Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury yields fell significantly as investors expect the Federal Reserve to implement larger rate cuts to support a slowing job market [1][2] - The August non-farm payroll report indicated a stagnation in the labor market for four consecutive months, with a rare downward revision of June's data showing a net decrease in jobs [1] - Market expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut in September have risen to 10.2%, compared to 0% the previous day, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut stands at 89.7% [1] Group 2 - The weak job market has reignited concerns about potential recession risks, with investors adjusting their growth and earnings expectations [2][3] - Despite initial optimism in the market, the weak data led to a reassessment of corporate earnings and economic growth prospects [3] - Short-term volatility is expected, but support from rate cuts and fiscal policies may provide upward momentum for the stock market by 2026 [2][3]

摩根大通(JPM.US)首席执行官戴蒙周一在该行于纽约举行的年度投资者日上发出警告称，市场和央行 正在低估美国创纪录财政赤字、贸易关税及地缘政治紧张局势所带来的风险。 戴蒙表示，当前股市自4月低点反弹，投资者信心有所恢复，但这种乐观情绪并未充分反映经济面临的 真实风险。"我们存在巨额财政赤字；而央行几乎表现得过于安逸，"他说道，"你们都认为他们能掌控 局势，而我并不这么认为。" 他进一步指出，"很多人现在感觉良好，是因为你们还没有真正感受到关税的威力。市场先跌10%，又 涨了回来，这种表现显示出了一种惊人的自满情绪。" 他的发言正值穆迪上周五下调美国信用评级，引发市场对债务风险的重新评估。而在过去几个月中，特 朗普政府的贸易政策也引发了市场对通胀上升和经济放缓的担忧。 戴蒙还警告称，市场目前对标普500指数企业的盈利预期过于乐观。他预计，随着企业在不确定性下削 减或撤回业绩指引，这些盈利预测将进一步下降。 "年初大家预测的盈利增长是12%左右，而六个月后可能会降到0%，"戴蒙说。"一旦盈利预期下调，市 盈率(PE)也会下降，股价自然会受到影响。" 他还表示，市场对滞涨(即经济停滞与通胀并存)的可能性估计过低， ...