[Table_Reportdate] 2025年12月19日 [美国Table_NewTitle] 11月通胀意外放缓，但参考性降低 ——海外观察：美国2025年11月CPI数据 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 联系人 邓尧天 dytian@longone.com.cn [table_main] 投资要点 量 研 究 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 总 宏 观 简 评 ➢ 事件：当地时间12月18日，美国劳工局发布美国11月CPI数据，同时由于缺少10月物价调 查，大部分物价指数11月环比数据无法计算。美国11月CPI同比2.7%，预期3.1%，9月值 3.0%；核心CPI同比2.6%，预期3.0%，9月值3.0%。 ➢ 核心观点：美国11月CPI数据意外放缓，主要受家庭食品和核心服务的大幅度降温影响。 能源服务受低基数以及冬季需求影响而保持在高位。关税影响依然难以忽视，服饰、新车 和医疗用品依然保持在年内较高增速。本次最大的意外是住房市场大幅度的 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a slight decline in the annualized rate of existing home sales in the U.S. for August, with a decrease of 0.2% from July, totaling 4 million units sold. The median home price has increased by 2% year-over-year to $422,600, marking the 26th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases [1][3]. Group 2 - NAR's Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun, noted that the housing market has been sluggish due to high mortgage rates and limited inventory. However, declining mortgage rates and an increase in available homes are expected to boost sales in the coming months [3]. - According to a report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC), the main variable affecting the U.S. economy and housing market is interest rates. A successful implementation of interest rate cuts could positively influence expectations for households and businesses, potentially alleviating affordability pressures for homebuyers and gradually restoring housing transactions [3]. - CICC also highlighted that U.S. home prices reached a historical peak in 2021, and while they have remained high since 2022, the actual growth rate has turned negative. The pandemic may signify a turning point for inflation and interest rates, suggesting limited future potential for real gains in home prices [3]. - Recent data from Freddie Mac indicates that the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage has dropped to 6.58%, the lowest since last fall, although it remains significantly higher than levels seen during the early recovery phase post-pandemic [3].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. mortgage application index has dropped to a five-week low, indicating a slowdown in housing market activity despite a slight decrease in interest rates [1] Group 1: Mortgage Application Trends - The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 4.4% decline in the mortgage application index, bringing it down to 155 for the week ending May 30 [1] - The refinancing index also fell by 3.5%, marking the fourth consecutive week of decline [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Movements - The 30-year fixed mortgage rate decreased by 6 basis points to 6.92% [1] - Although there has been a slight easing in housing financing costs, further reductions are necessary to revitalize the housing market [1] Group 3: Market Conditions - Homebuyers are finding more options as more sellers list their properties, yet asking prices remain high [1] - Mortgage rates are still close to 7%, which is a barrier for many potential buyers [1]