1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report Polyester Sector - In the short - term, the supply - demand situation has no significant improvement, the rebound momentum of the polyester sector is limited, and the oil price affects the market fluctuation rhythm. It is necessary to pay attention to the OPEC+ meeting results [30]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the supply is expected to increase, the demand peak season is not significant, and the polyester sector is under overall pressure [30]. Methanol Sector - In the short - term, with the continuation of high supply, unresolved high port inventory, and weakened main demand support, methanol may continue to decline in a volatile manner [49]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the inflection point of port inventory is the core point of the market. If the medium - to - long - term signals are positive, methanol may rebound [49]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Sector Macro and Crude Oil Information - The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00% on October 30. The outlook for December's rate action is uncertain, and market risk appetite has weakened [5]. - China and the US reached a joint arrangement on economic and trade issues, which helps improve oil demand expectations [5]. - Russia's crude oil exports in October are expected to remain at about 2.33 million barrels per day, alleviating concerns about supply disruptions [5]. - As of the week ending October 24, US crude oil production increased, and commercial crude and refined product inventories decreased. OPEC+ may continue to increase production [6]. Futures and Spot Prices - WTI crude oil futures prices decreased by 2.40% week - on - week, while PX601, TA601, PF512, and PR601 futures prices increased [8]. - The spot prices of PX, PTA, and polyester products showed different changes, with PX and PTA prices rising [8]. Supply and Demand of Each Product - **PX**: Domestic PX capacity utilization and production increased this week. Next week, a 700,000 - tonne device of Dalian Fujia will restart, and supply is expected to continue to increase [15]. - **PTA**: Domestic PTA supply increased this week. Although some devices reduced production, new devices are about to be put into operation, and supply is expected to increase slightly next week [17]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Domestic supply decreased this week, but is expected to increase next week. Port inventory increased slightly this week and may continue to accumulate next week [18]. - **Polyester End**: The average weekly polyester start - up rate increased slightly by 0.03 percentage points [19]. - **Polyester Inventory**: Short - fiber inventory increased slightly, while long - fiber inventory continued to decline [22]. - **Terminal**: As of October 31, the start - up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms increased, the order days of weaving enterprises increased, and the inventory of grey cloth decreased [28]. Methanol Sector Price Trends - The futures price of MA2601 decreased by 4.05% week - on - week, and the spot prices of methanol and its downstream products showed different changes [33]. Cost and Profit - The profits of coal - based and coke - oven gas - based methanol production continued to decline, while the profit of natural gas - based production was basically flat. The downstream gross profit continued to decline, and MTO remained in a deep loss state [39]. Supply - As of October 30, the domestic methanol start - up rate was 86.7%, and production increased. This week, the number of returning devices was greater than that of overhauled devices. Next week, some devices are planned to resume production, and there are no new overhaul plans [42]. Demand - Affected by profit squeeze, the overall demand start - up load continued to weaken. The MTO start - up load decreased slightly, and there is still an overhaul expectation in the next period. The traditional downstream was generally flat [45]. Inventory - As of October 29, port inventory decreased slightly, while inland inventory increased. Port inventory remained stable at a high level, and inland inventory accumulated but was still at a low level compared to previous years [48].

Core Viewpoint - Palm oil futures have shown a significant increase in price and trading volume, indicating a bullish trend in the market despite underlying supply and demand challenges [1][2][3] Market Performance - As of August 11, 2025, palm oil futures closed at 9460 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 4.97% [1] - The trading volume increased by 175,121 contracts compared to the previous week [1] - The weekly trading range was between 8914 yuan/ton and 9536 yuan/ton [1] Import and Cost Analysis - The CNF price for 24-degree palm oil for September-October shipments rose by 30 to 49 USD/ton, reaching 1118 USD/ton and 1105 USD/ton respectively [2] - The landed cost in South China increased by 260 to 430 yuan/ton, amounting to 9580 yuan/ton and 9450 yuan/ton [2] - India's palm oil imports in July were 855,695 tons, down from 955,683 tons in June [2] Supply and Demand Insights - Malaysia is entering a seasonal production increase, with expectations of the highest inventory levels in nearly two years [3] - Domestic consumption in China remains weak, with low port inventories and a declining spot basis [3] - Competition from alternative oils, particularly soybean oil, is exerting downward pressure on palm oil prices [3] Technical Analysis and Future Outlook - The market is currently in an overbought condition, suggesting limited short-term upward momentum [3] - If supply continues to increase without a corresponding improvement in demand, palm oil futures may face further downward pressure [3] - The domestic oilseed supply remains stable, with a neutral outlook for palm oil prices in the near term [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, foreign spot prices are strong, domestic inventories are rising, and tire operating rates are at a high level. The market is mainly driven by sentiment, and short - term trading is recommended [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, foreign spot is strong, domestic inventory is starting to increase, and tire operating rate is at a high level. The overall situation is neutral. The spot price is 13750 with a basis of - 140, which is bearish. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the inventory in Qingdao increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year, showing a neutral situation. The price is below the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is downward, which is bearish. The main position is net short with a reduction in short positions, also bearish. The market is sentiment - driven and short - term trading is recommended [4]. 2. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is increasing, and downstream consumption is at a high level. The domestic economy is gradually recovering, and raw material prices are strong [4][6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the exchange and in Qingdao has changed little recently. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the Qingdao inventory increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year [4][14][17]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) decreased on June 11. The US dollar quotation in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is also provided [8]. - **Import**: Import volume has a seasonal decline [20]. - **Downstream Consumption**: Automobile production and sales have a seasonal decline, tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports have declined [23][26][29][32]. - **Basis**: The basis became a futures premium on June 11 [35]. 3. Multi - Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely to Rise**: The domestic economy is gradually recovering, downstream consumption is at a high level, and raw material prices are strong [6]. - **Likely to Fall**: Supply is increasing, market inventory is rising, and the external environment is bearish [6].