图：2021年1月至2026年1月百城二手住宅价格及环比变化 | 合肥 | 5371 | 32.5% | 51.3 | 29.0% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上海 | 20116 | 31.9% | 167.0 | 23.5% | | 西安 | 8058 | 29.5% | 82.5 | 22.2% | | 东莞 | 3043 | 28.8% | 33.7 | 23% | | 大连 | 1763 | 27.4% | 15.4 | 26.2% | | 南昌 | 2536 | 27.2% | 26.6 | 25.3% | | 常州 | 3007 | 26.2% | 32.9 | 21.4% | | 青岛 | 4720 | 25.3% | 48.9 | 24.8% | | 惠州 | 3901 | 21.3% | | 44.8 故 17.5% | | 福州 | 2647 | 19.8% | 26.9 | 14.6% | | 武汉 | 9005 | 19.0% C | 92.8 | 17.0% | | 南京 | 7278 | 17.3% | 66.2 | 13.3% | | ...

去年年底，美国新建住宅销售回升，开发商大量提供销售优惠以及融资成本小幅下降，均提振了购房需 求。 美国政府周五公布的数据显示，11月新建单户型住宅销量跃升，12月折合年率为74.5万套。上述数据此 前因去年秋季联邦政府停摆而推迟发布。彭博调查的经济学家此前预计12月销量为73万套。 这份报告提供了去年最后两个月的相关数据，报告显示10月至11月的增长为2022年8月以来最大。 12月销售价格中值同比下跌2%，至41.44万美元。2025年全年，仅有三个月房价未出现同比下滑。 尽管新建住宅仅占全美房屋销售总量的15%左右，但2025年年底的强劲表现为整体表现低迷的房地产市 场带来积极信号。 责任编辑：李桐 去年年底，美国新建住宅销售回升，开发商大量提供销售优惠以及融资成本小幅下降，均提振了购房需 求。 美国政府周五公布的数据显示，11月新建单户型住宅销量跃升，12月折合年率为74.5万套。上述数据此 前因去年秋季联邦政府停摆而推迟发布。彭博调查的经济学家此前预计12月销量为73万套。 这份报告提供了去年最后两个月的相关数据，报告显示10月至11月的增长为2022年8月以来最大。 12月销售价格中值同比下跌2%， ...

Core Insights - In January, the average price of new residential properties in 100 cities across the country was approximately 17,100 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.18% [1] - Out of the 100 cities, 24 experienced a month-on-month price increase, while 72 saw a decrease, and 4 remained unchanged [1] - Year-on-year, the average price of new residential properties increased by 2.52% [1] - The average price of second-hand residential properties in the same 100 cities was 12,900 yuan per square meter, showing a month-on-month decline of 0.85%, although the decline was narrower by 0.12 percentage points compared to the previous month [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the real estate industry. Core Insights - The average price of new residential properties in 100 cities in December was 17,084 RMB/square meter, with a month-on-month increase of 0.28% and a year-on-year increase of 2.58% [3][8] - The average price of second-hand residential properties in the same cities was 13,016 RMB/square meter, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.97% and a year-on-year decrease of 8.36% [3][12] - The average rental price in 50 cities was 34.16 RMB/square meter/month, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.60% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.62% [3][17] Market Performance - In December, new residential prices saw structural increases in cities like Shenzhen, Beijing, and Shanghai, while the overall market remains in a bottoming phase [5][6] - The second-hand housing market continues to experience high listing volumes, with significant month-on-month price declines [5] - The rental market is in a traditional off-season, with low demand and continued price declines in rental properties [5] Policy Developments - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized stabilizing the real estate market and implementing city-specific policies to control inventory and improve supply [4] - Recent policy changes include reducing the value-added tax on personal housing sales and easing purchase restrictions for non-local residents and families with multiple children in cities like Beijing and Shanghai [4] - The government aims to accelerate the construction of affordable housing and improve the housing provident fund system [4][6] Price Index Analysis - In December, 26 cities experienced an increase in new residential prices, while 68 cities saw declines [9] - The average price of new residential properties in first-tier cities increased by 0.81% month-on-month, while second-tier cities saw a 0.16% increase [8] - For second-hand properties, 100 cities reported a uniform price decline, with 27 cities experiencing declines exceeding 1% [13] Future Outlook - The year 2026 is expected to be crucial for stabilizing the real estate market, with policies likely to be implemented to optimize restrictions in core cities and promote the acquisition of existing properties [6] - The report forecasts a 6.2% year-on-year decrease in new residential sales area in 2026, with price performance expected to remain differentiated [6]

