Economic Growth Overview - In November 2025, China's industrial added value grew by 4.8% year-on-year, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[3] - The service production index increased by 4.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points compared to October[3] - Retail sales of consumer goods rose by 1.3% year-on-year, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous month[3] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing added value increased by 8.4%, accelerating by 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, outpacing the overall industrial growth rate by 3.6 percentage points[3] - The export delivery value showed a marginal recovery, with a year-on-year decline of 0.1%, improving by 2.0 percentage points from October[3] - The service retail sales grew by 5.4% year-on-year from January to November, with a 0.1 percentage point increase compared to the previous month[3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6% from January to November, a drop of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Infrastructure and manufacturing investments maintained expansion, with cumulative year-on-year growth rates of 0.1% and 1.9%, respectively[3] - Equipment purchase investment rose by 12.2% year-on-year, contributing 1.8 percentage points to overall investment growth[3] Risks and Outlook - Risks include potential underperformance of growth stabilization policies, unexpected severity of overseas economic downturns, and escalation of geopolitical conflicts[3]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Views - The report highlights a recovery in domestic demand driven by policy support, particularly in the real estate sector, which is expected to stabilize [2][3] - The consumer goods sector, particularly home furnishings and cosmetics, is anticipated to benefit from increased consumption policies and a recovering real estate market [3][4] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Data - In November 2025, the total retail sales growth was +1.3%, lower than the expected +2.9%. Cumulatively, from January to November 2025, retail sales increased by +4.0% year-on-year [1][13] - Specific categories showed varied performance: furniture sales decreased by -3.8%, while cultural office supplies and cosmetics grew by +11.7% and +6.1%, respectively [1][11] Real Estate Sector - The real estate market continues to face challenges, with new housing starts, completions, and sales all showing significant year-on-year declines in November 2025, at -26.8%, -28.0%, and -19.1%, respectively [2][32] - However, there are signs of improvement in the month-on-month data, indicating potential stabilization in the market [2] Home Furnishings - The home furnishings sector is expected to gain momentum due to ongoing policy support and a recovering real estate market, which will stimulate demand for home upgrades [3][9] Cosmetics - The cosmetics sector is experiencing a recovery, with retail sales for January to November 2025 reaching 428.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +4.8%. November sales alone were 46.8 billion yuan, up +6.1% year-on-year [4][24] Gold and Jewelry - The gold and jewelry sector saw retail sales of 341.4 billion yuan from January to November 2025, reflecting a +13.5% year-on-year increase. November sales were 29.2 billion yuan, up +8.5% year-on-year, driven by rising gold prices [8][28] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies in the home furnishings sector include Oppein Home, Kuka Home, and others, which are expected to outperform due to their strong brand and market position [9] - In the cosmetics sector, domestic brands like Runben and others are highlighted for their growth potential through diversified product strategies [9]

Economic Overview - November economic data shows a consistent trend with previous periods, indicating weakness in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing investments, while consumer confidence remains low[7] - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year decreased from -1.7% to -2.6%, reflecting a significant fluctuation and pointing towards a need for improved supply-demand structure[7] - Retail sales growth in November dropped to 1.3%, influenced by previous high base effects and a decline in consumer confidence post "Double Eleven" promotions[7] Policy and Investment Insights - The introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools has been fully deployed, but the impact on investment growth may take time to materialize[7] - The focus on effective industrial investment is emphasized, with policies aiming for high-quality and sustainable growth rather than mere quantitative expansion[7] - Recent policies aimed at enhancing consumer goods supply-demand compatibility and promoting consumption are expected to gradually improve consumer sentiment[7] Production and Trade Dynamics - Industrial value-added output slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points, but high-tech industries showed a robust growth of 8.4%, indicating technology's crucial role in overall economic growth[7] - Export delivery value improved slightly from -2.1% to -0.1%, suggesting a narrowing of production fluctuations due to external trade conditions[7] Future Outlook - The market anticipates weaker growth in Q4 compared to Q3, with the expectation that the effects of new policies will take time to manifest, leading to continued economic challenges until year-end[7] - Despite current weaknesses, China's economic momentum remains strong, supported by counter-cyclical policies and a focus on domestic demand, particularly consumption[7]

