行业 纸浆月报 日期 2025 年 10 月 10 日 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635727 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅多晶硅） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 旺季提振有限，低位震荡调整 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summa ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the light industry sector [7][11]. Core Insights - The light industry sector's revenue increased by 3.59% year-on-year in Q2 2025, reaching 1580.45 billion yuan, while H1 2025 saw a 2.34% increase to 2958.02 billion yuan. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 23.98% to 72.05 billion yuan in Q2 2025, and by 20.32% to 136.67 billion yuan in H1 2025 [4][15]. - The paper industry experienced a revenue decline of 11.91%, while the home furnishing and packaging sectors achieved double-digit growth. The custom home furnishing segment faced pressure, while the soft furnishings performed relatively better [4][9][15]. Summary by Sections Overall Light Industry - The light industry sector's revenue growth is steady, but profitability is diverging across segments. The paper segment is under pressure, while home furnishing and packaging are performing well [4][15]. - The overall gross margin for the light industry decreased by 0.41 percentage points in Q2 2025 compared to the previous year, indicating profitability challenges [15][26]. Home Furnishing - The home furnishing sector's revenue grew by 10.68% year-on-year in Q2 2025, reaching 679.39 billion yuan, but net profit decreased slightly by 0.28% to 58.84 billion yuan [31]. - Custom orders are under pressure, while soft furnishings are performing better than expected. The sector is adapting to market conditions by adjusting pricing strategies [31][32]. Paper Industry - The paper segment's revenue fell by 11.91% to 425.04 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with a net profit of -7.47 billion yuan, indicating significant challenges [9][24]. - Despite the challenges, leading companies like Sun Paper are seeing a recovery in profitability, and there are expectations for price rebounds in the future [9][15]. Packaging - The packaging sector's revenue increased by 14.98% to 338.65 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with a net profit growth of 15.07% to 15.20 billion yuan, reflecting strong performance [9][33]. - The sector is benefiting from stable demand in consumer electronics and proactive overseas expansion strategies [9][15]. Entertainment Products - The entertainment products sector's revenue grew by 1.85% to 137.36 billion yuan in Q2 2025, but net profit decreased by 10.14% to 5.47 billion yuan, indicating pressure on profitability [10][42]. - The sector is seeing growth driven by new product launches and channel promotions, particularly in personal care and AI glasses [10][42]. Export Chain - The export chain's revenue increased by 5.01% to 199.59 billion yuan in Q2 2025, but net profit decreased by 3.53% to 16.86 billion yuan, highlighting mixed performance across companies [10][51]. - Tariff uncertainties are impacting orders, but companies with established overseas production capabilities are mitigating risks effectively [10][51].

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Low-level Fluctuation, Pay Attention to the Stabilization of Demand - Guoxin Futures Pulp Weekly Report" and is dated September 19, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Performance - The main contract of pulp futures, SP2511, rebounded from the bottom and then declined, maintaining a low-level fluctuation pattern [7] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis Pulp Market Price - As of September 18, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5,600 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 0.44%, with the decline narrowing by 0.04 percentage points compared to the previous period. The weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4,210 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.02%, turning from a decline to an increase [11] Cumulative Pulp Imports from January to August - In August 2025, China imported 2.653 million tons of pulp, with an import value of 1.545 billion US dollars and an average unit price of 582.36 US dollars/ton. The cumulative import volume and value from January to August increased by 5.0% and 0.3% respectively compared to the same period last year [16] Port Inventory - As of September 18, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports such as Baoding, Tianjin Port, Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, Shanghai Port, Gaolan Port, and Nansha Port was 2.0832 million tons, a 0.54% increase from the previous week, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.17 percentage points [20] European Pulp Consumption and Inventory in July - In July 2025, the total inventory in European ports decreased by 1.91% month-on-month and increased by 19.19% compared to July 2024. Only the inventory in ports of the Netherlands/Belgium/France/Switzerland increased