2024年7月31日，日本央行将0%至0.1%的政策利率调整至0.25%。 接下来的三个交易日（8月1日、8月2日、8月5日）日经225指数连续大跌，特别是8月5日，日经225指数 大跌12.4%，一度熔断，创历史最大单日跌幅。 也顺便带崩了全球股市。 美联储降息刚落地，日本央行加息又要来了。 12月19日，日本央行即将公布年内最后一次利率决议，市场普遍预期政策利率将从当前的0.5%上调25 个基点至0.75%。 这可能是造成近期全球股市特别是亚太市场显著波动的重要因素。 日本央行加息关乎到全球市场的流动性。 原因在于日本长期低息，甚至一度负利率，这催生了大量的"套息交易"——在低利率的日本借低息日 元，再兑换成美元、欧元去投资欧美股市、债市、新兴市场等。 因此，若日本进入加息周期（利率上升、日元升值），套息交易资金（尤其是高杠杆投资者）将遭遇利 率和汇率双杀，迫使部分资金逆转套息交易，换回日元，进而导致美元乃至全球流动性的收紧。 可能很多人还对日本央行去年的那次加息"黑天鹅"记忆犹新。 日经225指数走势 数 据来源：Wind 不过，对于这一次日本央行加息或许不用过于担心。 和2024年7月31日那次加息相 ...

集团 21世纪经济报道 公司混合类公募期财 近一年业绩榜单 ( 投资間期1-3年 | 10 मुव | 产品名称 | 净值增 官出人 长率 | 最大回撤 | 年化波动 网 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 宁赢个股臻选混合类开放 | 式理财产品1号(最短持有 宁银理财 22.06% 7.50% | | 7.79% | | | 2年) | | | | | | 宁赢个股臻选混合类开放 式理财产品2号(最短持有 3年) | 宁银理财 20.88% | 15.04% | 13.70% | | | 宁赢平衡增利混合类开放 式理财2号(含短信有500 | 宁银理财 19.70% | 6.42% | 7.76% | | | R | | | | | 4 | 出當市出席者所有意圖 | 宁银理财 18.60% | 9.48% | 10.87% | | | 财1号(最短持有2年) | | | | | 5 | 宁赢长三角发展混合类理 | 宁银理财 18.20% 7.79% | | 8.55% | | | 财产品(最短接有18个月) | | | | 宁银理财"宁赢个股臻选混合类开放式理财产品2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a significant decline this week, influenced by both overseas market trends and the need for internal adjustment after a substantial rise earlier this year [1][8]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index opened at 3988.56 points and fell sharply, closing at 3834.89 points on Friday, down 96 points or 2.45% for the day. The weekly decline was 155 points, representing a 3.9% drop [4]. - The Shenzhen Component Index opened at 13200.54 points and closed at 12538.07 points on Friday, with a daily drop of 3.41% and a weekly decline of 5.13% [4]. - The ChiNext Index opened at 3097.34 points and fell 4.02% on Friday, closing at 2920.08 points, marking a weekly decline of 6.15% [6]. - The STAR 50 Index dropped 5.54% this week, while the North Star 50 Index saw a significant decline of 9% [8]. Causes of Decline - The decline in A-shares was partly due to the performance of overseas markets, with the South Korean market down over 3% and the Japanese market down over 2%. The U.S. market also showed a continuous decline, with the Nasdaq Index down over 3% as of Thursday [8]. - The A-share market's lack of independence in this downturn indicates significant profit-taking pressure from the recent rally, which saw the Shanghai Composite Index rise nearly 1000 points from a low of 3040.69 to a high of 4034.08 [8][9]. Adjustment Phase - Following a six-month period of continuous growth, the market has entered an adjustment phase, which is considered normal after such substantial gains. The STAR 50 Index has been in a correction for seven weeks, with a total decline of about 20% from its peak [8][10]. - The Shanghai Composite Index had previously shown strength without significant corrections, but the recent downturn reflects a shift in market dynamics, with both dividend stocks and technology stocks declining simultaneously [9].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant adjustment, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3900 points and a decline exceeding 2% during the morning session [4][5] - The Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and STAR Market 50 Index also saw declines of over 3% [5] - Major sectors such as comprehensive, non-ferrous metals, electric equipment, and basic chemicals faced declines exceeding 4% [5] - The lithium mining sector suffered a sharp drop, with a decline of over 7%, leading to a wave of stocks hitting the daily limit down [5] Agricultural Sector Performance - Despite the overall market downturn, agricultural stocks showed resilience, with companies like QiuLe Seed Industry and ShenNong Seed Industry seeing intraday gains exceeding 10% [6] New Stock Listing - A new stock, Dapeng Industrial, was listed today, experiencing a remarkable intraday increase of over 800%, closing with a gain of 664.56% at midday [7][8] - Dapeng Industrial specializes in precision cleaning equipment for the automotive powertrain and new energy systems, aligning with the trend of high-quality development in China's manufacturing sector [10]

