Economic Performance - Industrial added value increased by 6.3% year-on-year in January-February, exceeding the expected 5.0%[1] - Fixed asset investment rose by 1.8% year-on-year, against an expected decline of 4.2%[1] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 2.8% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 2.1%[1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The weighted year-on-year growth of industrial and service production indicators was 5.6%, rebounding by 0.5 percentage points from December[1] - The gap between supply and demand narrowed from 9.6 percentage points to 2.5 percentage points[1] External Demand and Exports - Industrial export delivery value surged by 6.3%, the highest growth rate since April of the previous year, contributing 0.7 percentage points to industrial added value[2] - The expected annual export growth rate has been revised upward from 3-5% to around 6%[2] Consumer Spending Trends - Retail sales growth for services reached 5.6%, significantly higher than the 2.5% growth for goods[2] - Automobile sales negatively impacted retail performance, contributing a drag effect of 2.2 percentage points on retail sales[3] Infrastructure and Investment - Fixed asset investment increased by 1.8%, with infrastructure investment growing at 11.4%, outperforming manufacturing and real estate investments[4] - State-owned investment rose by 7.7% year-on-year, significantly higher than the previous year's decline of 2.5%[4] Real Estate Market Insights - Real estate sales area and sales value showed better-than-seasonal performance, with sales area declining by only 1.1% month-on-month[5] - New home prices in first-tier cities saw a reduced decline of 0.1% month-on-month, indicating a stabilization trend[5] Overall Economic Outlook - The economic data indicates improvements in consumption and investment, particularly in infrastructure, driven by state-owned enterprises[6] - The real estate sector shows signs of recovery, although challenges remain due to previous weak sales and limited land acquisition by developers[6]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic ketone market is experiencing a recovery phase due to easing supply-demand tensions and strong market sentiment, with prices at a five-year low, leading to a potential upward trend in the industry [1][4]. Supply Side - As of early January 2026, the price of ketone in East China is around 6300-6350 RMB/ton, while in South China it is approximately 6450-6500 RMB/ton [1][4]. - In December 2025, major manufacturers in Guangdong faced low operational rates due to upstream maintenance, but operations have since normalized, although demand remains stable with core customers [4]. - Shandong manufacturers have maintained low operational rates, and supply pressure is minimal due to stable contracts with other suppliers [4]. Demand Side - The demand environment has improved since late last year, particularly in South China, driven by favorable market conditions and strong sentiment from crude oil and related products [5]. - There is an expectation of improved overseas demand, with some solvent sectors showing signs of recovery, which may enhance export opportunities [5]. - Despite the positive outlook, the overall demand recovery faces challenges due to a sluggish macroeconomic environment [5]. Cost Side - Domestic ketone prices have remained at low levels, with minimal fluctuations in raw material costs, leading to thin profit margins for major companies [5]. - Sellers are inclined to raise prices to alleviate cost pressures, as holding costs are relatively high [5]. Market Outlook - The ketone industry is expected to maintain a strong position in late January, although the extent of the increase remains uncertain [6]. - Anticipated maintenance at a major plant in Guangdong may tighten supply further, while pre-holiday replenishment expectations could support prices [6]. - However, demand may weaken as the holiday approaches, and geopolitical factors could impact overseas demand recovery [6].

Core Viewpoint - The double copper paper market is expected to stabilize and see a slight rebound in prices in November due to improved demand and reduced supply pressures, despite ongoing cost challenges [1][8]. Supply and Demand - November is anticipated to see a decrease in double copper paper production, with a projected decline of 1.07% month-on-month due to maintenance shutdowns and fewer working days [4][8]. - Demand is showing signs of recovery, driven by new publishing tenders and increased commercial activities towards the end of the year, with a projected consumption increase of 6.72% in November [4][8]. - The issuance of price increase notices by paper mills at the end of October has boosted market confidence, leading to a stabilization of prices [2][4]. Pricing Trends - As of November 7, the market price for 157g double copper paper was reported at 4770 yuan/ton, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 1.24%, although the rate of decline has narrowed compared to the previous month [2]. - Overall, the average price for November is expected to be around 4800 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 0.20% month-on-month [8]. Cost Factors - The cost of key raw materials for double copper paper production has decreased by 0.24% as of the end of October, while paper prices have dropped by 1.24%, leading to a theoretical gross margin of over -4.00% [6]. - Recent increases in the prices of wood pulp, with needle and broadleaf pulp rising by 0.64% and 0.54% respectively, indicate a potential upward pressure on production costs moving forward [6][8]. - The sentiment in the wood pulp market is improving, suggesting that prices may be more likely to rise than fall, which could further pressure the profitability of paper mills [6][8].