今年，11月末，银行理财规模站上34.0万亿元的历史高峰，较上年末增加4.0万亿元，也就是说银行理财 今年同比多增加了1万亿元，由此看，非银存款中大部分购买了银行理财，流向股市的并不多。 文/冉学东 根据央行公布的11月金融数据，11月M1增速4.9%，前值6.2%，M2增速回落至8.0%，前值8.2%，M1和 M2剪刀差进一步拉大。M1的增速为何在11月下降，未来是否还会回升呢？ 分析今年和去年同期我国金融机构存款结构数据发现，今年前11个月存款增加较多，比去年多增加5.4 万亿元，不过住户存款变化不大，主要是非金融企业存款增加较多，从去年的减少2.1万亿元，到今年 增加了2.04万亿元。 非金融企业存款增加较多的原因主要是，企业的财务状况大幅改善，应该是政府发债，各地以"专项债 +专项贷款"推进清偿拖欠企业账款，资金从财政流向被拖欠企业，先沉淀为单位活期存款直接抬升 M1。当然企业存款改善，还与去年叫停手工补息、导致企业存款大幅减少，基数太低有关。 从住户存款方面看，2023年前11月住户存款增加17.5595万亿元，去年前11月住户存款增加12.07万亿 元，今年前11月住户存款增加12.06万亿元。去 ...

Group 1 - The narrow money supply M1 has shown a significant recovery in 2023, with a balance of 111.23 trillion yuan at the end of August, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.0%, up from 5.6% in July and 2.3% in June [2] - The gap between M1 and M2 growth rates has continued to narrow, with the M1-M2 growth rate difference decreasing from -13.4% at the beginning of the year to -2.8% in August, the lowest since June 2021, indicating an increase in liquidity [2] - The increase in M1 is attributed to a rise in corporate demand deposits, suggesting that businesses are more confident in future investments and operations, which is a positive sign for economic activity [2] Group 2 - In the first eight months of 2023, the total increase in RMB deposits was 20.5 trillion yuan, with household deposits rising by 9.77 trillion yuan and non-financial corporate deposits increasing by 610.6 billion yuan, contrasting sharply with a decrease of 2.88 trillion yuan in the same period of 2022 [3] - The significant change in non-financial corporate deposits, which saw an increase of 3.5 trillion yuan compared to the previous year, is a notable indicator of improved business sentiment [3] - The increase in deposits is also reflected in the rise of non-bank financial institution deposits, which grew by 2.3 trillion yuan this year compared to last year [3] Group 3 - The average interest rate for corporate deposits has decreased, with a cumulative decline of 26 basis points, which has influenced corporate deposit behavior [4] - Government financing has increased significantly, with corporate bond balances reaching 33.47 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, and government bonds increasing by 21.1% [4] - The issuance of special bonds has accelerated since May, aimed at replacing hidden debts and supporting government investment projects, which has positively impacted corporate cash flow [4] Group 4 - The increase in corporate demand deposits is driven by lower fixed deposit rates and expanded government financing, which has improved corporate cash flow and investment confidence [5] - The balance of corporate demand deposits rose to 207.68 billion yuan in July 2024, an increase of 8.49 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating a significant shift in corporate deposit behavior [5] - The sustainability of the M1 growth rate remains to be observed, as it heavily relies on government financing and its ability to stimulate corporate investment and consumer spending [5]