by 1.72% month-on-month, while the inventory in ports of the UK, Germany, Italy, and Spain decreased by 26.03%, 6.96%, 1.45%, and 7.22% respectively [24] Downstream Pulp Operating Rates - Waste paper pulp consumption is the main consumption method of pulp in China, accounting for 63% of the total pulp consumption. Wood pulp consumption accounts for 31% of the total pulp consumption, and imported wood pulp consumption accounts for 21% of the total pulp consumption. Non-wood pulp consumption accounts for 6% of the total pulp consumption. As of September 18, the operating load rates of double-coated paper, offset paper, white cardboard, and tissue paper increased by 0.29, 0.66, 0.16, and 2.51 percentage points respectively week-on-week [30] Group 4: Future Outlook - As of September 18, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 2.0832 million tons, a 0.54% increase from the previous week, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.17 percentage points. The cumulative import volume and value from January to August increased by 5.0% and 0.3% respectively compared to the same period last year, with the overall import volume showing a stable performance. Arauco of Chile announced a new round of pulp export quotes for September: softwood pulp Silver Star at 700 US dollars/ton, natural pulp Venus at 590 US dollars/ton, and hardwood pulp Star up 20 US dollars/ton to 540 US dollars/ton. With the new round of export quotes rising, some industry players are reluctant to sell and hold prices. There is a tentative price increase in the spot market of imported softwood pulp, but the profit margin of downstream paper mills is under pressure and their acceptance is limited, resulting in a slight adjustment of pulp prices. During the conversion period between the traditional off-season and peak season of pulp, the downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the market expectation is weak. It is necessary to wait for the stabilization of downstream demand for a real "reversal". The operation suggestion is to wait for the end of the correction and consider a long position at low prices [35]

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Continued Weakness, Focus on Demand Stabilization - Guoxin Futures Pulp Weekly Report" and was released on September 5, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Performance - The main pulp futures contract SP2511 showed a slight rebound but remained in a weak overall trend [7] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis Pulp Market Prices - As of September 4, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5,652 yuan/ton, down 0.44% from the previous week, with the decline narrowing by 0.69 percentage points. The weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4,210 yuan/ton, up 0.48% from the previous week, turning from a decline to an increase [11] Cumulative Pulp Imports from January to July - In July 2025, China imported 2.877 million tons of pulp, with an import value of 1.7652 billion US dollars and an average unit price of 613.56 US dollars/ton. The cumulative import volume and value from January to July increased by 6.5% and 3.4% respectively compared to the same period last year [15] Port Inventory - As of September 4, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports such as Baoding, Tianjin Port, Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, Shanghai Port, Gaolan Port, and Nansha Port was 2.0574 million tons, up 0.52% from the previous week, turning from a decline to an increase [19][34] European Pulp Consumption and Inventory in July - In July 2025, the total European port inventory decreased by 1.91% month-on-month and increased by 19.19% compared to July 2024. Only the port inventories in the Netherlands/Belgium/France/Switzerland increased by 1.72% month-on-month, while the port inventories in the UK, Germany, Italy, and Spain decreased by 26.03%, 6.96%, 1.45%, and 7.22% respectively [22] Downstream Pulp Utilization Rates - Wastepaper pulp accounts for 63% of China's total pulp consumption, wood pulp accounts for 31%, and imported wood pulp accounts for 21%. Non-wood pulp accounts for 6%. As of September 4, the operating rate of double-coated paper remained flat, that of offset paper decreased by 0.47 percentage points, that of white cardboard increased by 0.19 percentage points, and that of tissue paper decreased by 0.38 percentage points [27] Group 4: Future Outlook - The pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports increased by 0.52% from the previous week, turning from a decline to an increase. Some major hardwood pulp producers have raised their prices. The recent weak rebound in the market did not prompt the pulp market to follow suit. Downstream paper mills have limited acceptance of high prices and mainly purchase at low prices. The market showed a slight rebound. