供需矛盾缓和
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供需矛盾缓和叠加成本支撑 11月双铜纸市场或小幅反弹
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-11-11 06:38
Core Viewpoint - The double copper paper market is expected to stabilize and see a slight rebound in prices in November due to improved demand and reduced supply pressures, despite ongoing cost challenges [1][8]. Supply and Demand - November is anticipated to see a decrease in double copper paper production, with a projected decline of 1.07% month-on-month due to maintenance shutdowns and fewer working days [4][8]. - Demand is showing signs of recovery, driven by new publishing tenders and increased commercial activities towards the end of the year, with a projected consumption increase of 6.72% in November [4][8]. - The issuance of price increase notices by paper mills at the end of October has boosted market confidence, leading to a stabilization of prices [2][4]. Pricing Trends - As of November 7, the market price for 157g double copper paper was reported at 4770 yuan/ton, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 1.24%, although the rate of decline has narrowed compared to the previous month [2]. - Overall, the average price for November is expected to be around 4800 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 0.20% month-on-month [8]. Cost Factors - The cost of key raw materials for double copper paper production has decreased by 0.24% as of the end of October, while paper prices have dropped by 1.24%, leading to a theoretical gross margin of over -4.00% [6]. - Recent increases in the prices of wood pulp, with needle and broadleaf pulp rising by 0.64% and 0.54% respectively, indicate a potential upward pressure on production costs moving forward [6][8]. - The sentiment in the wood pulp market is improving, suggesting that prices may be more likely to rise than fall, which could further pressure the profitability of paper mills [6][8].