Core Viewpoint - The double copper paper market is expected to stabilize and see a slight rebound in prices in November due to improved demand and reduced supply pressures, despite ongoing cost challenges [1][8]. Supply and Demand - November is anticipated to see a decrease in double copper paper production, with a projected decline of 1.07% month-on-month due to maintenance shutdowns and fewer working days [4][8]. - Demand is showing signs of recovery, driven by new publishing tenders and increased commercial activities towards the end of the year, with a projected consumption increase of 6.72% in November [4][8]. - The issuance of price increase notices by paper mills at the end of October has boosted market confidence, leading to a stabilization of prices [2][4]. Pricing Trends - As of November 7, the market price for 157g double copper paper was reported at 4770 yuan/ton, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 1.24%, although the rate of decline has narrowed compared to the previous month [2]. - Overall, the average price for November is expected to be around 4800 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 0.20% month-on-month [8]. Cost Factors - The cost of key raw materials for double copper paper production has decreased by 0.24% as of the end of October, while paper prices have dropped by 1.24%, leading to a theoretical gross margin of over -4.00% [6]. - Recent increases in the prices of wood pulp, with needle and broadleaf pulp rising by 0.64% and 0.54% respectively, indicate a potential upward pressure on production costs moving forward [6][8]. - The sentiment in the wood pulp market is improving, suggesting that prices may be more likely to rise than fall, which could further pressure the profitability of paper mills [6][8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The coniferous pulp futures have stabilized, boosting the market and leading to a slight improvement in spot transactions. The foreign market price of broadleaf pulp has been continuously increasing, providing cost support for the firmness of the spot price. However, the pattern of high inventory and weak demand remains unchanged, and the market lacks directional guidance. It is expected that the upward space for pulp is limited, and the market will maintain a volatile trend [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Demand - During the week, the production of household paper, coated paper, and white cardboard decreased, while the production of offset paper increased [6]. Supply - The sample production of Chinese broadleaf pulp was 250,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons compared to last week. The sample broadleaf pulp market remained stable this period, and the production enterprises' equipment returned to normal production. It is expected that the sample production will maintain a stable trend in the short term [7]. Inventory - As of November 6, 2025, the sample inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.008 million tons, a decrease of 53,000 tons compared to the previous period, with a month - on - month decline of 2.6%. The inventory showed a narrow - range destocking trend this period [7]. - The inventory changes of different ports: Qingdao Port decreased by 3.9% (from 1.41 million tons to 1.355 million tons), Changshu Port increased by 0.6% (from 503,000 tons to 506,000 tons), Gaolan Port increased by 64.7% (from 34,000 tons to 56,000 tons), Tianjin Port decreased by 29.2% (from 72,000 tons to 51,000 tons), and Rizhao Port decreased by 4.8% (from 42,000 tons to 40,000 tons) [9]. Profit - The price of domestic waste paper continued to rise, and due to strong cost pressure, the gross profit of corrugated paper, boxboard paper, and white board paper shrank. The demand for bobbin paper was good, and the increase in the price of base paper exceeded the cost, resulting in a 11.00% month - on - month increase in gross profit. Due to more positive news on the demand side of social white cardboard, the increase in base paper price was greater than that of pulp price, and the gross profit increased by 78.18% month - on - month. The price of cultural printing paper base paper remained flat, while the price of domestic chemimechanical pulp increased month - on - month, so the gross profit of double - copper paper decreased by 4.37% month - on - month [7]. - Specific profit data: The gross profit of boxboard paper decreased by 3.24% (from 683 yuan/ton to 661 yuan/ton), corrugated paper decreased by 7.79% (from 408 yuan/ton to 376 yuan/ton), bobbin paper increased by 11.00% (from 100 yuan/ton to 111 yuan/ton), white board paper decreased by 9.73% (from 339 yuan/ton to 306 yuan/ton), social white cardboard increased by 78.18% (from 110 yuan/ton to 196 yuan/ton), offset paper decreased by 