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on the stabilization of demand [34]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Report's Core View - The pulp futures have stopped falling, and it is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season. It is recommended to wait and see. The pulp price is supported by the peak - season expectation and enterprises' active shutdown for price hikes, and the view of oscillation is maintained [2][4][7] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Hot - Spot Focus - The spot price of Shandong softwood pulp remained stable today, and the port inventory started to decline slightly but was still higher than the same period last year. At the beginning of September, the paper products industry saw a price - adjustment wave, with many product companies implementing a dual strategy of price hikes and shutdowns. The peak - season expectation supported the product prices [2][3] Supply and Demand Analysis - On the supply side, the supply of hardwood pulp remained loose, and Brazil's pulp exports in August increased by 35% year - on - year. On the domestic demand side, there were minor fluctuations. Among the four major paper types, the production of offset paper and household paper increased year - on - year, while that of white cardboard and coated paper decreased. The improvement of raw paper orders was limited, dragging down the pulp market [4] Technical Analysis - The pulp price in Shandong area was stable today, the market showed signs of stopping falling, but the upward drive was limited, and the trading sentiment was light. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season [7] Main Force Trends - The short - selling main force of pulp reduced positions, which was bullish [9]

Group 1: SP Main Contract Information - The closing price of the SP main contract on September 4, 2025, was 5052.00 [3] - The closing prices of the main contract from August 29 to September 4, 2025, were 5018.00, 5040.00, 5042.00, 5050.00, and 5052.00 respectively [3] - The corresponding converted US - dollar prices were 613.87, 616.59, 615.59, 616.65, and 617.47 respectively [3] - The daily price changes were 0.31987%, 0.43842%, 0.03968%, 0.15867%, and 0.03960% respectively [3] - The Shandong Yinxing basis from August 29 to September 4, 2025, was 732, 710, 708, 700, and 663 respectively [3] - The Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai Yinxing basis from August 29 to September 4, 2025, was 747, 725, 723, 715, and 683 respectively [3] Group 2: Pulp Import Information - With a 13% VAT calculation, the import profit of Canadian Golden Lion pulp was - 63.20, Canadian Lion pulp was - 509.79, and Chilean Silver Star pulp was - 164.10 [4] - The port US - dollar prices of Canadian Golden Lion, Canadian Lion, and Chilean Silver Star pulp were 780, 730, and 720 respectively, and the Shandong region RMB prices were 6300, 5450, and 5715 respectively [4] Group 3: Pulp Price and Margin Information - From August 29 to September 4, 2025, the national average prices of coniferous pulp, broad - leaf pulp, natural color pulp, and chemical mechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6073.75, 4810.75, 5415.00, and 3686.25 respectively [4] - The Shandong region average prices of coniferous pulp, broad - leaf pulp, natural color pulp, and chemical mechanical pulp also remained unchanged at 6245.00, 4775.00, 5400.00, and 3600.00 respectively [4] - From September 1 to September 4, 2025, the cultural paper (double - offset index, double - copper index), packaging paper (white card index), and living paper (living index) prices remained unchanged at 5725, 5670, 4350, and 835 respectively [4] - The margin changes of double - offset paper, double - copper paper, white card paper, and living paper from September 1 to September 4, 2025, were 0.1167, 0.1050, 0.0864, and 0.0000 respectively [4] Group 4: Pulp Price Spread Information - The price spreads between coniferous and broad - leaf pulp, coniferous and natural color pulp, coniferous and chemical mechanical pulp, and coniferous and waste paper pulp on September 4, 2025, were 1525.00, 315, 1890, and 4139 respectively [4] - The price spreads of these pulp types from August 29 to September 3, 2025, were also provided [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The pulp price is currently weak due to delivery pressure and a fundamental pattern of weak supply and demand. However, with the pulp price falling to a low level, there are rumors that some enterprises are preparing to take delivery, which may relieve the warehouse receipt pressure. As the port inventory decreases week - on - week and the seasonal peak demand season approaches, paper mills have a strong willingness to support prices, so the pulp price may rebound. The report maintains a view of range - bound trading [3]. - The pulp price in Shandong is stable today, the market shows signs of stopping the decline, but the upward driving force is limited, the trading sentiment is light, and it is expected to remain in a low - level range - bound trading before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - The short - selling main force has