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中经评论:墨西哥提税或透支发展潜力
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-12-16 00:05
Core Viewpoint - Mexico's recent proposal to increase import tariffs on products from countries without free trade agreements, including China, is seen as a short-term solution to economic pressures, potentially sacrificing long-term economic stability for immediate benefits [1][2][4]. Group 1: Economic Context - Mexico's economy is under increasing pressure, with the growth forecast for 2025 being revised down from positive to negative, and the central bank lowering the annual growth expectation from 0.6% to 0.3% [2]. - The proposed tariff increases are expected to generate an additional revenue of 70 billion pesos (approximately 3.76 billion USD) for the national treasury, addressing a fiscal deficit projected to reach 5.7% of GDP in 2024, the highest in decades [2]. Group 2: Tariff Details - The new tariffs will apply to approximately 1,400 product categories, including automobiles, toys, steel, textiles, and plastic products, with rates ranging from 10% to 50%, effective January 1, 2026 [1]. - Some adjustments were made to the initial proposal, reducing tariffs on certain automotive parts, light industrial products, and textiles, but the overall impact is expected to harm trade relations, particularly with China [1]. Group 3: Domestic Reactions - The proposal has sparked significant debate within Mexico, with supporters arguing it addresses unfair competition and reliance on imports, while opponents warn that increased tariffs will raise production costs and ultimately burden consumers [2][3]. Group 4: Long-term Implications - The reliance on tariffs as a solution is criticized for failing to address underlying economic issues, as Mexico's manufacturing sector is heavily dependent on global supply chains, which could be disrupted by increased costs [3][4]. - The shift in trade policy may deter foreign investment, undermining Mexico's image as a reliable production base and creating uncertainty for international capital [3][4]. - The approach of using protectionist measures to solve problems in an open economy may lead to Mexico's economic isolation, especially in the context of global supply chain restructuring [4].