以下文章来源于老汤哥Tango ，作者老汤哥 老汤哥Tango . 理想汽车第一产品线负责人，汽车行业，但更爱徒手健身！半年时间体重从180+变成138斤，体脂15% 以内，脂肪肝也没有了，还练出了6块腹肌！人生真的没有什么不可能 省流版： Q： 为啥L7 用了HW的电机，是你们技术不行吗？ A： 不是的，L789 后电机很常规的200kw的电机，综合考虑价格，质量等维度，我们同时有三家供 应商同时供应，它们的后电机可互换。 三家同时供应是为了保证供应安全。 对L系列而言，技术最难的是前五合一电机，我们自研自制。 Q： 为啥用HW，你们不是整车产品有竞争，不怕被卡脖子吗？ A： 不怕，因为和整车竞争的是各"界"，属于HW"消费者终端业务"板块 ，给我们供后电机的是 HW"数字能源业务"板块，它们是"兄弟"，但都已经分别"成家立业"了，都是分别独立经营的， 它们 的关系有点类似于上汽集团下面的整车厂和零部件企业，也都是独立经营的。 这几天在长春，青岛，潍坊见了不少用户，用户问了我一个非常锋利的问题，"感觉你们的车型和 HW有竞争，那为啥你们L7还用HW的电机啊？" "是不是因为你们自己电机技术不行必须得用HW啊 ...

在上海虹桥机场，梅雨季过后的持续高温让停机坪化作50℃的巨大"烤盘"。中国航油虹桥航空加油站的 飞机加油员们面对酷暑迎难而上，坚守一线。暑运启动后，航班量伴随气温持续上升，全站日均完成航 班保障400余架次，加注航油3300余吨。为保障机坪作业人员能在高温环境下安全作业，虹桥航空加油 站党支部同步开展了"送清凉"慰问活动，每日为坚守岗位的一线员工送去防暑降温物资，传递组织关 怀；为一线员工购置了藿香正气水、清凉油等防暑降温药物，并设置应急医药箱，确保员工作业安全； 及时更换老旧饮水设备，优化员工休息环境。同时，党支部通过班前会做好员工健康评估，合理调配人 员和作业时间，避免长时间机坪作业，并及时做好高温天气下特种车辆设备检查及降温工作。 杭州"战场"守规范，汗衫浸透保安全 入夏以来，全国多地持续遭遇极端高温天气，华东地区热浪席卷。上海虹桥机场停机坪地表温度直逼 50℃，浙江机坪地表实测突破60℃，福建机坪地表温度甚至冲上70℃。当金属加油车被晒得烫手，橡胶 鞋底与地面接触时发出"滋滋"声响，酷暑"烤验"下，中国航油铁军始终坚守一线，以钢铁般的意志捍卫 着航空燃油供应的安全屏障。 中国航油高度重视暑期和汛期安全 ...

Group 1: Impact of Geopolitical Tensions on Oil Supply - The recent Israel-Iran conflict has heightened tensions in the international petrochemical market, particularly following the U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, leading to Iran's parliament voting to potentially close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for nearly 20% of global oil supply [1] - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz poses a direct and profound threat to the world economy, as it is a major transport route for liquefied natural gas (LNG) [1] - Although the situation has somewhat eased, surrounding countries are proactively seeking alternative routes to mitigate the impact of a potential closure, but current efforts appear insufficient to offset the consequences [1] Group 2: Saudi Arabia's Oil Export Strategies - Saudi Arabia's key alternative to bypass the Strait of Hormuz is the East-West pipeline, capable of transporting 5 million barrels per day, connecting major oil production facilities to the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf [2] - As of June, the Ras Tanura port, which is the largest oil export port in the Persian Gulf, had an average daily export volume of 5.3 million barrels [2] - The East-West pipeline could potentially expand its capacity to 7 million barrels per day, but practical testing of this maximum capacity has not yet occurred [2][3] Group 3: UAE's Preparations and Infrastructure - The UAE is focusing on the Fujairah port, which serves as the endpoint for the 1.5 million barrels per day Habshan pipeline, as a substitute for oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz [4] - The current capacity of the Habshan pipeline is significantly lower than the UAE's total oil export volume of 3.5 million barrels per day [4] - The UAE has developed large underground caverns in Fujairah for oil storage, with a total capacity of 42 million barrels, and plans for further expansion [4] Group 4: Iraq's Oil Export Challenges - Iraq is exploring alternatives to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, with Turkey proposing a new pipeline from Basra to Ceyhan to enhance oil and gas exports [6] - The existing Northern Pipeline (ITP) has been closed since March 2023 due to disputes with the Kurdish region, complicating Iraq's ability to export oil [5][6] - The potential for reopening the ITP hinges on resolving outstanding issues between various parties, which may not be quickly achievable unless the Strait remains closed for an extended period [5] Group 5: Broader Regional Implications - Other major oil-producing countries in the Gulf region, such as Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain, currently lack alternative export routes to the Strait of Hormuz [6] - Qatar, Kuwait, and the neutral zone jointly exported a total of 2.4 million barrels per day in June, while Iran primarily exports 1.5 million barrels per day from the Persian Gulf [6] - The logistical constraints faced by these countries indicate that a closure of the Strait of Hormuz would likely lead to immediate supply shortages in the oil market, resulting in price surges [6]

德国经济部长：德国的天然气供应安全状况良好，已不再符合进入警戒水平的条件。 ...

