侯彦飞 长江证券石化分析师: 各位领导、各位投资者，大家晚上好。那我是长江石化的分析师侯艳飞。那本次的这个我 们系列电话的会议内容的话，是主要讲一下低估值的石化行业龙头，宇新股份。那这是我 们最近刚刚写完的一篇深度，也是为大家详细梳理了一下宇新股份的这样的一个公司的情 况。那我们的题目叫拓宇维新，精耕笃行。其实宇新这家公司的话，过去这些年以来，虽 然是赶上了，这样的个，从 22 年以来赶上了石化行业的下行周期。但是公司一直通过自 己的这样的一个成本端的优化，不断的实现这样的一个利润端的一个相来讲，相对来讲可 能一个底部的一个稳定。 虽然说在这个整个 25 年，盈利略微承压，但是如果我们展望这个 26、27 年左右，我们 觉得整个的盈利会有一个进步改善的空间。那下面的话，我就按照公司的主体的内容，为 大家介绍一下宇新这家公司。那首先的话？这个我们说整个公司的话，它其实是作为国内 的这个碳四产业链的龙头。那我们也知道这个国内的话，也分成这个烯烃链，就碳二碳三 这个可能碳四链大家一般了解的比较少。那实际上，碳四链我们说整个下游的这个细分的 行业还是比较多的，包括像正丁烷正丁烯、异丁烷、异丁烯，以及下游的各个细分的品 ...

Group 1 - The latest price quote for Suzhou Huayuan Chemical Co., Ltd. Qi Xiang Teng Da in Jiangsu Province is 6850 yuan per ton [1][3] - The benchmark price from the Business Society is generated based on big data and pricing models, serving as a trading guide price [1][3] - The pricing formula for settlement price is defined as: Settlement Price = Business Society Benchmark Price × K + C, where K is an adjustment coefficient and C includes various cost factors [1][3] Group 2 - The adjustment coefficient K accounts for factors such as account period costs [2][4] - The surcharge C includes logistics costs, brand price differences, and regional price differences [2][4]

宇新股份：快速成长的碳四深加工龙头国内LPG 深加工龙头。公司产品矩阵持续完善，主要产品包括 异辛烷、MTBE、乙酸仲丁酯、顺酐、丁酮、乙酸乙酯等。董事长研发出身，重视创新引领企业发展， 多管理层亦拥有技术背景，持股共享公司发展成果。公司营收稳健增长，受行业景气度影响，短期盈利 承压。 红海沉浮，创新引领，细分开拓局部蓝海 区位筑基，研发赋能，构筑成本护城河 公司凭借优越地理区位与卓越研发实力双重引擎，实现领先盈利水平。原料端靠近上游炼厂，销售端靠 近下游终端消费市场；持续研发投入为生产端带来长足发展优势，全组分利用的同时，打造物料与能源 的多重循环生产系统，高原子利用效率与经济性并行。 投资建议 作为国内LPG 深加工龙头，预计公司2025 年-2027 年归母净利润为-0.39 亿元、4.02 亿元和7.60 亿元， 2026 年级2027 年对应2026 年1 月28 日收盘价PE 为11.4X、6.0X，首次覆盖，给予"买入"评级。 风险提示 1、国际油价大幅波动；2、地缘政治风险；3、国际市场运营带来的风险；4、自然灾害、恶劣天气等自 然因素带来的风险；5、盈利预测假设不成立或不及预期的风险。 经过 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [10]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in the LPG deep processing sector in South China, leveraging its advantageous geographical location and innovative development to achieve rapid growth [3][6]. - The product matrix of the company is continuously improving, with key products including isooctane, MTBE, and butanediol, among others. The management team, with a strong technical background, emphasizes innovation to drive the company's growth [6][20]. - The company is actively expanding its market presence through chain extension, industrial collaboration, and overseas demand expansion, aiming to create new growth engines in a competitive market [3][7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in October 2009 and listed in 2020, focuses on the research and production of organic chemical products using LPG as raw material. Its main production bases are located in the Huizhou Daya Bay petrochemical area [20][23]. Product and Market Position - The company has achieved comprehensive utilization of LPG carbon four components, with a diverse product range categorized into three main types: acetate esters, gasoline additives, and the succinic anhydride industry chain [7][23]. - The company has a significant market share in MTBE, becoming the largest exporter in China, and is expanding its production capacity to meet growing overseas demand [8][10]. Financial Performance - The company expects net profits for 2025-2027 to be -39 million, 402 million, and 760 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 11.4X and 6.0X for 2026 and 2027 [10]. - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 7.701 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.51%, despite facing profit pressure due to consumption tax impacts on isooctane [43]. Research and Development - The company places a strong emphasis on R&D, with over 15% of its workforce dedicated to innovation. The management team consists of individuals with substantial technical expertise, which supports the company's focus on product upgrades and cost reduction through technological advancements [30][34].

