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原:震荡反复
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 03:17
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the log industry is "Oscillating and Repeating" [1] 2. Core View - The report presents the latest fundamental data of logs, including price, trading volume, and open interest of different contracts, as well as the prices of various log products in the spot market. It also mentions a piece of macro - industry news about the Sino - US economic and trade talks [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Fundamental Data of Logs - **Futures Contracts**: The 2509 contract's closing price was 830 on July 29, 2025, with a daily decline of 0.1% and a weekly increase of 0.9%. Its trading volume decreased by 51.1% daily and 41% weekly, and the open interest decreased by 4.3% daily and 8% weekly. Similar data is provided for the 2511 and 2601 contracts [2] - **Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts, such as 2509 - 2511, 2509 - 2601, and 2511 - 2601, are presented. For example, the 2509 - 2511 spread was - 3 on July 29, 2025 [2] - **Spot Market**: The prices of various log products in the Shandong and Jiangsu markets are listed, including different lengths and specifications of radiata pine, spruce, K - wood, pulp, and wood squares. Most of the prices remained stable with a daily change of 0.0%, but there were some weekly changes, such as a 4.0% weekly increase in the 5.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in the Jiangsu market [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On July 28, 2025, the economic and trade teams of China and the United States held economic and trade talks in Stockholm, Sweden [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of logs is 1, indicating a neutral - to - slightly - strong trend [4]
原木:宽幅震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 05:55
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the log industry is "Wide - range Fluctuation" [1] 2. Core View - There is no explicit core view provided in the report, but it presents comprehensive data on log fundamentals and relevant macro and industry news 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contract Data**: - For the 2509 contract, on July 17, the closing price was 833, with a daily increase of 4.5% and a weekly increase of 6.0%. The trading volume was 68470, a daily increase of 236.3% and a weekly increase of 243%. The open interest was 34390, a daily increase of 40.7% [2] - For the 2511 contract, on July 17, the closing price was 829.5, with a daily increase of 4.3%. The trading volume was 2411, a daily increase of 236.3% and a weekly increase of 188%. The open interest was 4124, a daily increase of 1.2% and a weekly increase of 14% [2] - For the 2601 contract, on July 17, the closing price was 832, with a daily increase of 4.1%. The trading volume was 1114, a daily increase of 150.3% and a weekly increase of 325%. The open interest was 1620, a daily increase of 34.4% and a weekly increase of 94% [2] - **Basis Data**: - The basis of "spot - 2509" on July 17 was - 93, with a daily increase of 63.2% and a weekly increase of 102% - The basis of "2509 - 2511" on July 17 was 3.5, with a daily increase of 133.3% and a weekly increase of 133% [2] - **Spot Market Data**: Most of the spot prices of various types of logs and wood squares in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained unchanged on July 17, with a daily and weekly increase of 0.0%. Only a few varieties had small price changes, such as the 3.9 - meter 20 + radiata pine in the Jiangsu market, with a weekly decrease of 1.4% [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - From July 14 to 15, the Central Urban Work Conference was held in Beijing, and General Secretary Xi Jinping attended the meeting and delivered an important speech [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral situation. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [4]
原木:基差修复,宽幅震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 05:08
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The log market shows basis repair and wide - range fluctuations [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contract Data**: For the 2507 contract, the closing price on June 19, 2025, was 798, with a daily increase of 0.3% and a weekly increase of 4.0%. The trading volume was 21,160, a daily decrease of 34.0% and a weekly increase of 39%. The open interest was 22,957, a daily decrease of 1.9% and a weekly increase of 9%. Similar data is presented for 2509 and 2511 contracts [1] - **Basis Data**: The basis between spot and 2507 contract was - 48 on June 19, 2025, with a daily increase of 5.5% and a weekly increase of 75%. The basis between 2507 - 2509 contract had a daily increase of 700.0% and a weekly decrease of 124% [1] - **Spot Market Data**: In the log spot market, most prices remained stable on June 19, 2025, with some showing minor weekly changes. For example, the price of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in the Shandong market was 750 yuan/m³, with a weekly increase of 1.4%. In the wood square spot market, prices were mostly unchanged [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - From January to May 2025, the national real - estate development investment was 362.34 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7% [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The log trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [3]
格林:基差修复,宽幅震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-19 01:19
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The report indicates that the log market is experiencing basis repair and wide - range fluctuations. The trend strength of logs is rated as 1, suggesting a neutral - to - slightly positive outlook [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2507 contract, the closing price on June 18 was 795.5 with a daily increase of 0.3% and a weekly increase of 4.0%. The trading volume decreased by 32.0% daily but increased by 116% weekly, and the open interest decreased by 2.8% daily and increased by 5% weekly. Similar data is presented for 2509 and 2511 contracts, showing different price, volume, and open - interest trends [1]. - **Basis**: The basis between spot and futures contracts, as well as between different futures contracts, showed significant changes. For example, the basis of spot - 2507 decreased by 14.2% daily and increased by 82% weekly [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Different types of logs in various regions had different price changes. For instance, the price of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in the Shandong market increased by 1.4% both daily and weekly, while the price of 5.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in the Jiangsu market decreased by 2.4% weekly [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - From January to May, the national real estate development investment was 362.34 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7% [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The log trend intensity is 1, within the range of [-2, 2], indicating a neutral - to - slightly positive view [3].