2.37% (from - 253 yuan/ton to - 259 yuan/ton), double - copper paper decreased by 4.37% (from 183 yuan/ton to 175 yuan/ton), and household paper remained unchanged at 149 yuan/ton [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints No information provided 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog - SP主力合约收盘价2025年11月4日为5288.00 较上一日跌0.33924% 折美元价650.56 山东银星基差212 江浙沪银星基差227 [3] - 以13%增值税计算 加拿大金狮CFR港口美元价780 山东地区人民币价6200 进口利润-145.57 雄狮CFR港口美元价730 山东地区人民币价5400 进口利润-543.29 智利银星CFR信用证90天港口美元价680 山东地区人民币价5500 进口利润-41.01 [4] - 2025年10月29日至11月4日 全国及山东地区针叶浆 阔叶浆 本色浆 化机浆均价无变化 文化用纸 包装纸 生活用纸价格指数无变化 但双胶 双铜 白卡利润率有变化 生活利润率无变化 [4] - 2025年11月4日针叶阔叶价差1250.00 针叶本色价差100 针叶化机价差1700 针叶废纸价差3924 [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4]. Core Views - The company's Q3 earnings were under short-term pressure, confirming the profit bottom for the year. However, with new production capacity coming online in Q4, there is potential for profit growth [1][4]. - The prices of cultural paper and dissolving pulp have been under pressure, while the boxboard prices have seen increases due to cost pass-through [2][3]. - The company is entering a new phase of concentrated capacity release, which is expected to enhance earnings flexibility over the next two years [4][6]. Summary by Sections Q3 Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 28.94 billion yuan, down 6.6%, and a net profit of 2.50 billion yuan, up 1.7%. In Q3 alone, revenue was 9.82 billion yuan, down 6.0%, with a net profit of 720 million yuan, up 2.7% [1]. Price Trends - Cultural paper prices fell significantly in Q3, with prices for double glue paper and double copper paper dropping by 250 yuan/ton and 450 yuan/ton, respectively. The dissolving pulp market also saw a decline of 400 yuan/ton [2]. - In October, cultural paper prices showed signs of stabilization, with slight decreases, while boxboard prices increased due to seasonal demand and tightening upstream supply [3]. Capacity Expansion - The company has several new production lines coming online, including a 1 million ton high-end packaging paper line in Guangxi, which is expected to release profit increments in Q4 [4]. - Future projects include a 140,000 ton specialty paper project in Shandong, expected to begin trial production in Q1 2026 [4]. Financial Forecasts - The profit forecasts have been adjusted downward due to weak pulp and paper prices, with expected net profits of 3.37 billion yuan, 3.88 billion yuan, and 4.35 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][26] Core Views - The company's Q3 earnings were under short-term pressure, confirming the profit bottom for the year, with expectations for profit growth in Q4 due to new capacity coming online [1][4] - Cultural paper and dissolving pulp prices have been under pressure, while boxboard prices have seen increases due to cost pass-through [2][3] - The company is entering a new phase of concentrated capacity release, which is expected to enhance earnings flexibility over the next two years [4][6] Summary by Sections Q3 Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 28.94 billion yuan, down 6.6%, and a net profit of 2.50 billion yuan, up 1.7% [1] - In Q3 alone, revenue was 9.82 billion yuan, down 6.0%, with a net profit of 720 million yuan, up 2.7% [1] Price Trends - Cultural paper prices fell significantly in Q3, with prices for double glue paper and double copper paper dropping by 250 yuan/ton and 450 yuan/ton respectively [2] - Conversely, boxboard prices in South China increased by 150 yuan/ton for boxboard and 410 yuan/ton for high-strength corrugated paper [2] Q4 Expectations - Cultural paper prices are expected to stabilize and potentially increase, as they are currently below the industry average cost line [3] - The fourth quarter is anticipated to be a traditional sales peak for boxboard due to holiday demand, with expectations for slight price increases [3] Capacity Expansion - The company has significant new capacity coming online in Q4, including various production lines in Guangxi and Shandong, which are expected to contribute to profit growth [4] - The Guangxi base has already started production on several lines, with more expected to come online in the coming months [4] Financial Forecasts - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted, with expected net profits of 3.37 billion yuan, 3.88 billion yuan, and 4.35 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 8.7%, 15.2%, and 12.0% [4][5] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 11.8, 10.2, and 9.1 times for the respective years [4][5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The pulp futures market has been in an adjustment trend since February this year, with the current low - level increasing positions and rising. Attention should be