Core Viewpoint - The company has successfully launched its production projects for maleic anhydride and methyl isobutyl ketone, expanding its product offerings and enhancing operational efficiency [2]. Group 1: Production and Capacity - The company’s light hydrocarbon comprehensive utilization project (Phase I) includes a maleic anhydride production capacity of 240,000 tons per year and a granulation project with a capacity of 100,000 tons per year, both of which have been successfully put into operation [2]. - The company’s methyl isobutyl ketone production capacity stands at 100,000 tons per year, utilizing a self-developed process that is more cost-effective than the commonly used olefin hydration method in the domestic market [2]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - The company employs a n-butane oxidation process for maleic anhydride production, which not only generates maleic anhydride but also produces significant amounts of steam for use in other facilities, leading to substantial benefits for the company [2]. - A 500 tons per year maleic anhydride catalyst facility has been established, allowing the company to conduct in-depth research on reactions, optimize conditions, reduce production costs, and enhance competitiveness within the industry [2]. Group 3: Product Diversification - The company is working on upgrading the quality of ethanol produced alongside methyl isobutyl ketone, aiming to create diversified products that align with the needs of downstream electronic chemical clients [2].

Core Viewpoint - Yuxin Co., Ltd. (002986.SZ) expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company to be between -50 million and -35 million yuan for 2025, with a net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses projected to be between -70 million and -50 million yuan [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's main products, including methyl tert-butyl ether, maleic anhydride, isopropanol, and butanone, are facing price pressure due to changes in industry supply and demand dynamics, leading to a narrowing of the price difference between products and raw materials [1] - The shutdown of the isooctane unit has also exerted pressure on gross margins [1] Group 2: Operational Challenges - During the reporting period, the subsidiary Boke New Materials' light hydrocarbon comprehensive utilization project faced challenges in stability during trial production due to adverse weather and the lack of operational infrastructure, resulting in high material loss and switching costs [1] - The production facilities of subsidiaries Yuxin Chemical and Yuxin New Materials underwent planned maintenance shutdowns, and Yuxin Chemical experienced a temporary shutdown due to a safety production accident, impacting current production levels [1] - The company has completed maintenance and resumed production, with plans to enhance safety management to ensure stable operations moving forward [1] Group 3: Market Conditions - The biodegradable materials market is currently in a downturn due to a combination of policy and demand-side factors, leading to the PBAT production unit of the subsidiary Boke New Materials not being put into production, which has temporarily hindered its economic benefits [1] - The company has made impairment provisions for related assets based on a cautious approach [1]

Core Viewpoint - Yuxin Co., Ltd. is expected to report a net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company for 2025 in the range of -50 million to -35 million yuan, indicating a significant year-on-year decrease of 117.37% to 124.32% in net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses [1] Group 1: Performance Forecast - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 to be between -50 million and -35 million yuan [1] - The expected net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between -70 million and -50 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 117.37% to 124.32% [1] Group 2: Reasons for Performance Change - The company's main products, including methyl tert-butyl ether, maleic anhydride, isopropanol, and butanone, are facing price pressure due to changes in industry supply and demand dynamics, leading to a narrowing price spread between products and raw materials [1] - The shutdown of the isooctane facility has also negatively impacted gross margins [1] - The subsidiary Boke New Materials' light hydrocarbon comprehensive utilization project faced challenges during trial production due to adverse weather and infrastructure issues, resulting in high material loss and switching costs [1] - Scheduled maintenance at subsidiaries Yuxin Chemical and Yuxin New Materials, along with a temporary shutdown due to a safety incident at Yuxin Chemical, affected production volumes [1] - The biodegradable materials market is currently in a downturn due to policy and demand factors, leading to the non-operation of Boke New Materials' PBAT production facility and the need for impairment provisions on related assets [1]

