2025 年 12 月 03 日 开源晨会 1203 ——晨会纪要 沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 沪深300 创业板指 晨 会 纪 数据来源：聚源 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 行业名称 涨跌幅(%) 石油石化 0.707 轻工制造 0.550 家用电器 0.426 建筑材料 0.321 通信 0.27 数据来源：聚源 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 传媒 | -1.750 | | 有色金属 | -1.358 | | 计算机 | -1.336 | | 医药生物 | -1.232 | | 电力设备 | -1.184 | 数据来源：聚源 吴梦迪（分析师） wumengdi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521070001 观点精粹 总量视角 【宏观经济】通向供需新均衡——2026 年宏观展望-20251202 "十五五"规划的三大要点：承前启后、科技强国、扩大内需。通向供需新均衡： 供给&需求、内需&外需、投资&消费。宏观政策更加积极：适时降准降息、广义 赤 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2026, China's economy is expected to focus on balancing growth stabilization and structural adjustment, with a projected GDP growth target of around 5% and continued policy support [1][2][3] Economic Policy and Outlook - The fiscal policy is anticipated to maintain momentum, with public fiscal deficit potentially increasing from 4% to 4.2%, adding approximately 1.7 trillion yuan to the broad deficit scale [2][3] - Monetary policy is expected to diversify, including measures such as central bank bond trading, reserve requirement ratio cuts, and open market operations [2][3] - The divergence between domestic demand and export performance is a key focus, with exports expected to grow by about 6% in 2026 despite external pressures [3][4] Domestic Demand and Supply Dynamics - The ideal policy combination for 2026 should prioritize "increasing demand" while also "optimizing supply," focusing on fiscal expansion and enhancing social security [3][4] - Fixed asset investment is projected to see limited recovery, with infrastructure investment growth remaining stable, while consumer spending is expected to shift towards service consumption [3][4] - Key measures to stimulate service consumption include introducing service consumption vouchers and promoting new urbanization [3][4] Capital Market Trends - The A-share market is expected to continue a "slow bull" trend in 2026, driven by asset replacement, capital market reforms, and economic transformation [5][6] - The market's focus is shifting from sentiment-driven to fundamental verification, with corporate earnings being crucial for valuation increases [6][7] - A clear investment direction is suggested, focusing on four main lines: technology growth (self-sufficiency in computing power, semiconductors, AI applications), PPI improvement, global competitiveness (automotive, electronics, machinery), and domestic demand transformation [7][8]