四川在线记者 张红霞 车排长龙，人头攒动。1月1日，成都国际商贸城以红火的商气，拉开"数智金牛 商韵村糖"金牛区首届"村糖会"暨国际商贸城第八届新春年货节帷幕——"金 牛智造"联动3.8万商家、汇集1900余种40余万件特色商品，打造了覆盖全品类、全场景的消费盛宴。 "金牛智造"产品，首次以广场展销的形式，与市民亲切相见。徽记食品携金刚葵瓜子、煮瓜子、坚果礼盒、好巴食豆腐干等明星产品重磅亮相。刚刚过去的 12月，徽记建成了数字化车间，从原料筛选、生产加工到成品包装，全流程采用数据采集系统与AI监测设备，确保品质稳定与供应高效。水井坊带来了井 台、臻酿八号等多个产品，其同样通过生产数字化与智能化升级，从原粮粉碎、泥窖发酵到分层蒸馏，全流程实现数据化追溯与精准调控。腾盾科创的"双 尾蝎"等明星无人机缩比高仿真模型同步开启发售。 本次"村糖会"犹如一个巨大的"万物集"。主会场划分为年货展位、非遗展位、链主企业展位等多个功能区域，吃穿用度应有尽有，通过"摆展＋试吃""展示 ＋体验"的多元形式，让市民沉浸式感受消费。活动打破区域壁垒，深化省内协同合作，石渠县、彭州市、什邡市、丹棱县、邛崃市五地携手带来牦牛肉、 石渠白菌 ...

国民影帝，带货白酒了。 此次管理层邀请梁朝伟代言，显然意在加强第一坊的势能。只是，甄酿八号等"水井坊"系列单品，也挂 上照片希望共享热度。 据悉，梁朝伟已为高端酒类代言过。 2022年，马爹利蓝带110周年庆，官宣其为代言人，合作延续至今。此次携手"第一坊"，是这位国民级 影帝，首次涉足白酒代言。 水井坊归属于帝亚吉欧（Diageo），马爹利蓝带则是保乐力加（Pernod Ricard）旗下，因此，梁朝伟一 人肩挑两大洋酒集团的代言。 当下，水井坊股份整体颇具挑战。 12月23日，《21CBR》记者在水井坊天猫旗舰店看到，多数单品链接均挂上梁朝伟照片。臻酿八号、井 台等系列，显示"梁朝伟首选白酒"。 截至当日16时，其销量最多的一款单品，为甄酿八号52度520ml双支礼盒，券后优惠价约800元，显示 有1000+的付款量。 水井坊在12月中旬发布短片，官宣梁朝伟为"水井坊·第一坊"首位品牌代言人。 "第一坊"，是总经理胡庭洲力推的高端品牌，定位"博物馆级别老酒"，定价在800元以上，其与核心品 牌"水井坊"形成梯队，后者主打300~800元区间。 今年3月，团队推出第一坊首款战略单品——"第一坊·晶狮"，定价 ...

