分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020003 suixp@ctsec.com 核心观点 ❖ 联储议息会议维持利率不变、决议措辞偏鹰，但鲍威尔讲话基调温和。本次会 议利率按兵不动符合预期，决议对经济和就业的评估更乐观，但两位理事投 出反对票倾向降息。鲍威尔会后承认通胀上行风险和就业下行风险都有所回 落，淡化加息可能。短期内美债收益率曲线或呈现熊陡，美元指数维持弱势震 荡。预计短期内 10 年美债震荡区间可能在 4%~4.4%，美元指数震荡区间可 能在 96~101。人民币汇率在弱美元和结汇潮下有加速升值趋势，国内债市 "以我为主"，交易盘动能恢复，建议维持多头思维。 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 决议偏鹰，发布会温和 ——美联储 1 月议息会议点评 联系人 陆星辰 luxc@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《利率 | 再探超长债供需》 2026- 01-28 2. 《利率｜开年机构行为的五点关注》 2026-01-27 3. 《信用 | 二永债可以继续拉久期吗？》 2026-01-26 证券研究报 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates again in September, with recent data indicating that tariffs impact economic growth before affecting inflation [1][2] - The current market sentiment is characterized by a strategy of "Sell White House and buy Nasdaq 100," reflecting a preference for tech stocks amid uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies [3] - The U.S. stock market has reached new highs, driven by strong Q1 earnings in tech stocks and rising expectations for Fed rate cuts, despite a weakening dollar index [3] Group 2 - Germany plans to issue an additional €19 billion in debt in Q3 to support defense and infrastructure spending, aligning with NATO's commitment to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035 [4] - The European Union is undergoing a significant fiscal expansion, with a clear path for increased spending in the second half of the year, particularly in the aerospace and defense sectors [4] Group 3 - Key upcoming events to watch include U.S. June non-farm payroll data, ISM PMI, and progress on OBBBA legislation [5]