paid to the stabilization of the futures market. It is recommended to consider lightly testing long positions at low prices [3][29]. - In October, the demand side of the pulp market shows a slight recovery, but the high - price transactions are difficult to increase due to the general purchasing enthusiasm of downstream paper mills and sufficient domestic pulp supply. The supply and demand are in continuous game [2][3][29]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In October, pulp futures hit the bottom and rebounded. The main contract completed the shift of positions, and the position gradually moved to the SP2601 contract. After hitting a low of 5042 yuan/ton on October 13, it rebounded. The profit improvement of downstream paper enterprises was poor, and the purchasing enthusiasm was insufficient, which dragged down the pulp futures market. With the arrival of the traditional peak season in October, the new production capacity of tissue paper enterprises will continue to be released, and the demand side has a slight recovery [8]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Import Volume in September**: In September 2025, China imported 2.952 million tons of pulp. From January to September, the cumulative import volume and amount increased by 5.6% and - 0.7% respectively compared with the same period last year. The import volume of coniferous pulp in September was 690,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.52% and a year - on - year increase of 11.32%. The import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 1.3559 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.81% and a year - on - year increase of 9.40%. Affected by geopolitics, the import volume from North America decreased, but the import volume from Brazil, Chile, Finland and Uruguay increased. The total import volume of pulp in China is at a relatively high level in history [1][12][28]. - **October Foreign Market Quotations**: Chile's Arauco Company's new round of October wood pulp foreign market quotations showed that the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 680 US dollars/ton, 20 US dollars/ton lower than that in September; the price of natural pulp Venus was 590 US dollars/ton, the same as that in September; the price of broad - leaf pulp Star was 540 US dollars/ton, the same as that in September. The general purchasing enthusiasm of downstream paper mills and sufficient domestic pulp supply dragged down the actual transaction price of broad - leaf pulp. The price of imported broad - leaf pulp remained high, and traders had a certain price - holding sentiment. The estimated gross profit margin of Silver Star spot was - 5.20%, up 0.16 percentage points from the previous week before the festival, and down 5.75 percentage points from the same period last year [16]. - **Profit of Downstream Paper Enterprises**: As of October 16, the weekly operating load rate of double - copper paper was 63.90%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.80 percentage points; that of double - offset paper was 48.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.84 percentage points; that of white cardboard increased by 0.05 percentage points, and the output increased by 0.09%; that of tissue paper increased by 1.15 percentage points, and the output increased by 1.65%. The operating load rate of downstream paper enterprises showed a differentiated trend. The overall operating level of double - copper paper and double - offset paper was low, while that of tissue paper and white cardboard increased. The demand side showed a slight recovery in October, but the pulp market continued the dynamic game [21][22][29]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of October 16, 2025, the total weekly inventory of pulp in Baoding, Tianjin Port, Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, Shanghai Port, Gaolan Port and Nansha Port was 1.9342 million tons, a 0.91% increase from the previous week, turning from a decline to an increase. In August 2025, the total inventory of European ports increased by 7.61% month - on - month and 9.76% year - on - year, and the inventory of most European countries' ports increased month - on - month [2][22][29]. 3.3 Outlook for the Future - The supply side shows that China's total pulp import volume is at a relatively high level in history. The demand side has a slight recovery in October, but the high - price transactions are difficult to increase. The price of imported broad - leaf pulp remains high, and the supply and demand are in continuous game. The pulp futures market is currently increasing positions and rising at a low level, and attention should be paid to the stabilization of the market. It is recommended to consider lightly testing long positions at low prices [28][29].