reduced positions, which is bullish [8]. Summary by Related Content Supply and Demand Analysis - On the supply side, the supply of hardwood pulp remains loose, but Brazil has a slight production cut and raised the quotation, basically indicating the confirmation of a phased bottom. The risk of tariffs increases the possibility of production cuts by overseas softwood pulp mills, and the pattern of tight softwood and loose hardwood continues to diverge [3]. - On the demand side, there is an expectation of a recovery, but the spot market has not shown signs of improvement. The "peak season is not prosperous", with basically small fluctuations. Among the four major paper types, the production of offset printing paper and tissue paper increased year - on - year, while the production of white cardboard and coated paper decreased year - on - year. The improvement of raw paper orders is limited, dragging down the pulp market trend [3]. Price and Market Trend - The spot price of softwood pulp in Shandong today continues to remain stable, and the port inventory starts to decline slightly, but it is still higher than the same period last year [3]. - The pulp price in Shandong is stable, the market has signs of stopping the decline, but the upward driving force is limited, and the trading sentiment is light [5]. Market Sentiment and Suggestion - The short - selling main force has reduced positions, which is bullish for the pulp market [8]. - It is expected that the pulp market will remain in a low - level range - bound trading before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, and it is recommended to wait and see [5].

Report Summary Report Information - The report is titled "Pulp Morning Report" and is dated September 3, 2025, prepared by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] SP Main Contract Information - On September 2, 2025, the closing price of the SP main contract was 5042.00. The closing prices on September 1, August 29, August 28, and August 27 were 5040.00, 5018.00, 5002.00, and 5010.00 respectively. The corresponding US dollar prices were 615.59, 616.59, 613.87, 611.42, and 610.38. The daily price changes were 0.03968%, 0.43842%, 0.31987%, -0.15968%, and -1.18343% respectively. The Shandong Yinxing basis was 708, 710, 732, 723, and 725, and the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai Yinxing basis was 723, 725, 747, 748, and 765 [3] Pulp Pricing and Profitability - With a 13% VAT calculation, the US dollar prices and RMB prices in Shandong for different pulp brands from various origins are as follows: Canadian Golden Lion (CFR) at 780 with a RMB price of 6300 and an import profit of -72.01; Canadian Lion (CFR) at 730 with a RMB price of 5450 and an import profit of -518.04; Chilean Silver Star (CFR, 90 - day letter of credit) at 720 with a RMB price of 5750 and an import profit of -137.24. The exchange rate on the previous day was 7.15 [4] Pulp Price Averages - From August 27 to September 2, 2025, the national average prices for softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6073.75, 4810.75, 5415.00, and 3686.25 respectively. The average prices in Shandong for these pulp types also remained unchanged at 6245.00, 4775.00, 5400.00, and 3600.00 respectively [4] Paper Product Indexes and Profit Margins - For paper products, from August 28 to September 2, 2025, the double - offset paper index, double - copper paper index, and white cardboard index remained at 5725, 5670, and 4350 respectively. The living paper index was 828 on August 28 and 29, 835 on September 1, and 828 on September 2. The profit margins for double - offset paper, double - copper paper, white cardboard, and living paper on August 28 were 3.6870%, 19.0975%, - 13.2222%, and 8.0818% respectively, and there were changes in the following days, but remained stable from September 1 to 2 [4] Pulp Price Spreads - From August 27 to September 2, 2025, the price spreads between softwood and hardwood pulp, softwood and natural pulp, softwood and chemimechanical pulp, and softwood and waste paper pulp showed some fluctuations. For example, the softwood - hardwood pulp spread was 1560.00 on September 2, 1560 on September 1, 1560 on August 29, 1565 on August 28, and 1560 on August 27 [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The double - offset paper market is basically stable today. The supply is expected to increase due to the resumption of some idle production lines, but the downstream demand is limited, and the consumption of base paper is slow. The industry's production may decline, the demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the cost support is limited [5][8]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Data Analysis - **Double - offset Paper Prices**: The prices of double - offset paper 70g in different regions such as Hebei, Beijing, Guangdong, Shandong, and Shanghai remain unchanged both daily and weekly. For example, the price of double - offset paper 70g: Hebei: Chenming Yunbao is 4900 yuan/ton, with a daily and