| 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 加拿大 | 金狮 | CFR | 780 | 6300 | 69.01 | | | 雄狮 | CFR | 730 | 5590 | -246.05 | | 智利 | 银星 | CFR信用证 90天 | 700 | 5590 | -9.09 | 注：上一日汇率 - 6.99 美元价格以及人民币价格均采用卓创数据，以13%增值税计算 | 日期 | | | 全国均价 | | | | 山东地区均价 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 针叶浆 | 阔叶浆 | 本色浆 | 化机浆 | 针叶浆 | 阔叶浆 | 本色浆 | 化机浆 | | 2025/12/30 | 6073.75 | 4810.75 | 5415.00 | 3686.25 | 6245.00 | 4775.00 | 5400.00 | 3600.00 | | 2025/12/31 | 6073.7 ...

纸浆早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/01/07 SP主力合约收盘价： 5612.00 | 日期 | 2026/01/06 | 2026/01/05 | 2025/12/31 | 2025/12/30 | 2025/12/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5612.00 | 5530.00 | 5532.00 | 5568.00 | 5510.00 | | 折美元价 | 702.51 | 692.18 | 691.61 | 696.05 | 686.78 | | 距上一日涨跌 | 1.48282% | -0.03615% | -0.64655% | 1.05263% | -2.13144% | | 山东银星基差 | -22 | 35 | 58 | 22 | 80 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | -22 | 30 | 28 | -8 | 50 | 以13%增值税计算 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 加 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3] Core Views - The report highlights the opportunity in the paper sector due to the recent appreciation of the RMB against the USD, which enhances domestic purchasing power and reduces costs for imported raw materials like wood pulp [5][6] - The report suggests focusing on companies with high wood pulp procurement costs, such as Zhongshun Jierou, and recommends Sun Paper for its integrated advantages in cultural paper production [5][6] - The report also emphasizes the potential for improved profitability in Q4 due to stabilized and rising pulp prices, alongside the release of new production capacity [5][6] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The light industry sector includes 167 listed companies with a total market value of 1,204.38 billion CNY and a circulating market value of 954.25 billion CNY [1] Market Performance - For the week of December 22-26, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.88%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 3.53%. The light industry index gained 1.69%, ranking 16th among 28 Shenwan industries [10] - The paper sector saw a weekly increase of 4.47%, while the textile and apparel index rose by 2.86% [10] Key Company Recommendations - Sun Paper: Buy rating with projected EPS growth from 1.10 CNY in 2023 to 1.48 CNY in 2027, with a PE ratio decreasing from 14.25 to 10.60 [3] - Baiya Co.: Buy rating with projected EPS growth from 0.54 CNY in 2023 to 1.28 CNY in 2027, with a PE ratio decreasing from 38.94 to 16.49 [3] - Huali Group: Buy rating with projected EPS growth from 2.74 CNY in 2023 to 3.97 CNY in 2027, with a PE ratio decreasing from 19.24 to 13.27 [3] Raw Material Price Trends - The report notes fluctuations in raw material prices, with MDI and TDI prices decreasing, while cotton prices have shown an upward trend [18][22] - The average price of wood pulp and various paper products is tracked, indicating a mixed performance with some prices stabilizing and others showing slight increases [42] Housing Market Data - The report highlights a significant decline in property sales, with a 39.1% year-on-year decrease in transactions among major cities [31] - Cumulative property sales area from January to November 2025 shows a 7.8% decline year-on-year [59] Consumer Goods and AI Applications - The report discusses the potential of AI applications in consumer goods, particularly in the context of new product launches and market expansion opportunities [6] Conclusion - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the paper sector due to favorable currency movements and suggests specific companies for investment based on their cost structures and market positions [5][6]

11 月包装纸延续上涨，文化纸待回暖 [Table_Industry] 造纸业 造纸行业月报 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘佳昆(分析师) | 021-38038184 | liujiakun@gtht.com | S0880524040004 | | 王文杰(分析师) | 021-23185637 | wangwenjie4@gtht.com | S0880525040070 | 本报告导读： 11 月阔叶浆价格上涨，白卡纸继续发布提价函，文化纸价格企稳，黑纸持续上涨， 盈利略有承压，我们预计 12 月浆价持续上涨，白纸价格逐步传导，黑纸延续上涨。 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [Table_Report] 相关报告 造纸业《10 月包装纸表现较好，文化纸需求较 弱》2025.11.16 造纸业《全球视角看阔叶木材供需变化趋势》 2025.10.26 造纸业《9 月多数纸种价格上涨，文化纸表现疲 软》2025.10.15 造纸业《8 月木浆及黑 ...

