大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 1 / 3 胶版印刷纸日报 2025 年 8 月 26 日 胶版印刷纸日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 双胶纸相关(日) | | | | 铜版纸相关 (日) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 价格 | 日环比(%) | 周同比(%) | 指标 | 价格 | 日环比(%) | 周同比(%) | | 双胶纸70g: 河北:晨鸣云豹 | 4900 | 0.00% | 0.00% | | | | | | 双胶纸70g: 北京:中冶银河 | 4550 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 双铜纸157g: 北京: 太阳天阳 | 5100 | 0.00% | -0.97% | | 双胶纸70g: 北京:华夏太阳 | 5000 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 双铜纸157g: 广东:晨鸣雪兔 | 5100 | 0.00% | -0.97% | | 双胶纸70g: 广东: 晨鸣云镜 | 5000 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 双铜纸157g: 广东: 华夏太阳 | 5300 | 0.00% | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The double - offset paper market remained stable overall, with limited changes in market transactions due to increased wait - and - see sentiment among industry players as the double - offset paper futures approached. Although production increased slightly, demand did not improve, and inventory rose. Paper mills had a strong willingness to maintain prices due to cost and profit considerations [5][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Double - offset paper prices**: The prices of 70g double - offset paper in various regions remained unchanged on a daily and weekly basis. For example, the price of 70g double - offset paper of Chenming Yunbao in Hebei was 4900 yuan/ton, with 0.00% daily and weekly changes [3]. - **Copperplate paper prices**: The prices of 157g double - copper paper were stable daily, but most had a week - on - week decline. For example, the price of 157g double - copper paper of Taiyang Tianyang in Beijing was 5100 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decline of 0.97% [3]. - **Pulp prices**: The prices of some types of pulp declined. The price of coniferous pulp of Yinxing in Shanghai was 5850 yuan/ton, with a daily and weekly decline of 0.85%. The price of Russian - brand coniferous pulp in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai region was 5150 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.90% and a weekly decline of 2.83% [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Market situation**: The double - offset paper market was generally stable. Dealer shipments did not improve significantly, and new orders from downstream printing factories were average. The wait - and - see sentiment increased as the futures approached [5]. - **Price in Shandong**: The mainstream negotiated price of high - whiteness double - offset paper in the Shandong market was 4850 - 4900 yuan/ton, and the price of some natural - whiteness double - offset paper was in the range of 4500 - 4700 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous day [5]. - **Wood chip market**: The purchase price of wood chips was mainly stable, with individual price increases. The purchase price of poplar chips in some northern regions was in the range of 1120 - 1400 yuan/absolute dry ton. Some pulp mills in Shandong planned to resume production, but the increase in market supply was not significant [5]. - **Inventory and production**: The inventory days of double - offset paper increased by 0.60% compared to last Thursday. The weekly operating rate was 48.52%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points. The production increased by 0.1 million tons to 20.8 million tons, a growth of 0.5%. The production enterprise inventory was 117.8 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2% [5][8]. - **Logic analysis**: Some paper machines were transferred or cross - scheduled, and there were planned maintenance on some production lines. Seasonal printing orders were coming to an end, and social orders were not boosted. Paper mills had a strong willingness to maintain prices to ensure profits. Pulp prices remained low, with high port inventories and sufficient supply [8]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides four figures, including double - offset paper production, in - factory inventory, social inventory, and production profit, with data from 2021 - 2025 [11][14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content. 3. Content Summaries by Relevant Aspects SP Main Contract Price - The closing price of the SP main contract on August 14, 2025, was 5318.00, with a daily increase of 0.30177%. The closing prices on previous days were 5302.00 (Aug 13), 5264.00 (Aug 12), 5246.00 (Aug 11), and 5162.00 (Aug 08) [3]. - The converted US - dollar prices on these days were 647.46 (Aug 14), 645.26 (Aug 13), 639.19 (Aug 12), 637.80 (Aug 11), and 627.38 (Aug 08) [3]. - The basis for Shandong Yinxing on these days were 542 (Aug 14), 558 (Aug 13), 586 (Aug 12), 604 (Aug 11), and 673 (Aug 08), and for Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai Yinxing were 582 (Aug 14), 598 (Aug 13), 636 (Aug 12), 654 (Aug 11), and 738 (Aug 08) [3]. Pulp Import Price and Profit - With a 13% VAT calculation, for Canadian pulp, the CFR price of Golden Lion was 780 US dollars, with an import profit of 60.36 yuan in Shandong; the CFR price of Lion was 730 US dollars, with an import loss of 359.53 yuan in Shandong. For Chilean pulp, the CFR price of Yinxing (90 - day letter of credit) was 720 US dollars, with an import loss of 43.51 yuan in Shandong [4]. Pulp and Paper Product Prices and Margins - From August 8 to August 14, 2025, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged, as did the average prices in Shandong [4]. - The indices of cultural paper (double - offset, double - copper), packaging paper (white card), and living paper remained unchanged from August 11 to August 14, 2025 [4]. - The estimated profit margins of double - offset paper decreased from 6.3015% on August 11 to 4.8347% on August 14; double - copper paper decreased from 24.1238% to 22.6500%; white card paper remained at a loss of around - 12%; and living paper decreased from 7.7189% to 6.7640% [4]. Pulp Price Spreads - From August 8 to August 14, 2025, the price spreads between softwood and hardwood pulp decreased from 1700 to 1660; between softwood and natural pulp increased from 435 to 460; between softwood and chemimechanical pulp increased from 2010 to 2035; and between softwood pulp and waste paper increased from 4259 to 4284 [4].