Core Viewpoint - The bank wealth management scale experienced a seasonal decline at the end of the quarter, dropping by 128.47 billion to 30.82 trillion yuan by the end of September, but this is attributed to short-term seasonal and market factors rather than a fundamental weakening of the wealth management market [1][2][3] Group 1: Factors Influencing Wealth Management Scale - The bank wealth management scale increased significantly in July and August, reaching a peak of 30.95 trillion yuan, driven by various factors including the completion of wealth management product reporting [2] - The decline in September is primarily due to the seasonal impact of banks' quarter-end assessments, where funds are often returned to the bank's balance sheet, leading to a temporary reduction in wealth management scale [2][3] - The strong performance of the A-share market in Q3 led to an increase in risk appetite among investors, resulting in some low-risk investors redeeming wealth management products to invest in equity assets [3] Group 2: Future Outlook for Q4 - The bank wealth management scale is expected to rebound in Q4 as the quarter-end fund return effects dissipate, with a traditional year-end surge anticipated [4] - It is projected that the wealth management scale will grow by over 300 billion yuan in Q4, with an overall annual increase expected to exceed 3 trillion yuan [4] - Structural opportunities in the wealth management market are anticipated, particularly in high-quality "fixed income +" strategy products and low-volatility fixed income products, as the growth momentum shifts from deposit inflows to product structure optimization [4] Group 3: Yield Expectations - Despite the anticipated growth in wealth management scale, yields are expected to face downward pressure, particularly for pure fixed income products due to the "asset shortage" in the bond market [5] - "Fixed income +" products may enhance yields through equity allocations, with potential for improved performance if the equity market remains strong, although volatility may lead to yield differentiation among products [5]

Scale - The total wealth management scale increased by 0.72 trillion, returning to over 30 trillion [1] - As of the end of Q2 2025, the wealth management balance reached 30.67 trillion, reflecting a 2.4% growth since the beginning of the year [1][2] - The Q2 single-season wealth management scale increment was 1.53 trillion, lower than the 1.89 trillion from the same period last year, but higher than the average increment of 0.64 trillion from 2021 to 2023 [1][3] Product Characteristics - Open-ended products maintained a stable proportion of around 80%, while cash management products decreased to 6.4 trillion [5] - Open-ended products contributed 86.1% of the scale increment in the first half of the year, with significant growth from minimum holding period products [5] - Fixed income products accounted for 97.2% of the total wealth management products, with a slight increase in the proportion of mixed and equity products [8][10] Asset Allocation - As of the end of Q2 2025, cash and bank deposits reached 8.18 trillion, increasing by 500 billion since the beginning of the year [11] - The allocation to public funds significantly increased by 450 billion, reaching 1.38 trillion, indicating a growing preference for high liquidity assets [12] - The overall asset allocation showed a tendency to increase high liquidity assets while reducing credit bonds [9][11] Market Dynamics - The "disintermediation" effect is expected to support the growth of wealth management scale, although potential disturbances may increase in the second half of the year [13][14] - The low interest rate environment and the need for stable returns are driving the demand for fixed income products, while cash management products face challenges due to lower yields [15] - Regulatory changes are anticipated to enhance the asset management capabilities of wealth management institutions, focusing on quality over scale [16]

Core Viewpoint - The scale of bank wealth management has returned to historical highs, reaching 31.33 trillion yuan in May, marking a significant recovery after the redemption wave in 2022 [1] Group 1: Wealth Management Scale Trends - The bank wealth management scale typically experiences a "quarter-end decline and quarter-beginning recovery" pattern, with a notable increase of 2.05 trillion yuan in April 2025, aligning with seasonal trends [2] - The growth in April is attributed to a strong bond market and a "deposit migration" effect due to multiple small and medium-sized banks lowering deposit rates [2] - As of April 2025, the top three institutions in wealth management scale are China Merchants Bank Wealth Management, Xinyu Wealth Management, and Xinyin Wealth Management, with significant growth observed in major state-owned banks [5][6] Group 2: Yield and Performance of Wealth Management Products - The average annualized yield of pure fixed-income wealth management products rose to 3.35% in April, while the proportion of products below par decreased to 0.5% [3] - Despite a slight recovery in yields, the performance benchmark for newly issued wealth management products continues to decline, with benchmarks for various durations showing decreases compared to March [3][4] - Analysts predict that the yields of fixed-income wealth management products may drop to around 2% due to historically low bond yields [4] Group 3: Future Outlook and Challenges - A new round of deposit rate cuts is expected to drive further growth in wealth management scale, potentially reaching 33 trillion yuan by the end of the year [7] - However, challenges remain as low credit bond yields may reduce the attractiveness of wealth management products, and regulatory changes could increase net asset value volatility [7][8] - The dynamics of the stock and bond markets, along with the impact of regulatory reforms on investor experience, will significantly influence the future growth of wealth management scale [8]