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中信证券:美股和美元分道而驰
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-07-01 00:57
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates again in September, with recent data indicating that tariffs impact economic growth before affecting inflation [1][2] - The current market sentiment is characterized by a strategy of "Sell White House and buy Nasdaq 100," reflecting a preference for tech stocks amid uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies [3] - The U.S. stock market has reached new highs, driven by strong Q1 earnings in tech stocks and rising expectations for Fed rate cuts, despite a weakening dollar index [3] Group 2 - Germany plans to issue an additional €19 billion in debt in Q3 to support defense and infrastructure spending, aligning with NATO's commitment to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035 [4] - The European Union is undergoing a significant fiscal expansion, with a clear path for increased spending in the second half of the year, particularly in the aerospace and defense sectors [4] Group 3 - Key upcoming events to watch include U.S. June non-farm payroll data, ISM PMI, and progress on OBBBA legislation [5]