Group 1 - The closing price of the SP main contract on October 23, 2025, was 5250.00 [3] - The closing prices of the main contract from October 17 - 23, 2025, were 5122.00, 5156.00, 5170.00, 5220.00, and 5250.00 respectively [3] - The corresponding converted US - dollar prices were 627.35, 631.87, 634.15, 639.70, and 639.70 respectively [3] - The daily price changes were 5.47776%, 0.66380%, 0.27153%, 0.96712%, and 0.57471% respectively [3] - The Shandong Yinxing basis from October 17 - 23, 2025, was 478, 444, 430, 380, and 350 respectively [3] - The Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai Yinxing basis from October 17 - 23, 2025, was 438, 404, 390, 340, and 310 respectively [3] Group 2 - With a 13% VAT calculation, the import profits for Canadian Golden Lion, Canadian Lion, and Chilean Yinxing were - 145.57, - 593.29, and - 101.92 respectively [4] - The port US - dollar prices for Canadian Golden Lion, Canadian Lion, and Chilean Yinxing were 780, 730, and 700 respectively [4] - The Shandong region RMB prices for Canadian Golden Lion, Canadian Lion, and Chilean Yinxing were 6200, 5350, and 5600 respectively [4] Group 3 - From October 17 - 23, 2025, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6073.75, 4810.75, 5415.00, and 3686.25 respectively [4] - The Shandong region average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6245.00, 4775.00, 5400.00, and 3600.00 respectively [4] Group 4 - From October 20 - 23, 2025, the cultural paper (double - offset index, double - copper index), packaging paper (white - card index), and the price of household paper (household index) remained unchanged at 5725, 5670, 4350, and 839 respectively [4] - The profit margins of double - offset paper, double - copper paper, white - card paper, and household paper on October 20, 2025, were - 0.0774%, 12.9677%, - 10.3133%, and 7.1077% respectively [4] - The profit margins of double - offset paper, double - copper paper, white - card paper, and household paper on October 21, 2025, were - 0.0774%, 12.9677%, - 10.3133%, and 7.0696% respectively [4] - The profit margins of double - offset paper, double - copper paper, white - card paper, and household paper on October 22, 2025, were - 0.0774%, 12.9677%, - 10.3133%, and 6.9741% respectively [4] - The profit margins of double - offset paper, double - copper paper, white - card paper, and household paper on October 23, 2025, were - 0.0774%, 12.9677%, - 10.3133%, and 7.1077% respectively [4] - The change in the household paper profit margin from October 20 - 23, 2025, was 0.1336, while the others remained unchanged [4] Group 5 - From October 17 - 23, 2025, the price differences between softwood and hardwood pulp, softwood and natural pulp, softwood and chemimechanical pulp, and softwood pulp and waste paper remained unchanged at 1360.00, 200, 1800, and 4024 respectively [4]

Report Information - Report Title: Pulp Monthly Report [1] - Date: October 10, 2025 [2] - Core View: In October, supported by seasonality and cost, pulp prices may have a phased rebound. However, without significant improvement in industry profits, it is difficult to have a trend change, and the pulp market will mainly fluctuate at a low level [7] - Strategy: Range operation, short near-term contracts and long far-term contracts [7] - Important Variables: Macroeconomic policies, supply disruptions, and demand performance [7] Group 1: Market Review - In September, pulp prices fluctuated at a low level with a monthly decline of 2.8%. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points on September 17, and the Sino-US leaders' call promoted trade negotiations. In the domestic market, the CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, industrial added value increased by 5.2% year-on-year with a slight month-on-month decline, and the year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods continued to slow down to 3.4%. The pulp peak season in September fell short of expectations, and the fundamentals remained weak [9] - The FOB prices of imported wood pulp showed a mixed trend, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuated within a narrow range. The cost support for imported softwood pulp was relatively weak. In the European market, the consumption of chemical pulp in August increased by 2.4% year-on-year, and the inventory of chemical pulp increased by 11.3% year-on-year. In August, the chemical pulp shipments of the world's top 20 pulp-producing countries increased by 10.3% year-on-year, with softwood pulp up 5% and hardwood pulp up 14.7%. It is expected that the subsequent imports will remain at a relatively high level compared to the same period [9] - As of late September, the inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 2.8% month-on-month. Although September entered the traditional consumption peak season, downstream paper mills lacked confidence, processing profits were difficult to improve, and the enthusiasm for raw material procurement was poor. The average monthly price of imported softwood pulp in September decreased by 2.23% compared to the previous month, while that of imported hardwood pulp increased by 1.08% [9] - Arauco's September wood pulp FOB prices were as follows: softwood pulp Silver Star at $700/ton, natural pulp Venus at $590/ton, and hardwood pulp Star at $540/ton [9] Group 2: Global Commodity Pulp Shipments Increase Year-on-Year - Global commodity pulp shipments increased year-on-year. According to PPPC, in July, the softwood pulp shipments of the world's top 20 pulp-producing countries were 1.77 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.22% and a year-on-year increase of 4.11%; the hardwood pulp shipments were 2.65 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 12.69% and a year-on-year increase of 11.08% [17] - In July, the ratio of global commodity chemical pulp shipments to production capacity decreased seasonally but remained at a relatively high level compared to the same period. It decreased by 9.49% compared to the previous month and increased by 7.29% compared to the same period last year. In July, the inventory days of softwood pulp for global producers were 50 days, basically the same as the previous month and 7 days more than the same period last year; for hardwood pulp, it was 45 days, 1 day more than the previous month and 2 days less than the same period last year [17] - China's pulp imports decreased both month-on-month and year-on-year in August. In August, China imported 2.65 million tons of pulp, a month-on-month decrease of 8.