如果演员分为两种，一种用台词推动剧情，那么梁朝伟则属于另一种。他习惯用眼神书写故事，观众也 总能在他的"眼绎"中，捕捉到那些未曾言明的留白与深情。 在电影之外，这份独特的观察力，也让梁朝伟对生活本身有了更深的感悟。在他看来，那些日常中遇到 过的温暖人事、那些值得铭记的相聚与收获，都是应当被发现、更值得被庆祝的"美事"。而庆祝一份美 事，自然需要一杯相称的美酒。这一次，梁朝伟选择了它—— 近日，国民影帝梁朝伟官宣成为"中国白酒第一坊"水井坊（600779）的品牌代言人，并同步推出主题品 牌短片。这也是梁朝伟的首个白酒代言，双方围绕"喝美酒，庆美事"这一价值主张，从对生活美事的共 同信仰出发，用梁朝伟的"眼绎"见证、以水井坊的美酒陪伴，共同开启一场"以国保美酒共庆人生美 事"的全民倡导。 梁朝伟牵手水井坊，开启一场"以国保美酒共庆人生美事"的全民倡导 他的眼神里，全是中国人的美事模样 在梁朝伟四十余年的演员生涯中，眼神是他最独特的叙事笔触。他无需依赖繁复的台词或夸张的肢体， 仅凭一瞥、凝视或垂眸，便能构建复杂的情感宇宙。 《无间道》里天台上的经典对视。梁朝伟仅用一个眼神，就将生死相托的信任与不舍表达得淋漓尽致。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant challenges faced by Shui Jing Fang, including declining cash flow, sales pressure, and frequent changes in foreign shareholders, questioning the brand's trust and market position in the Chinese liquor industry [2][12]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Shui Jing Fang reported revenue of 2.348 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 38.01%, and a net profit of 326 million yuan, down 71.02% [2]. - The third quarter alone saw revenue drop to 850 million yuan, a decline of 58.91%, with net profit falling to 221 million yuan, down 75.01% [2]. - The company experienced a quarterly loss of 85 million yuan in Q2 2025, marking its first quarterly loss in three years [2]. Market Dynamics - The decline in performance is closely linked to channel adjustments, with the company implementing a full-channel suspension of its core product "Zhen Niang Ba Hao," leading to a sharp reduction in shipment volumes [5]. - Wholesale and agency revenue fell by 50.5% to 1.647 billion yuan, while new channels (including e-commerce) saw a 71.2% increase in revenue to 562 million yuan, accounting for 25% of total revenue [6]. Product Strategy - Despite rapid growth in new channels, issues such as low-price chaos in e-commerce and a wave of distributor exits persist, indicating ongoing challenges in maintaining price stability [6]. - The company continues its "de-low-end" strategy, focusing on high-margin core series, but revenue and gross margins for high-end products are still declining [6][7]. - High-end liquor revenue dropped by approximately 40% year-on-year, while mid-range liquor revenue fell by 33.12% [6]. Cost and Cash Flow - The sales expense ratio increased from 19.93% to 31.23%, indicating high spending on brand maintenance and channel incentives [9]. - By the end of Q3, the operating cash flow net amount was -867 million yuan, marking a recent low, with accounts receivable increasing by 37.96% [9][11]. - Operating cash flow fell from 1.734 billion yuan to 744 million yuan from 2023 to 2024, a decline of over 50% [11]. Management Changes - Shui Jing Fang is under foreign control by Diageo, which holds over 60% of the shares, but the expected synergies have not materialized [12][13]. - Recent management changes include the sudden departure of Diageo's global CEO and significant shifts in Shui Jing Fang's leadership, raising concerns about strategic consistency [13][14]. Future Outlook - The company is attempting to reshape its growth logic by focusing on the next high-end and low-alcohol markets, launching innovative products priced between 400-600 yuan [21]. - The overall liquor industry is experiencing a deep adjustment, with a reported decrease of 100 large-scale liquor enterprises and an 11% drop in profits in the first half of 2025 [22]. - The potential success of Shui Jing Fang's focus on next high-end and low-alcohol products remains uncertain, as competition in these segments is intense [23].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, indicating challenges in the current macroeconomic environment and a need for strategic adjustments to maintain market stability [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of approximately 1.498 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 12.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 105 million yuan, down 56.5% year-on-year [1]. - In Q2 2025, revenue declined by 31.4% year-on-year, while net profit saw a significant drop of 251.2% year-on-year [1]. - The fiscal year 2025 ended with a slight revenue decline of 2.9% compared to the previous year, indicating a stable performance despite industry adjustments [1]. Product Performance - In Q2 2025, the main products, including Zhenniang No. 8 and Jingtai, faced pressure with high-end liquor revenue down by 37.0% year-on-year, while mid-range liquor Tianhao Chen saw a recovery with a 67.7% increase in revenue due to adjustments made in Q1 [1]. - The company maintained significant promotional efforts for its products, particularly in banquet and opening scenarios, which impacted profit margins [2]. Marketing and Sales Strategy - The company implemented a dynamic pricing monitoring system and channel profit protection mechanisms to stabilize market order and address issues of price chaos in specific regions [3]. - Promotional activities such as "buy six, get one free" were used to enhance the popularity of products in banquet settings [2][3]. Profitability and Cost Management - The sales net profit margin decreased by 7.1 percentage points year-on-year in the first half of 2025, primarily due to narrowing gross sales margins and fluctuations in operating taxes [2]. - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 79.3%, down 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to increased promotional discounts [2]. Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025 to 950 million yuan, with subsequent years projected at 830 million yuan and 900 million yuan, reflecting changes in the consumption environment [3]. - The current market valuation corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 24, 28, and 26 for the years 2025 to 2027, maintaining an "overweight" rating based on historical valuation levels [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has adjusted its revenue in a timely manner, but gross sales are under pressure, which has negatively impacted profitability [1] - The company is facing a challenging macroeconomic environment, leading to a significant decline in revenue and net profit in Q2 2025 [7] - Despite the current difficulties, the company is maintaining promotional support for its products, which is expected to perform better than other second-tier high-end liquor companies [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 4,953 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.00%. However, revenue is expected to decline by 15.08% in 2025 [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1,268.80 million yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 4.36%, but a significant drop of 29.04% is anticipated in 2025 [1] - The latest diluted EPS is expected to be 2.60 yuan in 2023, decreasing to 1.95 yuan in 2025 [1] - The P/E ratio is projected to be 24.10 for 2025, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to historical levels [1] Revenue and Profitability Trends - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue decline of approximately 12.8% and a net profit drop of about 56.5% [7] - The Q2 2025 revenue saw a significant year-on-year decrease of 31.4%, with net profit declining by 251.2% [7] - The company has adjusted its product offerings, with high-end liquor revenue down by 37.0% in Q2 2025, while mid-range products showed a recovery with a 67.7% increase [7] Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing dynamic pricing and channel profit protection mechanisms to stabilize market order and address pricing issues in specific regions [7] - Promotional activities are being intensified to enhance product visibility in banquet and opening scenarios, despite the short-term impact on pricing and profitability [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is experiencing a significant downturn, with over 15 companies reporting substantial declines in profits or expected losses, indicating a deep adjustment period for the sector [1][5]. Company Performance - Shunxin Agriculture (Niulanshan) expects a net profit of 155 to 195 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of 53.85% to 63.32% compared to over 400 million yuan in the same period last year [2][3]. - Jiu Gui Jiu anticipates a revenue of approximately 560 million yuan, down about 43%, with a net profit drop of 90.08% to 93.39%, projecting earnings of 8 to 12 million yuan [2][3]. - Shui Jing Fang forecasts a net profit of 105 million yuan, a decrease of about 137 million yuan or 56.52% year-on-year, with expected revenue of 1.498 billion yuan, down 12.84% [2][3]. - Jin Zhong Zi Jiu, *ST Yan Shi, and Huang Tai Jiu Ye are expected to report losses, with Jin Zhong Zi Jiu projecting a loss of 60 to 90 million yuan [4][5]. Industry Trends - The liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, with many companies citing declining sales volumes as a key factor affecting revenue and profit levels [5][6]. - Despite an increase in sales volume, Shui Jing Fang's profits have significantly declined due to rising sales expense ratios and the need for promotional support for new products [5][6]. - Fund managers are actively adjusting their portfolios, reducing positions in companies like Gu Jing Gong Jiu and Jin Si Yuan, reflecting a cautious outlook on the sector [7][12]. Strategic Responses - Companies are focusing on terminal sales and channel penetration, with some investing in store coverage and single-store productivity to adapt to the changing market [1][14]. - Jiu Gui Jiu plans to enhance consumer purchasing intent through events and expand sales channels, while Shui Jing Fang aims to increase store coverage and improve single-store sales [13][14]. - Major liquor brands are introducing lower-alcohol products to attract younger consumers, with several companies developing new low-alcohol offerings [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 64 yuan [2][8]. Core Views - The company is expected to face challenges in the first half of 2025, with projected revenue of 1.498 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.84% year-on-year, and a net profit of 105 million yuan, down 56.52% year-on-year. However, sales volume increased by 14.54% year-on-year, indicating potential recovery [2][8]. - The second quarter of 2025 is anticipated to show a revenue of 539 million yuan, a decline of 31.37% year-on-year, with a net profit turning negative at -85 million yuan compared to a profit of 56 million yuan in the same period last year [2][8]. - The report highlights that the company is adjusting its operational strategies in response to market pressures, including slowing down shipment rates and enhancing