投资要点 预收、应收均环比抬升，费用优化帮助稳定业绩。1）收现端，25Q3 单季销售收现同比+2.6%，略好于 营收表现，与线下茅台大商打款加快有关，Q3 季末预收余额环比+22.4 亿元、同比-21.8 亿元。25Q3 应 收票据余额环比+23.9 亿元至52.1 亿元，自24H2 系列酒票据放开以来，余额持续攀升。2）利润端， 25Q3 公司净利率达50.0%，同比基本持平，1 是综合毛利率同比略增0.2pct，与茅台酒占比提升有关；2 是费用加强管控，Q3 销售、管理费用同比-24.7%、-6.6%，其中管理费用年内延续同比收缩态势，销售 费用季度同比则由增转降。 努力求变，推进供给侧转型调整，强化产品适配与渠道触达。当前普飞以价换量实现动销承托的稳定性 仍然延续，公司增长压力主要来自非标收入占比较高、系列酒动销根基不稳、直销渠道触达效率有限等 方面，供给侧转型调整仍需一定时间，期待后续公司通过优化产品及渠道配称实现增量挖掘的效果逐步 体现。2025 年茅台已确立完善自营体系+社会经销体系共10 类渠道的多元化生态，其中自营体系将加 强统筹平衡协调作用，社会经销体系则旨在发挥触达广、触达精准、转化有效的 ...

每日经济新闻 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——多地出现"负电价"，既然卖电"不挣钱"，为何电厂不愿停机？ （记者 王晓波） 免责声明：本文内容与数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。据此操作，风险自担。 每经AI快讯，东吴证券10月30日发布研报称，给予贵州茅台（600519.SH，最新价：1426.74元）"买 入"评级。评级理由主要包括：1）Q3收入降速纾压，系列酒降幅扩大；2）预收、应收均环比抬升，费 用优化帮助稳定业绩；3）努力求变，推进供给侧转型调整，强化产品适配与渠道触达。风险提示：宏 观承压消费持续走弱，需求企稳不及预期；市场对增速规划的非理性反应等。 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 东吴证券8月13日发布研报称，给予贵州茅台（600519.SH，最新价：1437.04元）买入评级。评级理由 主要包括：1）茅台酒保持节奏稳定，系列酒Q2边际降速；2）毛销差降势延续，预收款有所回落；3） 努力求变，推进供给侧转型调整，强化产品适配与渠道触达。风险提示：宏观承压消费持续走弱，需求 企稳不及预期；市场对增速规划的非理性反应等。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that Moutai's sales rhythm remains stable, while the series liquor faces marginal pressure [7] - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 91.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 45.4 billion yuan, up 8.9% year-on-year [7] - The report highlights that Moutai liquor's revenue grew by 10.2% in H1 and 11.0% in Q2, while series liquor saw a decline of 6.5% in Q2 due to high base effects and external demand pressures [7] - The company aims for a revenue growth of 9% in 2025, focusing on optimizing product and channel strategies to explore revenue increments [7] Summary by Sections Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Total revenue forecast (in million yuan): 150,560 in 2023, 174,144 in 2024, 190,161 in 2025, 198,851 in 2026, and 213,603 in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.04%, 15.66%, 9.20%, 4.57%, and 7.42% respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders forecast (in million yuan): 74,734 in 2023, 86,228 in 2024, 93,233 in 2025, 96,541 in 2026, and 103,001 in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.16%, 15.38%, 8.12%, 3.55%, and 6.69% respectively [1] - The latest diluted EPS forecast: 59.49 in 2023, 68.64 in 2024, 74.22 in 2025, 76.85 in 2026, and 81.99 in 2027 [1] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a P/E ratio of 24.16 for 2023, decreasing to 17.53 by 2027 [1] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 1,437.04 yuan, with a one-year low of 1,245.83 yuan and a high of 1,910.00 yuan [5] - The market value of circulating A shares is approximately 1,805,206.49 million yuan [5] Basic Data - The book value per share is 205.67 yuan, and the debt-to-asset ratio is 14.14% [6] - The total share capital is 1,256.20 million shares [6]