纸浆早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/08 | 日期 | 2025/12/05 | 2025/12/04 | 2025/12/03 | 2025/12/02 | 2025/12/01 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5450.00 | 5496.00 | 5458.00 | 5328.00 | 5190.00 | | 折美元价 | 679.27 | 679.27 | 674.79 | 658.04 | 640.65 | | 距上一日涨跌 | -0.83697% | 0.69623% | 2.43994% | 2.65896% | -0.15391% | | 山东银星基差 | 50 | 29 | 67 | 97 | 185 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | 115 | 79 | 67 | 97 | 195 | 以13%增值税计算 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 加拿大 | 金狮 | CFR | 780 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in pulp futures prices is primarily driven by marginal improvements in the market fundamentals, following a period of decline due to oversupply and high inventory levels [4][17]. Supply Side - In October, China's pulp imports totaled 2.618 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.95%. However, cumulative imports from January to October 2025 increased by 4.79% to 29.674 million tons [7]. - The average operating rate for broadleaf pulp in November was 62.5%, down 7.7 percentage points month-on-month, indicating some production adjustments in the industry [7]. Inventory Side - As of the end of November, the total pulp inventory at major Chinese ports was approximately 2.031 million tons, an increase of 6.17% from the previous month, reflecting a growing inventory pressure [9]. - The import volume of pulp is expected to see only a slight increase in December due to ongoing high inventory levels and weak external market performance [9]. Demand Side - The average operating rate for various paper types in November was 61.29%, showing a month-on-month increase of 1.78 percentage points. However, production levels for life paper decreased by 2.71% compared to the previous month [11]. - The overall price performance of different paper types in November was mixed, with life paper prices slightly rising while other types like double copper paper continued to decline [12]. Market Sentiment - Recent market analysis indicates that the pulp market is experiencing a rebound due to the digestion of previous negative factors and the emergence of new balance, with cost support and improved market sentiment driving prices upward [17][19]. - Despite the recent price increases, the market remains cautious due to high inventory levels and the need for substantial improvements in demand to sustain long-term price increases [18][19].

Report Summary Report Information - Report title: Pulp Morning Report - Research team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Date: December 2, 2025 [2] Core Data - SP main contract closing price on December 1, 2025: 5190.00 [3] - Price changes from November 25 - December 1, 2025: closing price decreased from 5212.00 to 5190.00, with a daily change of -0.15391% on December 1; converted US - dollar price decreased from 641.47 to 641.02; Shandong Yinxing basis decreased from 253 to 185; Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai Yinxing basis decreased from 238 to 195 [3] - Import profit on December 1, 2025: Canada's Golden Lion - 110.31, Lion - 600.29; Chile's Yinxing - 135.27 [4] - National average price from November 25 - December 1, 2025: no change in the average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp; for paper products, cultural paper, packaging paper prices remained unchanged, while the living paper index increased by 2; profit margins of double - offset paper remained unchanged, double - copper paper increased by 0.0163, white cardboard increased by 0.0117, and living paper increased by 0.7022 [4] - Price differences on December 1, 2025: softwood - hardwood pulp price difference 925.00, softwood - natural pulp price difference - 25, softwood - chemimechanical pulp price difference 1575, softwood - waste paper price difference 3799 [4][5] Core View The report presents the price data of the SP main contract, import profit, national average price of pulp and paper products, and price differences in the pulp market from November 25 - December 1, 2025, reflecting the current market price trends and profit situations [3][4][5]