期货研究院 格林大华期货研究院专题报告 宏观经济 2025年12月15日 宏观国债研究员：刘洋 从业资格证号： F3063825 交易咨询证号： Z0016580 联系方式： liuyang18036@greend h.com 格林大华期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1288号 成文时间：2025年12月15日星期一 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 11月消费投资低于预期 摘要 11月固定资产投资增速和社零增长均低于市场预期。11出口增速 超市场预期。11月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长低于市场预期， 11月服务业生产指数同比增速较10月回落0.4个百分点。11月国内房 地产销量同比和房价继续下行，12月上旬的数据也表现如此。截至今 年10月底，5000亿元新型政策性金融工具已全部完成投放，11月的 投资数据未表现出明显改观。中美在10月末元首会晤之后，不断拉长 合作清单、压缩问题清单，相对稳定的国际环境有利于中国出口。出 口信心稳定则有利民间投资增长。 1-11月份，全国固定资产投资同比下降2.6%，市场预期下降2.2 %，1-10月份为同比下降1.7%。分类来看，1-11月份广义基建投 ...

Economic Overview - In November, the national economy continued to show a stable and progressive development trend, with a focus on implementing proactive macro policies and promoting high-quality development [2][6] - The total grain production for the year is expected to exceed 1.4 trillion jin, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2% [2] Industrial Production - The industrial added value above designated size increased by 4.8% year-on-year in November, with a month-on-month increase of 0.44% [3] - The equipment manufacturing industry and high-tech manufacturing industry saw significant growth, with increases of 7.7% and 8.4% respectively [3] - The production of 3D printing equipment, industrial robots, and new energy vehicles grew by 100.5%, 20.6%, and 17.0% year-on-year respectively [3] Retail Sales - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 43,898 billion yuan in November, a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [4] - Online retail sales amounted to 144,582 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.1%, and physical goods online retail sales accounted for 25.9% of total retail sales [4] - Service retail sales grew by 5.4% year-on-year, with significant growth in cultural, sports, and travel services [4] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year-on-year from January to November, while manufacturing investment increased by 1.9% [5] - Infrastructure investment fell by 1.1%, and real estate development investment dropped by 15.9% [5] - Investment in high-tech industries, such as information services and aerospace manufacturing, saw significant increases of 29.6% and 19.7% respectively [5] Policy Impact - A series of proactive macro policies have effectively supported stable economic operations, leading to expanded consumer demand and increased key investments [7][8] - The implementation of consumption upgrade policies has resulted in significant sales growth in home appliances and communication equipment [8] - The industrial production growth was supported by policies promoting market demand and industrial upgrades [8] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year in November, marking a continuous recovery trend [9] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, indicating a narrowing decline trend since August [10][11] Long-term Economic Outlook - The resilience of the economy remains strong, with macro policies providing robust support and new growth drivers emerging [12][13] - The expansion of market demand and the continuous growth of new economic drivers are expected to positively impact economic development [12][14] - The upcoming economic policies aim to enhance domestic demand and optimize supply, ensuring a solid foundation for future growth [14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the positive impact of consumer policies in Jinan, leading to a stable retail market and increased consumer demand in 2023 [1][2] - From January to October, the retail sales of consumer goods in Jinan reached 166.7 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.5% [1] - Online consumption has seen significant growth, with retail sales through public networks amounting to 44.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.8%, which is 19.3 percentage points higher than the overall retail sales growth [1] Group 2 - The sales of communication equipment and cultural office supplies have experienced substantial growth, with increases of 38.3% and 30.3% respectively, contributing 2.0 and 0.5 percentage points to the overall retail sales growth [1] - The retail sales of basic living goods, including grain, oil, food, beverages, and tobacco, grew by 8.3%, surpassing the overall retail sales growth by 6.8 percentage points, contributing 1.1 percentage points to the total [2] - Daily necessities also showed a positive trend, with retail sales increasing by 11.4%, contributing an additional 0.2 percentage points to the overall growth [2]

