Market News - CPI and PPI data will be released on January 9, 2026, with an expected CPI year-on-year growth of 0.7% and a PPI year-on-year decline of 1.9% [3] - The 2026 childcare subsidy application will open on January 5, 2026, with over 24 million people having received subsidies in 2025, achieving an 80% issuance rate [4] - The first adjustment of refined oil prices in 2026 will occur on January 6, with gasoline and diesel prices decreasing by 170 yuan and 165 yuan per ton, respectively [5] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data will be released on January 6, with unemployment rate predictions ranging from 4.5% to 4.7% [6] Sector Events - The 2026 International Consumer Electronics Show (CES) will commence on January 6, featuring major tech companies and new exhibitors from China, including Lenovo and Hisense [8] - Honor Power2 will be officially launched on January 5, featuring a 10000mAh battery and MediaTek Dimensity 8500Elite chip, achieving a benchmark score of over 2.4 million [9] Company News - Zhongwei Company plans to acquire 64.69% of Hangzhou Zhongwei's equity through a combination of stock issuance and cash payment, with the company specializing in CMP equipment [11] - Meike Home intends to acquire 100% of Wanda's equity to expand into the high-speed interconnect field, with stock resuming trading on January 5, 2026 [12] - ST Asia Pacific has completed its restructuring, with a reference price of 7.05 yuan per share for its stock resumption on January 5, 2026 [13] - Jiaheng Homecare's controlling shareholder will change to Hangzhou Pinpianyi, with a share transfer price of 33.21 yuan per share [15] Lock-up Expiration - A total of 36 stocks will have their lock-up periods expire from January 5 to January 9, 2026, with a total market value exceeding 160 billion yuan [17] - Notable expirations include Fenghuo Electronics with 11,424.9 million shares valued at 139.612 million yuan and Construction Industry with 62,994.3 million shares valued at 1.689 billion yuan [18] New Stock Calendar - Two new stocks will be issued from January 5 to January 9, 2026, including Zhixin Co. on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Kema Materials on the Beijing Stock Exchange [21] Institutional Outlook - Institutions expect the market to transition from a "structural bull" to an "index bull" in 2026, with a focus on AI applications, humanoid robot mass production, and mergers and acquisitions [24] - Zhongtai Securities emphasizes the potential in AI application industries, predicting a positive outlook for the computer sector [25] - Huachuang Securities anticipates accelerated development of domestic AI computing chips due to restrictions on overseas chips [26] - Goldman Sachs notes that overseas investments are increasingly favoring Chinese assets, predicting a 13% average price increase in global stocks in 2026 [29]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a tug-of-war around the 4000-point level, with accelerated sector rotation and intensified capital competition as the year-end approaches and looking ahead to 2026 [3] Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index is currently in a phase of consolidation, with a lack of strong catalysts leading to relatively stable market momentum. The market is expected to exhibit a pattern of oscillation and accumulation [3] - Internal market dynamics show a significant increase in the speed of style and sector rotation, with profit opportunities concentrating in specific sub-sectors [3] Short-term Strategy - A "watch and wait" strategy is recommended to avoid the risks of chasing highs and cutting losses, as investors adopt a more cautious approach near year-end [3] Mid-term Outlook - The core support logic for the market is becoming clearer, with similarities to the 2020-2021 market conditions. The current market is in the early stages of a new policy-driven and industry trend-driven cycle [3] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to provide new hotspots for the market, leading to a stable A-share market towards the end of the year [3] Long-term Perspective (2026) - The outlook for RMB-denominated equity assets is strategically optimistic due to three main reasons: 1. The rise of new economic drivers in China, such as advanced manufacturing and technological innovation, is expected to drive a re-evaluation of China's growth model by overseas funds [3] 2. A marginal easing of Sino-U.S. relations is likely to enhance risk appetite [3] 3. Increasing certainty of global liquidity easing will support the RMB and equity markets [3] - Incremental capital sources for the market in 2026 are likely to come from foreign investment and public funds, with a gradual appreciation of the RMB against the USD anticipated [3] Asset Allocation Strategy - A balanced asset allocation strategy is recommended for the fourth quarter, with an emphasis on defensive and recovery opportunities in the short term [4] - High-dividend sectors are highlighted as important alternatives to deposits and real estate, while sectors such as finance, energy resources, public utilities, consumption, operators, and transportation are noted for their specific focus areas [4] - In the mid-term, the focus remains on technology growth and advanced manufacturing, with an emphasis on domestic production processes and new productive forces [4]