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%. From January to August, the cumulative pulp imports were 24.11 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%. By variety, in August, the imports of softwood pulp were 610,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.1%; the imports of hardwood pulp were 1.26 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4% [17] - The inventory in major ports continued to decline in September. As of late September, the inventory in major domestic ports and regions was approximately 1.99 million tons, a decrease of 2.8% compared to the previous month. Among them, the inventory in Qingdao Port increased by 0.8% compared to the previous month, while that in Changshu Port decreased by 11.8% [17] Group 3: No Obvious Improvement in Downstream Market Demand - The year-on-year growth rate of China's cumulative output of machine-made paper slowed down. In August 2025, the output of machine-made paper and paperboard was 13.919 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%. From January to August, the cumulative output was 106.659 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.7% [38] - The finished product inventory of China's papermaking and paper products industry decreased. In August, the inventory of the papermaking and paper products industry was flat year-on-year and decreased by 0.4% month-on-month. The finished product inventory decreased by 1.1% year-on-year and 2.4% month-on-month [38] - In September, the prices of downstream base paper showed a mixed trend, and the demand growth was relatively limited. As of September 28, the monthly average price of the white cardboard market was 3,960 yuan/ton, a 0.35% increase compared to the previous month. In September, the cost pressure in the market remained high, and paper mills raised prices by 100 yuan/ton. The new production capacity in Central China was postponed, and terminal inventories were low, with mainly rigid demand replenishment [38] - As of September 28, the monthly average price of the tissue paper market was 5,647 yuan/ton, a 1.06% increase compared to the previous month. In September, several paper enterprises in Southwest China shut down or reduced production, the market supply tightened, and paper enterprises raised prices to sell. The prices in Guangxi also showed an upward trend driven by the price of bagasse pulp [38] - As of September 28, the monthly average price of the offset printing paper market was 4,807 yuan/ton, a 2.77% decrease compared to the previous month. In early September, the idle production lines in Shandong resumed production, increasing the market supply pressure. Downstream printing factories received average orders. Some factories in South China shut down briefly due to weather, and the consumption of base paper was slow. Coupled with the delay of publishing tenders, the overall market sales were slow [39] - As of September 28, the monthly average price of the coated paper market was 4,968 yuan/ton, a 4.13% decrease compared to the previous month. In September, some large-scale idle production lines resumed production, increasing the industry supply. Distributors actively reduced inventories to avoid price decline risks. Downstream printing and packaging orders were average, and the consumption speed of base paper was slow [39] Group 4: Differentiated Trends in Gross Profit Margins of Wood Pulp Paper Products - The overall gross profit margins of wood pulp paper products showed a differentiated trend. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to August 2025, the cumulative year-on-year decline in operating income of the papermaking and paper products industry was 1.9%, and the cumulative year-on-year decline in total profit was 18.8%, with the overall decline slightly narrowing [50] - In September, the monthly average of major raw material costs fluctuated weakly compared to the previous month, and the prices of terminal paper products showed a mixed trend. The overall gross profit margins showed a differentiated trend. By variety, in September, the gross profit margin of white cardboard increased by 2.03 percentage points compared to the previous month; the gross profit margin of tissue paper slightly increased by 0.04 percentage points; the gross profit margin of offset printing paper decreased by 1.77 percentage points; and the gross profit margin of coated paper decreased by 3.06 percentage points [50]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the light industry sector [7][11]. Core Insights - The light industry sector's revenue increased by 3.59% year-on-year in Q2 2025, reaching 1580.45 billion yuan, while H1 2025 saw a 2.34% increase to 2958.02 billion yuan. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 23.98% to 72.05 billion yuan in Q2 2025, and by 20.32% to 136.67 billion yuan in H1 2025 [4][15]. - The paper industry experienced a revenue decline of 11.91%, while the home furnishing and packaging sectors achieved double-digit growth. The custom home furnishing segment faced pressure, while the soft furnishings performed relatively better [4][9][15]. Summary by Sections Overall Light Industry - The light industry sector's revenue growth is steady, but profitability is diverging across segments. The paper segment is under pressure, while home furnishing and packaging are performing well [4][15]. - The overall gross margin for the light industry decreased by 0.41 percentage points in Q2 2025 compared to the previous year, indicating profitability challenges [15][26]. Home Furnishing - The home furnishing sector's revenue grew by 10.68% year-on-year in Q2 2025, reaching 679.39 billion yuan, but net profit decreased slightly by 0.28% to 58.84 billion yuan [31]. - Custom orders are under pressure, while soft furnishings are performing better than expected. The sector is adapting to market conditions by adjusting pricing strategies [31][32]. Paper Industry - The paper segment's revenue fell by 11.91% to 425.04 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with a net profit of -7.47 billion yuan, indicating significant challenges [9][24]. - Despite the challenges, leading companies like Sun Paper are seeing a recovery in profitability, and there are expectations for price rebounds in the future [9][15]. Packaging - The packaging sector's revenue increased by 14.98% to 338.65 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with a net profit growth of 15.07% to 15.20 billion yuan, reflecting strong performance [9][33]. - The sector is benefiting from stable demand in consumer electronics and proactive overseas expansion strategies [9][15]. Entertainment Products - The entertainment products sector's revenue grew by 1.85% to 137.36 billion yuan in Q2 2025, but net profit decreased by 10.14% to 5.47 billion yuan, indicating pressure on profitability [10][42]. - The sector is seeing growth driven by new product launches and channel promotions, particularly in personal care and AI glasses [10][42]. Export Chain - The export chain's revenue increased by 5.01% to 199.59 billion yuan in Q2 2025, but net profit decreased by 3.53% to 16.86 billion yuan, highlighting mixed performance across companies [10][51]. - Tariff uncertainties are impacting orders, but companies with established overseas production capabilities are mitigating risks effectively [10][51].

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Low-level Fluctuation, Pay Attention to the Stabilization of Demand - Guoxin Futures Pulp Weekly Report" and is dated September 19, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Performance - The main contract of pulp futures, SP2511, rebounded from the bottom and then declined, maintaining a low-level fluctuation pattern [7] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis Pulp Market Price - As of September 18, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5,600 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 0.44%, with the decline narrowing by 0.04 percentage points compared to the previous period. The weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4,210 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.02%, turning from a decline to an increase [11] Cumulative Pulp Imports from January to August - In August 2025, China imported 2.653 million tons of pulp, with an import value of 1.545 billion US dollars and an average unit price of 582.36 US dollars/ton. The cumulative import volume and value from January to August increased by 5.0% and 0.3% respectively compared to the same period last year [16] Port Inventory - As of September 18, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports such as Baoding, Tianjin Port, Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, Shanghai Port, Gaolan Port, and Nansha Port was 2.0832 million tons, a 0.54% increase from the previous week, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.17 percentage points [20] European Pulp Consumption and Inventory in July - In July 2025, the total inventory in European ports decreased by 1.91% month-on-month and increased by 19.19% compared to July 2024. Only the inventory in ports of the Netherlands/Belgium/France/Switzerland increased by 1.72% month-on-month, while the inventory in ports of the UK, Germany, Italy, and Spain decreased by 26.03%, 6.96%, 1.45%, and 7.22% respectively [24] Downstream Pulp Operating Rates - Waste paper pulp consumption is the main consumption method of pulp in China, accounting for 63% of the total pulp consumption. Wood pulp consumption accounts for 31% of the total pulp consumption, and imported wood pulp consumption accounts for 21% of the total pulp consumption. Non-wood pulp consumption accounts for 6% of the total pulp consumption. As of September 18, the operating load rates of double-coated paper, offset paper, white cardboard, and tissue paper increased by 0.29, 0.66, 0.16, and 2.51 percentage points respectively week-on-week [30] Group 4: Future Outlook - As of September 18, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 2.0832 million tons, a 0.54% increase from the previous week, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.17 percentage points. The cumulative import volume and value from January to August increased by 5.0% and 0.3% respectively compared to the same period last year, with the overall import volume showing a stable performance. Arauco of Chile announced a new round of pulp export quotes for September: softwood pulp Silver Star at 700 US dollars/ton, natural pulp Venus at 590 US dollars/ton, and hardwood pulp Star up 20 US dollars/ton to 540 US dollars/ton. With the new round of export quotes rising, some industry players are reluctant to sell and hold prices. There is a tentative price increase in the spot market of imported softwood pulp, but the profit margin of downstream paper mills is under pressure and their acceptance is limited, resulting in a slight adjustment of pulp prices. During the conversion period between the traditional off-season and peak season of pulp, the downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the market expectation is weak. It is necessary to wait for the stabilization of downstream demand for a real "reversal". The operation suggestion is to wait for the end of the correction and consider a long position at low prices [35]