1. Report Investment Rating The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum will be held from June 18 - 19 in Shanghai, focusing on topics like financial opening - up, monetary policy coordination, etc., and may release major financial policies [8]. - For Treasury bond futures, geopolitical disturbances support market recovery, with a mid - term outlook of high - level fluctuations. The bond market is expected to oscillate or rise slightly in the short - term, and it is still recommended to maintain a view of high - level oscillation in the bond market [9]. - For naphtha and LPG, near - end geopolitical conflicts drive up crude oil prices, squeezing downstream profits. There are potential risks from geopolitical situations, especially regarding the Strait of Hormuz [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures - Geopolitical disturbances support market recovery, and the market still has strong expectations for RRR cuts and interest rate cuts in Q3. The bond market is expected to oscillate or rise slightly in the short - term due to short - term geopolitical risks, with a continued flat curve [9]. - Net long positions in Treasury bond futures have increased since June, but have not exceeded previous highs. The 30Y contract has large intraday fluctuations, and short - term speculative sentiment has warmed up [9]. 3.2 Naphtha and LPG - Near - end geopolitical conflicts drive up crude oil prices, leading to a decline in the naphtha cracking center and increased losses in Asian ethylene cracking profits. The far - month demand outlook is weakening [11]. - Middle East and Russian exports are currently stable, but extreme geopolitical risks should be monitored. The volume of arbitrage goods between the East and the West will increase significantly from June to July, posing a threat to the Asian market [11]. - If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, it may cause a significant impact on the supply of naphtha and propane, leading to production cuts in downstream chemicals [11]. 3.3 Other Commodities - Gold: Geopolitical conflicts are easing, and silver is falling from a high level. Gold trend strength is 0, and silver trend strength is 0 [19][24]. - Copper: The strong spot market of LME copper supports prices. The trend strength is 0 [26][28]. - Aluminum: Oscillating strongly; Alumina: Rebounding significantly. Aluminum trend strength is 1, and Alumina trend strength is 0 [29][31]. - Zinc: Under pressure. The trend strength is - 1 [32]. - Lead: Adjusting within a short - term range. The trend strength is 0 [34][35]. - Tin: Tight current situation but weak future expectations. The trend strength is 0 [37][41]. - Nickel: Concerns about the ore end have cooled, and smelting supply has high elasticity. Stainless steel: Negative feedback leads to increased production cuts, with a supply - demand imbalance and low - level oscillation. Both trend strengths are 0 [42][45]. - Lithium carbonate: Warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing. The trend strength is 0 [46][49]. - Industrial silicon: Warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and market sentiment should be monitored. Polysilicon: Warehouse receipts have not increased, and market sentiment should be monitored. Industrial silicon trend strength is - 1, and polysilicon trend strength is 0 [50][52]. - Iron ore: Expectations are fluctuating, and it will oscillate within a range. The trend strength is 0 [53]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Affected by macro - sentiment, they will oscillate widely. Both trend strengths are 0 [54][58]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Affected by sector sentiment, they will oscillate widely. Both trend strengths are 0 [59][62]. - Coke and coking coal: Safety inspections are becoming stricter, and they will oscillate widely. Both trend strengths are 0 [63][66]. - Steam coal: Demand needs to be released, and it will oscillate widely. The trend strength is 0 [68][71]. - Logs: Oscillating widely [72].

Group 1 - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum is themed "Financial Opening and Cooperation in the Global Economic Changes and High-Quality Development" and aims to discuss financial reform and international cooperation among over 70 financial professionals from more than 10 countries and regions [3][8] - Keynote speeches will be delivered by prominent figures including the Governor of the People's Bank of China, Pan Gongsheng, and other leaders from financial regulatory bodies [1][3] - The forum will address eight major topics, including enhancing global monetary policy coordination, promoting sustainable capital market development, and improving green finance policies and standards [8][12] Group 2 - During the forum, significant financial policies are expected to be announced by central financial management departments, continuing a tradition of using the forum as a platform for major policy releases [10][9] - The Shanghai-Hong Kong International Financial Center Collaborative Development Action Plan will be signed, emphasizing the importance of collaboration between the two financial hubs to enhance national competitiveness [12][11] - Discussions will focus on how to leverage the financial advantages of both Shanghai and Hong Kong, including financial product innovation and cross-border regulatory cooperation [12][11]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum will be held in Shanghai on June 18, focusing on "Financial Opening and Cooperation in the Global Economic Landscape and High-Quality Development" to discuss financial reform, international cooperation, and governance for global economic growth [1][3] Group 1: Forum Overview - The forum is co-hosted by the People's Bank of China, the National Financial Regulatory Administration, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and the Shanghai Municipal Government, lasting for two days [1] - Key leaders from central financial management departments will deliver speeches, and several significant financial policies will be announced during the forum [1] Group 2: Agenda Highlights - The forum includes eight plenary sessions covering topics such as global economic changes, monetary policy coordination, capital market development, and the collaboration between Shanghai and Hong Kong as international financial centers [1][2] - Specialized sessions will address issues like high-quality development in the reinsurance market, international legal practices in financial cooperation, and support for hard technology enterprises [2] Group 3: Historical Context - The Lujiazui Forum has been successfully held fifteen times since 2008, becoming one of the most authoritative financial forums in China and a significant international financial platform [3]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum will be held on June 18-19 in Shanghai, focusing on "Financial Openness and Cooperation in the Global Economic Landscape and High-Quality Development" [1] Group 1: Forum Overview - The forum is co-hosted by the People's Bank of China, the National Financial Regulatory Administration, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and the Shanghai Municipal Government, with key leaders from these organizations participating [1][3] - Over 70 domestic and international guests will attend and speak at the forum, including officials from financial regulatory bodies in the UK, Hungary, Singapore, and Hong Kong, as well as leaders from major financial institutions [2][3] Group 2: Key Sessions and Topics - The forum will feature eight plenary sessions covering topics such as global economic changes, monetary policy coordination, capital market development, and the role of artificial intelligence in financial innovation [3] - Three specialized sessions will focus on reinsurance market development, international legal practices in financial cooperation, and supporting hard technology enterprises through financial collaboration [4] Group 3: Shanghai's Financial Development - Shanghai has become a leading area for financial openness in China, with 1,782 licensed financial institutions, of which about one-third are foreign [4] - The city is set to expand its financial openness with a focus on institutional reforms and establishing more financial trading mechanisms aligned with international standards [5][7] Group 4: Policy Support and Financial Infrastructure - The People's Bank of China is accelerating policy support for the construction of Shanghai as an international financial center, with a series of measures aimed at enhancing cross-border financial services [7][8] - The cross-border RMB settlement volume in Shanghai reached nearly 30 trillion yuan in 2024, accounting for 47% of the national total [9] Group 5: Capital Market Reforms - The "Science and Technology Innovation Board Eight Measures" have shown positive effects, with new IPO applications and listings for hard technology companies [11] - The market for mergers and acquisitions has become more active, with significant increases in disclosed transactions and a revised management approach to streamline processes [12][13]