federal Reserve's meeting on September 17 and China's Q3 GDP data release in October, can provide opportunities to capitalize on expected exchange rate movements [6] Cross-Border Remittance Solutions - The Panda Speed Remittance App is designed to optimize the remittance process for students, ensuring compliance and security throughout the transaction [7] - The app offers rapid transfers without using the annual $50,000 facilitation limit, ensuring timely payments to educational institutions [8] - It provides competitive exchange rates with low fees, supporting various payment scenarios for different educational institutions, and simplifies the remittance process through a user-friendly mobile application [8]

Group 1 - The China A500 Index closed down by 0.2%, while the A100 and A50 Indices both decreased by 0.1% [1][3] - The A500 ETF from E Fund had a trading volume of 1.7 billion yuan, with net subscriptions exceeding 20 million units [1] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its forecast for China's economic growth this year by 0.8 percentage points, citing stronger-than-expected economic activity in the first half of the year and significant reductions in US-China tariffs [1] Group 2 - The IMF also adjusted its forecast for China's economic growth in 2026, increasing it by 0.2 percentage points [1] - The A500 Index consists of 500 securities with large market capitalization and good liquidity, covering 91 out of 93 sub-industries [3] - The A100 Index includes 100 representative securities with large market capitalization and good liquidity, covering 46 sub-industries [3]

Global Economic Outlook - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global economic growth rates of 3.0% and 3.1% for this year and next, respectively, an upward revision of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points from April's forecast [1] - Trade dynamics continue to dominate the global economic outlook, with some positive developments in trade negotiations supporting global economic resilience, although overall tariff levels remain historically high and the policy environment is highly uncertain [1] China Economic Growth - The IMF significantly raised its forecast for China's economic growth by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8%, reflecting stronger-than-expected economic activity in the first half of the year and lower actual tariff rates compared to April's predictions [1] Developed and Emerging Markets - Developed economies are expected to achieve a growth rate of 1.5%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from previous estimates, with the U.S. economy projected to grow by 1.9% [1] - Emerging markets and developing economies are forecasted to grow at a rate of 4.1%, an upward revision of 0.4 percentage points from earlier projections [1]

Group 1 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has significantly raised its forecast for China's economic growth this year by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8%, reflecting stronger-than-expected economic activity in the first half of the year and lower actual tariff rates compared to previous predictions [1] - The global economic growth forecasts for this year and next year have been adjusted to 3.0% and 3.1%, respectively, which is an increase of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points from the April predictions [1] - Trade conditions continue to dominate the global economic outlook, with some positive developments in trade negotiations providing support for global economic resilience, although overall tariff levels remain historically high and the policy environment is highly uncertain [1]

Economic Growth Outlook - Several international investment banks, including Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley, have raised their economic growth forecasts for China in the second half of the year, anticipating a long-term strengthening of the RMB exchange rate [1][3] - Deutsche Bank's chief economist for China, Xu Yi, noted that the combination of loose monetary policy and accelerated fiscal policy is expected to support the economy, with a 0.2 percentage point increase in the 2025 economic growth forecast [3] - Morgan Stanley also revised its growth expectations for the next two years, citing reduced urgency for new policies due to easing external shocks, with a focus on stabilizing the economy and emphasizing technological innovation [3] Currency Exchange Rate Predictions - The RMB has appreciated by 2% against the USD this year, but has depreciated by approximately 5% against a trade-weighted basket of currencies [4] - Deutsche Bank predicts that the RMB/USD exchange rate will rise to 7.0 by the end of 2025 and further to 6.7 by the end of 2026, supported by long-term trade competitiveness [4] - Morgan Stanley expects a moderate appreciation of the RMB against the USD, attributing this to a weakening of the dollar's safe-haven status and increased demand for hedging against currency risk [4] Monetary Policy Insights - Deutsche Bank anticipates that the People's Bank of China will reduce the frequency of interest rate cuts, opting instead for liquidity support through reserve requirement ratio cuts and loan facilities, projecting a policy rate of 1.3% by the end of 2025 [4] - Morgan Stanley forecasts that the decision-makers will utilize existing policy space and quasi-fiscal tools to stimulate the economy, potentially introducing fiscal stimulus of 500 billion to 1 trillion RMB, along with further interest rate cuts of 15-20 basis points and a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut [4]