Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the recent surge in the convertible bond market is driven by three main factors: strong performance in the equity market, historically low bond yields, and tight supply due to refinancing regulations [1] - The convertible bond market can be viewed as a combination of ordinary bonds and stock call options, providing investors with both fixed income and potential capital appreciation [1][2] - The current support for the convertible bond market is heavily reliant on the equity market's performance, suggesting that if the equity market continues to perform well, convertible bonds may also exhibit upward momentum [1][2] Group 2 - Investors are cautioned against the misconception that high-priced convertible bonds always have downside protection, as their price movements may closely follow the underlying stocks [2] - For high-risk investors, low premium, high elasticity convertible bonds are recommended to construct a balanced investment portfolio aimed at capturing excess returns [2] - The index for convertible bonds and exchangeable bonds is based on a large sample size from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, using a market capitalization-weighted method to balance index volatility [3]

Core Viewpoint - The convertible bond market has reached new highs, with average prices surpassing 124 yuan, while theoretical constraints on convertible bond pricing may limit future price increases [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 8, the convertible bond index has risen by 8.28% since the beginning of the year, with an average closing price of 124.00 yuan, placing it in the 93rd percentile since 2020 [1]. - The median closing price is 125.78 yuan, also in the 93rd percentile since 2020, indicating a significant increase in bond prices [1]. - The proportion of low-priced convertible bonds (below 110 yuan) has decreased to 3.63%, reflecting a tightening supply of affordable options [1]. Group 2: Valuation and Market Dynamics - The average parity of convertible bonds is 94.72 yuan, with an average conversion premium of 44.46%, suggesting a significant elevation in current valuations compared to historical levels [2]. - Three scenarios for the equity market's future are proposed: continued upward movement leading to redemptions of bank and brokerage bonds, a sideways market prompting profit-taking, and a downward trend resulting in valuation declines for high-premium bonds [2]. - The short-term outlook suggests a potential consolidation in the equity market, with a focus on structural opportunities in convertible bonds, particularly through low-price and non-redeemable strategies [2]. Group 3: Challenges and Strategies - Current challenges in selecting convertible bonds include a scarcity of low-priced options, high valuations, and the equity market being at a cyclical peak [3]. - Suggested strategies to navigate these challenges include focusing on sectors with strong earnings potential, such as electronics and semiconductors, and identifying non-redeemable bonds that may offer premium opportunities [3]. - The approach also emphasizes finding price or valuation gaps to mitigate the impact of high pricing in the current market [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that convertible bonds with strong underlying stocks and high volatility are the most cost-effective options in the current market environment [2][17] - The market saw a significant increase in the convertible bond index, with a weekly rise of 2.08% and an average price increase of 4.54% [2][9] - The average conversion premium across different price ranges showed varied changes, indicating a shift in market sentiment and valuation [9][18] Group 2 - The report suggests that investors should avoid low-priced strategies in the convertible bond market and focus on high-volatility, strong underlying stocks for better returns [2][17] - It highlights the importance of adjusting positions based on risk tolerance, recommending a shift to lower volatility sectors for those with high withdrawal requirements [2][17] - The analysis indicates that the convertible bond market still has incremental capital inflow, benefiting from the profit-taking effect observed at the end of June [2][17]

证券研究报告 | 固定收益点评 2025 年 06 月 11 日 固定收益点评 [Table_Main] 证券分析师 吕品 资格编号：S0120524050005 邮箱：lvpin＠tebon.com.cn 宋康泰 资格编号：S0120524060003 邮箱：songkt＠tebon.com.cn 金晓溪 资格编号：S0120524110002 邮箱：jinxx＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 固定收益点评 以逸待劳，重视负债端变化 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 最后，我们建议转债品种"以逸待劳"，在权益市场尤其是中小盘出现拐点前继续寻 找结构性机会，同时关注负债端变化，对部分高位品种做适度止盈。考虑到当前时点 距离半年业绩公告期上有 2-3 周交易时间，且转债供需仍处错位过程，当前风格仍建 议弹性>债性。结构上从三个策略出发： （1）期权价值策略下，科技与消费都是技术进步以及优质供给能催生新需求并迸发 了产业趋势。尽管短期有海外不确定性扰动，科技接力消费或成为下半年胜负手，分 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 上周转债市场整体表现积极，指数走出连续上行过程。整体层面，中证 ...

平衡型策略跟住指数，等待冲击带来的配置机会 —— 5 月转债投资策略与关注个券 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 05 月 04 日 [李一爽 Table_ First固定Author 收益]首席分析师 执业编号：S1500520050002 联系电话：+86 18817583889 邮 箱：liyishuang@cindasc.com 张 弛 固定收益分析师 执业编号：S1500524090002 联系电话：+86 18817872149 邮 箱：zhangchi3@cindasc.com 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 证券研究报告 债券研究 [T债券able_ReportType] 专题 | ] [Table_A 李一爽 uthor固定收益 首席分析师 | | | --- | --- | | 执业编号：S1500520050002 | | | 联系电话：+86 18817583889 | | | 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com | 邮 | 张 弛 固定收益分析师 执业编号：S1500524090002 联系电话：+ ...