研究所 延续下跌，进口成本端仍有支撑 ——国信期货纸浆周报 2025年11月28日 3 后市展望 目 录 CONTENTS 研究所 研究所 第 P 一 a 部 r 分 t1 行情回顾 一、本周行情回顾 研究所 纸浆期货主力合约SP2601延续下跌，跌势略有放缓。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：文华财经 国信期货 4 1 本周行情回顾 2 基本面分析 研究所 第 P 二 a 部 r 分 t2 基本面分析 二、基本面分析：纸浆市场价格 研究所 卓创资讯监测数据显示，截至11月27日，进口针叶浆周均价5464元/吨，周度环比下跌1.85%，由涨转跌；进口阔叶浆周均价4390元/吨，周度环比下跌 0.05%，由涨转跌。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：Choice 卓创资讯 国信期货 6 二、基本面分析：1-10月纸浆累计进口量增加 研究所 据中华人民共和国海关总署数据显示，2025年10月，我国进口纸浆261.8万吨，进口金额为1531.7百万美元，平均单价为585.06美元/吨。1月至10月 累计进口量及金额较去年同期分别增加4.8%、-2 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report presents data on pulp prices, including SP main - contract closing prices, import prices, and prices of different types of pulp and paper products, showing that prices have remained stable recently [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Futures Data - On November 27, 2025, the SP main - contract closing price was 5184.00, with a decline compared to previous days. The decline rate on November 27 was - 0.46083% [1] - The discount to US dollar price on November 27 was 642.20, and the basis of Shandong Yinxing and Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai Yinxing were 241 and 251 respectively [1] Pulp Import Data - With a 13% VAT calculation, the import of Canadian Golden Lion, Canadian Lion, and Chilean Silver Star pulp all showed losses. The import profits were - 110.31, - 555.29, and - 85.27 respectively [2] Pulp and Paper Product Price Data - From November 21 to November 27, 2025, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged, and the average prices in Shandong area also remained unchanged [2] - The prices of cultural paper (double - offset index, double - copper index), packaging paper (white - card index), and tissue paper (tissue index) remained unchanged from November 24 to November 27, 2025 [2] Pulp and Paper Product Profit Margin Data - From November 24 to November 27, 2025, the estimated profit margins of double - offset paper, double - copper paper, white - card paper, and tissue paper changed. The changes were 0.6808, 0.1304, 0.0934, and 0.1146 respectively [2] Pulp Price Difference Data - From November 21 to November 27, 2025, the price differences between softwood and hardwood pulp, softwood and natural pulp, softwood and chemimechanical pulp, and softwood pulp and waste paper all showed certain changes [2]

Core Viewpoint - The double copper paper market is expected to stabilize and see a slight rebound in prices in November due to improved demand and reduced supply pressures, despite ongoing cost challenges [1][8]. Supply and Demand - November is anticipated to see a decrease in double copper paper production, with a projected decline of 1.07% month-on-month due to maintenance shutdowns and fewer working days [4][8]. - Demand is showing signs of recovery, driven by new publishing tenders and increased commercial activities towards the end of the year, with a projected consumption increase of 6.72% in November [4][8]. - The issuance of price increase notices by paper mills at the end of October has boosted market confidence, leading to a stabilization of prices [2][4]. Pricing Trends - As of November 7, the market price for 157g double copper paper was reported at 4770 yuan/ton, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 1.24%, although the rate of decline has narrowed compared to the previous month [2]. - Overall, the average price for November is expected to be around 4800 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 0.20% month-on-month [8]. Cost Factors - The cost of key raw materials for double copper paper production has decreased by 0.24% as of the end of October, while paper prices have dropped by 1.24%, leading to a theoretical gross margin of over -4.00% [6]. - Recent increases in the prices of wood pulp, with needle and broadleaf pulp rising by 0.64% and 0.54% respectively, indicate a potential upward pressure on production costs moving forward [6][8]. - The sentiment in the wood pulp market is improving, suggesting that prices may be more likely to rise than fall, which could further pressure the profitability of paper mills [6][8].