商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 12 日 原木：低位震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 原木基本面数据 期货研究 | 价格指标 项目 2025/12/11 2025/12/10 | 2025/12/9 | 2025/12/8 | 2025/12/5 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2601合约(收盘价) 746 756 | 766. 5 | 769.5 | 765. 5 | -1. 3% | -2.5% | | 2601合约(成交量) 7123 11886 | 3094 | 5206 | 2948 | -40. 1% | 142% | | 2601合约 (持仓量) 14509 13070 | 13846 | 14469 | 15277 | 11.0% | -5% | | 2603合约(收盘价) 769 776.5 | 778.5 | 779 | 778. 5 | -1.0% | —1% | | 盘面 2603合约(成交量) 1581 2599 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the log industry is "Low-level oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The log market is currently in a state of low-level oscillation, with various price indicators and trading volumes showing different trends [1][2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: The 2601 contract's closing price increased by 0.2% daily and 0.3% weekly, while its trading volume decreased by 38.5% daily and 28% weekly, and its open interest decreased by 1.6% daily and 1% weekly. The 2603 contract's closing price rose by 0.3% daily and remained unchanged weekly, with trading volume down 46% daily and 35% weekly, and open interest up 3.8% daily and 3% weekly. The 2605 contract's closing price also increased by 0.3% daily and was flat weekly, trading volume decreased by 7.4% daily and 32% weekly, and open interest rose by 3.4% daily and 7% weekly [2] - **Spot-Futures Spreads**: The spreads between spot and 2601, 2603 contracts increased by 10% and 9.4% daily, and 14% and 7% weekly respectively [2] - **Inter-Contract Spreads**: The spreads between 2601 - 2603, 2601 - 2605, 2603 - 2605 contracts showed certain changes [2] - **Spot Market**: Most log and wood product prices in the spot market remained stable, with only a few showing slight changes. For example, the price of 3.9 - meter 20 + radiata pine in the Jiangsu market decreased by 1.4%, and the price of P30 (knot - free wood) in the Shandong market decreased by 4.9% [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - In November, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing industry's business climate [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the log industry is "Wide - range Fluctuation" [1] 2. Core View - There is no explicit core view provided in the report, but it presents comprehensive data on log fundamentals and relevant macro and industry news 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contract Data**: - For the 2509 contract, on July 17, the closing price was 833, with a daily increase of 4.5% and a weekly increase of 6.0%. The trading volume was 68470, a daily increase of 236.3% and a weekly increase of 243%. The open interest was 34390, a daily increase of 40.7% [2] - For the 2511 contract, on July 17, the closing price was 829.5, with a daily increase of 4.3%. The trading volume was 2411, a daily increase of 236.3% and a weekly increase of 188%. The open interest was 4124, a daily increase of 1.2% and a weekly increase of 14% [2] - For the 2601 contract, on July 17, the closing price was 832, with a daily increase of 4.1%. The trading volume was 1114, a daily increase of 150.3% and a weekly increase of 325%. The open interest was 1620, a daily increase of 34.4% and a weekly increase of 94% [2] - **Basis Data**: - The basis of "spot - 2509" on July 17 was - 93, with a daily increase of 63.2% and a weekly increase of 102% - The basis of "2509 - 2511" on July 17 was 3.5, with a daily increase of 133.3% and a weekly increase of 133% [2] - **Spot Market Data**: Most of the spot prices of various types of logs and wood squares in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained unchanged on July 17, with a daily and weekly increase of 0.0%. Only a few varieties had small price changes, such as the 3.9 - meter 20 + radiata pine in the Jiangsu market, with a weekly decrease of 1.4% [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - From July 14 to 15, the Central Urban Work Conference was held in Beijing, and General Secretary Xi Jinping attended the meeting and delivered an important speech [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral situation. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The log market shows a pattern of main contract switching and wide - range fluctuations [1] - The trend strength of logs is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Contract Data**: For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 785.5 on 2025/7/8 with a daily decline of - 0.2% and a weekly decline of - 0.9%; the trading volume was 15821 with a daily decline of - 3.7% and a weekly decline of - 3%; the open interest was 21351 with a daily decline of - 1.7% and a weekly increase of 2%. Similar data is presented for 2511 and 2601 contracts, showing different trends in closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests [1] - **Spot - Futures Relationship**: The basis between spot and 2509 contract was - 35.5 on 2025/7/8 with a daily decline of - 4.1% and a weekly decline of - 17%. Similar trends are observed for other contract - spot relationships [1] - **Inter - contract Spreads**: The spread between 2509 - 2511 was 3.5 on 2025/7/8 with no daily change and a 46% weekly decline; the spread between 2509 - 2601 was 4.5 with an 80% daily increase and a 44% weekly decline [1] - **Spot Market**: Most spot prices of different types of logs and wood products in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained stable, with only a few showing slight weekly increases, such as 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in Shandong market with a 2.4% weekly increase and in Jiangsu market with a 2.5% weekly increase [1] Macro and Industry News - On July 7 (local time), US President Trump signed an executive order to extend the so - called "reciprocal tariff" suspension period from July 9 to August 1 [3]