因势而动，精耕个券 - 2026 年转债策略展望 20251201 摘要 2025 年双低指数表现不佳，受偏股标的青睐及 2024 年涨幅影响。高 评级大盘转债规模快速下降，因再融资政策收紧，银行转债发行受阻。 ETF 规模迅速增加，配置工具呈现指数化特征，转债估值偏向股市化， 长期维持高位。 截至 2025 年 11 月底，可转债 ETF 规模达 620,682 亿，占转债市场 12.5%，较年初增长超 50%。其透明、低费率、灵活交易及分散风险的 特性，使其成为险资、年金社保等机构的重要配置工具，并部分替代了 可转债直投。 预计 2026 年转债供给压力持续，虽预案充足，但需抵消强赎退市规模。 大股东发新券意愿强烈，因融资成本降低。中小盘结构主导下波动或加 大，但固收配置需求支撑估值，预计不会出现大幅下滑。 对 2026 年 A 股市场持乐观态度，基于中国经济有望探底回升、经济结 构调整和深化改革提升确定性，以及 2025 年二三季度全 A ROE 企稳回 升。稳增长政策推动经济反弹，低利率促储蓄向权益市场转移。 预计 2026 年转债市场相对乐观，政策红利和低利率支撑估值，供需紧 平衡格局强化。存量转债 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the need to shift from a broad market beta approach to a more refined selection of convertible bonds, focusing on four main themes: technology growth, energy-driven investments, anti-involution, and low-volatility bottom positions [1] - In 2025, the convertible bond market showed a strong performance with the CSI Convertible Bond Index achieving a cumulative increase of 16.50%, while the high-price low-premium index surged by 21.48% [7][16] - The report identifies three significant trends in the convertible bond market for 2025: the scarcity of bottom-position convertible bonds, the indexation of allocation tools, and a valuation logic that is increasingly equity-oriented [16][17] Group 2 - The supply of convertible bonds is expected to remain under pressure, with a notable decline in the total outstanding amount, which decreased by 22.49% compared to the beginning of the year [17][24] - The report forecasts that the valuation of convertible bonds will maintain a high level in 2026, supported by optimistic expectations for the equity market, particularly due to policy incentives and ongoing industrial policies in technology and high-end manufacturing [17][36] - The report suggests that the convertible bond market will continue to face challenges due to ongoing contraction, with large, high-rated, and highly liquid convertible bonds enjoying liquidity premiums due to their scarcity [17][20] Group 3 - The report highlights the importance of convertible bond ETFs as a growing allocation tool for institutional investors, with the market size reaching 68.2 billion yuan, accounting for 12.5% of the total convertible bond market [12][31] - The investment logic in the convertible bond market has shifted from a focus on debt protection to an emphasis on equity upside, as indicated by the rising median prices and increased conversion premium rates [16][34] - The report outlines three strategic focuses for 2026: selecting convertible bonds that are not subject to early redemption, strategically participating in new bond issuance windows, and identifying bonds with strong conversion intentions [17][36]

报告导读： 展望 2026 年，可转债市场投资需摒弃过去依赖市场整体贝塔的粗放思路，转 向精研个券价值的精细化择券，聚焦于科技成长、能源驱动、反内卷和低波底仓四大主 线。 2025 年，可转债市场在供需紧平衡与权益市场带动下走强。 中证转债指数年内累计涨幅达 16.50% 。高价低溢价率指数凭借其突出的股性弹性涨幅居前， 累计上涨 21.48% ，大幅领先其他策略指数；低价转债则依托价格修复和估值拉升，实现 17.05% 的稳健收益，而双低指数整体表现相对乏力，累计涨幅为 12.23% ，跑输中证转债指数。 2025 年的转债市场发展呈现三个显著特点：底仓转债稀缺化、配置工具指数化以及估值逻辑偏股化。 牛市催化下转债缩量显著，供需偏紧或加剧。 转债较年初规模下行 22.49% ，规模快速下降的主要原因一是发行预案减少；二是随着权益市场快速上行，强 赎退市标的增加。供给端来看，转债规模大概率持续承压。在不考虑强赎的背景下，转债的供给和到期规模依然有显著矛盾。需求端来看，转债仍然是固收 + 的重要配置方向。 展望 2026 年，我们认为转债市场估值将维持高位， 2026 年转债最主要的支撑来自于对权益市场的偏乐观 ...