Core Insights - The consumer market in China maintained a steady growth trend in October, with continuous release of consumption potential [1] Group 1: Goods Consumption - In October, retail sales of goods increased by 2.8%, with significant growth in sales of trade-in related products [1] - Retail sales of communication equipment, cultural and office supplies, and furniture for enterprises above designated size grew by 23.2%, 13.5%, and 9.6% respectively [1] - Demand for upgraded consumer goods remained strong, with retail sales of gold, silver, and jewelry, sports and entertainment products, and cosmetics increasing by 37.6%, 10.1%, and 9.6% respectively [1] Group 2: Service Consumption - From January to October, retail sales of services grew by 5.3%, driven by holiday travel demand [1] - Retail sales in tourism consulting and leasing services, transportation services, and cultural and recreational services all maintained a growth rate of over 10% [1] - In October, restaurant income increased by 3.8% [1] Group 3: New Consumption Trends - In October, sales of smart health devices increased by over 20%, while sales of smart wearable devices grew by approximately 4% [1] - Sales of certain first-level energy-efficient home appliances increased by over 10% [1] - E-commerce played a positive role in boosting consumption, with online service consumption growing by 21% [1]

Core Insights - China's consumption market showed steady growth in October, with continuous release of consumption potential [1] Group 1: Goods Consumption - In October, retail sales of goods increased by 2.8%, with significant growth in sales of products related to trade-in programs [6] - Retail sales of communication equipment, cultural office supplies, and furniture grew by 23.2%, 13.5%, and 9.6% respectively [6] - Demand for upgraded consumer goods remained strong, with retail sales of gold and silver jewelry, sports and entertainment products, and cosmetics increasing by 37.6%, 10.1%, and 9.6% respectively [6] Group 2: Service Consumption - Service consumption showed good momentum, driven by holiday travel demand, with retail sales in tourism consulting, transportation services, and cultural and recreational services all maintaining over 10% growth [9] - Restaurant revenue grew by 3.8%, accelerating by 2.9 percentage points compared to September [9] - The inbound tourism sector remained robust, with 751,000 foreign visitors during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, marking a 19.8% increase [9] Group 3: Rural and New Consumption - Rural consumption outpaced urban areas, with county-level consumption continuing to expand and lower-tier markets showing strong vitality [14] - New types of consumption grew rapidly, with sales of smart health devices increasing by over 20%, smart wearable devices by approximately 4%, and some first-level energy-efficient appliances by over 10% [14] - Sales of organic food also saw significant growth, exceeding 8% [14]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic consumption market in China has shown steady growth in October, driven by the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with continuous release of consumption potential [1] Summary by Categories Overall Consumption Performance - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4.63 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.9% [1] - From January to October, the total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 41.2 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.3%, which is 0.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1] Retail Sales Breakdown - In October, the retail sales of goods increased by 2.8%, with significant growth in sales of products related to trade-in programs [1] - Retail sales for communication equipment, cultural and office supplies, and furniture increased by 23.2%, 13.5%, and 9.6% respectively [1] Basic and Upgraded Goods Consumption - Basic living goods saw rapid growth, with retail sales of grain and oil foods increasing by 9.1% and clothing and footwear by 6.3% [1] - Demand for upgraded goods remained strong, with retail sales of gold and silver jewelry, sports and entertainment products, and cosmetics increasing by 37.6%, 10.1%, and 9.6% respectively [1]

Core Insights - The consumption market in China is showing steady growth, driven by the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with significant potential being released in October [1] Group 1: Product Consumption - In October, retail sales of goods increased by 2.8%, with notable growth in trade-in related products [1] - Retail sales of communication equipment, cultural and office supplies, and furniture grew by 23.2%, 13.5%, and 9.6% respectively [1] Group 2: Service Consumption - From January to October, service retail sales increased by 5.3%, accelerating by 0.1 percentage points compared to the first three quarters, and outpacing goods retail sales by 0.9 percentage points [1] Group 3: New Consumption Trends - In October, sales of smart health devices rose by over 20%, smart wearable devices increased by approximately 4%, sales of certain first-level energy-efficient appliances grew by over 10%, and organic food sales increased by over 8% [1] Group 4: Rural vs Urban Consumption - Rural consumption is growing faster than urban consumption, with county-level consumption expanding and the lower-tier market showing strong vitality [2]