weekly change of 0.00% [3]. - **Coated Paper Prices**: The prices of double - copper paper 157g in various regions show no daily change, but a weekly decline. For instance, the price of double - copper paper 157g: Beijing: Taiyang Tianyang is 5100 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of - 0.97% [3]. - **Pulp Prices**: The price of coniferous pulp: Shanghai: Yinxing is 5850 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.86% and a weekly decrease of - 0.85%. Some pulp prices remain stable, like broad - leaf pulp in some regions [3]. Second Part: Market Judgment - **Market Status**: The double - offset paper market is stable. Some idle production lines in Shandong are planned to resume production, increasing the supply expectation. However, the downstream orders are limited, and the consumption of base paper is slow. The purchase price of wood chips has little change, and the supply of wood chips is affected by weather conditions [5]. - **Logic Analysis**: The production of the double - offset paper industry may decline as some停产 enterprises have not resumed production and there may be maintenance of some production lines. The demand is mainly for rigid needs as dealers are cautious in inventory preparation and downstream printing factories have average orders. The cost support is limited as the prices of coniferous and broad - leaf pulp are stable [8]. Third Part: Relevant Attachments - There are four figures, including double - offset paper production, in - plant inventory, social inventory, and production profit, showing the data from 2021 to 2025 [10][11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The double - offset paper market remained stable overall, with limited changes in market transactions due to increased wait - and - see sentiment among industry players as the double - offset paper futures approached. Although production increased slightly, demand did not improve, and inventory rose. Paper mills had a strong willingness to maintain prices due to cost and profit considerations [5][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Double - offset paper prices**: The prices of 70g double - offset paper in various regions remained unchanged on a daily and weekly basis. For example, the price of 70g double - offset paper of Chenming Yunbao in Hebei was 4900 yuan/ton, with 0.00% daily and weekly changes [3]. - **Copperplate paper prices**: The prices of 157g double - copper paper were stable daily, but most had a week - on - week decline. For example, the price of 157g double - copper paper of Taiyang Tianyang in Beijing was 5100 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decline of 0.97% [3]. - **Pulp prices**: The prices of some types of pulp declined. The price of coniferous pulp of Yinxing in Shanghai was 5850 yuan/ton, with a daily and weekly decline of 0.85%. The price of Russian - brand coniferous pulp in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai region was 5150 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.90% and a weekly decline of 2.83% [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Market situation**: The double - offset paper market was generally stable. Dealer shipments did not improve significantly, and new orders from downstream printing factories were average. The wait - and - see sentiment increased as the futures approached [5]. - **Price in Shandong**: The mainstream negotiated price of high - whiteness double - offset paper in the Shandong market was 4850 - 4900 yuan/ton, and the price of some natural - whiteness double - offset paper was in the range of 4500 - 4700 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous day [5]. - **Wood chip market**: The purchase price of wood chips was mainly stable, with individual price increases. The purchase price of poplar chips in some northern regions was in the range of 1120 - 1400 yuan/absolute dry ton. Some pulp mills in Shandong planned to resume production, but the increase in market supply was not significant [5]. - **Inventory and production**: The inventory days of double - offset paper increased by 0.60% compared to last Thursday. The weekly operating rate was 48.52%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points. The production increased by 0.1 million tons to 20.8 million tons, a growth of 0.5%. The production enterprise inventory was 117.8 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2% [5][8]. - **Logic analysis**: Some paper machines were transferred or cross - scheduled, and there were planned maintenance on some production lines. Seasonal printing orders were coming to an end, and social orders were not boosted. Paper mills had a strong willingness to maintain prices to ensure profits. Pulp prices remained low, with high port inventories and sufficient supply [8]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides four figures, including double - offset paper production, in - factory inventory, social inventory, and production profit, with data from 2021 - 2025 [11][14].