本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【美豆盘面回落，国内粕类市场受影响】今日，美豆盘面明显回落，因产区天气好且需求端无实质利 多。国内豆粕盘面随成本端下行，现货转弱。菜粕支撑有限，前期有支撑但压力增大后跌幅增加，豆菜 粕价差走扩。豆粕和菜粕盘面月间价差均回落。 基本面来看，美豆新作平衡表好转，受生柴政策对压 榨的提振，但产量和出口缺乏利多。截至6月15日当周，美豆优良率达66%。截至6月12日当周，美豆旧 作出口检验量21.58万吨。美国5月大豆压榨数据佳，NOPA口径压榨量1.92829亿蒲，环比增1.37%，利 润反弹。 巴西农户卖货进度慢，处于历史同期低位，近期继续放缓，价格压力显现。巴西压榨量下 降，虽4月压榨量表现好但利润低，因中国买船多。预计巴西或上调出口，此前已上调，市场压力仍 大。阿根廷后续压榨量或好转，前期因产能下降，现终端产品价格企稳，但大豆出口可能增加。 国内 现货宽松，油厂开机率升，供应足，提货和库存增加，成交一般。截至7月4日，油厂大豆压榨量233.22 万吨，开机率65.56%，大豆库存636.4万吨，较上周减29.47万吨。豆粕库存82.24万吨，较上周增 ...

Core Insights - The raw sugar market is experiencing wide fluctuations in prices, influenced by reduced sugar beet planting area in Germany and projected sugar production in India for the 2024/25 season [1] - The cotton market is facing a decline in global production, particularly in China and Australia, while demand shows signs of slowing down despite a year-on-year increase in retail [1] Sugar Market Analysis - Germany's sugar beet planting area for the 2025/26 season is down by 6.6% to approximately 408,500 hectares due to low EU sugar prices [1] - India's sugar production for the 2024/25 season is estimated at 26.11 million tons, with ending stocks of 4.8 to 5 million tons, sufficient to meet domestic demand in late 2025 [1] - Domestic sugar prices in China range from 6,120 to 6,200 CNY/ton in Guangxi and 5,910 to 5,960 CNY/ton in Yunnan, with import prices estimated at 4,760 to 4,790 CNY/ton for quota imports and 6,060 to 6,090 CNY/ton for non-quota imports [1] - The total sugar production in Yunnan for the 2024/25 season is projected at 2.45 million tons, with a national production estimate of 11.2 million tons, slightly above the Ministry of Agriculture's forecast [1] - The import sugar profit window has opened, but pressure remains as prices are expected to gradually decline [1] Cotton Market Analysis - The USDA forecasts a year-on-year decline in global cotton production for the 2025/26 season, with significant reductions in China and Australia, while Brazil's production is expected to increase and the US remains stable [1] - Retail sales in April showed a year-on-year increase, but the growth rate is slowing, and textile companies' operating rates are stable month-on-month, indicating limited support from seasonal demand [1] - China's clothing export value decreased year-on-year in April, and US cotton imports are low [1] - Commercial cotton stocks have decreased month-on-month and are at a near historical low, while textile companies' finished goods inventory has started to decline [1] - The international market is currently dominated by macroeconomic factors, with limited impact from fundamentals, leading to expectations of low fluctuations in ICE cotton prices [1] - In the domestic market, macro influences are weakening, and there are no significant drivers from fundamentals, with Zheng cotton prices entering a new fluctuation range [1]