宝市场部分厂商撤掉了部分黄金摊位专营卖白银和铂金。单从珠宝首饰消费来看，2025年中国铂金首饰 需求同比增长11%，达222.6万盎司（2018年以来最高），预计明年这个速度和消费规模还会进一步提 升。另外，从宏观市场看，宽松货币+地缘风险也在放大铂金的价格弹性。市场预期美联储2026年上半 年仍将维持宽松，进一步强化了铂金的"金融属性溢价"，部分资金因"黄金恐高"转向估值更低的铂金 （2025年金铂比长期维持在2.4以上，远超1.5的历史常态水平），推动铂金补涨。而地缘政治方面，俄 乌对立升级导致俄罗斯铂金出口不确定性增加（占全球矿产量15%），还有美国将钯纳入关键矿物质清 单，引发市场对铂族金属贸易限制的担忧；中国取消铂金进口环节增值税免征政策推升铂金进口价格等 因素，都会加大铂金的价格弹性。总的来看，2025年铂金的强势反弹，本质是"供需重构（核心）+宏 观催化（放大）+价值重估（驱动）"的三重共振，驱动逻辑是非常站得住的。尽管短期需警惕"价格暴 涨后的回调风险"（如钯金分流资金、美联储降息不及预期）。但中长期看，铂金的反弹很可能不是短 期脉冲，而是"产业价值重新发现"驱动的新一轮周期的开端。 2025 ...

Core Insights - Tianqi Lithium's Q3 report shows a gross margin increase to 37.57%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 95.49 million yuan, representing a 120% year-on-year growth [1] - The company achieved a basic earnings per share of 0.06 yuan for the quarter, and 0.11 yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, marking a 103.16% year-on-year increase [1] - Despite fluctuations in lithium product prices, the company benefited from a shortened pricing cycle for its subsidiary Windfield Holdings and improved pricing mechanisms for its lithium products [1] Industry Overview - The lithium battery sector is experiencing a robust supply-demand dynamic, with domestic new energy electric vehicle sales increasing by 35% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025, and an expected annual growth rate exceeding 30% [3] - The European market also shows a growth rate of 25%, with significant expansion in the energy storage sector [3] - Domestic battery production reached 186 GWh in October, a 22.4% month-on-month increase, with many leading manufacturers' orders extending into the next year [3] Company Developments - Tianqi Lithium's Jiangsu Zhangjiagang production base has confirmed that its 30,000-ton annual capacity project for battery-grade lithium hydroxide has met technical standards as of October 17, with sales expected to ramp up soon [3] - According to Dongwu Securities, the company possesses excellent resource endowments and significant cost advantages, suggesting further improvements in lithium salt profitability [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recently published "Suggestions on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" emphasizes the importance of promoting high-quality development in the real estate sector, indicating a clear direction for the industry over the next five years [1] Group 1: Policy Shift - The "Suggestions" explicitly call for the promotion of high-quality development in real estate, reflecting a shift in the industry's development stage. The average urban housing area per person has exceeded 40 square meters, and the average household owns nearly 1.1 homes, signaling the end of the housing shortage era [2] - The new model for real estate development will focus on improving foundational systems in development, financing, and sales, moving away from short-term demand restrictions or stimuli [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Restructuring - The "Suggestions" propose optimizing the supply of affordable housing to meet the basic housing needs of urban wage earners and various disadvantaged families, expanding the coverage of housing security [3] - The emphasis on increasing the supply of improved housing based on local demand variations will be a key characteristic of housing supply during the 15th Five-Year Plan period [3] Group 3: Quality Improvement - The "Suggestions" highlight the need to build safe, comfortable, green, and smart homes, along with implementing quality improvement projects for housing and property services [4] - Ongoing initiatives such as the renovation of old neighborhoods and urban renewal aim to enhance housing quality and living standards [4] Group 4: Revitalizing Stock - The revitalization of existing stock is becoming a significant source of housing supply, with policies aimed at utilizing low-efficiency land, idle properties, and existing infrastructure [5] - As of October 24, the total amount of proposed special bonds for acquiring idle land has exceeded 620 billion yuan, indicating strong support for revitalizing existing land and properties [5]

Group 1 - In September and October of this year, China has secured approximately 12 million tons of soybean supply from South America, accounting for about half of its demand during the same period, which has forced the U.S. to lose its traditional autumn export window [2] - Data indicates that China's total soybean imports for 2024 are projected to be around 105 million tons, with approximately 22.13 million tons sourced from the U.S., while over 70% will come from Brazil, and Argentina's supply is also rapidly increasing, providing China with diversified procurement options [4] - This strategy is not a "one-size-fits-all" approach but rather a rational choice for supply-demand restructuring and supply security, as diversifying imports helps mitigate risks from trade frictions and promotes the synergy between South American supply chains and the Chinese market [5]

Core Viewpoint - The price of Moutai, once considered a "myth of only rising," has experienced a significant decline, leading to substantial losses for investors and a panic sell-off in the market [1][3]. Price Movement - On July 15, 2023, the price of 2025 Flying Moutai dropped from 1940 yuan to 1930 yuan, while the price of scattered bottles fell from 1880 yuan to 1870 yuan. The 2024 Flying Moutai also saw a decline, with original box prices dropping from 1960 yuan to 1950 yuan and scattered bottle prices falling below 1850 yuan [1][8]. - The price of Moutai 1935 plummeted to 590 yuan per bottle on e-commerce platforms, only 30% of the official guide price. Compared to the peak price of over 4000 yuan in 2021, Moutai prices have shrunk by more than 30% [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The decline in Moutai prices is attributed to three main factors: the implementation of the strictest "ban on alcohol," a downturn in the real estate sector affecting business banquets, and an oversupply in the market with social inventory reaching 120 million bottles [3][4]. - The demand for Moutai in business settings has significantly decreased, leading to a loss of a crucial consumer base [4]. Inventory Pressure - The total inventory, including Moutai's own stock, amounts to 560 million bottles, indicating an average of nearly 2 bottles per Chinese household. Approximately 60% of unopened Moutai is being liquidated by speculators, exacerbating the market's downward pressure [4][5]. Channel Transformation - The rise of e-commerce platforms like Pinduoduo has driven down the price of Flying Moutai to the range of 1700-1800 yuan, below many distributors' costs. Moutai is also increasing its direct sales through the iMoutai app, raising the direct sales ratio to 45% [5][6]. Industry Impact - Moutai's price collapse has affected the entire liquor industry, with the price range of 1000 yuan being breached. Other liquor companies, such as Wuliangye, are also under pressure to maintain their price points [6][7]. Consumer Trends - The consumption of liquor has been declining, with the industry experiencing an 8-year consecutive drop in production. The younger generation shows a decreasing interest in liquor, with only 9% of Gen Z consuming it, and 73% reducing their alcohol intake for health reasons [7][10]. - Moutai's attempts to attract younger consumers through new products have not yielded positive results, indicating a struggle to connect with this demographic [10].