Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a downward trend in alumina prices, with significant price drops in the spot market and increased supply pressure [1] - Recent transactions in Shandong show a spot price of approximately 2970 yuan/ton for alumina, with a notable price difference of over 200 yuan/ton between southern and northern regions [1] - The increase in inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, with a rise of 3591 tons to 114,111 tons, reflects strong selling intentions from traders and an increase in discounted transactions [1] Group 2 - The macroeconomic context includes a downward revision of the U.S. non-farm payroll data, which raises concerns about the credibility of labor data and increases pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [1] - Despite a slight increase in operating rates for downstream processing enterprises, demand has not significantly rebounded, with social inventory of aluminum ingots remaining stable at 475,000 tons [1] - The aluminum price is under pressure from weak spot trading, with the Shanghai aluminum 10 contract expected to operate within a range of 20,400 to 21,000 yuan/ton [1] Group 3 - The alloy market is experiencing fluctuations, with macroeconomic sentiment cooling due to the revised U.S. non-farm data [1] - On the raw material side, the cancellation of tax rebates in some regions is supporting the price of scrap aluminum, while smelting profits are rising [1] - The price difference between AD2511 and AL2511 is oscillating around -430, with the main contract expected to operate within a range of approximately 20,200 to 20,600 yuan/ton [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. soybean market has experienced a significant decline due to favorable weather conditions in production areas and a lack of substantial demand-side support, impacting the domestic soybean meal market [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The U.S. soybean market has seen a drop, influenced by good weather in production areas and weak demand [1] - Domestic soybean meal prices have weakened as costs decline, with limited support for rapeseed meal [1] - The price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has widened, indicating increased pressure on rapeseed meal prices [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The U.S. soybean crop balance sheet has improved, supported by biodiesel policies, but production and export lack positive factors [1] - As of June 15, the U.S. soybean crop's good-to-excellent rating reached 66% [1] - The export inspection volume for old U.S. soybeans was 215,800 tons as of June 12 [1] Group 3: Processing and Inventory - U.S. soybean crushing data for May showed a total of 19.2829 million bushels, a month-on-month increase of 1.37%, indicating a rebound in profitability [1] - Brazilian farmers are selling at a historically low pace, with recent sales slowing down and price pressures emerging [1] - Domestic soybean crushing volume reached 2.3322 million tons as of July 4, with an operating rate of 65.56% [1] Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is currently stable with reduced macroeconomic disturbances, although concerns about future supply uncertainties remain [1] - The demand for U.S. soybeans from China is expected to remain high in the short term, limiting significant declines [1] - The trading strategy suggests focusing on low-position long positions and observing the market for options [1]

Core Insights - The raw sugar market is experiencing wide fluctuations in prices, influenced by reduced sugar beet planting area in Germany and projected sugar production in India for the 2024/25 season [1] - The cotton market is facing a decline in global production, particularly in China and Australia, while demand shows signs of slowing down despite a year-on-year increase in retail [1] Sugar Market Analysis - Germany's sugar beet planting area for the 2025/26 season is down by 6.6% to approximately 408,500 hectares due to low EU sugar prices [1] - India's sugar production for the 2024/25 season is estimated at 26.11 million tons, with ending stocks of 4.8 to 5 million tons, sufficient to meet domestic demand in late 2025 [1] - Domestic sugar prices in China range from 6,120 to 6,200 CNY/ton in Guangxi and 5,910 to 5,960 CNY/ton in Yunnan, with import prices estimated at 4,760 to 4,790 CNY/ton for quota imports and 6,060 to 6,090 CNY/ton for non-quota imports [1] - The total sugar production in Yunnan for the 2024/25 season is projected at 2.45 million tons, with a national production estimate of 11.2 million tons, slightly above the Ministry of Agriculture's forecast [1] - The import sugar profit window has opened, but pressure remains as prices are expected to gradually decline [1] Cotton Market Analysis - The USDA forecasts a year-on-year decline in global cotton production for the 2025/26 season, with significant reductions in China and Australia, while Brazil's production is expected to increase and the US remains stable [1] - Retail sales in April showed a year-on-year increase, but the growth rate is slowing, and textile companies' operating rates are stable month-on-month, indicating limited support from seasonal demand [1] - China's clothing export value decreased year-on-year in April, and US cotton imports are low [1] - Commercial cotton stocks have decreased month-on-month and are at a near historical low, while textile companies' finished goods inventory has started to decline [1] - The international market is currently dominated by macroeconomic factors, with limited impact from fundamentals, leading to expectations of low fluctuations in ICE cotton prices [1] - In the domestic market, macro influences are weakening, and there are no significant drivers from fundamentals, with Zheng cotton prices entering a new fluctuation range [1]