【基本面跟踪】 原木基本面数据 2026 年 2 月 27 日 | 价格指标 | 项 目 | 2026/2/26 | 2026/2/25 | 2026/2/24 | 2026/2/13 | 2026/2/12 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2603合约（收盘价） | 792 | 797.5 | 788.5 | 787.5 | 779.5 | -0.7% | 1.6% | | | 2603合约（成交量） | 832 | 4795 | 1913 | 2277 | 3795 | -82.6% | -78% | | | 2603合约（持仓量） | 800 | 1439 | 2230 | 2449 | 3142 | -44.4% | -75% | | | 2605合约（收盘价） | 793.5 | 796 | 789 | 787 | 785 | -0.3% | 1% | | 盘面 | 2605合约（成交量） | 2378 | 5126 | 2407 | 1560 | 2190 | -53.6% | ...

2026 年 2 月 26 日 原木：地产预期回暖，震荡偏强 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 品 研 究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 原木基本面数据 | 价格指标 | 项 目 | 2026/2/25 | 2026/2/24 | 2026/2/13 | 2026/2/12 | 2026/2/11 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2603合约（收盘价） | 797.5 | 788.5 | 787.5 | 779.5 | 777 | 1.1% | 2.6% | | | 2603合约（成交量） | 4795 | 1913 | 2277 | 3795 | 2566 | 150.7% | 87% | | | 2603合约（持仓量） | 1439 | 2230 | 2449 | 3142 | 3972 | -35.5% | -64% | | | 2605合约（收盘价） | 796 | 789 | ...

2026 年 2 月 24 日 原木：低到港低库存，震荡偏强 期货研究 商 品 研 究 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 原木基本面数据 | 2026/2/11 | 价格指标 | 项 目 | 2026/2/13 | 2026/2/12 | 2026/2/10 | 2026/2/9 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 777 | | 2603合约（收盘价） | 787.5 | 779.5 | 773.5 | 775 | 1.0% | 1.6% | | 2566 | | 2603合约（成交量） | 2277 | 3795 | 4155 | 7702 | -40.0% | -70% | | 3972 | | 2603合约（持仓量） | 2449 | 3142 | 4525 | 5279 | -22.1% | -54% | | 787.5 | | 2605合约（收盘价） | 787 | 785 | 789.5 | 785.5 | 0.3% | ...