Group 1: Housing Policies and Developments - Beijing has officially released its 2025 third batch of affordable housing construction and collection plans, which includes 9 new projects with 3,241 units, 1 collection project with 123 units, and 2 completed projects with 1,857 units [1] - In 2025, Beijing aims to construct approximately 67,000 rental housing units, achieving 135% of its annual target of 50,000 units, and complete nearly 100,000 units of various types of affordable housing, reaching 125% of its annual target of 80,000 units [1] Group 2: Mortgage Rate Adjustments - Shanghai's housing provident fund management center announced a reduction in the interest rates for outstanding personal housing provident fund loans, effective from January 1, 2026, with rates for first-time homebuyers set at 2.1% for loans under 5 years and 2.6% for loans over 5 years [2] - The adjusted rates for second-time homebuyers will be 2.525% for loans under 5 years and 3.075% for loans over 5 years, with the changes applied automatically without borrower applications [2] Group 3: Real Estate Market Trends - According to the China Index Academy, the total land acquisition amount for the top 100 enterprises in 2025 is projected to reach 964 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [4] - The land acquisition trend shows a "high at the beginning and low at the end" pattern, with a significant increase of over 30% in the first three quarters, followed by a decrease in the fourth quarter due to reduced land auction activities [4] - The top ten enterprises in land acquisition are predominantly state-owned enterprises, although private real estate companies are showing increasing enthusiasm, with several private firms making it into the top 30 by acquisition amount [4] Group 4: Housing Price Trends - The average price of newly built residential properties in 100 cities is expected to rise by 2.58% in 2025, with quarterly increases of 0.52%, 0.64%, and 0.47% in the first three quarters [5] - In the fourth quarter, the accelerated market entry of high-end properties in core cities contributed to a cumulative price increase of 0.93% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China shows a mixed trend with new housing prices increasing while second-hand housing prices are declining, indicating potential instability in the market [1][3][5]. Group 1: New Housing Market - In December 2025, the average price of newly built residential properties in 100 cities was 17,084 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.28% and a year-on-year increase of 2.58% [1]. - The recent increase in new housing prices is attributed to previous significant declines, which may not indicate a genuine recovery in market sentiment [5][6]. Group 2: Second-Hand Housing Market - The average price of second-hand residential properties in December 2025 was 13,016 yuan per square meter, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.97% and a year-on-year decrease of 8.36% [1]. - The decline in second-hand housing prices is more significant than the increase in new housing prices, suggesting that demand for improved living conditions is still lacking [5][6]. - The stability of the real estate market is more accurately reflected by the second-hand housing prices, as they indicate market activity and consumer sentiment more effectively than new housing prices [3][8]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The current real estate market is still in an overall downward trend, particularly in the second-hand housing sector, due to insufficient demand for improved living conditions and unstable income levels [8]. - Optimistically, it is projected that by mid-2026, second-hand housing prices may stabilize and potentially increase by around 2%, which could enhance market activity by 3-5% [10].

Core Viewpoint - The data from the China Index Academy indicates that the average price of newly built residential properties in 100 cities is projected to increase by 2.58% in 2025, with a notable acceleration in the fourth quarter due to the introduction of high-end properties in key cities [1] Summary by Category Price Trends - In the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative price increases were 0.52%, 0.64%, and 0.47% respectively [1] - The fourth quarter saw a cumulative price increase of 0.93%, driven by the faster market entry of high-end properties in major cities [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the real estate industry. Core Insights - In November, the average price of new residential properties in 100 cities increased by 0.37% month-on-month and 2.68% year-on-year, reaching 17,036 CNY per square meter. In contrast, the average price of second-hand residential properties decreased by 0.94% month-on-month and 7.95% year-on-year, standing at 13,143 CNY per square meter [3][12]. - The rental market showed a decline, with the average rent in 50 cities falling by 0.60% month-on-month and 3.57% year-on-year, averaging 34.36 CNY per square meter per month [17][19]. Summary by Sections New Residential Prices - The average price of new residential properties in 100 cities was 17,036 CNY per square meter, with a month-on-month increase of 0.37% and a year-on-year increase of 2.68%. Among first-tier cities, prices rose by 0.75% month-on-month and 6.66% year-on-year [8][10]. - In November, 31 cities experienced a month-on-month price increase, while 64 cities saw a decrease. The cities with the highest month-on-month increases included Shanghai (1.39%), Chengdu (1.34%), and Hangzhou (1.27%) [9][11]. Second-hand Residential Prices - The average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities was 13,143 CNY per square meter, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.94% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.95%. First-tier cities saw a month-on-month decline of 1.15% and a year-on-year decline of 5.62% [12][14]. - All 100 cities reported a month-on-month decline in second-hand residential prices, with Nanjing experiencing the largest drop at 1.83% [13][15]. Rental Market - The average rent in 50 cities was 34.36 CNY per square meter per month, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 0.60% and a year-on-year decline of 3.57% [17][19]. - Only one city saw a month-on-month rent increase, while 49 cities experienced declines, with the largest drop in Xi'an at 1.32% [18][19].

