投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 铁矿石 后市高位震荡 （2026 年 1 月 7 日） 去年 12 月中旬以来，铁矿石期现价格呈现出震荡上行态势，主力合约期价突破近五个月的震荡 区间上沿，且刷新阶段性价格新高；相应的现货价格同样高位运行，普氏铁矿石价格指数收于 105.80 美元/吨，港口现货价格表现同样偏强。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 短期利多支撑矿价 12 月中旬铁矿石价格整体表现要明显强于其他黑色品种，螺矿比、焦矿比继续位于年内低位， 当前支撑矿价主要源于以下几方面因素。首先，现货结构性矛盾未解，国内 47 港库存虽突破 1.67 亿吨水平，但因部分主流现货品种交易受限，可用品种库存降至极低水平，因而总量矛盾对盘面影 响并未兑现。其次，近期资源品相关品种走势偏强，尤以铜、白银表现最为强势，而黑色金属中铁 矿石金融属性最强，为此资源品上涨也提振矿价。第三，品种套利逻辑支撑，当前黑色持仓依旧呈 现多配铁矿石、空配其他品种的格局，同样利好矿价走势。最后，钢厂补库预期在兑现，钢厂厂内 库存连续两周增加，且港口现货成交同样放量，带来铁矿 ...

鸡蛋：截至 11 月末，全国产蛋鸡存栏量约 13.52 亿只，同比减少 5.32%， 且仍处于环比下降通道，预计 2026 年一季度存栏降幅将在 0.50%-0.80%之间。 尽管当前存栏量仍处历史较高水平，但中大码鸡蛋占比偏高，叠加部分散户因政 策合规压力缩减产能，中长期供应收缩预期逐步形成。今天盘面有尝试性冲高， 远月去产能和近月宽松仍然可能形成拉锯，不过已经不建议过度看空。暂时观望 为主。 生猪：2025 年 10 月能繁母猪存栏量降至 3990 万头，虽仍高于 3900 万头的 行业合理调控目标，但下降趋势明确。后续产能去化的速度和力度将成为决定供 应收缩幅度的关键，若能持续稳步下降至合理区间，国内生猪市场将迎来重要转 折。如产能去化进程加速，预计 2026 年末能繁母猪存栏降至 3750-3800 万头附 近；价格走势呈现前低后高特征，远月合约或考虑逢低买入机会。 【冠通期货研究报告】 养殖产业链日报：震荡偏强 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 5 日 大豆：国内大豆现货市场价格走势稳中偏强，其中东北产区现货市场价格延 续偏强走势，国储拍卖成交良好、国储收购进行中、农户惜售、有订单主体继续 收购均为现 ...