Group 1 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) report indicates that the global oil supply is expected to grow significantly, driven by production expansions in Saudi Arabia and the U.S., with an increase of 5.1 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2030, reaching 114.7 million bpd, which far exceeds the anticipated demand growth of 2.5 million bpd [1] - The report highlights that geopolitical risks are a major concern for oil supply security, despite the forecast of sufficient supply in the coming years [1] - Global oil production capacity is projected to increase by 1.8 million bpd, primarily from the UAE and Iraq, while global natural gas liquids production is expected to rise by 2.3 million bpd, accounting for nearly 50% of the increase in global oil capacity [1] Group 2 - The report predicts that from 2024 to 2030, global oil demand will grow by 2.5 million bpd, but the growth rate will decline annually due to slowing economic growth and the acceleration of electric alternatives in the transportation sector [2] - The shift towards diversified fuels in transportation and power generation is expected to impact oil demand, with the petrochemical industry becoming the main driver of oil demand growth starting in 2026 [2] - By 2030, global polymer and synthetic fiber production is projected to consume 18.4 million bpd of oil, representing over one-sixth of global oil consumption [2] Group 3 - Emerging economies are expected to see strong demand growth, contrasting with the declining demand in developed economies, particularly in OECD countries, where oil consumption is projected to decrease by 1.7 million bpd by 2030 [3] - The report notes that falling oil prices will suppress upstream capacity expansion, with upstream investment expected to decline to approximately $420 billion in 2025, a decrease of 6% [3] - The refining sector is anticipated to face challenges due to weak growth in refined product demand, with global demand expected to peak at 86.3 million bpd in 2027, only increasing by 710,000 bpd from 2024 [3]

油价或迎年内最大涨幅。 6月27日，国际油价上涨。截至收盘，纽约商品交易所8月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨0.28美元报每桶 65.52美元，涨幅0.43%；8月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货上涨0.04美元报每桶67.77美元，涨幅0.06%。 7月1日24时，国内成品油价格或迎来上涨，预计汽、柴油每吨上调600元，折合每升上涨0.49至0.51元。 按此计算，加满一箱50升的92号汽油将多花24至25元。 据了解，本周期油价开局就展现出上涨趋势。6月18日，纽约商品交易所7月交货的轻质原油期货价格上 涨30美分，收于每桶75.14美元，涨幅为0.40%；8月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨25美分，收于 每桶76.70美元，涨幅为0.33%。 业内人士分析，近期伊以冲突持续发酵导致国际原油供应紧张，全球原油需求强劲，促使油价居高不 下。 据国际能源署发布的报告，受地缘政治压力及全球经济前景不确定性增加等因素的影响，国际石油市场 正经历结构性变化，未来几年全球石油供应增长将远远超过需求增长。 上述报告预计，2024年至2030年，全球原油需求日均增加250万桶，但全球原油产能日均增加超过500万 桶。到2030年， ...

Core Viewpoint - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is closely monitoring the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, which could severely impact Japan's energy supply [1] Group 1: Energy Dependency - Japan's energy supply is highly reliant on oil imports from the Middle East [1] Group 2: Political Actions - Ishiba had planned to discuss this issue during the upcoming NATO summit, but Japanese government officials have stated that he has canceled related travel plans [1]

阿富汗农业部长表示，阿富汗正与俄罗斯进行会谈，以确保食品供应，原因是伊朗遭受袭击。 ...

原油日报 | 2025-06-18 美国下场参与中东冲突可能性增加 市场要闻与重要数据 1、纽约商品交易所7月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨3.07美元，收于每桶74.84美元，涨幅为4.28%；8月交货的伦 敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨3.22美元，收于每桶76.45美元，涨幅为4.40%。SC原油主力合约收涨6.13%，报553元/ 桶。 2、IEA发布石油市场月报：预计2025年原油总需求将达到平均1.038亿桶/日，2026年为1.045亿桶/日；预计2025年 全球石油供应为1.049亿桶/日，2026年为1.06亿桶/日；将2025年平均石油需求增长预期从74万桶/日下调至72万桶/ 日，将2026年的从76万桶/日下调至74万桶/日；将2025年全球石油供应增长预测从160万桶/日上调至180万桶/日， 将2026年的从97万桶/日上调至110万桶/日。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、IEA认为，鉴于美国汽油价格走低且电动汽车普及放缓，全球石油需求仍将增长至本十年末。这与欧佩克认为 石油消费将持续增长，且未预测需求峰值的观点形成鲜明对比。IEA报告显示，石油需求将于2029年达到1.056亿 桶/日的 ...

6月13日，以色列对伊朗发动军事袭击，国际石油市场反应剧烈，伦敦布伦特原油期货价格和西得克萨 斯中质原油（WTI）价格当日盘中分别突破78.5美元和77美元，收盘涨幅均超过7%，创下自乌克兰危机 爆发以来的最大日内涨幅。中东地区地缘政治紧张局势加剧，恐将造成该地区原油供应中断的风险。石 油市场对此高度敏感，油价或在短期内由中东地缘政治所左右。 在此背景下，世界各大投资银行及能源机构纷纷修改此前预测，市场分析人士普遍认为，当前油价可能 会因突发事件而飙升，但长期来看仍将回归基本面，由供求关系来决定。 短期看，主要风险在于中东紧张局势快速升级，可能导致石油供应中断。假设伊朗封锁世界石油运输重 要通道霍尔木兹海峡，或是伊朗原油出口设施遭遇轰炸等，将对全球石油供应产生严重影响。霍尔木兹 海峡承担着全球约五分之一的石油运输任务，一旦中断，将引发能源供应链危机。正因如此，投资者们 纷纷提前布局风险敞口，程序化交易与避险买盘推波助澜，使得油价短时间内迅速上涨。 国际能源署（IEA）日前也发布警告称，中东能源安全形势的不确定性，可能对下半年全球能源供需平 衡带来重大挑战。此前，IEA曾预测2025年全球原油需求将保持适度增长 ...