Core Insights - The average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities in November 2025 is 13,143 yuan per square meter, showing a month-on-month decline of 0.94% and a year-on-year decline of 7.95% [1][3] - The average price of newly built residential properties in 100 cities is 17,036 yuan per square meter, with a month-on-month increase of 0.37% and a year-on-year increase of 2.68% [1] - The rental market shows a decline, with the average rent in 50 cities at 34.36 yuan per square meter per month, down 0.60% month-on-month and 3.57% year-on-year [1] Second-hand Residential Market - In November, second-hand residential prices in first, second, and third/fourth-tier cities decreased by 1.15%, 0.98%, and 0.81% month-on-month, respectively, with year-on-year declines of 5.62%, 8.24%, and 7.47% [1] - The top ten cities saw a month-on-month decline in second-hand residential prices, with Nanjing and Wuhan experiencing the largest declines of 1.83% and 1.58%, respectively [3] - Year-on-year, Wuhan and Nanjing had the largest declines at 11.65% and 11.35%, while Chengdu had the smallest decline at 1.89% [3] New Residential Market - The new residential market remains stable with low supply levels, particularly in core cities like Shanghai, Chengdu, and Hangzhou, which have seen high-end improvement projects entering the market [1] - The structural increase in new residential prices is driven by these high-end projects, contributing to the overall price increase in core cities [1] Rental Market - The rental market is entering a traditional off-season, with average rents declining across major cities [1] - The rental price trends indicate a broader market slowdown, reflecting the overall economic conditions affecting housing demand [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Insights - The central economic work conference's statements regarding real estate provide important clues for understanding next year's industry policies. The policy goals continue to focus on risk prevention and market stabilization, with the potential for policy windows to open as thresholds approach. Inventory reduction may involve traditional demand support measures and tools like old renovation or storage. Supply optimization aims to enhance the quality of new residential buildings. The reform of the housing provident fund system may involve higher-level considerations beyond basic aspects like withdrawal, limits, and interest rates [2][8] - The policy goal of stabilizing the market has significantly boosted market expectations, but since April, marginal downward pressure has increased. The probability of easing industrial policies is gradually rising, and the pace of implementation is merely a timing issue. The rapid decline in industry volume and price may have passed, with structural highlights in core areas and quality properties. The current stock prices of quality real estate companies are not far from their bottom, providing room for rebound as market valuations rise. Emphasis should be placed on quality real estate firms with low inventory, good locations, and product strength, as well as stable cash flow from leading brokerage firms, commercial real estate, and state-owned property management companies [4][8] Market Performance - This week, the Yangtze River Real Estate Index decreased by 2.55%, with an excess return of -2.47% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 29th out of 32 industries. Year-to-date, the real estate index has increased by 3.87%, with an excess return of -12.55% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 27th out of 32 [5][14] - The performance of the real estate sector was poor this week, primarily driven by declines in development-related stocks, while property management and rental stocks showed mixed results [5] Policy Developments - The central economic work conference emphasized city-specific policies to control increments, reduce inventory, optimize supply, and deepen the housing provident fund system reform. It aims to stabilize the real estate market and encourage the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [6][16] - Local policies include Shenzhen's optimization of housing provident fund withdrawal regulations, allowing full withdrawals for families with one property and 60% for those with two. Shandong has introduced a housing "old-for-new" program, including three models: selling old for new, exchanging old for new, and demolishing old for new [6][16] Sales Data - This week, the sample cities' new housing transaction area saw a four-week rolling year-on-year decline of 45.6%, while second-hand housing transactions dropped by 28.6%. Year-to-date, new housing transaction area has decreased by 15.8%, while second-hand housing has increased by 4.2% [7][17] - As of December 12, the new housing transaction area in 37 cities showed a month-on-month decline of 41.7%, while second-hand housing transactions decreased by 36.3% [7][17]