channel management to stabilize pricing [8][9]. Financial Summary - For 2024A, total revenue is projected at 5.217 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.3%. However, for 2025E, revenue is expected to decline by 10.1% to 4.687 billion yuan [4][8]. - The net profit for 2024A is estimated at 1.341 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.7%, while for 2025E, it is projected to drop to 1.004 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 25.1% [4][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025E is adjusted to 2.06 yuan, down from previous estimates, with a projected increase to 2.21 yuan in 2026E and 2.54 yuan in 2027E [4][8]. Market Performance - The company has been actively managing its market presence, with recent reports indicating a reduction in inventory levels from nearly three months to around two months, which is expected to stabilize pricing in the near future [8][9]. - The report notes that the company is taking measures to control market order and pricing, which may lead to a healthier operational environment as it enters the new fiscal year [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - Water Jiufang (600779.SH) expects a significant decline in net profit and revenue for the first half of 2025, despite a sales volume increase of over 10%, indicating a strategic adjustment during the industry's deep adjustment phase [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit of 105 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of approximately 137 million yuan, representing a 56.52% year-on-year decline [2]. - Expected revenue for the same period is 1.498 billion yuan, down 221 million yuan, or 12.84% year-on-year [2]. - The sales volume is projected to increase by 14.54%, totaling 543,000 liters, all from mid-to-high-end liquor products [2]. Market Conditions - The white liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, with traditional consumption scenarios like business banquets facing significant pressure, leading to a slowdown in market recovery [2][3]. - The overall consumption performance during the Spring Festival was below expectations, resulting in higher-than-expected channel inventory levels, which affected post-holiday shipment volumes [3]. Strategic Adjustments - The company is implementing a "one city, one policy" approach for refined channel management to accelerate terminal sales, while also focusing on high-end cultural IP layout and brand investment [1][3]. - Water Jiufang has halted the sales of its "Zhen Niang No. 8" 500ml product across all channels to stabilize the market price system [6][7]. Industry Trends - Many leading liquor companies have announced supply halts or strict quota controls in response to the industry's adjustment cycle and unstable terminal prices [7]. - Analysts remain optimistic about the company's potential for a rebound in the second half of 2025, anticipating a gradual release of the synergistic effects of volume and price as consumption recovers and channel inventory is optimized [7].

Core Viewpoint - Water Jiufang reported a significant decline in both revenue and net profit for the first half of the year, indicating challenges in the white liquor industry due to high inventory levels and weak consumer demand [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve a revenue of 1.498 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 12.84% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 105 million yuan, down 56.52% from the previous year, representing a decrease of 137 million yuan [2]. - The adjusted net profit after excluding non-recurring items is expected to be 48 million yuan, a decline of 78.74% year-on-year [2]. - In Q1, the company reported a revenue of 959 million yuan and a net profit of 190 million yuan, suggesting a Q2 revenue of approximately 539 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 31.34% [2]. Industry Context - The white liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment phase, with traditional consumption scenarios like business banquets facing ongoing pressure [3]. - The overall consumption performance during the Spring Festival was below expectations, leading to higher-than-expected channel inventory levels, which affected subsequent months' shipment volumes [3]. - The trend of weak consumer demand intensified in Q2, further impacting the inventory reduction process and slowing down the recovery of shipments [3]. Inventory Management - Water Jiufang emphasizes channel inventory levels as a core KPI for management, with daily monitoring of sales data [3]. - The company reported a sales volume increase of 543,000 liters in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 14.54%, all from mid-to-high-end liquor [3][5]. Pricing Strategy - The company has faced challenges due to high channel inventory and sluggish terminal sales, leading to low-price dumping and sales disruptions among distributors [4]. - Water Jiufang is focusing on stabilizing its pricing system, particularly for its core product, Zhenniang No. 8, which contributes over 50% of its annual revenue [5]. - The company has implemented measures to control the distribution of Zhenniang No. 8 and stabilize its value chain, including halting sales of certain product specifications until further notice [5].