1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **PTA**: The Middle - East geopolitical situation is still evolving, and the strong trend of raw materials supports the upward movement of PTA prices. However, the supply - demand side of PTA itself lacks support. It is expected that the spot price of PTA will fluctuate following the cost side in the short term. The spot basis has risen and then fallen. Attention should be paid to the impact of the Israel - Iran situation on oil prices and the fluctuation of polyester load [5]. - **MEG**: If the Strait of Hormuz maintains normal passage, the supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol will turn balanced in July, and the spot liquidity is gradually being released. The fundamental support for ethylene glycol will gradually weaken under the expectation of domestic production recovery and weak demand. In the short term, the market price is still mainly affected by external and cost factors. Follow - up attention should be paid to the changes in the Israel - Iran situation and the release of ethane vessels [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - No relevant information provided in the report. 3.2. Daily Tips PTA - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, trading was mainly among traders, and some polyester factories replenished their stocks. The June goods were traded at 09 + 260 - 290, with the price negotiation range around 5220 - 5330. The goods in early July were traded at 09 + 260 - 270. The mainstream spot basis today is 09 + 269 [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 5175, the basis of the 09 contract is 302, and the futures price is at a discount, showing a bullish signal [6]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory is 4.15 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 days, showing a bearish signal [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish signal [6]. - **Main Position**: The net long position is increasing, showing a bullish signal [6]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol declined slightly at a high level, and the market negotiation was average. At night, ethylene glycol remained firm at a high level, and the spot basis strengthened slightly. The spot negotiation next week was at a premium of 82 - 83 yuan/ton to the 09 contract. The intraday market declined slightly, and the trading was light. The low - level spot was traded at around 4560 yuan/ton. In terms of US dollars, the external price center of ethylene glycol adjusted at a high level. The mainstream negotiation of recent shipments was around 534 - 538 US dollars/ton, and the near - ocean shipments in July were traded at 538 US dollars/ton, with a cargo volume of 1000 tons [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4547, the basis of the 09 contract is 79, and the futures price is at a discount, showing a bullish signal [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China is 53.10 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.28 tons, showing a bullish signal [8]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish signal [8]. - **Main Position**: The main net short position is decreasing, showing a bearish signal [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus - **Influencing Factors Summary**: - **Positive Factors**: The Middle - East geopolitical situation is still evolving, and the strong trend of raw materials supports the upward movement of PTA prices [9]. - **Negative Factors**: The previously shut - down PTA plants are gradually restarting, and new plants are being put into production, leading to a weakening supply - demand pattern. From the demand side, the end of the rush - to - export period and the off - season of domestic demand mean a definite weakening trend in terminal demand [9]. - **Current Main Logic and Risk Points**: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and after the market rebounds, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides the PTA supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on PTA production capacity, production, imports, exports, and inventory [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides the ethylene glycol supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on ethylene glycol production, imports, consumption, and port inventory [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of stop-loss strategies in trading, suggesting that holding onto losing positions is always wrong, regardless of the situation [1] - The gold market is experiencing significant volatility, with a notable drop of $70 in a single day, indicating a bearish sentiment among investors regarding geopolitical tensions [1][3] - The oil market is also undergoing substantial fluctuations, with recent price movements comparable to the volatility seen over the past two months, driven by geopolitical factors [4][6] Group 2 - For gold trading, key support levels are identified at the 3360-55 range, with potential resistance at 3405-07, indicating a strategic approach to trading based on these levels [3] - In the silver market, a bearish outlook is suggested, with primary resistance levels at 37 and 37.5, while support is noted at 35.5 and 34.8-6 [3] - The crude oil market is advised to consider buying on dips around the 70 level, with significant resistance at 72.5-73 and 75, indicating a tactical approach to trading in response to market conditions [6]