Core Viewpoint - The company reported its Q3 2025 financial results, showing a revenue of 128.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 64.63 billion yuan, up 6.2% year-on-year. Q3 revenue was 39.06 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.6%, and net profit of 19.22 billion yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year [1]. Revenue Performance - In Q3 2025, the company's liquor revenue increased by 0.6% year-on-year, indicating a release of pressure from industry demand shocks since May. However, the growth rate for series liquor significantly declined, with Q3 revenue dropping by 34.0% year-on-year [1]. - By product, Moutai liquor saw revenue growth of 9.3% for Q1-Q3 and 7.3% for Q3, with a slowdown attributed to changes in the delivery rhythm of offline direct sales channels [1]. - Series liquor experienced a revenue decline of 7.8% for Q1-Q3 and 34.0% for Q3, with expectations that only the 1935 product will maintain steady growth [1]. Channel Analysis - Q3 revenue from wholesale and direct sales channels showed a year-on-year increase of 14.4% and a decline of 14.9%, respectively, with direct sales accounting for 40% of total revenue, continuing to decrease quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The marginal acceleration in the distribution channel in Q3 was influenced by seasonal confirmation base fluctuations and smoother execution of Moutai quotas [2]. Financial Metrics - In Q3 2025, the company's net profit margin reached 50.0%, remaining stable year-on-year, supported by a slight increase in gross profit margin and effective cost control measures [2]. - Sales and management expenses decreased by 24.7% and 6.6% year-on-year, respectively, with management expenses continuing to contract throughout the year [2]. Strategic Adjustments - The company is focusing on supply-side transformation and channel optimization to enhance product adaptability and market reach. The current growth pressure is attributed to a high proportion of non-standard revenue and unstable sales of series liquor [3]. - By 2025, Moutai aims to establish a diversified ecosystem with 10 types of channels, enhancing coordination in its self-operated system while leveraging the advantages of its social distribution system [3]. Profit Forecast - Based on the Q3 2025 performance, the company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 90.2 billion, 93.3 billion, and 97.0 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 5%, 3%, and 4%, respectively [3].

Group 1 - Dongwu Securities issued a report on October 30, giving Guizhou Moutai (600519.SH, latest price: 1426.74 CNY) a "buy" rating [1] - The reasons for the rating include a deceleration in Q3 revenue growth, with a widening decline in series liquor sales [1] - Prepayments and receivables have increased on a quarter-on-quarter basis, and cost optimization has helped stabilize performance [1] - The company is making efforts to transform and adjust its supply side, enhancing product adaptation and channel reach [1]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 东吴证券8月13日发布研报称，给予贵州茅台（600519.SH，最新价：1437.04元）买入评级。评级理由 主要包括：1）茅台酒保持节奏稳定，系列酒Q2边际降速；2）毛销差降势延续，预收款有所回落；3） 努力求变，推进供给侧转型调整，强化产品适配与渠道触达。风险提示：宏观承压消费持续走弱，需求 企稳不及预期；市场对增速规划的非理性反应等。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that Moutai's sales rhythm remains stable, while the series liquor faces marginal pressure [7] - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 91.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 45.4 billion yuan, up 8.9% year-on-year [7] - The report highlights that Moutai liquor's revenue grew by 10.2% in H1 and 11.0% in Q2, while series liquor saw a decline of 6.5% in Q2 due to high base effects and external demand pressures [7] - The company aims for a revenue growth of 9% in 2025, focusing on optimizing product and channel strategies to explore revenue increments [7] Summary by Sections Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Total revenue forecast (in million yuan): 150,560 in 2023, 174,144 in 2024, 190,161 in 2025, 198,851 in 2026, and 213,603 in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.04%, 15.66%, 9.20%, 4.57%, and 7.42% respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders forecast (in million yuan): 74,734 in 2023, 86,228 in 2024, 93,233 in 2025, 96,541 in 2026, and 103,001 in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.16%, 15.38%, 8.12%, 3.55%, and 6.69% respectively [1] - The latest diluted EPS forecast: 59.49 in 2023, 68.64 in 2024, 74.22 in 2025, 76.85 in 2026, and 81.99 in 2027 [1] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a P/E ratio of 24.16 for 2023, decreasing to 17.53 by 2027 [1] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 1,437.04 yuan, with a one-year low of 1,245.83 yuan and a high of 1,910.00 yuan [5] - The market value of circulating A shares is approximately 1,805,206.49 million yuan [5] Basic Data - The book value per share is 205.67 yuan, and the debt-to-asset ratio is 14.14% [6] - The total share capital is 1,256.20 million shares [6]