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a pulp morning report released on August 13, 2025, by the energy and chemical team of the research center [2] Group 2: SP Main Contract Information - The closing price of the SP main contract on August 12, 2025, was 5264.00 [3] - The closing prices on previous days were 5246.00 (August 11), 5162.00 (August 8), 5186.00 (August 7), and 5170.00 (August 6) [3] - The corresponding US dollar - converted prices were 639.19, 637.80, 627.38, 630.76, and 627.72 respectively [3] - The daily price changes were 0.34312% (August 12), 1.62728% (August 11), - 0.46278% (August 8), 0.30948% (August 7), and 0.19380% (August 6) [3] - The basis of Shandong Yinxing was 586 (August 12), 604 (August 11), 673 (August 8), 624 (August 7), and 640 (August 6) [3] - The basis of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai Yinxing was 636 (August 12), 654 (August 11), 738 (August 8), 714 (August 7), and 730 (August 6) [3] Group 3: Import Profit and Price Information - With a 13% VAT calculation, for Canadian pulp: the CFR price of Golden Lion was 780 US dollars, the RMB price in Shandong was 6450, and the import profit was 42.73; the CFR price of Lion was 730 US dollars, the RMB price in Shandong was 5600, and the import profit was - 401.03 [4] - For Chilean pulp, the CFR price of Silver Star with a 90 - day letter of credit was 720 US dollars, the RMB price in Shandong was 5850, and the import profit was - 69.78 [4] Group 4: Pulp and Paper Price and Margin Information - From August 6 to August 12, 2025, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6073.75, 4810.75, 5415.00, and 3686.25 respectively; the average prices in Shandong also remained unchanged [4] - The indices of cultural paper (double - offset and double - copper), packaging paper (white card), and living paper remained unchanged from August 7 to August 12, 2025 [4] - The estimated profit margins of double - offset paper decreased from 6.4302% on August 7 to 5.3503% on August 12; double - copper paper decreased from 24.2360% to 22.6786%; white card paper remained at - 12.0732%; and living paper decreased from 8.3301% to 7.4897% [4] Group 5: Pulp Price Difference Information - The price differences between softwood and hardwood pulp, softwood and natural pulp, softwood and chemimechanical pulp, and softwood and waste paper pulp from August 6 to August 12, 2025, showed some changes. For example, the softwood - hardwood price difference was 1685.00 on August 12 [4]

Group 1: Report Information - The report is a pulp morning report from the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center dated August 6, 2025 [2] Group 2: SP Main Contract Closing Price - On August 5, 2025, the SP main contract closing price was 5160.00, with a decrease of -0.15480% from the previous day. The closing prices from August 4 to July 30, 2025 were 5168.00, 5186.00, 5232.00, and 5326.00 respectively, showing a downward trend [3] - The corresponding converted US dollar prices were 626.69, 628.64, 627.89, 635.08, and 647.61 respectively [3] - The Shandong Yinxing basis was 650, and the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai Yinxing basis was 740 on August 5, 2025 [3] Group 3: Import Profit and Price Information - With a 13% VAT calculation, the import profit for Canadian Golden Lion pulp was 42.73, while for Canadian Lion pulp it was -366.03, and for Chilean Yinxing pulp it was -109.78 [4] - The national average prices of coniferous pulp, broadleaf pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged from July 30 to August 5, 2025. The same was true for the Shandong regional average prices [4] - The prices of cultural paper (double - offset index, double - copper index), packaging paper (white card index), and living paper (living index) also remained unchanged during this period [4] - The profit margins of double - offset paper, double - copper paper, white card paper, and living paper showed an increasing trend from July 31 to August 5, 2025, with changes of 0.1287, 0.1122, 0.0976, and 0.5539 respectively [4] - The price differences between coniferous and broadleaf pulp, coniferous and natural pulp, coniferous and chemimechanical pulp, and coniferous and waste paper pulp all showed a decreasing trend from July 30 to August 5, 2025 [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The pulp futures main contract SP2509 rebounded from a low level. However, the overall demand improvement in the pulp market is still poor. The port inventory is at a high level in recent years, and the de - stocking rhythm is slow. It is in the traditional off - season of the papermaking industry, and the downstream paper mills' enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials is insufficient. The market is in a dynamic game with cost support at the bottom, and it is recommended to adopt an interval - oscillation approach [7][36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The pulp futures main contract SP2509 