Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - **Rebar**: The main contract price fluctuates, with a daily decline of 0.13%. Demand has improved slightly, but the downstream remains weak, and the supply is weakly stable. The steel price is under pressure in the off - season and is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, with attention paid to steel mill production [5]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price fluctuates with a 0% daily decline. Demand shows some resilience, but supply is at a high level and there are concerns about demand. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to demand performance [5]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price fluctuates downward, with a daily decline of 1.03%. Supply remains high, and although demand has improved, fundamental contradictions in the ore market are accumulating. The price is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, with attention paid to steel mill restocking [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - The central bank reported that in 2025, the annual RMB loans increased by 16.27 trillion yuan, M2 increased by 8.5% year - on - year, and the year - end social financing scale stock was 442.12 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3% [7]. - By the end of December 2025, over 5500 plots of land were planned to be acquired using special bonds, with a planned acquisition area of nearly 300 million square meters, and more than 300 billion yuan of corresponding special bonds had been issued [8]. - Ukraine's Ferrexpo produced 6.1 million tons of iron ore in 2025, a 9% decrease from 2024 but maintaining above 6 million tons for the second consecutive year. In Q4 2025, production was affected by attacks, with a 29% decline from the previous quarter and a 38.9% decline year - on - year [9]. 2. Spot Market - **Steel products**: Rebar's Shanghai price is 3260 yuan/ton, Tianjin is 3200 yuan/ton, and the national average is 3346 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil's Shanghai price is 3290 yuan/ton, Tianjin is 3190 yuan/ton, and the national average is 3309 yuan/ton. The rebar - scrap spread is 1150 yuan/ton, and the coil - rebar spread is 30 yuan/ton [10]. - **Iron ore**: PB powder in Shandong ports is 815 yuan/ton, Tangshan iron concentrate is 782 yuan/ton, the Australian sea freight is 7.52, and the Brazilian sea freight is 20.38. The SGX swap price (current month) is 108.00, and the iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) is 107.80 [10]. 3. Futures Market - **Rebar**: The closing price of the active contract is 3160 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.13%, a trading volume of 754,088, and an open interest of 1,685,122 [12]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The closing price of the active contract is 3307 yuan/ton, with no change, a trading volume of 326,133, and an open interest of 1,448,345 [12]. - **Iron ore**: The closing price of the active contract is 813.0 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.03%, a trading volume of 252,986, and an open interest of 652,402 [12]. 4. Related Charts - **Steel inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mill + social) of rebar and hot - rolled coil from 2022 - 2026 [15][20]. - **Iron ore inventory**: Charts display the inventory of 45 ports, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines, as well as their seasonal changes and month - on - month changes from 2022 - 2026 [23][25]. - **Steel mill production**: Charts present the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability ratio, and electric furnace operating rate of steel mills from 2022 - 2026 [29][32]. 5. Market Outlook - **Rebar**: Demand has improved slightly, but the downstream is still weak, and supply is weakly stable. The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [39]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Demand shows some resilience, but supply is at a high level and there are concerns about demand. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to demand performance [40]. - **Iron ore**: Supply remains high, and although demand has improved, fundamental contradictions in the ore market are accumulating. The price is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill restocking [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Thanks to short - term favorable factors, iron ore prices are at a high level, but supply pressure persists, demand improvement is limited, the iron ore fundamentals are weak, and the upward driving force is not strong. The subsequent trend will maintain high - level fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the pre - holiday restocking situation of steel mills [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Short - term Favorable Factors Supporting Iron Ore Prices - The structural contradiction in the spot market remains unsolved. Although the inventory at 47 domestic ports has exceeded 167 million tons, the inventory of available varieties has dropped to a very low level, so the total inventory contradiction has not affected the market [3] - Recently, the prices of resource - related varieties have been strong, especially copper and silver. Iron ore, with the strongest financial attributes among ferrous metals, has been boosted by the rise in resource prices [3] - The variety arbitrage logic provides support. The current black - metal positions still favor iron ore long positions and short positions in other varieties, which is also beneficial to the iron ore price trend [3] - The restocking expectation of steel mills is being realized. The inventory in steel mills has increased for two consecutive weeks, and the spot trading volume at ports has also increased, leading to an improvement in iron ore demand [3] Limited Improvement Space in Demand - At the beginning of the new year, steel mills started to resume production, and iron ore demand improved. The latest daily average hot - metal output of 247 sample steel mills and the daily consumption of imported ore were 2.2743 million tons and 2.8067 million tons respectively, with a week - on - week increase of 0.0085 million tons and 0.0063 million tons [4] - However, the improvement space of iron ore demand is limited. On one hand, the profitability of steel mills has not improved, and the loss - making proportion of long - process steel mills is still large. The profit - making ratio among 247 steel mills is 38.10%. On the other hand, the downstream steel market is in the traditional off - season, and industrial contradictions are accumulating, which restricts the production - increasing motivation of steel mills [4] - The relatively positive aspect is that as the Spring Festival approaches, steel mills have the motivation to restock. In the past five years, the average inventory in steel mills before the festival increased by about 16.3 million tons, and restocking was mostly concentrated in the four weeks before the festival, which will form short - term support for iron ore demand and prices [4] High Supply Pressure - The arrival volume at domestic ports has recovered as expected. The latest value at 47 domestic ports is 28.247 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.969 million tons, remaining at a high level this year [5] - After the year - end shipment rush, the overseas miners' shipments have declined from the high, but the global iron ore shipment volume is still higher than the same period last year. The cumulative global iron ore shipments in December increased by 13.74 million tons and 19.55 million tons respectively compared with the previous month and the same period last year, and the floating inventory is high, so the arrival volume at ports will remain relatively high [5] - The port iron ore inventory has continuously reached new highs. The latest inventory at 47 domestic ports and the number of ships at ports are 167.2179 million tons and 109 respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 11.1135 million tons and 14 respectively. The total inventory contradiction has not been alleviated, and the de - stocking pressure is still significant [5] - In the long term, more new production capacity will be put into use in 2026. Under a relatively neutral expectation, the supply increment may exceed 60 million tons, which will exacerbate the loose supply pattern and put pressure on iron ore prices [6]