Summary of Financial Data for May 2025 Industry Overview - The financial data for May 2025 indicates a significant impact from government financing, particularly through special treasury bonds and local government bonds, which have contributed notably to social financing [1][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Government Financing Support**: Government financing remains a primary support for social financing, with special treasury bonds and local government bonds providing strong backing. The fiscal expenditure has been more robust compared to the same period in previous years [3]. 2. **Short-term Loans Increase**: There has been a year-on-year increase in short-term loans for enterprises, likely due to heightened short-term funding needs following tariff relaxations. This trend mirrors data from March 2025 [2][4]. 3. **Corporate Bond Financing Growth**: The issuance of technology innovation bonds has driven an increase in corporate bond financing, indicating a positive trend in this area [2][4]. 4. **Weakness in Medium to Long-term Loans**: Despite the increase in short-term loans, medium to long-term loans for enterprises remain low, reflecting a weak investment sentiment among businesses due to uncertainties surrounding tariff policies [2][4]. 5. **Non-bank Deposit Growth**: Non-bank deposits have continued to show high growth, potentially due to a shift of private sector deposits towards wealth management and other non-bank assets following a reduction in deposit rates [2][5]. 6. **M1 Growth Recovery**: The M1 money supply has seen a rebound in growth, driven by an increase in corporate demand deposits, aligning with the rise in short-term loans [2][5]. 7. **Concerns Over Deposit Trends**: The trend of converting current deposits into fixed-term deposits among government agencies has not shown significant improvement, which may affect future government procurement activities [2][5]. Additional Important Insights - The overall performance of financial data in May 2025 exceeded expectations, with the new social financing scale surpassing forecasts. Although new RMB loans were slightly below expectations, the actual performance, excluding bill financing, was still strong [2][6]. - The sustained high level of fund inflows from non-bank institutions has provided considerable support to the market, contributing to the positive overall financial data for the month [6].

Group 1 - The effectiveness of fiscal policy is beginning to show, but revenue is still below budget targets. The general public budget revenue for the first four months was 8.1 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -0.4%, which is lower than the previous year's growth of 1.3% and the initial budget target of 0.1% [4][5][26] - Monthly improvements in revenue are observed, with April's revenue growth turning positive at 1.9%. The revenue completion rate for the first four months was 36.7%, slightly below the average of the past five years [4][6] - Government expenditure has exceeded targets, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6% for the first four months, surpassing the budget target of 4.4%. The expenditure completion rate reached 31.5%, the highest since 2020 [6][9] Group 2 - The narrow fiscal deficit for the first four months reached 1.3 trillion yuan, marking a historical high for the same period, with a usage rate of 16.8%, significantly above the average of 12% over the past five years [13][14] - The issuance of government bonds has been accelerated, contributing to a rapid usage of the narrow deficit. The net financing of ordinary government bonds reached 1.9 trillion yuan, accounting for 39.4% of the annual central deficit target [14][18] - Special bonds have seen a slower issuance pace, with a completion rate of 37.1% for the first five months, which is higher than the previous year but lower than the levels seen in 2022 and 2023 [18][19] Group 3 - There is a potential need for incremental support, with a projected revenue gap of approximately 550 billion yuan for 2025. If revenue performance does not improve, there may be a possibility of increasing government debt quotas [3][26] - Special bonds are expected to be a focus for fiscal efforts in the second half of the year, with an anticipated increase in funds for land reserves, which could alleviate liquidity pressures for real estate companies [27][31] - New policy financial tools are expected to be implemented in the second half of the year, aimed at supporting investment in urban renewal and various infrastructure projects [33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On May 15, 2025, the central bank announced the financial statistics for April 2025. M2 increased by 8.00% year - on - year, M1 increased by 1.50% year - on - year. The stock of social financing scale at the end of April 2025 increased by 8.7% year - on - year, and the cumulative increase in social financing scale in the first four months was 16.34 trillion yuan, 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1][12]. - The accelerated implementation