rebounded from a low level [7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Pulp Market Prices**: As of July 10, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5,806 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from last week, with the decline narrowing by 0.88 percentage points; the weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4,066 yuan/ton, up 0.20% from last week, turning from a decline to an increase; the weekly average price of imported unbleached pulp was 5,115 yuan/ton, down 0.78% from last week, with the decline widening by 0.16 percentage points; the weekly average price of imported chemi - mechanical pulp was 3,767 yuan/ton, down 0.21% from last week, with the decline remaining the same as last week [12]. - **Pulp Import Volume in May**: According to the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China, the pulp import volume in May was 3.016 million tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to May 2025 was 15.55 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. Among them, the cumulative import volume of softwood pulp from January to May 2025 was 3.803 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.88%; the cumulative import volume of hardwood pulp from January to May 2025 was 7.1081 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.03% [16]. - **Port Inventory Situation**: As of July 10, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports such as Baoding, Tianjin Port, Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, Shanghai Port, Gaolan Port, and Nansha Port was 2.1857 million tons, up 0.45% from last week, with the growth rate narrowing by 1.87 percentage points [20]. - **European Port Inventory in May**: According to Europulp data, the total European port inventory in May 2025 increased by 13.26% month - on - month and 22.04% compared with May 2024. The port inventories in the UK and Spain decreased by 39.93% and 3.92% month - on - month respectively, while the port inventories in the Netherlands/Belgium/France/Switzerland, Germany, and Italy increased by 21.74%, 5.12%, and 16.36% month - on - month respectively. Overall, the port inventories in most European countries increased month - on - month, leading to an increase in the total European port inventory in May [23]. - **Consumption Situation**: Waste pulp consumption is the main consumption method of pulp in China, accounting for 63% of the total pulp consumption; wood pulp consumption accounts for 31% of the total pulp consumption, and imported wood pulp consumption accounts for 21% of the total pulp consumption; non - wood pulp consumption accounts for 6% of the total pulp consumption. As of July 10, the operating load rate of double - copper paper remained the same as last week; the operating load rate of double - offset paper decreased by 0.85 percentage points from last week; the operating load rate of white cardboard increased by 1.01 percentage points from last week; the operating load rate of household paper increased by 4.44 percentage points from last week [29]. 3.3 Future Outlook - As of July 10, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 2.1857 million tons, up 0.45% from last week, with the growth rate narrowing by 1.87 percentage points. The port has been accumulating inventory in the past two weeks, and the pulp port inventory is at a high level in recent years, with a slow de - stocking rhythm. Currently, it is the traditional off - season of the papermaking industry, and the profitability improvement of paper enterprises is poor. The downstream paper mills' enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials is insufficient, and the spot market trading is not active. There is also certain cost support at the bottom, and it is recommended to adopt an interval - oscillation approach [36].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current demand side dominates the pulp price trend. With stable domestic pulp supply and market dynamic gaming, the center of the transaction price may continue to be weak. The operating load rate of downstream paper mills is difficult to increase significantly, and the market lacks confidence. However, the relatively firm FOB quotations of hardwood pulp may provide some support to the spot market. It is expected that the pulp price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term. Currently, the pulp futures market has reached a low - level range, and whether it can rebound depends on the stabilization of demand and the macro - situation. If there is no obvious improvement, the rebound height may be limited [35] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. This Week's Market Review - The main contract of pulp futures, SP2509, hovered at a low level [6] 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Pulp Market Price**: As of July 3, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5,824 yuan/ton, down 1.19% from last week, and the decline rate widened by 0.32 percentage points compared with the previous period; the weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4,058 yuan/ton, down 1.39% from last week, and the decline rate widened by 0.76 percentage points; the weekly average price of imported natural pulp was 5,155 yuan/ton, down 0.62% from last week, turning from stable to declining; the weekly average price of imported chemimechanical pulp was 3,775 yuan/ton, down 0.21% from last week, turning from stable to declining [13] - **Pulp Import Volume**: In May, the pulp import volume was 3.016 million tons. