Q2 季末公司合同负债9.8 亿元，同比/环比分别-0.9/+0.5 亿元，25H1 收现比为115.0%，公司5 月以来及 时控货消化库存，上半年回款与出货基本匹配。2）利润端：25H1 销售净利率同比-7.1pct，主系毛销差 收窄及营业税金波动所致。①25 H1 毛利率同比-1.7pct 至79.3%，主因货折放大所致，25H1、Q2 吨价 分别同比-24.7%、-39.0%。公司继续对臻酿八号宴席、开瓶保持较大促销力度，"买六赠一"等活动持续 强化公司产品的宴席场景流行性。②25H1 销售费用同比-6.2%，费率同比+2.6pct，Q2，公司继续围 绕"国保美酒水井坊，喝美酒庆美事"的品牌主张，打造多项节日整合营销活动。25Q2 销售净利率同 比-22.9pct，利润同比转亏，1 是开瓶费用支持放大货折拉低毛利，2 是季度期间费用支出相对刚性。 持续强化价盘管理，坚定执行长期主义。公司通过动态价格监控体系与渠道利润保护机制，稳定市场秩 序，针对局部区域窜货乱价现象，一方面自7 月8 日起，对全渠道臻酿八号500ml 装执行停货，并对电 商渠道臻酿八号520ml 装采取稳定价值链及买赠管控等措施；另一方 ...

增持（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 4,953 | 5,217 | 4,430 | 4,230 | 4,536 | | 同比（%） | 6.00 | 5.32 | (15.08) | (4.51) | 7.24 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,268.80 | 1,341.03 | 951.53 | 828.67 | 896.39 | | 同比（%） | 4.36 | 5.69 | (29.04) | (12.91) | 8.17 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 2.60 | 2.75 | 1.95 | 1.70 | 1.84 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 18.07 | 17.10 | 24.10 | 27.67 | 25.58 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券研究报告·公司点评报告·白酒Ⅱ 水井坊（600779） 2025 年中报点评 ...

Core Insights - The competitive landscape in the consumer goods market is intensifying, with many distributors facing declining revenues and profits, as highlighted by a report indicating that 48.7% of surveyed distributors experienced revenue drops and 63.2% saw profit declines [1] - The industry is grappling with issues such as price competition, high inventory levels, and sluggish sales, leading to an imbalance in input-output ratios and creating a challenging environment for distributors [1] - Li Jinji's strategy for 2025 focuses on stabilizing existing channels, deepening distribution, and exploring new markets to address these challenges and foster mutual benefits with partners [2][3] Market Dynamics - The current market is characterized by chaotic pricing, cross-regional smuggling, and price inversion, which undermine profit margins and market order, posing significant survival challenges for distributors [4] - Li Jinji acknowledges the need to confront these pricing issues head-on, emphasizing the importance of a stable pricing system for long-term survival and growth [4][6] Strategic Initiatives - Li Jinji is elevating price management to a long-term strategic priority, implementing strict regulations and increasing investments in market management to enhance pricing control capabilities [6][7] - The company is actively engaging with distributors through a series of communication meetings to foster a collaborative environment and reinforce market order [9][11] Collaborative Approach - Li Jinji aims to create a "community of shared destiny" with distributors, focusing on mutual growth and stability in the market [3][12] - The company is leveraging data-driven strategies to optimize product offerings for individual stores, enhancing operational efficiency and enabling distributors to transition from mere logistics providers to market operators [12][14] Market Expansion - Li Jinji is targeting county-level markets with tailored product strategies that reflect local cultural preferences and seasonal trends, aiming to maximize sales potential and strengthen distributor capabilities [14][15] - The company is committed to providing resources and training to distributors to enhance their operational capabilities in these new markets [15] Long-term Vision - Li Jinji's approach is not merely tactical but represents a fundamental rethinking of distribution, emphasizing the interconnectedness of brands, channels, and consumers [16][17] - The company's commitment to high-quality products and a strong understanding of channel dynamics is seen as essential for building trust and ensuring sustainable growth in a challenging market environment [17]