of existing fiscal policies and government financing supported the growth of April's social financing data. The year - on - year growth rate of social financing in April was 8.70%, and the initial value of new social financing was 115.85 billion yuan. Government bond net financing in April was 97.62 billion yuan, 106.99 billion yuan more than the same period last year [2][13]. - The low base and capital re - flow drove the rebound of M2 growth. At the end of April, the year - on - year growth rate of M2 rebounded by 1.0 percentage point compared with the previous value. The year - on - year growth rate of M1 was 0.1 percentage point lower than the previous value, indicating weak corporate investment willingness [3][23]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Government Financing Supports the Stable Growth of Social Financing - The implementation of existing fiscal policies accelerated, and government financing supported the significant rebound of April's social financing data. The year - on - year growth rate of social financing in April was 8.70%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous value. The initial value of new social financing was 115.85 billion yuan, 135.72 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Government bond net financing in April was 97.62 billion yuan, 106.99 billion yuan more than the same period last year [13]. - Credit in the social financing caliber in April was weak. New RMB loans were 8.44 billion yuan, 24.65 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Direct financing: corporate bond net financing increased by 23.4 billion yuan in April, 6.33 billion yuan more than the same period last year; non - financial enterprise domestic stock financing was 3.92 billion yuan, 2.06 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Non - standard financing: new non - standard financing decreased by 28.73 billion yuan in April, 13.86 billion yuan less than the same period last year [13]. - New RMB loans in the financial institution caliber in April were 28 billion yuan, 45 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Corporate department: corporate loans increased by 61 billion yuan, 25 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Resident department: resident loans decreased by 52.16 billion yuan, 5 billion yuan more than the same period last year [2][14]. 3.2 Low Base and Capital Re - flow Drive the Rebound of M2 Growth - At the end of April, M2 increased by 8.00% year - on - year, up 1.0 percentage point from the previous value. The low base caused by the rectification of "manual interest compensation" and "squeezing water" in financial data last year, combined with the acceleration of deposit creation by government financing and the reduction of capital re - flow to wealth management products, pushed up the year - on - year growth rate of M2. M1 increased by 1.50% year - on - year, 0.1 percentage point lower than the previous value, indicating that corporate investment willingness needs to be improved. The M1 - M2 gap was negative, and the absolute value widened to 6.50 pct [23]. - In terms of deposit structure, non - bank deposits increased significantly year - on - year. Household deposits decreased by 139 billion yuan in April, 46 billion yuan less than the same period last year; non - financial enterprise deposits decreased by 132.97 billion yuan, 54.28 billion yuan less than the same period last year; non - banking financial institution deposits increased by 157.1 billion yuan, 190.1 billion yuan more than the same period last year; fiscal deposits increased by 37.1 billion yuan, 27.29 billion yuan more than the same period last year [3][23]. 3.3 Investment Advice - Credit supply needs to pick up. The social financing data in April verified the policy effect of the front - loaded fiscal policy. Government bonds became the core source of increment, and the credit structure may reflect the strengthened support for key areas of the real economy. Although the credit growth rate may be disturbed by debt replacement in the short term, the supporting role of finance in the economy will continue to appear under the synergistic effect of policies [4][30]. - April is a traditional "low - credit month", and combined with the uncertainty of foreign trade, credit demand may be under pressure in the short term. However, a package of financial policies introduced in May is expected to boost confidence. In the future, attention should be paid to the issuance rhythm of special treasury bonds and the marginal impact of changes in the foreign trade environment on the demand side. The central bank's monetary policy focus has shifted from "responding to shocks" to "structural breakthroughs" [4][30]. - There is adjustment pressure in the short - term bond market, and the yield curve of bonds becomes steeper. It is recommended that investors grasp the rhythm, trading accounts increase positions on adjustments, and allocation accounts pay attention to the opportunity to intervene when the supply of local bonds increases [4][30].