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import volume was 15.55 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. Among them, from January to May 2025, the cumulative import of softwood pulp was 3.803 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.88%; the cumulative import of hardwood pulp was 7.1081 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.03% [17][35] - **Port Inventory**: As of July 3, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports such as Baoding, Tianjin Port, Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, Shanghai Port, Gaolan Port, and Nansha Port was 2.176 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.32%, turning from a decline to an increase [21] - **European Port Inventory in May**: In May 2025, the total inventory in European ports increased by 13.26% month - on - month and 22.04% compared with May 2024. In May, the port inventories in the UK and Spain decreased by 39.93% and 3.92% month - on - month respectively, while the port inventories in the Netherlands/Belgium/France/Switzerland, Germany, and Italy increased by 21.74%, 5.12%, and 16.36% month - on - month respectively. Overall, the port inventories in most European countries increased month - on - month, leading to an increase in the total European port inventory in May [24] - **Consumption Situation**: Waste pulp consumption is the main consumption method of pulp in China, accounting for 63% of the total pulp consumption; wood pulp consumption accounts for 31% of the total pulp consumption, and imported wood pulp consumption accounts for 21% of the total pulp consumption; non - wood pulp consumption accounts for 6% of the total pulp consumption. The operating load rate of double - copper paper remained flat at 62.60% month - on - month; the operating load rate of double - offset paper was 49.10% this week, down 0.87 percentage points from last week; the weekly operating load rate and output of the white cardboard industry declined compared with last week, with the operating load rate dropping by 0.44 percentage points and the output decreasing by 0.67%, and the decline rate narrowing by 0.44 percentage points compared with last week; the operating load rate of the sampled household paper enterprises decreased by 1.71 percentage points compared with last week, and the decline rate widened by 1.10 percentage points, and the output decreased by 2.88% compared with last week, and the decline rate widened by 1.86 percentage points [30] 3. Future Outlook - The current demand side dominates the pulp price trend. With stable domestic pulp supply and market dynamic gaming, the center of the transaction price may continue to be weak. The operating load rate of downstream paper mills is difficult to increase significantly, and the market lacks confidence. However, the relatively firm FOB quotations of hardwood pulp may provide some support to the spot market. It is expected that the pulp price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term. Currently, the pulp futures market has reached a low - level range, and whether it can rebound depends on the stabilization of demand and the macro - situation. If there is no obvious improvement, the rebound height may be limited [35]

2025年6月22日 研究所 主力合约移仓换月，盘面大幅下跌 ——国信期货纸浆周报 3 后市展望 目 录 CONTENTS 研究所 1 本周行情回顾 2 基本面分析 研究所 第 P 一 a 部 r 分 t1 行情回顾 一、本周行情回顾 研究所 纸浆期货主力合约完成移仓换月。SP2509大幅下跌，周度跌幅1.5%。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：文华财经 国信期货 4 研究所 第 P 二 a 部 r 分 t2 基本面分析 二、基本面分析：纸浆市场价格 研究所 卓创资讯监测数据显示，截至6月19日，本周进口针叶浆周均价5946元/吨，较上周下跌0.72%，由稳转跌；进口阔叶浆周均价4141元/吨，较上周下跌0.48% ，由涨转跌；进口本色浆周均价5187元/吨，较上周下跌1.61%，跌幅较上期扩大0.86个百分点；进口化机浆周均价3783元/吨，较上周下跌0.92%，跌幅较 上期扩大0.40个百分点。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：Choice 国信期货 6 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：Choice ...

纸浆早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/06/13 SP主力合约收盘价： 5268.00 | 日期 | 2025/06/12 | 2025/06/11 | 2025/06/10 | 2025/06/09 | 2025/06/06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5268.00 | 5346.00 | 5376.00 | 5394.00 | 5280.00 | | 折美元价 | 640.45 | 649.76 | 653.35 | 655.85 | 641.73 | | 距上一日涨跌 | -1.45903% | -0.55804% | -0.33370% | 2.15909% | 0.00000% | | 山东银星基差 | 867 | 814 | 824 | 766 | 880 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | 882 | 854 | 839 | 806 | 920 | 以13%增值税计算 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No information provided 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs SP Main Contract Information - The closing price of the SP main contract on May 30, 2025, was 5414.00 [2] - The closing prices, converted US dollar prices, daily price changes, and basis differences in Shandong and Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai regions from May 26 to May 30, 2025, are presented in a tabular format [2] Import Profit and Price Information - Import profit calculations for different pulp brands from various origins (Canada, Chile) are provided, including details such as port US dollar prices, Shandong region RMB prices, and import profits [3] - The exchange rate used for the previous day was 7.20, and the calculations are based on a 13% VAT [3] Pulp and Paper Price Averages - National and Shandong region average prices for different types of pulp (coniferous, broadleaf, natural, chemimechanical) from May 26 to May 30, 2025, showed no change [3] - Price indices and profit margins for different types of paper (cultural, packaging, living) from May 27 to May 30, 2025, are presented, with minor changes in profit margins [3] Pulp Price Differences - Price differences between coniferous pulp and other types of pulp (broadleaf, natural, chemimechanical, waste paper) from May 26 to May 30, 2025, are provided [3]