本报记者 彭妍 季末银行理财规模如期迎来季节性下行。普益标准最新统计数据显示，9月末银行理财存量规模较8月末减少1284.71亿元， 降至30.82万亿元。 多因素导致规模收缩 回溯三季度整体走势，6月末银行理财规模为30.26万亿元；随着理财回表工作收尾，7月份在多重因素推动下，银行理财规 模强势增长，单月增幅达6000亿元，规模升至30.86万亿元；8月份规模进一步攀升至30.95万亿元，创下本季度内新高。 在规模增长的同时，理财市场的结构性机会也备受关注。薛洪言分析称，当前理财市场的结构性机会主要集中在优质"固 收+"策略产品与低波动固收产品上，行业规模增长动力正从前期的"存款回流动能"逐步转向"产品结构优化"，其中"固收+"理财 将成为推动规模增长的核心主力。 针对银行理财规模的先增后调，中信证券首席经济学家明明对《证券日报》记者表示，其核心原因在于商业银行季末考核 的影响——为支援母行各类流动性指标考核，银行理财产品往往会习惯性将产品到期日设置在季末，这一操作直接导致理财资 金阶段性回流至银行表内，进而引发理财规模收缩。 四季度规模有望回升 对于四季度银行理财规模走势，薛洪言表示，随着季末资金回表因 ...

Scale - The total wealth management scale increased by 0.72 trillion, returning to over 30 trillion [1] - As of the end of Q2 2025, the wealth management balance reached 30.67 trillion, reflecting a 2.4% growth since the beginning of the year [1][2] - The Q2 single-season wealth management scale increment was 1.53 trillion, lower than the 1.89 trillion from the same period last year, but higher than the average increment of 0.64 trillion from 2021 to 2023 [1][3] Product Characteristics - Open-ended products maintained a stable proportion of around 80%, while cash management products decreased to 6.4 trillion [5] - Open-ended products contributed 86.1% of the scale increment in the first half of the year, with significant growth from minimum holding period products [5] - Fixed income products accounted for 97.2% of the total wealth management products, with a slight increase in the proportion of mixed and equity products [8][10] Asset Allocation - As of the end of Q2 2025, cash and bank deposits reached 8.18 trillion, increasing by 500 billion since the beginning of the year [11] - The allocation to public funds significantly increased by 450 billion, reaching 1.38 trillion, indicating a growing preference for high liquidity assets [12] - The overall asset allocation showed a tendency to increase high liquidity assets while reducing credit bonds [9][11] Market Dynamics - The "disintermediation" effect is expected to support the growth of wealth management scale, although potential disturbances may increase in the second half of the year [13][14] - The low interest rate environment and the need for stable returns are driving the demand for fixed income products, while cash management products face challenges due to lower yields [15] - Regulatory changes are anticipated to enhance the asset management capabilities of wealth management institutions, focusing on quality over scale [16]

Core Viewpoint - The scale of bank wealth management has returned to historical highs, reaching 31.33 trillion yuan in May, marking a significant recovery after the redemption wave in 2022 [1] Group 1: Wealth Management Scale Trends - The bank wealth management scale typically experiences a "quarter-end decline and quarter-beginning recovery" pattern, with a notable increase of 2.05 trillion yuan in April 2025, aligning with seasonal trends [2] - The growth in April is attributed to a strong bond market and a "deposit migration" effect due to multiple small and medium-sized banks lowering deposit rates [2] - As of April 2025, the top three institutions in wealth management scale are China Merchants Bank Wealth Management, Xinyu Wealth Management, and Xinyin Wealth Management, with significant growth observed in major state-owned banks [5][6] Group 2: Yield and Performance of Wealth Management Products - The average annualized yield of pure fixed-income wealth management products rose to 3.35% in April, while the proportion of products below par decreased to 0.5% [3] - Despite a slight recovery in yields, the performance benchmark for newly issued wealth management products continues to decline, with benchmarks for various durations showing decreases compared to March [3][4] - Analysts predict that the yields of fixed-income wealth management products may drop to around 2% due to historically low bond yields [4] Group 3: Future Outlook and Challenges - A new round of deposit rate cuts is expected to drive further growth in wealth management scale, potentially reaching 33 trillion yuan by the end of the year [7] - However, challenges remain as low credit bond yields may reduce the attractiveness of wealth management products, and regulatory changes could increase net asset value volatility [7][8] - The dynamics of the stock and bond markets, along with the impact of regulatory reforms on investor experience, will significantly influence the future growth of wealth management scale [8]