进入2026年，在供需矛盾缓和及出口表现向好等因素支撑下，丁酮市场触底反弹，华东地区丁酮现货报 价集中于6300～6350元(吨价，下同)。然而，本轮涨势并非市场筑底完成的信号，在核心矛盾难以化解 的前提下，丁酮市场或将复制2025年的疲软走势，全年市场均价存在创近年新低的风险。 供应弹性或成常态 生意社分析指出，丁酮市场持续处于近年低位区间的核心原因，在于供应面始终保持充裕。2025年，国 内丁酮总有效产能已攀升至109.7万吨，创下历史新高。其中，正丁烯水合法产能为84.7万吨/年，醋酸 仲丁酯法产能为25万吨/年。 相较于前几年，正丁烯水合法丁酮企业的利润空间已明显收缩。通常情况下，只有当市场价格逼近成本 线时，主要生产企业才会被迫降负荷运行或停车检修，行业借此实现短期好转，丁酮利润也仅在局部时 段出现一定修复。而另一工艺路线——醋酸仲丁酯法丁酮企业的盈利能力更弱，2025年多数时间处于亏 损状态，因此这类企业多以切换生产醋酸仲丁酯为主。 金联创分析师杨广智认为，2026年醚后碳四大概率延续弱势运行态势。丁酮企业成本压力减轻的同时， 个别时段或存在获利空间扩大的可能，但盈利改善将刺激存量产能满负荷释放及 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic ketone market is experiencing a recovery phase due to easing supply-demand tensions and strong market sentiment, with prices at a five-year low, leading to a potential upward trend in the industry [1][4]. Supply Side - As of early January 2026, the price of ketone in East China is around 6300-6350 RMB/ton, while in South China it is approximately 6450-6500 RMB/ton [1][4]. - In December 2025, major manufacturers in Guangdong faced low operational rates due to upstream maintenance, but operations have since normalized, although demand remains stable with core customers [4]. - Shandong manufacturers have maintained low operational rates, and supply pressure is minimal due to stable contracts with other suppliers [4]. Demand Side - The demand environment has improved since late last year, particularly in South China, driven by favorable market conditions and strong sentiment from crude oil and related products [5]. - There is an expectation of improved overseas demand, with some solvent sectors showing signs of recovery, which may enhance export opportunities [5]. - Despite the positive outlook, the overall demand recovery faces challenges due to a sluggish macroeconomic environment [5]. Cost Side - Domestic ketone prices have remained at low levels, with minimal fluctuations in raw material costs, leading to thin profit margins for major companies [5]. - Sellers are inclined to raise prices to alleviate cost pressures, as holding costs are relatively high [5]. Market Outlook - The ketone industry is expected to maintain a strong position in late January, although the extent of the increase remains uncertain [6]. - Anticipated maintenance at a major plant in Guangdong may tighten supply further, while pre-holiday replenishment expectations could support prices [6]. - However, demand may weaken as the holiday approaches, and geopolitical factors could impact overseas demand recovery [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent volatility in the chemical industry due to international trade dynamics, with specific focus on Longbai Group's acquisition of Venator UK's titanium dioxide production assets [2] - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell by 2.22%, while the Shenwan Basic Chemical Index dropped by 5.83%, indicating a significant underperformance compared to the broader market [3] - All sub-sectors within the basic chemical industry reported negative performance, with notable declines in synthetic resins, modified plastics, and coatings [3] Group 2 - Longbai Group signed an asset acquisition agreement to purchase Venator UK's titanium dioxide production facility for $69.9 million, which is significant given the changing global chemical landscape [2] - The European chemical industry is experiencing a decline, with a reported 30% drop in chemical production in the UK and a 12% decrease in France, leading to a restructuring of the global chemical supply chain [2] - The report suggests that China's chemical industry is well-positioned to fill the gaps in the international supply chain due to its cost advantages and technological advancements [2][5] Group 3 - Recent price tracking indicates that NYMEX natural gas saw an increase of 8.00%, while acetone prices in East China fell by 4.80% [3] - The report emphasizes the potential for structural optimization in supply, with a focus on sectors like organic silicon and membrane materials that may benefit from supply-side reforms [5] - The demand for health additives and sugar substitutes is rising, driven by new consumer trends and regulatory support, which could lead to growth in the food additives sector [6]