| 锡产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年12月17日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 320500 | 324100 | -3600 | -1.11% | | | SMM 1#锡开贴水 | -50 | -50 | O | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 321000 | 324600 | -3600 | -1.11% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | 50.00 | 17.00 | 33.00 | 194.12% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 进口盈亏 | -13349.68 | -13968.02 | 618.34 | 4.43% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 7.92 | 7.92 | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a downward trend in alumina prices, with significant price drops in the spot market and increased supply pressure [1] - Recent transactions in Shandong show a spot price of approximately 2970 yuan/ton for alumina, with a notable price difference of over 200 yuan/ton between southern and northern regions [1] - The increase in inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, with a rise of 3591 tons to 114,111 tons, reflects strong selling intentions from traders and an increase in discounted transactions [1] Group 2 - The macroeconomic context includes a downward revision of the U.S. non-farm payroll data, which raises concerns about the credibility of labor data and increases pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [1] - Despite a slight increase in operating rates for downstream processing enterprises, demand has not significantly rebounded, with social inventory of aluminum ingots remaining stable at 475,000 tons [1] - The aluminum price is under pressure from weak spot trading, with the Shanghai aluminum 10 contract expected to operate within a range of 20,400 to 21,000 yuan/ton [1] Group 3 - The alloy market is experiencing fluctuations, with macroeconomic sentiment cooling due to the revised U.S. non-farm data [1] - On the raw material side, the cancellation of tax rebates in some regions is supporting the price of scrap aluminum, while smelting profits are rising [1] - The price difference between AD2511 and AL2511 is oscillating around -430, with the main contract expected to operate within a range of approximately 20,200 to 20,600 yuan/ton [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. soybean market has experienced a significant decline due to favorable weather conditions in production areas and a lack of substantial demand-side support, impacting the domestic soybean meal market [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The U.S. soybean market has seen a drop, influenced by good weather in production areas and weak demand [1] - Domestic soybean meal prices have weakened as costs decline, with limited support for rapeseed meal [1] - The price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has widened, indicating increased pressure on rapeseed meal prices [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The U.S. soybean crop balance sheet has improved, supported by biodiesel policies, but production and export lack positive factors [1] - As of June 15, the U.S. soybean crop's good-to-excellent rating reached 66% [1] - The export inspection volume for old U.S. soybeans was 215,800 tons as of June 12 [1] Group 3: Processing and Inventory - U.S. soybean crushing data for May showed a total of 19.2829 million bushels, a month-on-month increase of 1.37%, indicating a rebound in profitability [1] - Brazilian farmers are selling at a historically low pace, with recent sales slowing down and price pressures emerging [1] - Domestic soybean crushing volume reached 2.3322 million tons as of July 4, with an operating rate of 65.56% [1] Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is currently stable with reduced macroeconomic disturbances, although concerns about future supply uncertainties remain [1] - The demand for U.S. soybeans from China is expected to remain high in the short term, limiting significant declines [1] - The trading strategy suggests focusing on low-position long positions and observing the market for options [1]

Core Insights - The raw sugar market is experiencing wide fluctuations in prices, influenced by reduced sugar beet planting area in Germany and projected sugar production in India for the 2024/25 season [1] - The cotton market is facing a decline in global production, particularly in China and Australia, while demand shows signs of slowing down despite a year-on-year increase in retail [1] Sugar Market Analysis - Germany's sugar beet planting area for the 2025/26 season is down by 6.6% to approximately 408,500 hectares due to low EU sugar prices [1] - India's sugar production for the 2024/25 season is estimated at 26.11 million tons, with ending stocks of 4.8 to 5 million tons, sufficient to meet domestic demand in late 2025 [1] - Domestic sugar prices in China range from 6,120 to 6,200 CNY/ton in Guangxi and 5,910 to 5,960 CNY/ton in Yunnan, with import prices estimated at 4,760 to 4,790 CNY/ton for quota imports and 6,060 to 6,090 CNY/ton for non-quota imports [1] - The total sugar production in Yunnan for the 2024/25 season is projected at 2.45 million tons, with a national production estimate of 11.2 million tons, slightly above the Ministry of Agriculture's forecast [1] - The import sugar profit window has opened, but pressure remains as prices are expected to gradually decline [1] Cotton Market Analysis - The USDA forecasts a year-on-year decline in global cotton production for the 2025/26 season, with significant reductions in China and Australia, while Brazil's production is expected to increase and the US remains stable [1] - Retail sales in April showed a year-on-year increase, but the growth rate is slowing, and textile companies' operating rates are stable month-on-month, indicating limited support from seasonal demand [1] - China's clothing export value decreased year-on-year in April, and US cotton imports are low [1] - Commercial cotton stocks have decreased month-on-month and are at a near historical low, while textile companies' finished goods inventory has started to decline [1] - The international market is currently dominated by macroeconomic factors, with limited impact from fundamentals, leading to expectations of low fluctuations in ICE cotton prices [1] - In the domestic market, macro influences are weakening, and there are no significant drivers from fundamentals, with Zheng cotton prices entering a new fluctuation range [1]