【基本面跟踪】 原木：需求预期不佳，价格下跌 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 2026 年 2 月 10 日 原木基本面数据 | 2026/2/4 | 价格指标 | 项 目 | 2026/2/6 | 2026/2/5 | 2026/2/3 | 2026/2/2 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 807.5 | | 2603合约（收盘价） | 784 | 802 | 801 | 795 | -2.2% | -1.4% | | 8544 | | 2603合约（成交量） | 9069 | 6656 | 6731 | 11027 | 36.3% | -18% | | 9329 | | 2603合约（持仓量） | 6990 | 8922 | 8902 | 9071 | -21.7% | -23% | | 802 | | 2605合约（收盘价） | 788 | 797.5 | 802 | 796 | -1.2% | -1% | | 2382 | 盘面 | 26 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Port arrivals of logs are low, and spot prices are rising steadily [1] - China's January RatingDog Manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations and up from the previous value of 50.1 [3] - Multiple real estate companies are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report "Three Red Lines" indicators monthly, but some troubled real estate companies need to report financial indicators such as asset - liability ratio to the special team in the city where their headquarters are located regularly [3][4] - The trend strength of logs is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2603 contract, the closing price decreased by 2.2% daily and 1.4% weekly, the trading volume increased by 36.3% daily and decreased by 18% weekly, and the open interest decreased by 21.7% daily and 23% weekly. For the 2605 contract, the closing price decreased by 1.2% daily and 1% weekly, the trading volume increased by 17.4% daily and 8% weekly, and the open interest decreased by 9.4% daily and increased by 3% weekly. For the 2607 contract, the closing price decreased by 0.7% daily and 1% weekly, the trading volume increased by 172.0% daily and 80% weekly, and the open interest decreased by 1.9% daily and increased by 5% weekly [1] - **Spot - Futures Spreads**: The spreads between spot and 2603, spot and 2605 decreased by 34.6% and 20.0% daily respectively, and 24% and 17% weekly respectively. The spreads between 2603 - 2605, 2603 - 2607, and 2605 - 2607 also showed certain changes [1] - **Spot Market**: Most spot prices of different types of logs and wood squares remained stable, with only the price of 5.9 - meter 20 + radiata pine in the Shandong market increasing by 1.4% daily and weekly, and the price of 3 - meter and 4 - meter radiata pine wood squares in Chongqing increasing by 0.7% weekly [1] Macro and Industry News - China's January RatingDog Manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations and up from the previous value of 50.1 [3] - Multiple real estate companies are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report "Three Red Lines" indicators monthly, but some troubled real estate companies need to report financial indicators such as asset - liability ratio to the special team in the city where their headquarters are located regularly [3][4]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 3 日 原木：小幅探涨 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 原木基本面数据 | 项 目 | 价格指标 | 2026/1/28 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | 2026/1/27 | | 2026/2/2 2026/1/30 | | 2026/1/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2603合约（收盘价） 795 798 785 775.5 775.5 | | | -0.4% | | | 2.5% | | | | | 2603合约（成交量） 11027 15438 9866 2751 3684 | | | -28.6% | | | 199% | | | | | 2603合约（持仓量） 9071 10123 10248 10129 10340 | | | -10.4% | | | -12% | | | | | 2605合约（收盘价） 796 796.5 789.5 784.5 786.5 | | | -0.1% | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The log market is showing a slight upward trend, with the trend strength of logs being rated as "1" (indicating a relatively weak bullish sentiment) [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of log futures contracts (2603, 2605, 2607) have shown different degrees of change. For example, the 2603 contract's closing price increased by 1.7% daily and 2.8% weekly, and its trading volume soared by 56.5% daily and 205% weekly [1]. - **Spread Data**: The spreads between different futures contracts (such as 2603 - 2605, 2603 - 2607, 2605 - 2607) have also changed, and the spreads between spot and futures have increased significantly, with the spot - 2603 spread rising by 28.9% daily and 61% weekly [1]. - **Spot Market Data**: The prices of various types of logs and wood squares in the Shandong and Jiangsu markets are mostly stable, with only a few showing slight increases or decreases. For example, the price of 11.8 - meter spruce 20 + in the Jiangsu market decreased by 0.9% daily and weekly, while the price of 3 - meter radiation pine wood squares in the Zhenjiang market increased by 2.4% weekly [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - China's industrial enterprise profits in December increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and the annual growth was 0.6% [3]. - Many real estate developers are no longer required to report the "Three Red Lines" indicators monthly, but some troubled developers need to report financial indicators such as asset - liability ratios regularly [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of logs is 1, with the range of values being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. -2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The log market is in a narrow - range oscillation [1] - The log trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2603 contract, the closing price on January 29, 2026, was 785 with a daily increase of 1.2% and a weekly increase of 1.2%; the trading volume was 9866, a daily surge of 258.6% and a weekly rise of 5%; the open interest was 10248, a daily increase of 1.2% and a weekly decrease of 12%. Similar data is provided for 2605 and 2607 contracts, showing different price, volume, and open - interest changes [1] - **Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts (e.g., 2603 - 2605, 2603 - 2607, 2605 - 2607) and the spreads between spot and futures contracts (e.g., spot - 2603, spot - 2605) have their respective values and changes [1] - **Spot Market**: In the log and wood - square spot markets of Shandong and Jiangsu, prices of different types of logs and wood squares (such as 3.9 - meter, 5.9 - meter radiation pine, K - wood, paper pulp, etc.) have different daily and weekly price change rates, with some remaining stable and some showing slight increases or decreases [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - China's industrial enterprises above the designated size had a 5.3% year - on - year profit growth in December and a 0.6% year - on - year growth for the whole year [3] - Many real - estate enterprises are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report the "three red lines" indicators monthly, but some troubled real - estate enterprises need to report financial indicators such as asset - liability ratio to the special team in their headquarters cities regularly [3]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 27 日 原木：区间震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 原木基本面数据 期货研究 期货研究 | 价格指标 项 目 2026/1/26 2026/1/23 | 2026/1/22 | 2026/1/21 | 2026/1/20 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2603合约（收盘价） 776 776 | 768.5 | 764 | 756 | 0.0% | 2.6% | | 2603合约（成交量） 5068 9430 | 4760 | 8422 | 8841 | -46.3% | -43% | | 2603合约（持仓量） 10481 11610 | 14921 | 15791 | 15748 | -9.7% | -33% | | 2605合约（收盘价） 783 788.5 | 786 | 781.5 | 775 | -0.7% | 1% | | 盘面 | | | | | | | 2605合约（成交量） 1996 956 | 695 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The log market is in a state of repeated fluctuations, and the trend strength is neutral with a value of 0 [1][3] Group 3: Summary of Key Information from the Report 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: - For the 2603 contract, the closing price on January 22, 2026, was 768.5, with a daily increase of 1.0% and a weekly increase of 1.7%. The trading volume was 4760, with a daily increase of 98.1% and a weekly decrease of 20%. The open interest was 14921, with a daily decrease of 22.2% and a weekly decrease of 14% [1]. - For the 2605 contract, the closing price was 786, with a daily increase of 0.3% and a weekly increase of 1%. The trading volume was 695, with a daily increase of 37.6% and a weekly decrease of 12%. The open interest was 3267, with a daily decrease of 4.7% and a weekly increase of 12% [1]. - For the 2607 contract, the closing price was 799.5, with a daily decrease of 0.1% and a weekly increase of 0%. The trading volume was 110, with a daily increase of 92.6% and a weekly increase of 162%. The open interest was 1060, with a daily decrease of 4.7% and a weekly increase of 2% [1]. - **Spreads**: - The spread between the spot and the 2603 contract was -28.5, with a daily increase of 26.3% and a weekly increase of 57%. The spread between the spot and the 2605 contract was -46, with a daily increase of 5.4% and a weekly increase of 14% [1]. - The spreads between different contracts (2603 - 2605, 2603 - 2607, 2605 - 2607) remained relatively stable [1]. - **Spot Market**: - Most of the log and wood - square spot prices in different regions and specifications remained unchanged, with only a few showing slight fluctuations. For example, the price of 3 - meter radiation pine wood square in Chongqing increased by 0.7% both daily and weekly [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - China's December RatingDog Composite PMI was 51.3, exceeding the 50.0 boom - bust line and slightly rising from 51.2 in November, indicating a further increase in the total production and operation volume of Chinese enterprises at the end of 2025 [3]