Core Viewpoint - Global stock markets have entered a correction phase, with major indices in the US and Europe declining, leading to a cautious sentiment in emerging markets. This backdrop has resulted in a similar adjustment in the A-share market, where the Shanghai Composite Index briefly reached a ten-year high before falling back below the 4000-point mark, indicating a shift to a "high-level fluctuation and weakening" phase [1]. Market Structure on Friday - The market reached a high of approximately 4030 points, marking a ten-year peak, but subsequently fell back, closing below 4000 points. The daily candlestick formed a "small bearish line with a long upper shadow," indicating significant selling pressure in the 4000-4030 range and a weakening bullish sentiment [2]. - Approximately 3300 stocks declined, while fewer than 2000 stocks rose, highlighting a structural market condition where the index's new high corresponds with a majority of stocks declining [3]. - Around 89 stocks hit the daily limit up, indicating that while there are still hotspots, the overall profit-making effect is limited to a few strong themes and leading stocks [4]. - Sectors such as pharmaceuticals, forestry, certain electrical appliances, and coking coal showed structural strength, while semiconductors and some consumer sectors experienced notable pullbacks, reflecting rapid sector rotation and a lack of solid main lines [5][6]. Volume and Moving Averages - Trading volume fell below 2 trillion, significantly lower than the volume levels observed when the index previously broke through 4000 points [7]. - The high-level volume contraction indicates insufficient willingness for new capital to enter the market, with more existing funds engaged in trading, leading to a cooling of short-term bullish expectations [8]. - The index closed below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, signaling a clear short-term trend weakening. The breach of these averages typically indicates a transition from a strong upward trend to a phase of adjustment or consolidation [11]. Potential Market Scenarios for Monday - Two probable scenarios for Monday's market performance are outlined: 1. **Scenario One**: A low open followed by a rebound, potentially closing with a small bullish line if blue-chip stocks stabilize and high-growth sectors see capital inflow [13][14]. 2. **Scenario Two**: A low open followed by continued weak fluctuations, possibly closing with a small bearish line if previous strong sectors lack sustained capital support [16][18]. Defensive Strategies - Investors are advised to maintain a defensive posture, controlling overall positions to around 50% or lower, especially as the index fluctuates around the 4000-point mark [20]. - Focus on reducing exposure to high-flying stocks that have moved far from their moving averages, while considering defensive sectors with solid fundamentals and stable cash flows [22]. - The current high-level fluctuation phase suggests avoiding aggressive trading and instead waiting for clearer market direction before increasing positions [23].

Core Viewpoint - The stock market's upward trend is due for a pause as risk appetite is cooling down across the board [1] Group 1 - Jason Wong, a senior market strategist at BNZ, indicates that the market has been on a one-sided rise for some time [1] - The recent statements from the Federal Reserve may serve as a warning that the path of U.S. monetary easing is not guaranteed to remain unchanged [1] - An adjustment in the market is overdue according to Wong [1]

Market Performance - Government bond futures opened lower but closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.34%, having previously dropped by 0.65% during the day. The 10-year main contract increased by 0.11%, after a drop of 0.21%, while the 5-year and 2-year main contracts rose by 0.10% and 0.02%, respectively [1] - The yield on the 10-year government bond "25附息国债11" decreased by 0.9 basis points to 1.7520%, while the yield on the 30-year bond "25超长特别国债02" fell by 1.15 basis points to 2.1025%. Conversely, the yield on the 2-year bond "25附息国债17" increased by 0.25 basis points to 1.49% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a fixed-rate reverse repurchase operation of 91 billion yuan for 7-day terms on October 14, with an operation rate of 1.40%. The total bid and awarded amount was 91 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 91 billion yuan for the day [2] - The interbank market remains flush with liquidity, with overnight repurchase rates hovering around 1.31%. Non-bank institutions are borrowing overnight against credit bonds at rates as low as 1.4% [2] - The central bank also conducted a 600 billion yuan 6-month reverse repurchase operation, contributing to a total net injection of 400 billion yuan in reverse repos for the month, indicating a commitment to maintaining liquidity [2] Operational Suggestions - Recent adjustments in the stock market, combined with liquidity easing and uncertainties in US-China trade relations, have driven a rebound in the bond market. The future trajectory of the bond market remains uncertain, with attention needed on the new fund redemption fee regulations and changes in market risk appetite [3] - The current liquidity environment and the normalization of the yield curve are expected to limit the extent of declines in long-term bonds. If the yield on the 10-year government bond rises above 1.8%, there may be renewed value in allocation, while yields around 1.75% and 1.7% could face resistance [3] - Short-term bonds are expected to continue fluctuating within a range, with the T2512 contract likely maintaining a range of 107.4 to 108.3, suggesting a wait-and-see approach for potential adjustment opportunities [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury yields fell significantly as investors expect the Federal Reserve to implement larger rate cuts to support a slowing job market [1][2] - The August non-farm payroll report indicated a stagnation in the labor market for four consecutive months, with a rare downward revision of June's data showing a net decrease in jobs [1] - Market expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut in September have risen to 10.2%, compared to 0% the previous day, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut stands at 89.7% [1] Group 2 - The weak job market has reignited concerns about potential recession risks, with investors adjusting their growth and earnings expectations [2][3] - Despite initial optimism in the market, the weak data led to a reassessment of corporate earnings and economic growth prospects [3] - Short-term volatility is expected, but support from rate cuts and fiscal policies may provide upward momentum for the stock market by 2026 [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street investment institutions are exiting or shorting high-priced corporate credit assets due to expectations of a significant correction in the global corporate credit market, influenced by weak non-farm payroll data indicating a slowdown in U.S. economic growth [1][6][10] Group 1: Corporate Credit Market Dynamics - The corporate credit spread is nearing a 27-year low, suggesting that corporate bonds are overpriced relative to the economic recession risk [1][4] - The credit market is currently pricing in an overly optimistic economic scenario, often referred to as the "Goldilocks" economy, which is not aligned with the more cautious growth forecasts from official sources [4][13] - Recent data shows that the spread for investment-grade bonds has tightened to approximately 78 basis points, the tightest since November of the previous year, indicating a potential mispricing in the credit market [6][10] Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Market Reactions - Global asset management firms and major investment banks are adopting a defensive stance, with some reducing exposure to cash bonds and shorting high-yield bonds [4][5] - There is a notable increase in demand for financial products that bet against indices or junk bonds, indicating a shift in institutional investor sentiment towards hedging credit risk [9][10] - Analysts suggest that the corporate credit market often leads the stock market, with historical precedents showing that credit market downturns typically precede declines in equity markets [6][9] Group 3: Economic Growth Expectations - Current credit spreads imply a global growth forecast of nearly 5%, which is significantly higher than the International Monetary Fund's estimate of around 3% for the year [13] - The probability of the U.S. entering a recession is estimated at about 40%, raising concerns about the potential for increased risk across major global economies [13] - High-yield bonds, which are crucial to economically significant sectors, are seen as particularly vulnerable to corrections, which could subsequently impact the stock market [10][13]

Group 1 - Analysts believe that the Indian stock market will face adjustment pressure due to the U.S. imposing an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports, raising the total tariff rate to 50% [1][4] - The sectors most affected include oil, pharmaceuticals, textiles, footwear, and jewelry, as these industries are closely tied to U.S. trade [1][6] - Foreign investors sold $2 billion worth of Indian stocks in July and an additional $900 million in August, indicating a trend of capital outflow amid rising uncertainties [4][5] Group 2 - The Indian economy has approximately 20% of its export goods (2% of GDP) directed towards the U.S., making it vulnerable to the new tariffs [6] - The pharmaceutical sector has seen significant declines, with the NSE Nifty pharmaceutical index breaking key technical support levels, indicating potential further declines [7] - Companies like Reliance Industries may face pressure if India succumbs to U.S. demands to limit oil purchases from Russia, which could impact refining margins [6]